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GOLD:Will the U.S. Dollar Cap Gold Gains?Analyzing Market TrendsGold prices have seen a surge in buying activity as the week begins, aiming to build upon the recovery initiated from a one-month low reached last Thursday. Analyzing the market from a technical perspective, we've observed the price hitting our pending order level. According to the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, retail traders remain bullish while commercial traders have shifted to a bearish stance over the past week. This dynamic suggests that we are anticipating a bearish continuation in gold prices despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, fears surrounding trade wars continue to create a backdrop that benefits the safe-haven appeal of gold. However, the strength of the U.S. Dollar (USD) presents a contrasting scenario that could further suppress gold prices. Recently, there has been a resurgence in dip-buying within the USD, fueled by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signals and rising U.S. Treasury yields. These factors are likely to impose additional constraints on gold, a non-yielding asset, limiting its upside potential. In summary, while the geopolitical landscape might support gold's appeal, the prevailing strength of the dollar could undermine any significant price increases in the near term. ✅ Please share your thoughts about GOLD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD rebound and limited, trading week with ChristmasUS economic data shows inflation is slowing. Supported by the weakening of the TVC:DXY and US Treasury bond interest rates, OANDA:XAUUSD continued to increase on Friday (December 18). However, the Fed's hawkish interest rate outlook caused gold prices to fall 0.9% last week. The Federal Reserve's headline inflation index (PCE) showed price pressures eased last month. According to data released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, excluding food and energy prices, increased by 0.1% over the previous month. in November, slower than the 0.3% increase in October. The increase was slightly lower than economists' expectations of 0.2%. On a yearly basis, core PCE rose 2.8%, matching the increase in October and below Wall Street expectations of 2.9%. Overall PCE increased 2.4% year-over-year, up from 2.3% in October. Earlier this month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes food and gas prices, showed prices rose 3.3% year-on-year in November, marking the fourth straight month of increases. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks price changes across companies, showed prices rose 3.4% year-on-year in November. The increase was higher October's 3.1% increase also exceeded economists' expectations of 3.2%. At a press conference following Wednesday's interest rate decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the final phase of the Fed's response to inflation will be more difficult than initially expected. “We were forecasting inflation at the end of the year, but as we got closer to the end of the year, the forecast was off a little bit,” Powell said. “I would say that's probably the biggest factor, inflation is once again missing expectations.” So far this year, inflation has slowed but remains above the Fed's 2% target, pressured by recent unexpectedly hot monthly "core" price growth data. According to the Fed's latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the Fed expects core inflation to peak at 2.5% next year, up from a forecast of 2.2% in September and falling to 2.0%. 2% in 2026 and 2027 to 2.0%. Higher inflation expectations, coupled with a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year, have weighed on markets. On the other hand, the election of Donald Trump as the next president has added to this uncertainty, with some economists suggesting that the United States could face another surge in inflation if Trump makes his move. True to his campaign promises. Policies proposed by Trump such as imposing high tariffs on imported goods, cutting taxes on businesses and restricting immigration could have an inflationary effect. These policies further complicate the Fed's future interest rate path. Data and events this week The market will also welcome the Christmas holiday this week, traders will focus on important events such as "where to get money to buy gifts for bears, where to go so as not to eat dog food, or open the door." Is it a pan or a greeting, honey,... I don't know but I wish you all a happy Christmas and good health hehe." However, some important economic data will be released. Economic data to watch out for this week Monday: US consumer confidence Tuesday: US sustainable goods, US new home sales Wednesday: Christmas break Thursday: US weekly unemployment claims Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD Gold recovered from the 0.786% Fibonacci level during the weekend trading session, but the recovery is also limited after testing the target resistance level noted by readers in the previous issue at the confluence of the upper edge. price channel and Fibonacci level 0.618%. Currently, the closing position still supports the possibility of a technical bearish price for gold, with the price channel as the main trend price channel, resistance from Fibonacci 0.618% and pressure at Ema21. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index is still operating below the 50 level, quite far from the oversold area, which shows that there is still quite a lot of room for price decline ahead. As long as gold remains below EMA21, within price channel, it still has a bearish technical outlook and the notable points are listed below. Support: 2,591 – 2,552 – 2,538USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,656USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2646 - 2644⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2650 →Take Profit 1 2639 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2634 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2604 - 2606⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2600 →Take Profit 1 2611 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2616
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
