Gold: Short-Term Elliott Wave OutlookGold: Short-Term Elliott Wave Outlook
Gold is currently displaying a classic Elliott wave pattern, specifically an ABC correction. In this case, the C wave appears to be overextended.
Looking closer, the C wave has completed a five-wave sequence, which often signals the end of the correction. This suggests that Gold could be ready to resume its bullish trend.
In strong trends, these wave patterns create deep pullbacks before the price continues moving in the main direction.
Key price levels to watch:
3356
3405
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
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GOLD trade ideas
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
Nice move early session giving us the low we wanted for an entry long into the target region. We activated higher on Excalibur which also completed and the red box indicator gave us a wonderful performance across all the pairs we took profit on today.
Now we have support at the 3320 region with resistance sitting up at 3350 which will need to break to go higher. We've giving the potential range unless the levels are broken and there is a late session move. Either way, it's been another good week on the markets in Camelot and we'll see you on Sunday for the KOG Report and our view for the week ahead.
Wishing you all a great weekend, please don't forget to hit the boost button for us!
As always, trade safe.
KOG
XAU/USD: Institutional Accumulation or New Bearish Impulse?Technical Context:
The graphical analysis shows that the price of gold (XAU/USD) is currently consolidating within a significant demand zone following the recent bullish impulse. The daily chart shows an attempt to bounce off the 3,300 USD zone, a key psychological level.
Volume and COT Analysis:
The latest COT data (April 29, 2025) indicates a slight reduction in long positions by non-commercial operators (-18,519 contracts), balanced by an increase in commercial long positions (+1,659 contracts), signaling potential institutional accumulation.
On the retail sentiment front, traders are slightly more exposed to the downside (51% short vs. 49% long), which could indicate a potential short squeeze if the price resumes an upward trend.
Seasonal Trends:
According to data, May historically shows mixed performances with an average of +9.83% over the last 10 years, but with significant fluctuations between longer and more recent periods.
Key Levels:
Resistance: 3,380 - 3,400 USD (previous distribution zone)
Support: 3,300 USD (current demand zone) and 3,050 USD (secondary support)
Trading Strategy:
Bullish Scenario: Buy above 3,340 USD with a target at 3,400 USD and a stop loss below 3,300 USD.
Bearish Scenario: Sell below 3,300 USD with a target at 3,050 USD and a stop loss above 3,340 USD.
Gold's V-shaped reversal restarts its upward trend!Gold had a perfect V-shaped reversal today. It opened at 3177 and fell unilaterally in the Asian session. It hit 3120 at noon and then rose slowly. As of the time of writing, it has completely recovered the decline and is currently trading around 3220. The key point today is to pay attention to the gains and losses of 3200. The 4-hour mid-term Bollinger opening, although temporarily strong, but if it rebounds continuously and stands firm at 3200, there will be a continuous positive pattern at the bottom, breaking the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, then there is a great possibility that it will go to 3235. Therefore, gold in the late trading should not be inertially bearish because of the decline on Wednesday. Even if it is bearish, it is necessary to observe the gains and losses of 3200. As for trading, first pay attention to 3200 below and try to go long, and watch for the break of 3230 and 3250. The short-term operation of gold is recommended to be long on pullbacks and short on rebounds. The short-term focus on the upper side is 3250-365 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 3193-3200 support.
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great finish to the week with our chart idea playing out, as analysed.
After completing our Bullish targets 3282, 3343 and 3404 yesterday; we stated that no further cross and lock above 3404 confirmed the rejection and that price will find support at lower Goldturns for the bounces.
- This played out perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips. Price found support at 3282 Goldturn and gave the weighted bounce just like we analysed.
BULLISH TARGET
3282 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3343 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3343 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3404 - DONE
We will now come back Sunday with our updated Multi time-frame analysis, Gold route map and trading plans for the week ahead.
Have a smashing weekend!! And once again, thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
The recent gold short position has a perfect harvestIt can be said that the market of gold on Wednesday was mainly range-bound. After the US market, gold began to follow a unilateral decline pattern, with the lowest reaching the 3173 line. The current rebound of gold is not strong. On the rebound, we will focus on the 3206-3210 line for suppression at the top and 3154-3154 at the bottom. 3160 is a first-line support. The general trend is still mainly rebounding and shorting. We continue to rebound and take advantage of the trend to intervene in short orders and be a stable trader. I have always been here. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope that your investment can avoid detours. Welcome to communicate!
