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XAU/USD - Gold Weekly Analysis(4th Nov 2024 to 8th Nov 2024)XAU/USD - Gold Weekly Analysis(4th Nov 2024 to 8th Nov 2024) Weekly recap: To recap last week, our main focus on Gold was during the second half of the week with United States data such as NFP, Core PCE, and Unemployment rate. Gold during the first half of the week has rallied to new ATHs at 2788 KL. On an economic standpoint, we had US JOLTs Jobs come out below expectations and below previous we had anticipations of poor / weaker JOLTs jobs data = Increases in rate cut bets for dollar bears and risk asset bulls. After peaking new ATHs and opening up the second half of the week we seen multiple FTB above with EOM coming up and US data of healthy jobless claims coming out. We seen a bearish run on gold due reasoning stated which lead to some profit taking moves from ATHs. Reminder on Gold: Gold is still HTF bullish however, We know that Gold likes to retest ATHs / Near ATHs. Keep in mind we just opened up a new month, and with elections right around the corner. We could see PBs / Deeper PBs to better demanded prices on Gold before jumping into buys. Trade ideas for the upcoming week: Bullish Bias: If gold breaks above 2740 KL I would look for short scalps to 2757.685 KL and if price holds above i would look for scale in more buys to retest back into near ATHs at 2779 KL. Bearish Bias: If gold pushs up on the intraday timeframe and FTB above KL 2757.685 KL and holds below I would look for HRHR sells at 2757.685 KL to 2715 KL and lower. If gold breaks below 2732 KL i would look for sells to 2715 KL and lower. If gold pushes up to 2779 KL and fails to break above I would look for sells to retest better demanded prices at 2715 KL and lower. Our Focus this week from the economical calendar: In terms of economic events this week we have BOE and Fed rate decisions in focus to start out the new business month with US elections around the corner. We also have important data such as services PMI for major countries and other reports through the week. 1 - Monday - Presidential Elections 2 - Tuesday - PMI 3 - Thursday - Initial Jobless Claims, FED Rate Decision Daily Reminder: -Caution- Stay Smart, Trade safe, follow your trading plan, follow your risk management plan, focus on long term vision, keep emotions out and avoid crashing your account.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by KamauRemmers
Gold's rising momentum continues unabated, continue to focus on As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold is often favored during periods of geopolitical turmoil. So far this year, gold prices have risen 35% and are expected to record their best annual performance since 1979. The intensified conflict between Israel and Lebanon has led to tensions, further boosting market demand for gold. Israel's recent air strikes have caused a large number of civilian casualties, attracting widespread attention and condemnation from the international community. The Lebanese Prime Minister said that the two sides may reach a ceasefire agreement in the next few days. Although this news may ease short-term tensions, market concerns about the future situation remain. The release of US third-quarter economic data showed that GDP grew 2.8% month-on-month, and consumer spending grew 3.7% at the fastest rate in a year and a half. Despite the strong economic performance, inflation has slowed, with the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rising only 2.2%. These data provide new clues to the Fed's policy path. The market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting next week. Despite strong economic growth, gold remains the first choice for investors in an uncertain environment. As the election approaches, the market is full of doubts about the future direction of US economic policies, and the safe-haven demand for gold may rise further. The supply and demand of gold also affects the price. Uncertainty in the global economy has prompted investors to increase their allocation to gold, especially in a low-interest rate environment, where the attractiveness of gold as an interest-free asset has increased. At the same time, the loose policies of central banks around the world continue to support gold prices. In response to the economic slowdown, many central banks have generally adopted measures such as interest rate cuts and quantitative easing, which has further boosted demand for gold. On Wednesday, it hit a record high of $2,789.89 per ounce. On Wednesday, mainly driven by the uncertainty of the US presidential election and geopolitical tensions, investors' demand for safe-haven assets increased significantly. Gold hit a record high again on Wednesday. Today, investors continue to pay attention to the 1-hour support area below 2,778, and go long on gold after the correction stabilizes. Thank you for your likes, thank you
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Yuliya1l11
BEAR TRAP! - PULLBACK - 3000We've seen gold demand increase in China despite price showing rejection just under 2800 (at 2791). US Elections uncertainty is what's causing smart money to secure profits for now, hedging with short positions to compensate possible sell-off. Long-term trend is your friend: BULLISH. No US presidential candidate is going to save the world from what's happening, and, sadly, is only going to get worse... FED rates are starting to drop TOO MUCH TOO FAST. .. and that has only and always led to a recession and a big correction in the markets. The US bank unrealized LOSSES are 7% HIGHER than the 2008 housing bubble. The US stock market's greed indicator is HIGHER than before the 2008 collapse. ... We could go on with a bunch of economic, geopolitical, social, and humanitarian statistics, that are only pointing south for the world's health and stability. Gold has always and will always be the true product of value on the planet and it has finally broken through to its true worth in the market; which, by the way, is WAY MORE than just $3,000 per Oz. Do NOT fall for the pull-back, and buy the dip to what's only getting started. ... I am not a financial advisor. Every post I make is for my personal use with educational purposes. You are responsible for your own trading decisions. Trading the financial markets involves a high risk of loosing all of your money.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by PersaGold
GOLD H8 AnalysisGold printed an all time high on 30th October this year as the bullish trend continues. Something to notice is the divergence between what price is doing and what the MACD is doing. There's a higher high in price (most recently) with a lower high in the MACD. This is a potential sign of weakness in the buying strength. This could be temporary as the market begins a natural correction or could be the start of a much bigger monthly correction. If there are any sell setups that meet your strategy rules then the trendline could be a possible target to think about.