GOLD → Interest rates are dropping, so why is gold falling?Hello, dear friends! Ben here! Gold prices remain consolidated below the $2,600 level following a strong two-way price movement in the previous session and stay near their lowest point in over a month. The primary reason for the decline in gold prices is the recent decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates by an additional 0.25%. While this move was widely anticipated, the Fed also indicated that it plans to reduce rates at a slower pace in 2025. The impact of recent Fed rate cuts had already been priced into gold. At this point, investors are eager to know how many rate cuts the Fed will execute in 2025. According to the Fed's latest interest rate projections, only two rate cuts are expected in 2025, compared to four cuts projected in the September forecast. In theory, the Fed’s hawkish stance has worked effectively: the dollar has strengthened, and the markets have weakened. Today, all eyes are on GDP and the PCE data—an index the Fed considers a key measure of inflation. From a technical perspective, after retesting the previously broken channel boundary and an imbalance zone, gold prices have dropped further. As a result, a clear trend is emerging that warrants close observation. If the price fails to hold above the critical support level around $2,586/ounce, it is highly likely to decline toward the $2,521/ounce area. Sincerely, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
XAUUSD-Selling Rallies Amid Bearish StructureXAUUSD-Selling Rallies Amid Bearish Structure In my analysis of XAU/USD yesterday, I highlighted that after the 800-pip drop, a rebound was likely. However, given the weekly Pin Bar and the bearish daily structure, I emphasized that any upward move should be viewed as a correction and an opportunity to sell. Indeed, the market did see a rebound, but it was weak and short-lived. After reaching the 2665 zone, the price reversed to the downside and ended the day with minimal change. Currently, the price sits at 2652, with the recent lows now acting as confluent support, reinforced by the rising trendline from the recent bottom. A decisive break below this support zone would shift focus to the next key level at 2610-2615. My strategy remains unchanged: I continue to look for selling opportunities on rallies.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by piotr-Redzik
GOLD Analysis and ForecastGOLD is trading around 2,602. bouncing off the low of 2,582. Now the price is above 2,600 which means it could continue its rise in the next few hours and reach the 21 SMA around 2,645. Technically, XAU/USD is below the key pivot point located at 2,656 which means that it could reach the 200 EMA located at 2,512 in the short term and even reach the psychological level of $2,500. Our outlook is bearish, so we will look for opportunities to sell below 2,590. Besides, in case it bounces back to 4/8 Murray, it will be seen as an opportunity to sell. Technically, we can see that gold has reached oversold levels on the 4H chart. The gap left at 2,562 remains to be covered. All this means that gold could make a strong fall and then make a sustained technical rebound. Our trading plan for the next few hours is to sell gold if it falls below 2,590 or buy above 2,600 with targets at 2,645 and 2,656.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by CEO-PREMIUM-ANALYSIS
Gold Analysis December 20⭐️Fundamental Analysis Gold prices maintained a buying bias in the first half of the European session on Friday amid prevailing risk-off sentiment. Amid persistent geopolitical risks and trade war concerns, the threat of a US government shutdown prompted some safe-haven flows into bullion. C The Federal Reserve's hawkish signal that it will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025 acted as a driver for US bond yields and favored USD bulls. Traders now look to the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, which could influence the USD price dynamics and act as a driver for gold prices in the US session. ⭐️Technical Analysis Gold rebounded from 2587. This zone became a resistance zone but is no longer too strong if the selling pressure is strong. The important zone at the moment is around 2607. When this zone breaks before the middle of the European session, the target of 2622 will be where SELL signals can be considered. If the US session breaks this zone, we have two possible resistance zones, the first SEL around 2633-2635 and when this zone breaks, we must aim for 2658-2660. If it fails to break 2607, set SELL to 2555. ⭐️Trading signals SELL GOLD zone 2622-2624 Stoloss 2627 SELL GOLD zone 2633-2635 Stoploss 2638 BUY GOLD zone 2656-2654 Stoploss 2651 BUY Scalp 2692-2690 Stoploss 2687
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
GOLD tries to recover after the holidayOn this trading day, gold traders OANDA:XAUUSD will need to focus on data on initial jobless claims in the US, which could have an impact on market trends in the short term. The seasonally adjusted number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the week of December 21 will be released today (Thursday) and is expected to be 224,000. Data released last week showed initial jobless claims in the United States fell from 242,000 to 220,000 in the week ended December 14, below expectations of 230,000, showing signs that the labor market movement is still steady. If the latest initial unemployment claims turn out to be lower than expected, this will have a positive impact on the US Dollar and a negative impact on the price of gold and major non-US currencies. Analysis of technical prospects for OANDA:XAUUSD On the daily chart, gold has recovered from the technical level of $2,613, but the recovery is still limited by the upper edge of the price channel, along with the nearest resistance level noted at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement point. % and EMA21. Considering the current price position, gold still has a technical outlook of falling in price with the main trend being noticed by the price channel. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index has not yet surpassed the 50 level, the 50 level is considered resistance/support depending on the position of the RSI and on the current daily chart it is considered a resistance. In the short term, if gold falls below the technical level of $2,613 it will have room to fall a bit further with a target level then around $2,600 and more to the $2,592 price point of the 0.786% Fibonacci retracement. . As long as gold does not break above the price channel, with price activity stabilizing above the EMA21, it remains biased to the downside, with notable levels listed below. Along with that, using POC Volume Profile, at 2,646USD there is also a large trading volume, this position should also be considered a technical resistance. Support: 2,613 – 2,600 – 2,592USD Resistance: 2,634 – 2,646USD SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2651 - 2649⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2655 →Take Profit 1 2644 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2639 BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2589 - 2591⚡️ ↠↠ Stoploss 2585 →Take Profit 1 2596 ↨ →Take Profit 2 2601
