XAUUSD - Intraday SMC Bearish Setup | 15m ChartGold is currently reacting to a visible 15m supply zone after a bullish retracement. Price failed to break above the short-term supply (highlighted in red), showing signs of potential short-term reversal.
🔍 Key SMC Insights:
Supply Zone at 3318.47 – 3320 area is holding firm, with price showing clear rejection and lower highs forming.
Internal CHoCH already confirmed — suggesting short-term bearish order flow is active.
Liquidity Grab and rejection around the supply confirms smart money may be offloading positions.
Imbalance Below near 3303.96, with further inefficiency down to 3272.64.
📍Trade Idea:
Sell Entry: After a retest or failure to break above the 3318.47 zone.
Target 1: 3303.96 (near-term support and minor liquidity)
Target 2: 3272.64 (major liquidity zone + possible demand area)
Invalidation: Bullish break and close above 3320 would shift intraday bias.
⚠️ Monitor lower timeframes (1m–5m) for confirmation before executing trades. This setup aligns with the 4H bearish structure, enhancing confluence.
GOLD trade ideas
short gold week The market is at a point where we must sell, it's at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so prepare for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the lows, it will continue to go down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, that is, a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks; it is not an ABC, but 5 bearish waves.
Short gold ,the downside potential is far from over.After we waited patiently for a long time, the gold bears finally showed signs of strength and began to fall as expected. Why do I insist on being optimistic about the gold retracement and wait patiently for it to retrace? !
In fact, it is very simple. Gold started to rebound from around 3283 and touched around 3330, which only recovered 50% of the decline. When facing the 50% retracement level, the bulls were unable to do so and could not stand above 3335, and could not even stabilize above 3330. The bulls' willingness was obviously insufficient. Then it can be determined that the gold rebound is only a technical repair of the sharp drop, and it cannot be completely regarded as a reversal of the trend. Then after a certain degree of repair, the gold bears will counterattack again.
Moreover, from the perspective of market psychology, the recent gold bull and bear markets have been discontinuous, and Trump often stirs up the gold market, making it difficult for the market to stand unilaterally on the bull side. Therefore, before gold stabilizes in the 3330-3340 area, there is limited room for rebound in the short term. Once gold falls below the 3310-3305 area again during the retracement, gold may test the area around 3280 again, or even around 3270.
So the above is why I insist on shorting gold, and I have shorted gold at 3320-3330 as planned, and patiently hold the position to see its performance in the 3310-3305 area, which is also the target area of our short-term short position.
Gold Coils Beneath Resistance – Breakout Setup Brewing Above $3,Gold remains in a consolidation phase after its sharp rally earlier this year, but the broader uptrend remains intact. Price action continues to respect the ascending trendline that has been active since late 2024, as well as the 50-day SMA which currently offers dynamic support around the $3,323 level.
The key horizontal resistance at $3,430 continues to cap upside attempts. Price has formed a series of higher lows while facing rejection at this ceiling, suggesting a potential ascending triangle pattern—a bullish continuation setup.
Indicators:
MACD remains below the zero line and has flattened, reflecting the lack of momentum and confirming the consolidation.
RSI hovers near 47, showing neutral momentum. However, it has started to curl up slightly, which could hint at a developing bullish bias if price breaks higher.
Key Levels to Watch:
A confirmed breakout above $3,430 could open the door to fresh highs.
On the downside, a break below the ascending trendline and 50-day SMA could trigger a deeper correction toward the 200-day SMA near $2,950.
Conclusion:
Gold is currently coiling within a tightening range. While momentum is subdued, the technical structure favors a potential bullish breakout if resistance at $3,430 gives way. Traders should watch for a daily close above this level for confirmation of renewed bullish momentum.
-MW
Gold Price Setup: Bullish Continuation or Rejection? 🧠 Chart Analysis (XAU/USD – 1H):
Key Structure Highlights:
CHoCH (Change of Character) zones marked both up and down indicate a battle between bulls and bears.
Recent bullish CHoCH followed by a fair value gap (FVG) retest suggests potential continuation to the upside.
Price recently bounced strongly from demand zone, shown by the green arrows and strong candle reaction.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price is trying to break back above the Kumo (cloud), a sign of bullish momentum building.
However, resistance is still present with the Kijun and Tenkan lines converging.
FVG (Fair Value Gap):
The current price is attempting to fill and break above the FVG zone.
A successful breakout above this area confirms bullish intention.
Fibonacci Levels:
Price is hovering around the 0.5 - 0.618 retracement zone, often a strong reversal or continuation point.
Upside targets lie near the 0.786 retracement (3352) and ultimate target at 3391, a major resistance level.
