GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great day on the markets once again. This is an update on our 4H chart idea from Sunday, also playing out perfectly.
We started with our bullish target hit at 3375 with no cross and lock confirming the rejection into completing our bearish target at 3306. We will now need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3375 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3439
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3499
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3561
BEARISH TARGETS
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3236
3171
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3089
2995
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
GOLD trade ideas
Byt setup tiqgpt MARKET NARRATIVE: Analyzing the provided charts for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) across multiple timeframes, we observe a consistent uptrend from the 1D to the 1m timeframe. The 1D chart shows a recent bullish candle following a series of indecisive movements, indicating potential accumulation by institutions. The 4H and 1H charts display a clear impulsive move upwards, suggesting strong buying pressure. The 15m, 5m, and 1m charts further confirm this momentum with successive bullish candles and minimal retracement, indicating ongoing demand and limited supply.
INSTITUTIONAL THESIS: Institutions appear to be in an accumulation phase, driving the price upwards through consistent buying. The lack of significant pullbacks across lower timeframes suggests a strong institutional commitment to higher prices, likely targeting liquidity above recent highs.
LEARNING POINT: The consistent bullish momentum across all timeframes without significant retracement indicates a strong institutional presence and a potential continuation of the uptrend.
SIGNAL: WAIT SYMBOL: XAUUSD ENTRY PRICE: $3,330.50 STOP LOSS: $3,325.00 (just below the recent minor pullback on the 1m chart, which can act as a short-term liquidity area) TARGET PRICE: $3,340.00 (just below the next psychological round number, providing a reasonable target for institutional profit-taking) CONDITION: Buy on a slight retracement to $3,330.50, confirming continued demand. RATIONALE: Calculated risk/reward ratio of 1:1.7 (Risk=$5.50, Reward=$9.50) does not meet minimum 2:1 requirement. Waiting for better institutional setup with improved risk parameters. STRATEGIES USED: Multi-timeframe momentum trading, targeting minor pullbacks for entry. URGENCY: MEDIUM TIMEFRAME: Short-term CONFIDENCE SCORE: 85% (based on the alignment of bullish signals across multiple timeframes) RISK/REWARD RATIO: Risk=$5.50, Reward=$9.50, Ratio=1:1.7 (Below 2:1 minimum)
Risk = Entry Price - Stop Loss = $3,330.50 - $3,325.00 = $5.50
Reward = Target Price - Entry Price = $3,340.00 - $3,330.50 = $9.50
Ratio = Reward ÷ Risk = $9.50 ÷ $5.50 ≈ 1.73
Given that the risk/reward ratio is less than 2:1, the recommendation is to WAIT for a better entry point or adjust the target/stop to improve the ratio.
Gold encounters resistance at 3310-3320 and is about to fallAt present, gold has reached the 3300-3320 area as expected. As I mentioned in my previous article, we can consider shorting gold in batches in the 3300-3320 area;
Although gold once rebounded and stood above 3300, we can clearly see that when facing the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320, the bullish energy of gold has converged and began to show signs of stagflation, so the short-term resistance area of 3310-3320 is still valid.
Before gold breaks through 3310-3320, gold bears still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3310-3320 in the short term, don't be afraid of gold rebounds. Rebounds are opportunities to short gold. So I still tend to short gold at present, and have opened short gold positions according to the trading plan, hoping that gold can retreat to the target area: 3285-3275-3265. Do you think gold will fall as expected?
GOLD SHORT TRADE IDEA ! Gold Looking For Sell On Order Block Zone 3331/3334 Target Will Be 3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish Engulfing + Fresh Supply Target Will Be 3275
Gold Sell First Zone OB H1 (3331/3335
Stoploss - 3345
Tp Levels - 3325,3320,3310,3300
Gold Sell Second Zone Bearish EG + Fresh Supply (3338/3344)
Stoploss - 3350
TP levels : 3330; 3322; 3314; 3330, 3290
Gold is rising. Second starting point?Information summary:
1. The US dollar index has experienced the longest consecutive monthly decline since 2017. The weakening of the US dollar has increased the attractiveness of gold denominated in US dollars to non-US dollar holders, becoming an important support factor for gold prices.