FUSIONMARKETS:XAUUSD
by FusionMarkets
XAUUSD Gold Approaching Critical Turning Point Elliott Wave Analysis: Extended Subwaves and Final Leg In this chart, the Elliott Wave structure appears to be at the latter stages of a complex Wave 5. The following points summarize the current wave count and structure: Wave V (5th Wave Completion): The market is nearing the completion of Wave V in the higher-degree structure, which consists of five smaller waves (denoted as 1 through 5). The upper resistance zones (around 2,750 - 2,779) signal the end of the impulsive move and the onset of a potential correction. Wave (5) is subdivided into minor sub-waves, with the final minor sub-wave likely pushing the price slightly higher before reversing. Corrective ABC Pattern Expected: Post Wave V, a corrective ABC pattern is anticipated. The chart already shows the ABC structure, and the final leg C could soon begin. The corrective structure might target levels near 2,605 - 2,653, as indicated by the Fibonacci retracement levels (50% at 2,653.535 and 61.8% at 2,649.894). Price Targets and Fibonacci Levels: The Fibonacci levels between 2,605 and 2,653 act as significant retracement zones, providing a roadmap for potential price pullbacks once the 5th wave completes. A price correction to these levels could confirm the start of the ABC correction phase. Resistance Levels to Watch: Key resistance remains around 2,750.091 and 2,779, indicating a potential topping zone for the final wave push. If the market fails to push past these levels, it would reinforce the corrective outlook. Wyckoff Analysis: Distribution and Signs of Weakness In conjunction with Elliott Wave, the Wyckoff Method emphasizes market psychology and supply/demand dynamics. The following insights are derived from Wyckoff's perspective: Upthrust (UT) in Phase B: The chart identifies a potential Upthrust (UT) in Phase B of a Wyckoff Distribution. This marks the final push higher before supply begins to exceed demand, typically leading to a price reversal. The distribution phase is a period when large market participants offload their positions, leading to increased selling pressure as the market tops out. Break of Structure (BOS) and Signs of Weakness (SOW): Multiple Breaks of Structure (BOS) indicate a waning bullish momentum, as prices begin to struggle to maintain higher highs. The Sign of Weakness (SOW) noted on the chart further emphasizes the potential for a bearish reversal, as this is an early signal that supply is overcoming demand. This supports the Elliott Wave view that a correction is imminent. Creek and Testing: The Wyckoff Creek represents a major price trend, and failure to hold above it could result in a return to lower levels, potentially retesting the breakout levels around 2,650. The chart’s suggestion of a Secondary Test (ST) in the distribution phase indicates the market is testing previous highs to assess the strength of the resistance. Short-Term and Medium-Term Outlook Final Upward Push: There may still be a minor upward push as Wave V completes. Expect price action to challenge the 2,750-2,779 resistance zone before reversing. Corrective Phase Likely: A correction is likely to unfold over the next 2 weeks, targeting the 2,605-2,653 zone. This aligns with both Elliott Wave and Wyckoff’s distribution phase indicators. The corrective move could evolve into a larger ABC correction over the coming weeks. Key Support Levels: Should the market correct, the 2,653.535 (50% retracement) and 2,649.894 (61.8% retracement) levels will serve as the first significant support areas. Deeper retracements could target 2,605.868 or even lower levels in case of strong selling pressure, with the 2,421.241 level acting as a major historical support. Conclusion: Both Elliott Wave Theory and the Wyckoff Method align to suggest that the current bullish momentum is losing steam. Traders should watch for a potential top around 2,750 - 2,779, followed by a corrective phase that may take the market back to the 2,600-2,650 area. Short-term opportunities may still exist for upside movement, but the medium-term outlook suggests downside risk as the market enters a correction.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
3
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Correction Near CompletionElliott Wave Analysis The chart appears to be utilizing Elliott Wave Theory, which breaks down market movements into impulsive and corrective waves. Here's how it plays out: Impulsive Wave (1)-(5): The first wave count indicates that XAU/USD completed an impulsive five-wave structure (labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5). In Elliott Wave Theory, impulsive waves align with the primary trend direction. This likely represents the upward movement, suggesting that the broader trend for gold has been bullish over the last few trading days. Corrective Wave A-B-C: After the impulsive wave, the market appears to be entering a corrective phase, labeled as Wave A-B-C. Corrective waves typically move against the main trend, so this correction is likely part of a retracement before another impulsive wave could develop. In the short term, a potential Wave C (the third wave of correction) could unfold, which typically retraces a portion of the impulsive