Risk Management:
Trade setup shows an excellent Risk:Reward ratio.
Stop-loss placed just below the last structure low.
Potential downside to 3290–3258 if breakout fails.
🟢 Possible Next Move:
Bullish Scenario: If price clears the FVG and breaks above 3353, expect continuation to 3391.
Bearish Rejection: If rejected at FVG/0.618 level, watch for a drop back to 3290 or even 3259.
Gold shows signs of slowing down, are the bears ready?This wave of bullish pull-up is a complete rebound. With the help of the timeliness of fundamentals, the highest rebound only reached around 3330 and then began to fall. At this time, many people probably think that the short-term trend has begun to change. I still stick to my bearish thinking. The important target pressure is definitely around 3330. As long as this position is under pressure and falls back to 3280 again, it will be shaky. At present, the stop loss is based on the break of 3335. If it really breaks, it will be similar to the break of 3280. Even if 3340-3345 is short, it is also a short-term bull correction. If the falling channel is broken, I can't convince myself to continue to be short and stick to it. Once 3335 breaks, I can really confirm the reversal of the short-term trend. Then 3280 will also be the bottom of the medium term. In short, since I am shorting near 3320-3330 in the direction of the band and the short-term negative, I think that the stop loss will be given to 3335. The stop profit target is uncertain. The channel has not been broken. Now the short-term long and short conversions are frequent. It is definitely the best choice in my own trading system. No one will win all the time. It is too fake to win all the time. Make your moves according to your own ideas without regrets. If this wave of strategy verification fails, everyone is welcome to supervise. We dare to take responsibility and review every judgment.
Gold Stuck in Neutral: Range Trading PersistsSince its impressive rally towards $3,500 earlier this year, Gold (XAUUSD) has settled into a consolidation phase, oscillating steadily between $3,250 and $3,400. Prices have consistently gravitated towards the 20-period SMA, reflecting a neutral sentiment among traders. Despite staying above key trend supports (50- and 200-period SMAs), gold has lacked sustained directional momentum.
Technically, indicators confirm this balanced outlook. RSI remains neutral around 49, indicating evenly matched bulls and bears, while the stochastic oscillator similarly shows neither oversold nor overbought conditions. A declining ATR highlights reduced volatility, signaling cautious market participation. Critical near-term support lies at $3,164 and $3,054, while resistance holds firm at $3,296 and $3,400. Traders should anticipate continued mean reversion and look to fade extremes within this established range.
Fundamentally, Gold faces competing drivers. Geopolitical uncertainties and central bank diversification away from the U.S. dollar provide bullish tailwinds. Conversely, resilient U.S. economic data periodically boosts the dollar, restricting gold’s upside potential. Traders should monitor this week's Fed minutes closely, as surprises here could trigger volatility or even a breakout scenario toward $3,500 or a deeper correction below $3,164. For now, expect gold to remain range-bound, reacting sensitively to headlines and macroeconomic cues.
7/9: Focus on Selling Gold on ReboundsGood evening, everyone!
Apologies for the late update today—I had some matters to attend to. I hope your trades are going smoothly.
Yesterday, gold found support around 3284 and continued to rebound during today’s session, reaching as high as 3330. The key resistance at 3321 has now been broken and is currently acting as a short-term support level. However, based on the current price structure, this level is likely to be retested multiple times, and some consolidation may follow.
The next major resistance lies between 3337 and 3343. In the absence of strong bullish momentum, the preferred short-term strategy remains selling on rebounds, especially near resistance zones.
⚠️ Additionally, the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data will be released during the New York session tonight, which may cause increased volatility and potentially whipsaw price action. Be cautious with position sizing, and avoid emotional trades or chasing price action during news releases. Patience and discipline will be key.
$XAUUSD / Gold - Thursday July 10th OutlookYesterday’s price action gave us a clean 200 pip run from the break and retest of 3308, and today we’ve already caught 140 pips using yesterday’s high (3317.17) as intraday support.
But now we’re sitting at a critical inflection point.
📍 Key levels:
Safe Buys: Only looking to buy above Tuesday’s high of 3345.74, which gives room for a clean 200-pip move up toward last Thursday’s high.
Bearish Scenario: If we fail to break that high and instead break yesterday’s high of 3316.65, we may see a sharp 340 pip drop back down to 3282.83.
⚠️ Caution: The 4H bearish trendline from mid-June is still intact, and we're currently testing it. Wait for clear confirmation either way. Higher timeframes remain bullish, so we’re playing both scenarios carefully.
Gold - Sell before longer term buyLooking at gold we are a matter of a few pips away from entry. looking to play gold down till our larger 4H area of demand seeing as we have had a CHoCH to the upside.
