XAUUSD - Potential Bearish SetupWe're currently reacting off a mid-range POI after a CHoCH and BOS confirmation from the upside.
Price tapped into an internal POI and showed minor bullish structure.
Expecting a deeper pullback into a secondary POI area (gray box) before continuation down.
Short-term liquidity sweep is possible before major move.
Clean target levels marked based on imbalance and previous structure.
Extrem POI: Last push before drop – high probability supply.
High Prob POI: Origin of last BOS – could react again.
Target: LTF liquidity and imbalance fill zone.
📉 Bias: Bearish
🕐 Timeframe: 30m
⚠️ Wait for confirmation entry near the upper POI zone.
GOLD trade ideas
Gold back within my Neutral RectangleTechnical analysis: Gold maintains Selling sentiment (remember the cycle I mentioned regarding #14-day symmetry for aggressive takedown / Traders are witnessing it) from yesterday’s session Hourly 4 chart’s first Support break, however the pace has slowed down as Gold is already near #3,288.80 - #3,292.80 well known Support zone due Hourly 4 chart on critically Overbought condition near #3,327.80 local High's. Gold is isolated within Descending Channel formation and if there wasn’t DX on parallel decline, Gold would be significantly Lower under the circumstances. I highlighted that only catalyst which can revive the Price-action and kick-start the relief rally is on Fundamental side. The Hourly 4 chart’s indicators were showcasing that Gold was Overbought and most of my Intra-day pointers were about to make a Bearish roll-over as I believed that I should start preparing ourselves for a slight pullback (Short-term trend stays Bearish though however there will be Bull spikes certainly towards #3,327.80 - #3,332.80 local Resistance zone). Next Resistance is priced at #3,312.80 / break of it might extend the uptrend towards #3,327.80 Resistance in extension. Gold has invalidated solid Ascending Channel on Hourly 4 chart and if you recall, delivered #2 additional Higher High’s (my chart’s explanation that Gold always delivers #3 Lower Low extensions ahead of full scale reversal, so practically I have one more Higher High’s to expect according to the cycle).
My position: My break-out zones are intact as in withih my previous remarks as I will keep operating within #3,288.80 - #3,227.80 Neutral Rectangle as long as it lasts. If #3,288.80 - #3,275.80 gives away, #3,262.80 - #3,268.80 is zone to monitor.
The end of the triple cycle faces a big test of data
Today is the closing of the monthly, weekly and daily lines, and the PCE data will be released, so the market volatility may increase. Looking at the four-hour level of gold, the downward trend line remains intact. As time goes by, the suppression level has also come to around 3345. In view of the fact that the rebound of 3245 at 3330 is blocked and moves downward, today's Asia-Europe session strategy focuses on the continuation of the downward trend; at the hourly level, the last high point of 3365 has been trading below the trend line since the decline. Yesterday's high broke the trend line, but today's opening fell below 3308, so the short-term trend has returned to the short position again. Therefore, today is still bearish, short-selling ideas.
The specific operation is to intervene in short positions below 3310, with a short-term target of around 3278; wait for a rebound near 3288 and short again to look at the target of 3245; mid-term operations can directly focus on the 3245 position, followed by the 3200 mark.
XAUUSD 15MThanks for the second chart. Here's a breakdown of what this image shows:
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📉 Chart Summary:
Instrument: Gold Spot (XAU/USD)
Broker/Exchange: OANDA
Timeframe: 15-minute chart
Current Price: ~3,293.970 USD
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🧠 Trade Setup Analysis:
Entry Point:
Clearly marked near 3,300.000 USD
Indicates a short (sell) trade taken at a resistance level after price bounced up and started declining.
Target:
Labeled as “Target Successful”
Appears to be around the 3,255.000 – 3,260.000 USD zone.
Suggests the short trade reached its take-profit level successfully.
Trade Direction:
This is a bearish setup.
Arrows show the expectation of price dropping from the resistance back down to the target zone.
Price Action Confirmation:
Before the entry, we see a reversal pattern from the high.
The drop afterward confirmed the setup was effective.
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✅ Summary:
This chart demonstrates a clean resistance-based sell trade on XAU/USD that hit its take-profit (TP) target. The purple arrow highlights the price movement downward, reinforcing the visual confirmation of a successful short trade execution.