move. This means that a temporary pullback in XAU/USD prices is expected. Break of Structure (BOS) The chart highlights a Break of Structure (BOS), which is a key price level where the market shows a significant reversal or shift in trend. This BOS likely aligns with key levels of support or resistance being broken, suggesting that sellers might have temporarily gained control, causing a retracement or consolidation. BOS on a High Timeframe (H): This could indicate that the long-term bullish structure remains intact, but short-term corrections might occur as the market consolidates around this level. Wyckoff Phase & Accumulation/Distribution The mention of Wyckoff Phase B suggests that the market could be in an accumulation or distribution phase, based on Wyckoff’s methodology. Accumulation typically occurs when large institutions (Smart Money) are quietly buying during periods of low volatility, pushing prices higher afterward. In contrast, distribution is when institutions sell during periods of relatively stable prices, signaling a potential downturn. Since it is labeled "Phase B," it could mean that gold is undergoing an accumulation or consolidation process. Watch for a breakout above the current range, which could lead to another impulsive wave upward. Harmonic Pattern Zones The shaded areas on the chart might indicate potential harmonic pattern completion zones, such as a Gartley or Butterfly pattern. These patterns typically signal reversal points based on Fibonacci ratios. The purple zone might represent an important Fibonacci retracement or extension level where a reversal or continuation of the trend could occur. This zone serves as a critical area for price reaction, either providing a reversal back up or a continuation to the downside. Support and Resistance Levels Several key price levels are noted in the chart that traders should watch for potential entry or exit opportunities: Buy Stop Level at 2,681.565: This could be a planned buy-stop order that triggers when the price breaks through a resistance level, possibly indicating a continuation of the upward movement if the corrective wave concludes and the impulsive trend resumes. Current Price around 2,673.096: The current price level represents a near-term point of decision. If the price breaks above, it could continue upward, confirming a bullish trend. Conversely, if it breaks below key support levels, we could see further downside as the corrective phase continues. Stop-Loss and Leg Protection: There are additional stop-loss recommendations around 2,645.655 and lower protected swing points that align with the previous structure. These stop levels likely coincide with recent lows or key Fibonacci levels, providing protection against adverse movements. Market Sentiment and Key Risk Events Gold’s price movement will likely be influenced by key economic data and Fed speeches next week. Here’s what to watch for: Hawkish Fed Commentary could pressure gold downward as the U.S. dollar strengthens and yields rise. Conversely, dovish signals or weak U.S. data (like disappointing retail sales or softer inflation data) could lead to a weaker dollar, making gold more attractive and pushing prices upward. Next Week’s Plan Short-Term View (Corrective Phase Completion): Expect XAU/USD to complete the current corrective A-B-C pattern, with a potential pullback before resuming the upward trend. This correction could offer buying opportunities around key Fibonacci levels or after price interacts with the identified support zones. Look for Breakout Confirmation: If the price breaks above 2,681.565, it could confirm the end of the correction and the start of the next impulsive wave up. Watch for any breakouts from the current consolidation range, especially if prices start closing above resistance levels. Risk Management: Manage risk by placing stop-loss orders below recent swing lows (like around 2,645.655) to protect against deeper corrections. Consider using the buy-stop setup noted in the chart to catch upward momentum. Long-Term View: If the upward impulsive trend continues after the corrective phase, the next significant price targets could be above 2,700 and potentially higher depending on the broader macroeconomic outlook. In summary, the next week’s outlook for XAU/USD focuses on the potential completion of a corrective wave, followed by a resumption of the bullish trend. Key levels to watch are 2,681.565 for breakout confirmation and 2,645.655 for potential downside protection. Stay updated on U.S. economic data and Fed speeches to gauge any shifts in market sentiment.