Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it will be helpful to youAnalysis of the Original Text: Drivers of Gold Price and Logic of Bull-Bear Game
I. Fed Policy Expectations: The Core Catalyst for Short-Term Volatility
1.The Game Between Internal Divergence and Market ExpectationsThe divergence within the Fed on the path of interest rate cuts reflects uncertainties in monetary policy:
- Dovish camp (Daly): Explicitly supports two rate cuts by the end of 2025, conveying a loose tendency, which is bullish for gold (precious metals generally benefit from low-interest-rate environments).
- Hawkish camp (Logan): Emphasizes data dependency, implying a high threshold for rate cuts, which may suppress market speculative sentiment.Currently, market expectations for a rate cut in June are extremely low (2.2%), but the probability of a rate cut in September exceeds 80%, reflecting the market's preference for a "delayed easing" logic. This divergence in expectations may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices while maintaining an upward central trend in the long term.
2.The "Watershed" Role of Nonfarm Payroll DataThe May nonfarm payroll data to be released on June 6 is a key factor for short-term pricing:
- If the data is weak (new jobs <150,000 + slow wage growth): It will strengthen market concerns about an economic slowdown, and expectations for rate cuts may heat up ahead of schedule, pushing gold prices above the $3,320 resistance level (corresponding to a technical breakout point for changed Fed policy expectations).
- If the data is strong (new jobs >200,000): It may delay rate cut expectations and trigger short-term selling, with gold prices possibly falling to $3,250 (corresponding to the previous support level and the cost range of the People's Bank of China's gold purchases).Underlying logic: Nonfarm payroll data affects gold through expectations of real interest rates (nominal rates - inflation). Since gold does not generate interest, a decline in real interest rates reduces holding costs, tending to push prices higher.
II. Gold Purchases by the People's Bank of China: A "Safety Cushion" for Long-Term Bulls
1.The Strategic Significance of Sustained Purchases
- As of April 2025, China's gold reserves reached 2,294.51 tons, with net purchases for seven consecutive months, approaching the psychological threshold of 2,300 tons. Such purchases feature a clear "buy-the-dip" strategy, creating dense buying support in the $3,250-$3,300 range and forming technical support (similar to institutional investors' "dollar-cost averaging" strategy to smooth out price fluctuations).
- If gold purchase data continues to show net purchases in May (expected +2 tons), it will signal that "central banks are bullish on gold," potentially attracting follow-on buying (e.g., commercial banks, sovereign funds) and strengthening the long-term upward trend.
2.The Structural Support from the Global Central Bank Gold Buying TideIn Q1 2025, global central banks purchased over 300 tons of gold net, with emerging markets (China, Poland, India, etc.) as the main buyers, reflecting the enhanced strategic value of gold as a reserve asset against the backdrop of de-dollarization. This trend is different from short-term speculation, being long-term and persistent, providing a "bottom-raising" impetus for gold prices, especially during Fed policy vacuums (e.g., June-September).
IV. Conclusion: Consolidation Phase, Focus on "Data Breakthrough" and "Central Bank Allocation"
Gold is currently in a balance between "policy expectation games" and "central bank gold purchase support." The short-term direction depends on the "marginal changes" in nonfarm data, while the long term is driven by global de-dollarization and central bank asset allocation needs. Investors should set observation windows at key levels ($3,250/$3,300/$3,325), dynamically adjust positions by combining macro events and technical signals, and avoid excessive trading in volatile markets.
Analysis of gold trend next week, hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD BUY@3270~3275
SL3260
TP1:3310~3320