Judging from the 4-hour analysis, the upper side is currently focusing on the short-term suppression of the 3206-3210 first line. The counter-draw relies on this position to continue to go short first and then fall back. Before breaking through and standing at this position, the counter-draw main short-term rhythm will remain unchanged. The short-term support below is around 3154-3160, with interval operations as the main focus.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold rebounds and goes short at 3206-3210 line, stop loss at 3219, target 3160-3165 line, continue to hold if the position is broken;
XAUUSD-Elliott Wave TheoryCurrent price action is unfolding in a 5-wave bearish structure wave (1) of ((3)) with wave ((V)) of 3 in progress.
A corrective ABC structure completed near the CISD zone.
Wave 3 extends to the 3.618 Fibonacci projection (~3,148), with wave 5 targeting a support block near 3,120–3,130.
Anticipated short-term retracement for wave 4, followed by one more impulsive drop into demand.
Indicators:
RSI shows consistent bearish momentum with room for divergence
XAUUSD – Bearish Structure Intact, Awaiting Key Reaction Zones Gold remains in a clear 1H downtrend. Late last week, price tapped into a 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a strong 4H order block, which triggered a solid reaction—an opportunity we capitalized on.
Now, we’re observing price behavior around the previous day's high and low to determine whether the bearish momentum will continue, or if a larger bullish leg may develop on the higher timeframe.
📌 Key Levels
🟢 Support: $3,120
🔴 Resistance Zones: $3,241 / $3,280
🔍 Insight by ProfitaminFX
If this outlook aligns with your bias, or if you see it differently, feel free to share your perspective in the comments. Let’s grow together 📈
GOLD correction in progress Gold giant cup and handle formation in progress and price hit one of our internal resistance levels with price tagged at $3500 which currently acting at the current ATH, the plan now is to wait for the price correction towards the $2800 zone to complete the mini correction before further continuation towards the final setup target as shown on the chart.
Check out all the previous analysis on Gold that showcase cup and handle outlook.
Gold Strong Crash, Final Warning —Moving Below $2,000XAUUSD (Gold) will move below $3,000 with very strong bearish momentum. You cannot say that you were not warned. It will continue lower to hit a target around $2,750 after $3,000 fails as support.
After the $2,750 target hits, I will look again at the chart and see what it has to say. Below $3,000 is ultra high probability, guaranteed basically. $2,750 is also very high probability that it will hit.
Will it continue lower? At this point it is hard to tell because I don't know Gold's long-term dynamics in a correction, but it isn't looking pretty. If current geopolitical conditions is what's making Gold bearish, then XAUUSD is set for a long-term bear market because everything will continue in the same vein.
That is only if that's the reason why Gold is bearish.
» Looking at the monthly chart, it is a disaster. Gold is set to move below $2,000 in the coming months.
Do you agree?
Disagree?
Leave a comment.
Thank you for reading.
(Remember to follow, and boost...)
Namaste.
Hanzo | Gold 15 min : Bullish Break– Next Move is confirmed 🔥 GOLD – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
Bias: Waiting For Break Out
Time Frame: 15 Min
Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out
Bullish After Break Out : 3208
Break Out Done
🩸 Key Reasons for Entry:
☄️Strong bullish reaction from a refined demand zone.
☄️Entry based on Smart Money Concepts: Break of structure + order block confirmation.
☄️Confluence with higher time frame support or key level.
☄️Bullish engulfing / displacement candle shows clear intent.
☄️Market in premium-to-discount transition zone.
GOLD (XAUUSD): Detailed Technical Outlook & Trading Plan
As we discussed on the yesterday's live stream,
Gold is currently in a consolidation stage.
The price is stuck within a wide horizontal channel on a daily
and we see a test of its support at the moment.
With the absence of high impact news in the economic calendar,
I assume that a consolidation will continue and there is a high
chance to see a pullback.
Your confirmation signal will be a bullish breakout and a 4H candle close
above 3271 - upper boundary of the intraday horizontal range.
There will be a strong possibility of a rise to at least to 3320 level.
Alternatively, a bearish violation of a support of the range on a daily
and a daily candle close below that may trigger a further decline.
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XAUUSD Daily AnalysisGold long-term trend is still bullish. based on ICHIMOKU the Xauusd is in supposed correction. daily support level (3228) was touched. the price is near important support level (3188).
For next weeks:
Support levels:
3188
3166
Resistance levels:
3351
3381
After that waiting for Ichimoku to give us the exact road map.
Gold opening rise and fall prediction?The current gold market is in a range of fluctuations, maintaining a wide range of fluctuations. Technically, the key support level below is still focused on the 3270 area, while the 3450 price level above constitutes a significant double-top structural resistance level. Although the conclusion of the US-UK tariff agreement has a phased negative effect on precious metals at the geopolitical level and may provide a demonstration effect for other regional trade negotiations, the overall technical structure still maintains a downward trend. At the daily level, the recent K-line combination has completed a deep retracement from the 3500 mark with two long negative lines, directly breaking through an important support platform. The current daily K-line continues to close the adjustment pattern with an upper shadow line, and the alternating yin and yang oscillation rhythm conforms to the technical correction characteristics. It is worth noting that the 50-period moving average continues a clear downward trajectory, forming a resonance suppression with the double-top structure in the 3450 area.