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Gold H1 Chart BreakdownElliott Wave Progression: The chart indicates a completed 5-wave Elliott Wave progression. Wave 3 had peaked at 2,702.967, and a corrective phase has begun, following the completion of Wave 5. An ABC corrective wave is likely in progress, where price will retrace toward support levels before resuming its next move. Fibonacci Retracement Levels: The retracement is expected to hit key Fibonacci levels, which act as support areas during corrective waves: 0.34 level at 2,698.043 0.5 level at 2,681.565 These levels act as potential reaction points where buyers could step in for the next bullish wave. A further critical support lies at equilibrium (2,645.655), which represents the 50% retracement of a prior bullish leg. Break of Structure (BOS): On a higher timeframe, there was a Bullish BOS, indicating that despite the current corrective phase, the overall bias remains bullish in the long term. The corrective move should be seen as a retracement, where price seeks equilibrium before continuing its trend. Order Blocks & Liquidity: A bullish order block is identified just below 2,645.655. If price reaches this level and holds, it could serve as a solid base for another bullish leg. Short-term Outlook: A correction toward 2,645.655 is likely before resuming the uptrend. However, if price fails to hold above 2,604.390, deeper corrections could occur, invalidating the bullish setup.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
1
XAU/USD Outlook: Technical Key Resistance in Focus.1. Elliott Wave Theory: Wave Analysis Wave 5 Completion (Top of Impulsive Move): End of Wave 5 marks the peak of the bullish phase, followed by a corrective move (ABC correction). Wave 5 Targets and Invalidations: Expected completion around 2,749 - 2,750 (resistance zone). Further upward movement could trigger profit-taking, invalidating further upward thrusts if price breaks below 2,742. Wave 4 Retracement Level: Key Fibonacci levels: 0.34 (2,707.143) and 0.382 (2,707.749). Price reversal after Wave 5 could retest these levels as a critical buy zone. 2. Wyckoff Method: Distribution and Range Structure Distribution Phase: Smart money is preparing to offload positions, leading to markdown in prices. Phase A to Phase B: Phase A (Initial Selling Pressure): Signs of distribution occur; strong resistance met. Phase B (Distribution): Establishes a range with Upthrust (UT) and Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD) leading to false breakouts. Preliminary Supply (PSY): Key resistance area where institutions sell, creating initial downward pressure. Automatic Rally (AR): Price rebounds within the range, marked around 2,718.091 (support line if market turns bearish). Sign of Weakness (SOW): Early indication of the distribution phase completing; marked near Wednesday or Thursday. Phase C (Expected Breakout): Final test or false break of resistance (UTAD) before a sharper decline. 3. Smart Money Concepts (SMC): Market Structure and Liquidity Change of Character (CHoCH): Potential shift from bullish to bearish expected next week after breaking highlighted structure level near AR. Market Structure Break (MSB): Expected below PSY and AR levels, confirming distribution. Liquidity Grab & Trap Setup: Areas highlighted for liquidity grabs around upthrust points (UT), likely early in the week with potential sharp reversal around 2,750. 4. Key Technical Levels & Patterns Upper Resistance Zone: 2,742 - 2,750 area serves as strong resistance; potential for false breakout (upthrust). Strong sell-off expected if price fails to hold above 2,742. Support Levels: 2,718.091 (AR Distribution Line): First significant support; break confirms markdown phase. 2,707 - 2,700 (Wave 4 Retracement Levels): Critical support for bullish bounce; breach leads to significant decline. Lower Target Levels: Expect price to reach 2,645.655 and potentially 2,638.105 after markdown. 5. Time-Based Projections Monday-Tuesday (Range-Bound, Liquidity Grab): Price may test liquidity above the UT area, hitting 2,742-2,750 range with potential false breakout. Wednesday (Sign of Weakness in Phase B): Price expected to weaken, testing AR levels, signaling a bearish market structure. Thursday-Friday (Bearish Breakout Expected): Anticipate a decisive break lower, entering Phase C and marking clear distribution. 6. Risk Management Strategy Invalidation Point: Bullish scenario invalidated if price breaks and closes below 2,707. Stop-Loss Placement: For short positions, place stop-loss above 2,750 to avoid traps. Take-Profit Zones: First target at 2,718, further downside at 2,645. Next Week’s Trading Plan Short Setup: Look for selling opportunities around 2,742-2,750, especially after false breakouts or upthrusts. Use SOW and CHoCH to confirm bearish entries. Target Levels: Expect price drop to 2,718, followed by 2,707 and possibly 2,645 if markdown is strong. Timing: Watch for reversal around midweek (Wednesday-Thursday) when bearish momentum likely takes control.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
2
XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Brace for Bearish Momentum Current Market Structure and Phases Primary Phase: We’re in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase moving from Phase B (Testing of supply) towards Phase C (Market confirmation of weakness). Phase B: This phase contains a SOW (Sign of Weakness), where the price has broken support levels, indicating a strong selling interest. Phase C: Expected to confirm this distribution phase as prices break further down, suggesting continuation of bearish momentum. Key Levels Resistance Line (BC Distribution Line) at approximately 2,740.6 - This acts as a ceiling for price; any rally towards this level is likely to encounter significant selling pressure. Support Line (AR Distribution Line) at around 2,714.9 - A key level to watch; if breached, it signals further downside. Elliott Wave