There for i will be looking to take my sell position down to 3283.5 at a bare minimum as it was the previous structure level in which we turned around.
Lets see if we get tagged in. If not i will jump down to the lower TF and see if we can get a confirmation that price is going to turn from here.
GOLD Is Very Bearish! Short!
Here is our detailed technical review for GOLD.
Time Frame: 2h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is approaching a significant resistance area 3,320.51.
Due to the fact that we see a positive bearish reaction from the underlined area, I strongly believe that sellers will manage to push the price all the way down to 3,298.54 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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XAUUSD Trade Setup – 1H ChartGold is currently at a key decision point, testing a supply zone and descending trendline resistance within a falling channel. Two scenarios are in play:
(Bearish)
Price gets rejected from the current supply zone (3,325–3,330) and resumes the downtrend, targeting 3,275 and possibly lower.
This aligns with the trendline resistance and previous swing rejection.
(Bullish Breakout)
If price breaks and holds above the descending trendline and clears the 3,331 zone, we may see a rally toward the 3,360–3,365 supply zone and beyond.
A breakout retest would confirm continuation.
This is a flexible setup with both long and short potential depending on the reaction at the current zone.
Your comments and opinions are welcome
#XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #TradeSetup #ForexIdeas #TechnicalAnalysis
Don’t be too optimistic, gold may change its face at any time!Gold continued to rebound to around 3320, and it seems to have completely stood above 3300. The bulls are recovering. Should we chase gold in a big way? In fact, due to the disruption of news such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and tariffs, the gold market has clearly shown the characteristics of frequent switching between long and short positions and discontinuity between long and short positions. Therefore, even if gold rebounds to a certain extent, it is difficult for the market to stand unilaterally on the bull side.
In the short term, gold began to retreat from around 3366, reaching a minimum of around 3283, with a retracement of $83; and currently it has only rebounded from the low of 3283 to around 3320, and the rebound is even less than 50%. Gold bulls are not as strong as imagined; although gold continues to rebound, before regaining the 3325-3335 area, it can only be regarded as a technical repair of the sharp drop, and cannot be completely regarded as a reversal of the trend. So after the rebound of gold, gold bears may counterattack strongly at any time.
Therefore, in short-term trading, after gold rebounds, you can consider shorting gold with the 3325-3335 area as resistance, and the first entry area worth paying attention to is 3320-3330.
Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis : Bullish Structure Setup + Target🧠 Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
Gold has recently been trading within a clearly defined descending channel, which has governed price action over the past several sessions. This structure is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming well-established channel resistance and channel support levels. However, recent bullish pressure has led price to aggressively test the upper boundary of this channel, signaling the potential for a structural breakout.
We are now at a technical inflection point, where a successful breakout and retest could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal and short-to-medium term bullish move.
🔍 Key Technical Levels & Zones
🔷 Channel Resistance (~3,325)
The price is currently testing the descending trendline acting as channel resistance.
This area has previously rejected price several times, increasing its significance.
A confirmed break and close above this level may shift the market bias from bearish to bullish.
🔷 Central Zone – Dual Demand (~3,325–3,330)
This horizontal zone intersects with the channel resistance and aligns with two previous demand zones, now acting as a key decision area.
The market must validate this zone as new support before any sustained upward movement can occur.
🔷 Next Reversal Zone – Target (~3,370)
The next major area of interest lies around 3,370, a zone identified by previous swing highs and visible liquidity pools.
This level is likely to act as a magnet for price if bullish structure is confirmed.
📈 Price Structure Outlook
The potential breakout is supported by a strong bullish impulse off the channel support, followed by a series of higher lows suggesting growing bullish momentum. The projected movement scenario is as follows:
Break above the channel resistance
Retest and confirm the central zone as support
Continuation toward the 3,370 reversal zone
This would complete a classic break–retest–continuation pattern.
✅ Trade Considerations (Not Financial Advice)
Entry Type Entry Condition Target Stop Loss
Aggressive Break & 2H close above 3,330 3,370 Below 3,320
Conservative Retest & bullish confirmation above 3,325 3,370 Below 3,310
Risk Management:
Use position sizing aligned with your risk tolerance (max 1–2% per trade).
Monitor volume closely during breakout and retest for confirmation.
⚠️ Invalidation Scenario
If price fails to break above the channel and is rejected strongly, especially with a bearish engulfing or long upper wick, the downside could resume. In such a case, price may revisit the channel midline or even the lower boundary around 3,290.
📝 Summary
Gold is at a critical juncture, testing long-standing channel resistance.
A break above and successful retest of the 3,325–3,330 zone could lead to a rally toward 3,370.
This setup reflects a potential shift in structure from bearish to bullish on the 2H timeframe.