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Would you like a comparison between this gold trade setup and the Bitcoin one you previously shared (e.g., risk/reward, timing, effectiveness)?
DeGRAM | GOLD reached the resistance line📊 Technical Analysis
● Twin rejections inside the 3 300-3 340 supply, exactly where the purple retest line and rising-channel ceiling intersect, have carved a lower high and completed a bearish flag.
● RSI confirms negative divergence and the candle body is back below the 3 284 pivot, favouring a slide toward the channel median at 3 172 and, if broken, the floor/September swing low near 3 100.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Upbeat US second-estimate GDP and stronger durable-goods orders pushed 2-yr Treasury yields above 5 %, raising gold’s carry cost, while WGC logs a sixth straight week of ETF outflows and the PBoC reportedly paused reserve buying in May.
✨ Summary
Short below 3 300; objectives 3 172 → 3 100. Invalidate on a sustained close above 3 350.
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GOLD Bearish Breakout! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GOLD made a bearish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 3285$ which also
Seems to have been a neckline
Of the small H&S pattern so
We are locally bearish biased
And we will be expecting a
Further bearish move down
Sell!
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Will Trump's Tariffs Propel Gold Past 3,500 ? Again ? On May 23rd's U.S. trading session, Trump's tariff announcements on the EU and Apple roiled markets like a tempest 🌪️. He proposed a staggering 50% tariff on EU products starting from June 1st, citing unfair trade practices. Meanwhile, he threatened Apple with a 25% tariff if iPhones sold in the U.S. weren't manufactured domestically.
This sent gold prices soaring sky - high 🚀. As a reliable safe - haven, gold spiked as investors, deeply worried about the potential global economic impacts, rushed to safeguard their wealth. The 3280 support level for gold, which had been holding firm in the preceding days, became even more crucial as the upward momentum strengthened, like a sturdy anchor in stormy waters ⚓.
If the tariff issue remains unresolved and tensions continue to simmer between the U.S., the EU, and major corporations like Apple, the upward trajectory of gold prices is likely to persist. Analysts predict a good chance it could break the 3,500 mark, as if a new peak is waiting to be conquered 🏔️. Tariffs disrupt global supply chains and raise U.S. inflation fears, driving investors to gold for protection against economic and currency risks, much like sailors seeking a safe port in a typhoon 🌊.
⚡️⚡️⚡️ XAUUSD ⚡️⚡️⚡️
🚀 Buy@ 3340 - 3360
🚀 TP 3400 - 3450
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for May 26Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3350-3400, support below 3284
Four-hour chart resistance 3350, support below 3322
One-hour chart resistance 3350, support below 3322
Gold news analysis: Last Friday (May 23), spot gold continued its strong rise in the US market. After a technical retracement from a two-week high in the previous trading day, it attracted bargain-hunting buying again, and the trading price remained above $3350. Fundamental factors continue to provide upward momentum for precious metals. Previously, Moody's rating agency downgraded the US credit rating from the highest level "Aaa" last week, and the weak 20-year Treasury auction results on Wednesday showed that the market demand for US assets weakened. These factors, combined with the uncertainty of the US economic outlook, continue to suppress the US dollar and provide support for gold denominated in US dollars. .
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the lower support is the 3284 level daily line support near the four-hour 3322, and the upper pressure is the four-hour level 3350 level suppression. The short-term long and short strength watershed is the 3284 level. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to buy at a low level.
Buy: 3322near SL: 3317
Buy: 3330near SL: 3322
GOLD Gold Correlation with DXY, 10-Year Bond Yields, Bond Prices, Interest Rate Differentials, and Carry Trade Advantage
1. Gold vs. DXY (Dollar Index)
Typical Inverse Relationship: Gold prices generally move inversely to the US dollar (DXY). A weaker dollar (DXY↓) makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers, boosting demand, while a stronger dollar (DXY↑) pressures gold prices .
Exception in Crises: During extreme market stress (e.g., 2008 financial crisis), gold and the dollar may rise together as both act as safe havens .
Recent Context (2025): The inverse correlation weakened, with gold showing resilience despite dollar strength due to geopolitical risks and central bank buying .