Structure Wave 5 Completion: The chart suggests the end of Wave 5 in multiple timeframes, which often leads to a corrective phase. ABC Correction Pattern: Following the Wave 5 peak, an ABC corrective wave is anticipated. The chart projects Wave A downwards with expected retracement up to Wave B around 2,713.32 level, followed by a further drop in Wave C. Harmonic and Smart Money Concepts Bearish Order Block (1H): A sell zone established from previous bearish action, likely to restrict upward movements and signal more sell-offs if revisited. CHoCH (Change of Character): A shift in price behavior from a bullish to a bearish trend, observed in this distribution structure. Retail Stop Loss Zone (4H): Located around 2,705, this is a liquidity zone where retail traders are likely to have stop losses. A move below this level could trigger more selling. Indicators and Oscillators MACD: Currently showing bearish momentum with potential for continued downside pressure. Bearish Divergence: Observed on the oscillator, aligning with the end of Wave 5 and confirming a potential downtrend. Weekly Outlook Summary (Mon-Fri) Monday (M): Expect a potential retest of the resistance line near 2,740.6 before a further drop. Tuesday (T): The beginning of Phase C should confirm bearish momentum with a breakdown below 2,714.9 if selling pressure persists. Wednesday (W): Continuation of the downtrend as the market completes Wave B correction, with a downward bias toward Retail Stop Loss zones. Thursday (T): Expect some consolidation before another leg down to complete Wave C. Friday (F): A probable low for the week as Wave C reaches completion around 2,695-2,700. In summary, the overall sentiment for XAU/USD next week leans bearish, with key levels providing resistance and support cues.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Market Dynamics Unveiled Analysis for October 29-31Wyckoff Structure and Market Analysis The chart illustrates the Wyckoff Distribution with phases A, B, C, and D, each representing distinct price movements and volume dynamics according to the Wyckoff methodology. Phase A highlights the initial Preliminary Supply (PSY) and the Automatic Rally (AR) levels, indicating the onset of selling pressure and potential exhaustion of upward momentum. In Phase B, characterized as the consolidation phase, the Buying Climax (BC) and Secondary Test (ST) establish the trading range boundaries, with the Upthrust (UT) acting as a false breakout. Phase C typically marks the Spring or Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD), representing the last effort to achieve higher prices before a reversal occurs. Finally, Phase D initiates the markdown, signaling the beginning of a downtrend. Key price levels in this analysis include a major Resistance Line at approximately 2,758.525, which the price has struggled to surpass, and a Support Line around 2,716.905, historically an area of demand. Current range markers indicate a Strong Invalidation Point near 2,765, suggesting that a break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, and a Weak Low of a Range (PWL) at 2,740.640, marking the lower limit of potential re-accumulation or distribution. In terms of wave analysis, the chart depicts a 5-wave structure in line with Elliott Wave Theory, indicating an impulsive move. Each wave is sequentially marked, displaying initial bullish momentum, with Wave 5 culminating at the peak of the distribution phase. Following the impulsive 5-wave move, a corrective a-b-c pattern suggests a potential downward correction. Smaller sub-waves within each major wave indicate minor price fluctuations, with the note “NO TRADES ABOVE” around 2,758 marking a crucial resistance level confirming a bearish bias. Key signals, such as the Change of Character (CHoCH) marked during the transition from Phase A to Phase B, indicate initial weakness in the upward trend. The Market Structure Break (MSB) visible in Phase C signifies the conclusion of the upward structure and the potential onset of a downtrend. The analysis also highlights supply and demand zones. The Supply Zone at 2,758.525 represents where selling pressure overtook buying interest, while the Demand Zone (AR Distribution) at 2,716.905 historically provided demand that could either support prices or be breached in a downtrend. In terms of trade setup and triggers, there is a sell setup noted with “OPEN SELL ABOVE BUY BELOW” around 2,740, suggesting a sell signal if the price breaks below this level. A critical Weekly Close (W Close) is marked in red near 2,716, as a close below this level would confirm further downside. Projected price movement is indicated by red lines and anticipated downward movement, with labels like i, ii, iii, iv, v denoting expected minor waves within the projected downtrend. Minor resistance during the downtrend is identified around 2,740, with support areas during the decline at 2,716 and potentially lower levels if further distribution occurs. The analysis includes significant high and low points in the distribution process. The Preliminary Supply (PSY) marks the initial high before Phase A distribution, while Buying Climax (BC) and Upthrust (UT) indicate peak points in Phase B. Additionally, levels that acted as support, such as 2,716, may