2. Trump's continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates has formed a resonance effect with the weakening of the US dollar, which has jointly pushed up the short-term attractiveness of gold.
Multiple factors are intertwined, and gold has risen slightly again.
Market analysis:
Gold bottomed out and rebounded on Monday, showing a positive closing, and above 3300. After falling sideways for 5 consecutive trading days last week, although it fell for a short time on Monday, it did not continue. In this case, whether a new high can be reached, the watershed is the 3295 line. As long as the European session breaks the high, the long position is near the starting point of 3305 in the early trading session.
At present, the main focus is on the upper resistance around 3325. It opened directly upward on Tuesday, but did not break through too much space, unless it directly broke through 3325-3330; then the next resistance is around 3340. At present, the bulls are still running at a high level. The upward trend line generated after the reversal is more obvious, and the trend line has good effectiveness.
Since the current market is in the first wave of rise, the high point has not been confirmed. Quaid believes that when the high point is clear and the price falls back to the support area, consider entering the market to go long based on the support level. Of course, aggressive trading can choose to buy around 3320 and choose a suitable high point to take profit.
Operation strategy:
Short near the rebound 3340, stop loss 3350, profit range 3310-3300
Long near the fall 3305, stop loss 3290, profit range 3320-3335
XAUUSD 01.07.2025-Formation of the market:
On the background of general cooling of geopolitical situation gold continues its fall to the levels of 3250. The main preference of market participants is now given to less "conservative" assets, which is clearly reflected in the record values of cryptocurrency and stock market.
-Forecast:
In the medium term, capital outflows are likely to continue and the asset will again test the 3250 level as support.
-News Background:
There will be many "strong" news releases this week that could be a strong driver of movement for the asset:
Today:
-ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job openings.
Thursday:
Unemployment rate, and Non-Farm Payrolls.
GOLD 30M ANALYSIS (LONG)In this analysis we're focusing on 30Min time frame. If we look in this 30Min chart, we have supply area and demand area. And we have also a minor resistance level. Now what I'm looking for that price move impulsively upside after sweeping all SSL. I'm expecting that price will come back and retest (3310 - 3305) area at least. So keep an eye on these level, confirmation is key.
Second Condition:
If price break above 3332 and close above 3332 with strong momentum than we will plan a buy trade on retracement.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 30M Technical Analysis Expected Move.
GOLD XAUUSD THE month of july 1 Key Economic Outlook ;
Central Bank Speeches
(1)The bank of England head (BOE) Gov Bailey might speak in context on BOE 4.25% rate cut ,uk inflation about 3.45% is still above limit and the goal is 2%.my focus will be on his rhetoric's ,if he sounds dovish or Hawkish tones, then GBP will react to the sentiment.
(2)Bank of japan (BOJ) Gov Ueda will center on rate held steady at 0.5% and core inflation remains above 2%,market will watch the sentiment because its likely he will address yield -curve control adjustments or hawkish signals , which will potentially boost JPY AND JP10Y
the head of united states Fed reserve Chair, sir! Powell will speak and it comes with red folder ,the last monetary policy meeting kept Fed funds rate at 4.25–4.50% ,Powell recently emphasized patience on rate cuts based on cautious wait and see approach
Key Messages Expected:
Tariff-driven inflation risks require vigilance.
Rate cuts unlikely until September unless inflation cools markedly.
"No urgency" to ease policy amid solid labor market.
US Economic Data Releases
Final Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.0 Neutral if unchanged; USD positive if >52.0.
ISM Manufacturing PMI 48.8 48.5 Contractionary (<50); USD negative if <48.5.
JOLTS Job Openings 7.32M 7.39M USD negative if <7.32M (labor cooling).
ISM Manufacturing Prices 69.6 69.4 USD positive if >69.6 (inflationary pressure).
Construction Spending -0.2% -0.4% Limited impact unless significantly below forecast.