2. Gold vs. 10-Year Bond Yields
Real Yields Drive Gold: Gold has a strong inverse relationship with real interest rates (nominal yield - inflation). Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, boosting prices .
Example: From 2008–2012 and 2019–2021, gold surged as real yields turned negative amid quantitative easing .
Recent Divergence: In 2022–2023, gold held steady despite a 270bps rise in 10-year real yields, driven by central bank accumulation and inflation hedging .
3. Gold vs. Bond Prices
Indirect Link via Yields: Bond prices and yields are inversely related. Rising bond prices (yields↓) often correlate with gold strength, while falling prices (yields↑) pressure gold .
Safe-Haven Overlap: Both gold and Treasuries are considered safe assets, but their correlation is weaker during stagflation (gold outperforms bonds) .
4. Interest Rate Differentials and Carry Trade Impact
Carry Trade Mechanics: Investors borrow low-yield currencies (e.g., JPY) to invest in high-yield currencies (e.g., USD), boosting demand for the latter and strengthening the DXY .
Example: A 4.25% spread between AUD (4.35%) and JPY (0.10%) incentivizes AUD/JPY carry trades, affecting currency valuations and gold indirectly .
Impact on Gold: A stronger dollar (from carry trades) typically pressures gold, but narrowing rate differentials (e.g., Fed cuts) can reverse this dynamic .
Key Exceptions and Recent Trends
Policy Divergence:
The Fed’s aggressive 2022–2023 rate hikes (10-year yields↑) did not suppress gold, highlighting the role of geopolitical demand and de-dollarization trends .
Real Rates vs. Nominal Yields:
Gold’s 2025 rally to $3,500+ occurred despite elevated nominal yields, as negative real rates (-1.2% after inflation) supported demand .
Central Bank Influence:
Record central bank gold purchases (1,081 tonnes in 2024) decoupled gold from traditional drivers like the DXY .
Summary Table
Factor Relationship with Gold Key Drivers & Exceptions
DXY ↑ Typically ↓ (inverse) Exceptions: Risk-off events (both rise)
10-Year Yields ↑ ↓ (if real yields rise) Real yields matter more than nominal rates
Bond Prices ↑ ↑ (yields↓, gold吸引力↑) Weakens during stagflation
Widening Rate Spreads Indirectly ↓ (strengthens DXY) Carry trades amplify USD demand
Conclusion
Gold’s price dynamics are shaped by a complex interplay of real yields, DXY movements, and carry trade flows, with notable deviations during crises or structural shifts (e.g., central bank buying). While the inverse correlation with the dollar and real yields remains foundational, recent years underscore gold’s evolving role as a geopolitical and institutional asset. Traders should prioritize monitoring real interest rates, central bank policies, and risk sentiment to navigate gold’s trajectory effectively.
GOLD Short 29/05Gold boosted above the previous lower high seemingly breaking structure. However I believe this was just a liquidity grab taking stops from above the right shoulder. Still anticipating price to move down. Usd rates not lowered. Trade war simmers as Trump 'not allowed' to set tariffs. Usd strength should continue.
XAUUSD - Will Gold Continue to Fall?!Gold is trading in its ascending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, between the EMA200 and EMA50. I expect the direction ahead for gold to be bullish and if it breaks the downtrend line, we can look for buying opportunities.
The U.S. dollar rose following a decision by the United States Court of International Trade to revoke tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. Since the Trump administration, there have been continual developments regarding tariffs, and this latest ruling, which blocks Trump’s retaliatory tariffs, has stirred uncertainty and confusion over its legal validity. The ruling also triggered a correction in gold’s upward trend.
According to the U.S. Constitution, the power to impose tariffs officially resides with Congress. However, since 1962, much of this authority has been delegated to the executive branch. Courts have historically upheld this delegation to the president, but this recent judgment casts doubt on the legitimacy of such executive powers.
The pressing question now is whether Trump can circumvent the ruling. Could he potentially ignore it or take counteraction? Any move by Trump in response would undoubtedly ripple through the financial markets.
Goldman Sachs has characterized the court’s decision as a new obstacle for Trump’s trade strategy, though it notes the ruling only applies to part of the tariffs.Analysts at the firm believe Trump may find legal or procedural means to work around the court’s decision, possibly introducing new strategies to maintain his tariff agenda.
