DeGRAM | GOLD broke the rising channel📊 Technical Analysis
● XAU printed a false break above the 3 400 wedge roof, then sliced back through the rising mid-channel, closing under the wedge base at 3 309 - a classic bull-trap that flips that band into resistance.
● Momentum has rolled over, and the break of July’s micro up-trend opens room to the broad triangle floor/May trend-pivot near 3 246; successive lower-highs since 24 Jul confirm bearish control.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Hot US Q2-GDP and sticky core-PCE lifted 2-yr yields to one-month highs, reviving the dollar bid, while cautious ECB guidance tempers euro gold demand.
✨ Summary
Sell 3 309-3 335; hold below 3 309 targets 3 246 ▶ 3 200. Invalidate on an H4 close above 3 366.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with a like. Thanks for your support!
GOLD trade ideas
Excellent re-Sell opportunities from #3,332.80 ResistanceAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "My position: I will continue re-Sells starting with #3,332.80 Resistance and my continuation will be re-Sell every High's on Gold unless Gold closes the market above #3,352.80 benchmark."
Firstly I have Sold Gold on #3,321.80 with my set of Selling orders and in addition I have added Sells at #3,318.80 / closing all on #3,312.80 / first line of wall of Supports ahead of #3,300.80 benchmark. Then I have planned to re-Sell strong on #3,332.80 with Double Lot and closed my order on #3,322.80 (#3,332.80 - #3,322.80) which delivered excellent results. I am making spectacular Profits from my key reversal zones.
Technical analysis: Gold is Trading within my predicted values however both sides are equally probable at the moment. Needless to mention, Price-action is on important Short-term crossroads. Since #3,300.80 psychological benchmark isn't invalidated even with DX on extended relief rally, now Bullish reversal is possible towards #3,342.80 first Resistance, then #3,352.80 mark Trading above the fractal. Also #3,320.80 - #3,332.80 Neutral Rectangle Trading is possible until I have a break-out.
My position: My break-out points on both sides are calculated and ready to be used for more Profits.
How to accurately grasp the gold trading opportunitiesGold was greatly affected by the positive non-farm payroll data, and it rose strongly, with the increase completely covering all the losses this week. The current gold trend has completely reversed the previous bull-short balance. After breaking through the 3300 level and rising to around 3355, it maintains strong upward momentum, and the possibility of further testing the 3360-3375 area cannot be ruled out. Due to the strong positive data, if everyone fails to chase the long position or set a breakout long position in time in the first wave of the market, the subsequent pullback opportunities may be relatively limited, so it is necessary to maintain an active strategy in operation. It is recommended to continue to be bullish when it retreats to the 3335-3320 area, and the upper target is the 3360-3375 pressure range.
Gold Market Holds Bearish Structure Below 3291Gold market continues to hold firm within the bearish channel, with 3291 acting as a supply zone, maintaining pressure down toward 3269. As long as this zone remains unbroken, bearish momentum stays in play.
🔍 Key Insight:
3291 = active supply resistance
3269 = short-term target if sentiment holds
follow for more insights , comment and boost idea
NFP Friday - XAUUSD Prediction - August 2025#NFP Friday + New Month 👇
- Still leaning bearish on TVC:GOLD
- New month = re-positioning flows
- Watching 3225–3250 zone (Fib 38/50 confluence)
- Clean pullback setup near Psy level & untested orders
News Prediction:
- Labor market still holding up, I’m thinking NFP prints closer to 130k–150k, not that 110k estimate
- Yes, tech & retail saw some layoffs, but not enough to tank the whole report
- Adapt if wrong, execute if right. No stress
#XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #Dollar #NFPFriday #XAUUSD #Gold #NFP #JobsReport #Dollar #Macro #Trading #MarketOutlook #NFPFriday
Gold Market Rejected at 3310 as Bearish Channel HoldsGold market faced rejection at 3310, failing to break above the bearish channel, as DXY strength continues to weigh on price action. The inability to sustain above key levels reflects ongoing bearish pressure, unless a clear break occurs.