The 1-hour gold chart shows that the short-term price trend presents a clear downward channel feature, and the seller's power continues to dominate the market. Combined with the Fibonacci extension level calculation, the first target below can still focus on the 3300 area. If this support platform is lost, the price will have a technical demand to further explore the 3320 integer mark. The current volume and price coordination shows that the market is brewing a new wave of trending market conditions. It is necessary to pay close attention to the breakthrough direction of the 3300-3380 range, which will determine the continuation or reversal of the medium-term trend. Taken together, the short-term operation of gold is recommended to be mainly longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3360-3380, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3320-3300.
Gold next moveAs of May 13, 2025, XAU/USD (gold) has experienced significant volatility, influenced by U.S.-China trade developments, central bank policies, and shifting investor sentiment. Here’s an updated outlook based on recent market activity and expert analyses.
⸻
📉 Recent Market Movements
• May 12 Decline: Gold prices fell over 3% to $2,228 per ounce, marking the largest daily loss since April 23. This drop followed progress in U.S.-China trade talks, which reduced global trade tensions and diminished gold’s appeal as a safe haven. 
• May 13 Recovery: On May 13, gold prices rebounded to $3,254.39 per ounce, driven by bargain-buying as investors took advantage of lower prices. The earlier decline in gold was prompted by a temporary U.S.-China tariff truce that boosted demand for riskier assets and weakened gold’s safe-haven status. 
⸻
📈 Technical Outlook
• Resistance Levels: Key resistance is observed at $2,726 (December 12 high) and $2,790 (all-time high). A breach above these levels could signal a continuation toward $3,009, $3,123, and $3,288. 
• Support Levels: Immediate support is at $2,582 (December 19 low), followed by $2,536 (November low), and the 200-day SMA at $2,511. A deeper pullback might retest $2,471 (September low). 
⸻
🔮 Expert Forecasts
• Citi Group: Projects gold prices to consolidate between $3,000 and $3,300, with a short-term target of $3,150. 
• Jeff Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital): Anticipates a 20% rally, targeting $4,000 per ounce, citing increased market volatility and gold’s role as a safe-haven asset. 
• Société Générale: Identifies potential objectives at $2,250 and $2,360, with a target near $2,460, following a breakout above a multi-year rectangle pattern. 
⸻
🧭 Summary Outlook
Gold’s near-term direction hinges on several factors: 
• Trade Relations: Further developments in U.S.-China trade talks could impact gold’s safe-haven demand. 
• Central Bank Policies: Decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central banks regarding interest rates and monetary easing will influence gold’s appeal. 
• Geopolitical Events: Ongoing geopolitical tensions may drive investors toward gold as a protective asset. 
Given the current technical setup and expert forecasts, gold may continue to test higher resistance levels, especially if supportive economic and geopolitical conditions persist.
THE KOG REPORT - Update End of day update from us here at KOG:
We can honestly say, even though the KOG Report plan didn't work out as we intended this week, it's been a phenomenal week on gold in Camelot. We've managed to capture the top (AGAIN), then bounced the low, then produced the FOMC KOG Report which gave us another level to level short with a pip perfect bounce for the long.
Early we published the play stating 3370 needs to break to go higher which it didn't giving the move downside that we're seeing now. Support here is below on this move if they manage to break through the 3300 level. No point attempting a long or short here as it's late session so the levels to watch are:
Support 3301 / 3296 and below that 3276
Resistance 3310 and above that 3320 which will need to break
As always, trade safe.
KOG
GOLD Gold prices are dropping in mid-May 2025 primarily due to easing geopolitical and trade tensions, which has reduced safe-haven demand and triggered a shift in investor sentiment:
Easing U.S.-China Trade Tensions: The United States and China have agreed to significantly lower tariffs and implemented a 90-day pause to finalize a broader trade agreement. This breakthrough has boosted global risk appetite, leading investors to move out of safe-haven assets like gold and into riskier assets such as equities. Major stock indexes have rallied on this optimism, further weakening gold’s appeal.
Reduced Geopolitical Risks: Optimism about a potential resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also contributed to the decline. Announcements of high-level diplomatic meetings between Russia and Ukraine have encouraged hopes for peace, further reducing the need for gold as a geopolitical hedge.
Technical Correction: Gold had recently surged to an all-time high of $3,500 per ounce, entering overbought territory. The current drop reflects a technical correction, with profit-taking and liquidation by futures traders accelerating the decline as key support levels were broken.