Market Implications
USD: Powell’s tone is critical. Hawkish remarks (delayed cuts) could lift DXY; dovish hints may weaken it. Data surprises (especially ISM/JOLTS) could amplify volatility.
GBP/JPY: Bailey/Ueda speeches may drive cross-pairs. BOJ hawkishness could weaken EUR/JPY carry trades.
Risk Assets: Weak ISM/JOLTS data may pressure equities (US30) and boost bonds (↓US10Y).
Summary of Key Risks
Powell Speech: Reiteration of "no imminent cuts" likely. Watch for tariff-inflation warnings.
ISM/JOLTS: Sustained manufacturing contraction or softer labor demand could fuel recession fears.
Carry Trades: JPY strength (Ueda) may pressure EUR/JPY/AUD if BOJ signals policy shift.
#gold #xauusd #gbp #jpy
XAU / USD 4 Hour ChartHello traders. I just wanted to follow up on this chart. I have changed nothing since the last post. I just wanted to show the trade set up was on point. Big G gets a shout out. Be well and trade the trend. I find the first few days of the week gold carves out its potential paths both up and down. Wednesday, many times the weekly will be right in the middle of the moves from the previous few days. Not sure if that makes sense, but I just ripped a bongload of Gorilla Glue and I am not proof reading this or checking for typos.. my bad. Be well and trade the trend. Let's see how the overnight sessions play out. Thanks for checking out my chart.
Possible MTR in Play (TBC)Gold has printed a textbook structure for a potential Major Trend Reversal (MTR) off the ATH zone, with a clean rejection and a shift in character. The descending trendline from the top aligns with lower highs, while the ascending base from April is now under pressure.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
3,280.0 – neckline of the potential MTR
3,250.00 – psychological magnet and structural support
3,000.00 – major downside target if the reversal confirms
🧠 “Markets top on euphoria, not logic.” If price breaks and retests the neckline with momentum, the MTR thesis gains traction. Until then — TBC.
#XAUUSD #Gold #MajorTrendReversal #MTR #PriceAction #TechnicalAnalysis #GoldBears #ATHRejection #TrendShift #MJTrading
Gold RangeThis reaccumulation model for gold just popped into my head, so I wanted to post it on my profile to see how wrong I was later. My main focus right now is this potential internal distribution, which will likely take some time to confirm/invalidate. I'll take a closer look if there are more signs that it's playing out.
XAUUSD - Breakdown: Israel-Iran Conflict - RISK OFF Part III missed to Publish my Idea here, I frequently share charts on my X handle for those who would like to follow, @JOHNDOUGHFX
OK let get into it.. I will publish my entire Idea as I did from the start of the sells, it has been quiet accurate but with terrible choppy PA.
FOMC likely a no move event. Rates to stay high due to tariff risks, Gold has been sentiment driven from last week-so Risk ON/OFF dominates.
Israel-Iran talks ongoing → expect noise + fake escalations before a “Deal"
Gold Order Flow zones at 3409 / 3450
Israel–Iran conflict = main wildcard.
Expect sudden headline moves: escalation threats → quick spikes.
But watch for fake outs followed by a “deal” headlines.
That’s your Risk ON trigger.
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Key levels for OANDA:XAUUSD :
⚠️ Liquidity trap zone: 3409–3415
⚠️ Double top watch: 3448–3450 (psy level)
Below 3400, we could fade toward:
🔻 3350
🔻 3330
🔻 3322
Plan both sides, don’t chase breakouts.
For today's Analysis, Yesterday we have closed a bullish Doji Candle, signaling buyers, even though we broke below today, there was no selling pressure breaking the previous Daily low, and it has reacted close to As we have tapped the 39 Area, and pulled back, 43-45 if defended, will see price push higher into the high 65-70-75 extended Price Points before we can look for sells again.
As Iran - US tensions are now extended for 2 weeks, I believe the typical news escalations will keep price action on the edge, at present the market is sentiment driven with Risk OFF, so plan your trades accordingly. Risk ON can come with any optimistic news, especially a "DEAL"
Cheers and have a good last trading day!!