🔍 Key Insight:
3310 acts as a short-term ceiling
DXY strength supports the bearish stance, follow for more insights coment and boost idea .
XAUUSD – Smart Money Sell Setup during New York Session | ICT St
Gold (XAUUSD) has just completed a classic liquidity grab above the London session highs, forming a potential Judas Swing as New York begins.
On the 4H timeframe, we clearly have a bearish BOS (Break of Structure), and price has returned to a Premium zone within a bearish FVG and OB (Order Block).
Today is NFP Friday, and after the Fed kept rates steady mid-week, we’re expecting high volatility.
Current price action has swept the overnight liquidity and is now reacting inside a Repricing Block, aligning perfectly with the NY Midnight Open level.
🎯 My Sell Plan (Live Execution):
Sell Limit: 3306.50
SL: 3317.50 (Above OB high)
TP1: 3281.20
TP2: 3268.50
TP3: 3253.90
🧠 Bias: Bearish
🕒 Session: New York
🧮 ADR: 43 pts
📉 Market Structure: Bearish
This setup follows the ICT methodology using time, liquidity, structure, and displacement.
If we break above 3317.50 with strong displacement, the idea becomes invalid.
Let's see if Smart Money takes it down into Friday’s close.
Gold rebound is weak, short below 3315
Gold remains weak, with multiple intraday rebounds failing to maintain momentum. The upper moving average continues to suppress the market, and the short-term market remains dominated by bears. Today, we are following the trend and taking a bearish stance. The key upside level is around 3315. If it reaches this level before the US market opens or if it peaks in the short term, we will short sell. The non-farm payroll data will be released today, and we will consider reversing our direction based on the situation after the data.
Gold prices have once again encountered resistance to their upward trend, and the volatile pattern continues. The gold price trend is trending lower highs, and today's low is expected to be lower than yesterday's. Therefore, our intraday short target could be 3268 or even lower, so it's crucial to seize the right entry point.
If you're new to the market, come to me. I'll teach you how to trade while you learn. If you're already in the market and struggling, come to me. I'll help you avoid repeating the same mistakes. If you've already experienced this market and are battered, come to me. I'm confident I can help you regain confidence. If you're stuck in a position, I'll develop a strategy tailored to your entry point. Because everyone's trapped positions are different, the solutions will vary, some suitable for conservative traders and others for aggressive ones. However, I can't offer a perfect answer to every situation. I suggest you bring your order with you. Once you contact me, I'll use the most appropriate method to resolve your situation and help you exit the market.
Specific Strategy
Short gold at 3315, stop loss at 3325, target at 3280
XAUUSD Gold Trading Strategy August 1, 2025
Yesterday's trading session, gold prices recovered to the 3315 area and then continued to decrease to the 3281 area. Currently, gold prices are fluctuating quite unpredictably due to the impact of tariff news and investor confidence.
Basic news: The Federal Reserve FED continues to maintain the federal funds benchmark interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%, in line with policy since 2025. Chairman Powell did not give any signal about the next interest rate cut on September 16 - 17.
Technical analysis: After falling sharply to the 3269 area, gold prices are showing signs of recovery. In the current downtrend channel, there has been a higher bottom than the bottom at H1. We can see that if the bullish pattern at H1 is confirmed, combined with the reversal candlestick appearing at H4, the possibility of gold bouncing back to reach the resistance area of 3330, even 3350 is completely possible. In the weekend trading session, we will wait at the support zones to trade.
Important price zones today: 3280 - 3285 and 3269 - 3274.
Today's trading trend: BUY.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY XAUUSD zone 3283 - 3285
SL 3280
TP 3288 - 3300 - 3310 - 3330.
Plan 2: BUY XAUSD zone 3269 - 3271
SL 3266
TP 3274 - 3284 - 3300 - 3320.
