XAUUSD H1 Short TermGold Prices—Ahead of Key PCE Report
- Gold remains in a consolidation phase after last week’s sharp pullback, with traders weighing economic data.
Fundamental View:
- A strengthening U.S. dollar and rising Treasury yields have pressured prices, but recent dollar weakness—down 3.4% for the month—has helped stabilise gold near the $3,000 level. Safe-haven demand remains elevated amid economic uncertainty, particularly around U.S. tariff policies. Markets are closely watching the potential impact of new tariffs set to take effect on April 2, with a more aggressive stance likely pushing gold toward $3,100, while a softer approach may lead to a temporary dip below $3,000.
- Last week, the Fed held rates steady and projected two cuts for the year, reinforcing gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. Traders are now turning to Friday’s PCE inflation report— the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. A softer reading would likely fuel expectations of rate cuts, supporting gold, while a hotter-than-expected number could strengthen the dollar and pressure prices lower.
Technical View:
- Current price action suggests indecision, with gold trading at $3,027.49. Key support lies at $2,995 – $3,005, with a break below this range potentially triggering a move toward $2,930 – $2,940. The critical longer-term support remains at the 50-day moving average of $2,874.97.
- On the upside, a sustained move above $3,057.59 would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend, with targets at $3,100 and $3,150. As long as gold holds above $2,968.92, the bullish structure remains intact, and any pullbacks are likely to be short-lived.