become resistance if the price breaks below them. Regarding timeframe and events, various date markers, including October 29, 30, and beyond, provide an estimated timeline for each phase and price movement, alongside indicators for major economic events such as FOMC and NFP that could affect price dynamics. In summary, this chart outlines a complex interaction between Wyckoff Phases and Elliott Wave Theory, indicating a Wyckoff Distribution pattern that suggests a bearish outlook. The completed Elliott Wave impulse indicates a corrective wave is currently in progress, with key Resistance around 2,758 and Support around 2,716 acting as critical decision points. A Sell Trigger at 2,740 is noted, with confirmation of a bearish outlook contingent upon a weekly close below 2,716. Additionally, potential harmonic patterns have been identified, including a Bearish Butterfly Pattern and a Bearish Gartley Pattern, aligning with the anticipated bearish reversal. The Bearish Butterfly Pattern consists of an XA Leg from 2,685 to 2,758, an AB Leg retracement to around 2,734, a BC Leg upward extension potentially reaching the 1.272 to 1.618 Fibonacci extension of XA, and a CD Leg aligning with a reversal zone below 2,716. The Bearish Gartley Pattern suggests a retracement from the Tuesday high of the week, where the final price point aligns with support between 2,685 to 2,700. A key harmonic confluence occurs around the 2,758 reversal zone, where both harmonic patterns converge as a high-probability area for bearish entries, targeting down to 2,685. Following the ICT Weekly Template, the high of the week is anticipated to form on Tuesday or Wednesday in a bearish outlook, establishing a peak before a decline. The projected Tuesday high around 2,758 serves as an optimal area for confirming the week’s high and a trigger for bearish trades. A stop-loss could be placed just above this high or slightly above the strong invalidation point at 2,765 to manage risk. The ideal scenario involves a push to this Tuesday high, confirming it as the week’s peak and triggering bearish positions. Once Tuesday's high is established, a downward movement is expected on Wednesday and Thursday, aligning with the forecasted wave structure and distribution pattern. This price action should lead towards lower support zones around 2,716 and ultimately 2,685 if the downtrend continues. In conclusion, the strategy revolves around using the Tuesday high as a sell signal, in alignment with the ICT weekly template and leveraging the Wyckoff Phase B Upthrust (UT) around 2,758 as a potential high for the week. The harmonic confluence of patterns such as the Bearish Butterfly or Gartley aligns with this level as a final reversal point. Trade management includes short positions at the Tuesday high (around 2,758–2,765) if bearish confirmation is observed, with a stop-loss above 2,765 and profit targets set at 2,716, 2,685, and potentially lower based on harmonic and Wyckoff markdown targets.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
XAU/USD Intraday Trading Plan: Key Price Levels and Scenarios1. Immediate Key Price Levels Primary Resistance (2,790.115): This is the near-term resistance level to watch. Price approaching this area without breaking it could signal a potential short setup. If broken with strength, this level may act as new support. Point of Control - POC (2,782.227): This level is today's pivot point due to high trading volume in this zone. Price holding above this level suggests bullish sentiment; a drop below signals potential bearish control. Secondary Support (2,773.665): This is the critical support level in case of a downtrend. If price reaches this area and holds, it may provide a buying opportunity; however, a break below indicates strong bearish momentum. 2. Scenarios for Today Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (Continuation) Trigger: Price breaks and closes above Primary Resistance (2,790.115) with increasing volume, indicating buyers are in control. Target Price Levels: Short-Term Target: 2,795.051 (minor resistance from Fibonacci level 0.272) as the initial upside target. Extended Target: 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point for Wave 5) – this is a major resistance level with possible volume divergence. It is crucial to monitor volume here, as lower volume at this level could suggest an imminent pullback or trend reversal. Stop-Loss: Set below 2,782.227 (POC), since a move back below this level would invalidate the bullish breakout. Invalidation Point: POC (2,782.227) – a drop below this level may indicate a false breakout. Scenario 2: Reversal at Resistance (Bearish) Trigger: Price rejects near 2,790.115 (Primary Resistance) with weak volume, indicating that sellers are stepping in. Entry Point: Initiate short positions near 2,790.115, ideally after observing bearish candlestick patterns or volume declining near this level. Target Price Levels: First Target: 2,782.227 (POC), where price might find some support. Partial profits could be taken here, as POC often serves as a consolidation zone. Secondary Target: 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) – the next significant support level below the POC. Stop-Loss: Above 2,803.705 (High Invalidation Point). If price surpasses this level, the bearish reversal scenario is invalidated. Invalidation Point: A confirmed break above 2,790.115 would indicate potential upside continuation and invalidate this short position. 