Wish you a safe, favorable and profitable trading day.🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰
XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar) Technical Analysis – 4H Char🔍 XAU/USD (Gold Spot vs US Dollar) Technical Analysis – 4H Chart
Based on my shared image from TradingView, here's a detailed analysis of the current XAU/USD market scenario:
---
🧩 Chart Type & Indicators Used
Timeframe: 4-Hour (H4)
Platform: TradingView
Indicators:
Ichimoku Cloud
Bollinger Bands (BB)
Support/Resistance zones
Trendlines
Price Action with Target Points Marked
---
📉 Current Market Structure
Price: ~$3,324 (Sell/Buy zone shown)
Overall Trend: Turning bearish in the short term.
Price Action:
Price has broken below an ascending trendline, suggesting a shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
The price is trading below the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing a bearish bias.
Failed retest of the cloud resistance zone (around 3,335–3,340), which now acts as a resistance.
---
🔻 Bearish Signals
1. Trendline Break:
The rising trendline support (mid-July to now) is broken.
This indicates a potential reversal from the previous bullish momentum.
2. Retest & Rejection:
Price attempted to retest the breakdown zone and was rejected from the 3,335–3,340 level.
3. Ichimoku Cloud Bearish Setup:
Price is clearly below the cloud.
Future cloud is bearish (red shaded).
Chikou Span (lagging line) is below price candles and cloud.
---
🎯 Targets
First Target Point: ~3,300
This is the next horizontal support level (near recent lows).
Final Target Point: ~3,270
Stronger support zone and measured move from breakdown.
---
🛡 Resistance Zone
Immediate Resistance: 3,335–3,340
Stronger Resistance: 3,370
---
📌 Conclusion
The XAU/USD 4H chart shows a bearish breakout below the rising channel, with confirmation from Ichimoku and price rejection at cloud resistance. The market is targeting 3,300 as the first support, and if that breaks, 3,270 will likely follow.
---
✅ Strategy Suggestion (if trading):
Bias: Short/Sell
Entry: After a weak pullback or retest near 3,330–3,335
Targets:
TP1: 3,300
TP2: 3,270
Stop Loss: Above 3,345 or near 3,350 zone
Let me know if you'd like this in simpler terms or want me to track the next setup.
XAU/USD) Bearish Trend Read The captionSMC Trading point update
Technical analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour timeframe, using a combination of trend lines, EMA, RSI, and price structure.
---
Technical Breakdown:
1. Price Structure:
Gold is forming a rising channel (black trend lines) within a short-term uptrend, but this is happening below the 200 EMA, which generally indicates bearish momentum.
A resistance zone is highlighted near the top of the channel, suggesting sellers might defend this level.
2. Key Level:
Resistance Level: Around 3,330–3,335 zone.
Target Point: Price is expected to break down from the channel and reach support levels near 3,284.35 and 3,282.51.
3. Moving Average (EMA 200):
Current price is below the 200 EMA (3,348.42), reinforcing a bearish bias.
4. RSI (14):
RSI is near 52.58, indicating neutral-to-slightly-overbought territory. No strong divergence is visible, but RSI is not confirming a bullish trend either.
5. Projection (Hand-drawn Path):
The drawn path shows a potential breakdown from the channel with a bearish impulse targeting lower support zones.
Mr SMC Trading point
---
Trade Idea Summary:
Bias: Bearish
Confirmation Needed: Break below channel support
Entry Zone: Near the resistance of the rising channel (~3,330–3,335)
Target Zone: 3,284.35 – 3,282.51
Invalidation: Sustained break above 3,348 (above EMA 200)
plesse support boost 🚀 this analysis)
XAU/USD 01 August 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on three separate occasions which has now formed a triple top, this is a bearish reversal pattern and proving this zone is a strong supply level. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
H4 Timeframe - Price has failed to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
GOLD REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE AFTER U.S. INFLATION DATA📊 Market Overview:
Gold is trading around $3294, down from $3311 earlier after U.S. Core PCE and Employment Cost Index came in as expected — reinforcing the Fed's hawkish stance. A stronger dollar and rising Treasury yields continue to weigh on gold.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key resistance: $3302 – $3305
• Nearest support: $3285 – $3275
• EMA09 (H1): Price is below the 9-period EMA → short-term trend remains bearish
• Candlestick / volume / momentum: After the sharp drop, price is consolidating between $3293–$3298 with low volume. Failure to break above $3302 may trigger further downside. RSI near 45 suggests room for more selling.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may continue to decline in the short term if it fails to reclaim $3302 and the dollar remains strong through the Asian and European sessions.