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Xayah_trading
XAUUSD Revision 25 December 2024Hello Nation! It’s Christmas. Happy holidays to all who are celebrating it. Let’s do a bit of homework. The market tend to slow down towards the end of the year. I am just doing this update for my own reference. For me personally, i did not take any entry or trades today, maybe for the next few days. I might just wait for 2025. I have made preparations and plans for 2025 and i hope you do too. Planing and preparation are very important. The new year is definitely a good time to reset, restart and refresh your journey. As for today, nothing much that i can say. Gold is still sideways on the Higher Time Frames. We open up bullish up to mid London session. I see like a Double top pattern at the H1 zone. With the M15 box. I would say that’s a setup or a hint for to entry sell. Price moved down, a good reaction but it did not even touch 100 Pips. We are still ranging within 2620 - 2610. I would prefer to take a break. Let the new year come. Enjoy your Holidays!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Mann20pips
XAUUSD: Bullish trend intact. Cycle target 3,100Gold may just be neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.126, MACD = -15.410, ADX = 31.343) due to the December's consolidation but on the 1M timeframe the Channel Up is very much intact and is immitating that of 2019 so far. Basically since late 2020, Gold has been replicating the post-2016 Cycle, which started with a 3 year accumulation period that led to the 2019-2020 Channel Up. This topped on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. This is enough for us to keep us bullish (TP = 3,100). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by InvestingScope
XAUUSD SELL ANALYSISHello dear viewers i hope you are all fine today i am going to share my analysis of gold (xauusd) kindly drop your thoughts and ideas. gold market is currently running in selling zone because 2632 is strong resistance. market can touch to our first target 2620 if it dont break the resistance (selling zone). if gold market goes down from 2632 to 2620 then it will further down to 2610 KEY POINTS SELLING ZONE 2630/2632 FIRST TARGET 2620 LAST TARGET 2010 Dont forget to like, follow and comment follow me for more analysis and updates
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ExpertJasmine
Gold UpdateGold has formed: 1- Valid ascending channel (in blue) with multiple touches . 2- Head & Shoulders (in yellow). 3- Resistance on the right shoulder. As long as the right shoulder resistance still stand with no broken candle, both 2 & 3 are still valid and considered as good strategies Now we’re waiting for an H8 candle to broke and close clearly under the last touch (trigger point) of the our blue channel and to retest and get rejected from below of the channel so we can enter a Short (sell) trade Follow us for more ideas and updates
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by HazTheTrader
"Sell every High's on Gold"Technical analysis: Gold is displaying extreme durability as despite the Bearish pressure provided by the Technical necessity for the Lower High’s Lower zone extension, the parallel relief rally of DX and uptrend on Bond Yields, the Spot prices (Gold) was testing #2,582.80 - #2,592.80 Support zone throughout yesterday’s session, extending the range to #2,552.80 - #2,622.80 (Medium-term break-out levels). In addition to that, yesterday’s session High’s bounced exactly on the pressure point which is a sign that Bearish full scale reversal might not be far away, but will be surely postponed if today’s #2,611.80 - #2,613.80 Short-term Resistance cluster gives away and result as an #10 - #15 point recovery Intra-day. Daily chart remains an healthy Descending Channel but at the same time, Weekly chart (#1W) is on Negative gradient so only a new Higher High's Lower zone extension test can restore the Short-term Bullish sentiment (#2,622.80 or above towards #2,627.80 - #2,632.80). As I have closed all my my Selling order, I assume no new orders for the moment. My position: The Trade remains "Sell every High's on Gold" and remember as long as DX is Trading on upside numbers, recovery on Gold will remain very limited. I will either re-Sell Gold now with #2,582.80 Target, or await one of my upside re-Sell areas to re-Sell Gold towards Lower levels. I am looking at #2,552.80 benchmark test initially as I expect Gold to remain pressured on both Intra-day and Short-term basis.
TVC:GOLDShort
by goldenBear88
XAUUSD . market target 2612 entry point 2624 stop loss 2632Here's a summary of your trade plan for XAU/USD (Gold/US Dollar): Trade Plan 1. _Target_: $2612 2. _Entry Point_: $2624 3. _Stop Loss_: $2632 Your plan indicates a bearish outlook, expecting the gold price to drop from the entry point to the target. Key Considerations 1. _Risk Management_: Ensure you're managing risk with proper position sizing. 2. _Market Conditions_: Monitor market conditions, including economic indicators, geopolitical events, and technical analysis. 3. _Trade Adjustment_: Be prepared to adjust your trade plan if market conditions change. Would you like me to provide current XAU/USD market data, analysis, or insights?
TVC:GOLDShort
by Stvenexpert
What happens next?In the weekly time frame we may be in the phase of correction A and B may be forming now and this move may lead us to 2726 first and then 2791 after because up move is strong. Than maybe price starts falling . Technically it is possible to hit 2535 but considering the global enviroment 2600 can be a support. But no one knows yet. Middle and the left one showe the subwaves. The first in the left is not fully shown but it looks like 5-3-5 correction has been completed. Following the daily close will give more data to predict actually. In daily it is still bearish but in 4h it may start and up move. In weekly it is bullish. If price is above 2610 this possibility will be still valid.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ForexFox_SA