3. Additional Key Terms and Concepts Volume Divergence: Monitor for volume divergence at the 1.236 (around 2,802) level, as this could indicate reduced buying interest and signal a potential reversal. Break of Structure (BOS): If the price breaks below POC (2,782.227), it signals a BOS (Break of Structure), favoring bearish momentum. This would confirm a downtrend for the rest of the day. Inducement Wave 3: Part of the current wave structure suggests an inducement, which might attract buyers at Primary Resistance only to see a potential reversal if it fails to break. Point of Control (POC): This is the area with the highest traded volume (2,782.227). If price holds above this level, it acts as a bullish pivot point, while a breakdown signals bearish sentiment. 4. Summary of Today's Plan Bullish Bias if price breaks and holds above 2,790.115, aiming for 2,803.705 as an extended target. Bearish Bias if 2,790.115 is rejected, targeting 2,782.227 (POC) initially and 2,773.665 (Secondary Support) as an extended target. Risk Management: Tight Stop-Losses: Use key levels such as 2,803.705 for shorts and 2,782.227 (POC) for longs to manage risk. Volume Monitoring: Pay close attention to volume behavior, especially near resistance and support levels, to gauge the strength of any breakout or rejection.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by spacedevil
2
XAUUSD 12M 1. Elliott Wave Structure Overview Wave 1 to Wave 5 (Impulse Waves): The chart outlines a classic five-wave impulse structure, indicating a long-term uptrend for XAU/USD. This sequence suggests a series of strong moves up, with each wave climbing to higher price levels. Wave 5 Completion: The fifth wave appears to have reached its final stages, potentially signaling the invalidation extension above Wave 5 if the price moves higher than 3,187.83. This marks the end of the impulsive phase and could lead to a corrective phase (A-B-C pattern). 2. Corrective Phase (A-B-C Waves) Wave A (Initial Decline): If Wave 5 is complete, we may see an initial decline in prices, marking the start of Wave A in the corrective phase. This move typically retraces the preceding impulse and could lead prices toward lower support levels. Wave B (Corrective Rally): Wave B is often a short-lived rally within the larger downtrend and may present a false breakout or inducement for retail traders. This rally can lure traders into buying prematurely, only for the market to resume its decline. Wave C (Continuation of Decline): Following Wave B, Wave C typically resumes the downtrend. This final corrective wave might present a significant buying opportunity as it reaches strong support levels, such as the Point of Control (POC) around the 1,400.00 area, a common zone of equilibrium in the market. 3. Key Fibonacci Levels and Their Importance 0.618 Retracement: Fibonacci retracement levels like 0.618 are crucial for identifying support zones during corrections. This level, marked at around 890.62, is annotated as MUST NOT PASS WAVE 1 INVALIDATION, indicating a strong support area in the corrective phase. 1.236 and 1.618 Extensions: The 1.236 and 1.618 Fibonacci extensions are key indicators of possible trend exhaustion. Specifically, 1.618 at 2,778.78 is noted as the potential maximum for Wave 5, signaling an area of volume divergence where momentum might start to weaken. 4. Volume Divergence and Implications Divergence in Volume on Wave 5: A decrease in volume while prices continue rising (volume divergence) in Wave 5 implies that buyer momentum may be fading. This could be a signal of an upcoming reversal or correction phase, aligning with the start of Wave A in the corrective structure. 5. Break of Structure (BOS) Key BOS Levels: Break of Structure (BOS) marks areas where the market structure changes direction, signaling potential trend shifts. For example, BOS MSS Wave 1 (12M) indicates a structural shift in the first wave that could influence future trend changes. BOS in Wave 3 (Potential Trend Shift): The BOS in Wave 3 may guide the corrective phase. If these BOS levels hold, they serve as critical areas of support or resistance during corrections, guiding potential entry or exit points. 6. Price Levels of Interest Point of Control (POC): The POC, a high-volume node around 1,400.00, represents a point of interest and a key equilibrium area. In corrective phases, prices often return to this level, serving as strong support and a potential buy zone. Premium and Discount Zones: The chart uses premium and discount zones to signify favorable buying and selling areas. The discount zone reflects levels where prices are seen as relatively low, and a buy opportunity might arise. Conversely, the premium zone signals overbought conditions and potential sell opportunities. 