💡 Suggested Trade Setup:
🔻 SELL XAU/USD: $3296 – $3298
🎯 TP: $3280 / $3275
❌ SL: $3305
🔺 BUY XAU/USD: $3275 – $3278 (if reversal candle appears)
🎯 TP: $3295
❌ SL: $3270
Gold (XAU/USD) on the 1‑hour timeframeGold (XAU/USD) on the 1‑hour timeframe
Chart Structure & Bias
* Price remains trapped in a **rising channel** (\~\$3,328–3,333), pressing against resistance near **\$3,340–3,345**.
* Short-term momentum is bearish: both EMA 7 and EMA 21 sit above current price, with declining volume signaling weakening buyer strength.
* Overall trend leans neutral‑to‑bearish until market clears key zones decisively.
Trade Scenarios
**Bearish Breakdown (Preferred)**
* **Trigger:** Break and close below channel support (\~\$3,326).
* **Targets:** Initial drop toward **\$3,320**, then **\$3,300**, and possibly lower if momentum intensifies.
* **Invalidation:** Price pushes back above **\$3,333–3,335**, negating bearish structure.
**Bullish Breakout (Conditional)**
* **Trigger:** Clean breakout and sustained close above **\$3,342–3,345**.
* **Targets:** Upward stretch toward **\$3,355–3,360**, and if strong, **\$3,367–3,375+**.
* **Invalidation:** Fails to hold structure—retesting from above back beneath **\~\$3,338**.
Macro Drivers & Market Conditions
* Caution prevails pre‑Fed decision and ADP / GDP releases—market awaits cues on interest rate direction.
* Safe‑haven demand has softened as global trade sentiment improves, while U.S. dollar strength continues to cap upside in gold.
* Analysts favor **sell‑on‑rise positioning**, bumping up potential for controlled pullbacks.
Verdict
Gold is consolidating in a tight upward channel, showing short-term bearish pressure. The **bearish breakdown scenario holds the edge** unless price convincingly clears above **\$3,345** on strong volume, which could flip bias. A confirmed break below **\$3,326** sets the stage for downward moves toward **\$3,300** or lower.
Technical Analysis of Gold Chart (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour TimeframeTechnical Analysis of Gold Chart (XAU/USD) – 4-Hour Timeframe
Following the heavy selling pressure seen in recent days, the price of gold has now reached a zone that has repeatedly shown reactions in the past. This green-colored support area can currently play a decisive role in the market’s next move.
Price Movement Outlook:
Scenario 1 – Bullish Correction Move:
If buyers manage to take control of the market in this zone, it is expected that gold will gradually pass through intermediate resistance levels and first enter the medium-term resistance area. If momentum is maintained, the price could then move toward higher highs. This move can be interpreted as a technical correction against the recent bearish wave and may attract short-term traders until reaching strong supply zones.
Scenario 2 – Continuation of the Downtrend:
Conversely, a confirmed break of this support with high volume and strong bearish candles could lead to a further decline in price toward previous lows. In this case, the blue-colored area at the lowest part of the chart would serve as the next demand zone.
Key Point:
The market is currently in a decision-making phase. Confirmation of reactions at this support area is extremely important in determining the market’s future direction. Therefore, entering the market prematurely without waiting for confirmation of price behavior could involve high risk.
Bullish Sentiment Returns to Gold?Hello everyone, what are your thoughts on XAUUSD?
From a technical perspective, XAUUSD has just retested its long-term ascending trendline and formed a bullish reaction candle, suggesting that buying pressure may be returning.
Recently, a survey of 206 investors revealed that market sentiment remains optimistic, with 66% expecting gold prices to continue rising, 19% predicting a decline, and 15% anticipating a sideways market.
What do you think? Share your opinion in the comments!