Stronger U.S. Dollar and Yields: A stronger U.S. dollar-buoyed by improved economic data and the completion of a technical bullish pattern in the USD Index-has also pressured gold lower. Rising U.S. Treasury yields, following a better-than-expected U.S. jobs report, increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, further weighing on prices.
In summary:
Gold prices are falling because improved trade and geopolitical conditions have reduced safe-haven demand, while technical selling and a stronger dollar amplify the decline. The market is experiencing a correction after recent record highs, but long-term structural drivers for gold remain intact.
GOLD Eiffel Tower M pattern now completeI have been posting gold charts since February 2024. Both Bullish and GTFO charts. See below.
This current setup has presented a great risk-reward setup.
1. GTFO still remains firmly in place.
2. The lower high M pattern could be setting up for a corrective bull flag for more upside.
If the Eiffel Tower plays out. You will not be involved.
If the corrective pattern plays out, you will have a clear, solid buy signal.
Click Boost, Follow and Subscribe for more updated data and info. Let's get to 5,000! ;))
Critical Reversal or Breakdown? | XAU/USD at Make-or-Break Zone📉 Chart Overview:
Instrument: XAU/USD (assumed from chart context)
Timeframe: 4H or Daily (based on candlestick size)
Indicators Used:
📏 EMA 50 (Red): 3,247.86
📏 EMA 200 (Blue): 3,221.42
🔍 RSI (14): Currently at 45.90 (below midline, showing weak momentum)
🔎 Key Zones:
🧱 Support Zone: ~3,180 – 3,220
Price is currently sitting on this key demand zone.
Price previously bounced here sharply ➡️ indicating buyer interest.
📦 Resistance Block: ~3,260 – 3,280
Short-term resistance, price has been repeatedly rejected from here.
🎯 Target Zone: ~3,420 – 3,460
If price breaks out from the support-resistance squeeze, this is the potential bullish target 🎯.
🧭 EMA Analysis:
EMA 50 is still above EMA 200 ➡️ Golden Cross formation (medium-term bullish bias) ✅
However, price is currently below both EMAs, signaling short-term weakness ❌
📉 Bearish Scenario (📍Blue Arrow Down):
If price breaks below the support zone at ~3,180, we could see a sharp drop toward the next support at ~3,032 🔻.
RSI is trending down near 40, close to oversold territory ⚠️
🚀 Bullish Scenario (📈 Blue Arrow Up):
A successful retest and bounce from this support area (currently forming a rounded bottom 🥄) could lead to a bullish move toward the target zone.
This is further supported by the potential RSI bounce from the 40 area, signaling renewed momentum 🔋.
✅ Bias & Conclusion:
Neutral-to-Bullish Bias 🤝: As long as the price holds above the major support zone (~3,180), buyers have a chance to reclaim higher levels.
Look for confirmation breakout above the local resistance (~3,260) for a move toward 3,400+ 🚀.
A breakdown below support would invalidate the bullish thesis and target 3,030 instead 📉.
🛠️ Trading Plan (not financial advice!):
Long Entry: On bullish breakout & retest of ~3,260 ✅
Stop-Loss: Below ~3,180 ⚠️
Target: ~3,420 – 3,460 🎯
Hanzo | Gold min Bullish Break– Confirming the Next Move🔥 GOLD – 15 Min Scalping Analysis (Bearish Setup)
Bias: Waiting For Break Out
Time Frame: 15 Min
Entry Type: Confirmed Entry After Break Out
Bullish After Break Out : 3154
🩸 Key Reasons for Entry:
☄️Strong bullish reaction from a refined demand zone.
☄️Entry based on Smart Money Concepts: Break of structure + order block confirmation.
☄️Confluence with higher time frame support or key level.
☄️Bullish engulfing / displacement candle shows clear intent.
☄️Market in premium-to-discount transition zone.
Hanzo | Gold min Bullish Break– Confirming the Next Move
Is there still a chance for short sellers to make a profit?At present, gold continues to rebound to around 3230, and the intraday rebound has reached $100. Today, both short trades have touched SL, giving back most of the profits of the long positions in the morning. So are there still opportunities for shorts to make profits?
I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for shorts. Although gold has rebounded strongly to around 3230, it will soon face the short-term resistance area of 3240-3245, which happens to be the 38.2% split area when it retreats from 3435 to 3120, so this area has a certain suppression effect on gold in the short term! Then there is the suppression effect of the area around 3260; so I think there are still considerable profit opportunities for gold shorts. As gold rebounds, the short-term support below is raised to 3200-3190, followed by 3175-3165.
Trading strategy:
Consider trying to short gold in the 3235-3245 area, TP: 3200-3190