Citing customs data, ING commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey reported that despite record-high prices, China’s gold imports reached their highest level in eleven months last month. Since the beginning of the year, gold prices have surged by more than 20%.
Total gold imports climbed to 127.5 metric tons, marking a 73% increase from the previous month. This sharp rise followed the People’s Bank of China’s issuance of new import quotas to select commercial banks in April. With a year-to-date gain exceeding 20%, gold hit an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce in April. Key drivers of this rally include geopolitical risk and sustained purchases by central banks.
In the broader metals sector, China’s refined copper production in April reached a new monthly record, rising 9% year-on-year to 1.25 million metric tons, even as processing fees remained low. Meanwhile, lead production declined by 1% from the previous year to 664,000 tons, while zinc output edged up by 0.3% to 576,000 tons.
According to the International Aluminium Institute, global aluminum production in April remained flat compared to the prior month, averaging 201,100 metric tons per day. However, on a year-over-year basis, output increased by 2.24%.
XAUUAD BUY CHARTThe chart you've shared is a 30-minute candlestick chart of CFDs on Gold (US$/OZ), with key elements marked for a potential trade setup. Here's a breakdown of the key points:
Chart Analysis:
1. Highlighted Zones (Yellow Boxes):
Bottom Yellow Zone (~3,270): Likely a demand/support zone. Price previously reversed upward from here.
Top Yellow Zone (~3,300): Likely a supply/resistance zone. This is the potential target area.
2. Blue Arrows:
The initial downward arrow shows a strong bearish move.
The subsequent upward arrow represents a bullish recovery, suggesting a potential long trade setup.
3. Trade Setup:
Entry: Around 3,284 (current price level).
Take Profit (TP): 3,300.325 — aligned with the top yellow resistance zone.
Stop Loss (SL): Just below the lower yellow zone (~3,273.597).
4. Risk-Reward Ratio:
The trade appears to have a favorable risk-reward ratio of roughly 2:1 or better, given the size of the green (profit) vs. red (loss) zones.
5. Volume: Somewhat elevated during the reversal and buildup phases, indicating decent participation on the bullish side.
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Possible Trade Interpretation:
This looks like a bullish continuation/reversal setup, possibly based on a demand zone bounce with a target near previous resistance. The trader may be betting on continued bullish momentum.
Would you like a more detailed technical analysis or help calculating exact RR, pip difference, or backtesting the strategy?
5/30 Gold Analysis and Trading SignalsGood morning everyone!
Yesterday, we successfully executed short at 3290 and long at 3250, and also entered the 3316–3328 short zone near the close. All signals were hit, and profits were solid ✅.
📉 Technical Outlook:
The 1-hour chart remains in a clear bearish trend, indicating that this pullback is not yet complete.
Initial support at 3296 is very likely to break
Focus shifts to 3278 support, though it appears technically weak
If price hits 3278, a minor bounce is expected, but it's likely just a retracement, not a reversal
🗞 Fundamental Watch:
The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index will be released during the U.S. session today.
Market reaction is expected to be similar to yesterday’s initial jobless claims — possibly triggering short-term moves, but not changing the broader trend.
📈 Trade Plan for Today:
📉 Sell in the 3316–3328 zone (key resistance)
📈 Buy in the 3238–3221 zone (key support area)
🔁 Scalp/flexible trading zones:
3303 / 3288 / 3276 / 3265 / 3252 / 3238
Stick to proper risk management, and stay alert during U.S. data releases.
Trade with the trend and close the week strong!
Additionally, on the 30-minute chart, gold appears to be forming a potential inverse head and shoulders pattern. If this pattern completes and breaks the neckline successfully, the price may surge toward the 3336–3352 area, or even up to 3360.
For those considering short positions, it’s crucial to control position size and avoid entering too early. Try to wait for price action to reach higher resistance levels before making a move. Don’t worry about missing a perfect entry — even if one trade is missed, it won’t affect your overall profitability for the week.
The market always offers opportunities. Stay calm, stick to your strategy, and remember: consistency and patience lead to long-term success.