7. Market Psychology and Retail Traps Inducement and False Breakouts: Terms like inducement Wave 4 (12M) highlight areas where retail traders may be led to buy or sell at suboptimal times. The fake breakout in Wave 4 suggests that traders might be lured into taking long positions, only for the market to reverse downward. Markup Phase (12M): The markup phase typically occurs when institutional players drive prices higher, accumulating positions at lower levels before pushing the market up. The return to the flip zone indicates where institutional interest often lies, triggering rallies as it becomes a point of interest. 8. Next Week’s Trading Plan Based on the analysis above, here’s a structured plan: Primary Strategy: Seek short-selling opportunities if the chart is entering Wave A of the corrective phase, with the expectation that the market may decline in the short term. Target Levels: Wave A Support Zone: Watch for reactions at the 0.618 retracement level, around 890.62, which is annotated as a must-not-pass zone for invalidation. This area could attract buying interest if the price dips. Wave B Resistance Zone: If Wave B forms, consider this a temporary rally. Short positions might be ideal if the price reaches the premium zone, signaling overbought conditions. Wave C Completion: Look for a significant buy zone if prices reach key levels, such as the Point of Control (POC) near 1,400.00, marked as a point of interest and equilibrium zone. Risk Management: Place stop-loss orders above the invalidation extension above Wave 5 at 3,187.83 to control risk if the wave count is proven wrong. Volume and Price Action: Monitor volume spikes and price action during corrective moves to confirm trend reversals or trend continuations. Summary of Key Points The analysis suggests that Wave 5 may have peaked, with a corrective A-B-C structure likely to follow. The corrective phase provides potential sell opportunities in Wave A and B, while Wave C could mark an ideal buy zone. Use premium and discount zones to identify favorable buying and selling areas, and watch for retail traps like inducement and false breakouts. Equilibrium areas like the POC (around 1,400.00) serve as potential support zones for longer-term buy positions.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by spacedevil
GOLD NEXT MOVE (expecting a bearish move) (03-10-2024)Go through the analysis carefully and do trade accordingly. Anup 'BIAS for the day (03-10-2024) Current price- 2649 "if Price stays below 2665, then next target is 2639 and 2625 and above that 2675". -POSSIBILITY-1 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening ) -POSSIBILITY-2 Wait (as geopolitical situation are worsening) Best of luck Never risk more than 1% of principal to follow any position. Support us by liking and sharing the post.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by AnupZiddi
12
Gold is in the bullish direction after correcting the supportHello Traders In This Chart GOLD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today Gold analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (GOLD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on GOLD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
OANDA:XAUUSD
by ForexMasters2000
Gold can continues to grow inside upward channelHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. By observing the chart, we can see that the price a few moments ago started to grow inside the upward channel, where it at once rose to the resistance line and then made a correction movement. Next, the price continued to grow and later reached the resistance line of the channel again, which coincided with the current buyer zone, after which rebounded to the support line of the channel. Then Gold rebounded from this line to the resistance line of the upward channel, thereby breaking the 2605 support level, and also later exited from the channel. Price little grew and then started to decline, and in a short time fell to the support level. After this, Gold started to grow inside another upward channel, where it bounced from the support line and rose to the 2730 level. Price long time traded between this level, trying to break it, and later finally broke the 2730 level. After this, Gold rose to almost the resistance line of the channel, but not long time ago turned around and fell to the support area. At the moment, I think that the price can correct to support the line of the channel and then continue to grow inside the channel. For this reason, I set my TP at 2825 points, which coincides with the resistance line of the upward channel. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by LegionQ8
1
XAUUSD: Bullish trendToday, gold has tested the support at the 2732-2728 range again. So far, the support remains intact, and the short-term trend is still leaning towards a bullish outlook. Based on this, the primary trading direction in the current session remains bullish. From a technical perspective, gold is likely to continue its upward momentum in the near term. The key resistance zone to watch on the upside is between 2750 and 2758. It is worth noting that a resistance level has emerged around 2745 since the market opened yesterday. However, given the overall trend, this resistance does not pose a strong technical barrier at the moment, and a breakout above this level is not expected to face significant difficulty. Therefore, if gold can break above the 2745 level, there is a high likelihood of further gains towards the 2750-2758 range.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Mia-Signal