[20250526] Gold - True Bull or Liquidity Trap This Week?Key Dynamic Levels Guide: Previous Grey/Black, Green/Magenta, and Red/Blue dynamic levels mark important zones where Smart Money (SM) has positioned itself. These levels are crucial liquidity pools, as support and resistance (S/R) frequently revisit these zones. Check their values by hovering your mouse for guidance before proceeding.
4H key-level confluence can be refer in published Idea titled: Gold – Structural Bull Bias - One Leg Down Still Anticipated? refer the related post --->
📊 Weekly Market Intent – Gold Analysis
Gold has recently tested the 3360+ zone, showing renewed bullish momentum. However, system-based structure mapping suggests that this move might still be part of a broader setup—rather than a confirmed breakout.
📌 Market Structure & Key Levels
A possible ABCDE triangle structure remains in play, where price is either concluding Wave-C or initiating Wave-D. If this formation holds, a pullback toward 3044–2950 could materialize before Wave-E completes and resumes the larger bullish trend.
The market also aligns with a potential 3-Drive bearish trap, where recent highs attract late buyers before deeper liquidity moves unfold.
🔹 Key Dynamic Levels (4H Confluence):
Bull VAH (Grey Line): 3317.52 – Key retracement level in a bullish environment.
Bull POC (Light Green): 3313.55 – Defines bullish sentiment zone.
Blue Line (Bull Bias Limit): 3254.26 – A breach would indicate deeper pullback risk.
Red Line (Bear Bias Limit): 3369.81 – A decisive break suggests bullish continuation.
Liquidity Levels: 3401.21 (upper target) | 3212.57 (lower target).
🧐 Market Sentiment & Next Move
Current sentiment indicates bullish bias with bear presence, as the market attempts lower support levels before a bullish continuation.
Bullish Continuation: Price moving past 3366 could signal a breakout, with unconfirmed top resistance levels remaining untested before further upside.
Bearish Presence: Below 3313.55, sell-side pressure could intensify. Below the bull bias limit (3254.26), deeper downside traction suggests a short-cycle bearish move until a rebound occurs above the newly formed dynamic bear bias limit.
🧠 Reversal / Invalidation Conditions
Bullish Strength Holds: Trading above 3253.57, with unsuccessful bear attempts, suggests bullish sentiment remains intact.
Bearish Shift: A failed support at 3290 and successful retest reinforce downside pressure. Momentum and volume remain key for validating the shift.
📌 System-Based Order Limits
Daily Order Limits
Buy: 3350.95 | SL: 3281.20 | TP: 3399.82
Sell: 3302.39 | SL: 3372.14 | TP: 3253.52
Weekly Order Limits
Buy: 3335.02 | SL: 3192.49 | TP: 3434.89
Sell: 3235.80 | SL: 3378.33 | TP: 3135.93
Monthly Order Limits
Buy: 3374.47 | SL: 3097.33 | TP: 3568.65
Sell: 3181.54 | SL: 3458.68 | TP: 2987.36
📌 Final Insight
Market intent unfolds dynamically, and structure-driven decision-making ensures anticipation zones remain valuable references.
📢 Gawai Festival Notice: As I’ll be away for the season’s harvest festival, I may not provide further updates on next shifts. However, this weekly confluence bias should guide traders in navigating market ranges effectively.
Stay disciplined, wait for liquidity validation, and let Smart Money footprints lead the way.
Wishing all traders a profitable week ahead! See you next week. 🚀
Gold (4H) – Still in Accumulation
🔍 Price Action
– Failed to make a higher high after retracing into the 4H OTE zone around 3 265-3 285.
– Closed back at 3 325, right at resistance, signaling indecision.
🎯 Key Scenarios
🚀 Bullish Trigger : Hold above 3 325 → builds energy for a breakout up through the supply zone toward 3 365-3 380.
⏳ Further Pullback : Rejection at 3 325 → deeper retrace toward the OTE low (~3 260) before resuming the uptrend.
🌐 Macro Watch
– US inflation prints & Fed speakers this week.
– Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, which could keep safe-haven bids under gold.
✅ Takeaway
Gold is coiling-watch 3 325 as the pivot: failure there means a deeper shakeout; hold means a powerful leg higher !