GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold May Dip Mildly Before US Data📊 Market Overview:
Spot gold is trading around $3,329/oz, up ~0.1%, supported by falling U.S. Treasury yields and a slightly weaker dollar, while investors await potential Fed dovish signals or rate cut in September . Meanwhile, easing U.S.–EU trade tensions weighed on safe-haven demand for gold.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: ~$3,335–3,350 (recent highs and potential test zone)
• Nearest Support: ~$3,310 (previous stable support)
• EMA09 position: Price is above EMA9, indicating a mild bullish bias in the short term
• Momentum/Volume: RSI ~53 (neutral), MACD & StochRSI showing small buy signals. However, bullish momentum is fading, suggesting a possible mild pullback
📌 Conclusion:
Gold may dip modestly toward $3,310 if the dollar strengthens or if Fed rate-cut expectations recede. A break above $3,335–3,350 could pave the way for further gains, though current momentum remains insufficient to confirm a breakout.
💡 Suggested Trade Strategy:
SELL XAU/USD: $3,333–3,336
🎯 Take Profit: 40/80/200 pips
❌ Stop Loss: $3339
BUY XAU/USD: $3,310–3,308
🎯 Take Profit: 40/80/200 pips
❌ Stop Loss: $3305
The latest trend analysis and layout of the day,flexible adoptio#XAUUSD
⚠️News focus on the Sino-US trade talks, which may affect the gold trend.
Since the opening of the market today, gold has been fluctuating in a narrow range in the short term, without giving a clear trading direction🤔, and the short-term trend has not changed much.📊
🚦It remains constrained by resistance and a downward trend. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the 3300 mark below and the support of 3295-3285📈. On the upside, we should pay attention to the short-term suppression level of 3321-3333 and yesterday's high of 3345-3350.📉
In the short term, as long as it does not break through yesterday's high point, the volatile downward trend will not change. 🐂Once it breaks through, the short-term decline will stop, and the market will continue the bull rebound to test 3370~3380 or even 3400 before falling again.
Therefore, short-term trading focuses on the 3300 mark below and the long trading opportunities at 3295-3285. On the upside, defend the 3345-3350 highs and establish short positions.🎯
🚀 BUY 3310-3330
🚀 TP 3321-3333
🚀 BUY 3295-3285
🚀 TP 3310-3330
🚀 SELL 3320-3330
🚀 TP 3310-3300
🚀 SELL 3345-3350
🚀 TP 3330-3285
Bulls continue to be active following NFP data⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold (XAU/USD) slips toward $3,360 in early Asian trading on Monday, snapping a two-day winning streak. However, disappointing U.S. job data and lingering tariff concerns could pressure the U.S. Dollar and help cushion the downside for the Dollar-denominated metal.
The yellow metal is under pressure from a recovering Greenback, though gains may remain capped as weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has strengthened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the near term.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
Buyers maintained early in the week, continuing to move towards higher resistances: 3374, 3387
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3374- 3376 SL 3381
TP1: $3365
TP2: $3350
TP3: $3333
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3328-$3326 SL $3321
TP1: $3335
TP2: $3348
TP3: $3360
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
GOLD | Bullish Mitigation + Inducement Lining Up For Execution(Refined & Structured):
• Pair: XAUUSD (Gold)
• Bias: Bullish
• 4H Overview: Gold broke last week’s previous high, then pulled back and mitigated this week’s order block within the same range. A significant internal high (turnover HH) has now been broken, and price retraced to sweep liquidity and tap into the OB zone.
• 30M Structure: Now watching for a clean pullback into a refined OB after taking out sell-side liquidity/inducement. Structure is aligning perfectly for the next leg up.
• Entry Zone: Once price enters the OB zone, I’ll be watching the 5M for church-level confirmation. Execution follows once LTF speaks clearly.
• Targets: 5M to 30M structural highs depending on delivery.
• Mindset Note: I’m not rushing. Just following structure and reading price. Analysis mode right now—execution comes once price gives the sermon.
GOLD - WAVE 5 BULLISH TO $3,734 (UPDATE)As I said on our last update, this 'Gold Bullish Scenario' remains valid as price has still failed to close below $3,245 (Wave 2) low.
As long as Gold remains above Wave 2 high ($3,245), this Gold bullish bias remains an option. As traders we always have to be prepared to adapt to different market conditions.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD, August 4, 2025📊
🔍 Momentum Analysis:
D1 Timeframe: Momentum continues to rise strongly. It's expected that the price will keep rising for at least two more trading days, pushing the momentum indicator into the overbought territory, reinforcing the current bullish trend.
H4 Timeframe: Momentum is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal, indicating a possible corrective pullback during Monday’s trading session.
H1 Timeframe: Momentum is strongly bullish, especially evident from the powerful upward move on Friday. Price may continue rising at the open of the Asian session, potentially creating a Gap. However, caution is advised, as this Gap could signal exhaustion.
📌 Wave Pattern Analysis:
Given Friday's strong price action, the primary scenario currently favors wave 3 within the 5-wave bullish structure (12345 – black). However, we cannot entirely eliminate the possibility that this is wave C within an ABC corrective structure (black).
Presently, the price is forming a smaller 5-wave bullish structure (blue), likely in the final wave 5. Attention should be paid to two critical target zones:
🎯 Blue Wave 5 Targets:
• Target 1: 3368
• Target 2: 3385
⚠️ Next Scenario:
Upon completing the blue 5-wave structure, a corrective move downward will occur.
• If the correction does not break below 3315, the larger 5-wave bullish structure (12345 – black) is confirmed, and the price will continue upward to complete black wave 5.
• If the correction breaks below 3315, the structure shifts to an ABC corrective pattern (black), increasing the likelihood of a deeper decline to complete the larger corrective wave C (red).
🧩 Combining Momentum & Wave Analysis:
• D1 momentum strongly supports the continuation of the bullish trend.
• H4 momentum forecasts a short-term bearish correction on Monday, aligning with the formation of wave 4 correction.
• H1 momentum suggests the possibility of a Gap at Monday's Asian session open, marking the beginning of a corrective pullback as momentum reverses.
🎯 Short-term Trading Plan:
We will trade the current blue wave 5 with the following limit order plan:
✅ Sell Limit Zone: 3385 – 3387
⛔️ Stop Loss (SL): 3399
🎯 Take Profit (TP1): 3368
🎯 Take Profit (TP2): 3355
📌 Note:
The detailed trading plan for capturing the larger wave 4 correction (black) will be updated once sufficient evidence confirms the completion of the blue wave 5.
Happy trading, everyone! 🚀
Gold Plan B For 4 Aug onwardsAs you can see that gold is moving good in channel of Bullish so next hurdle can be 3374-3380 and then it can retest the support of Non-Farm 3336-3340 and then continue this channel till further 3452-3458 and then we can expect a big fall in gold and this time support point will be 3290-3300 which will hold gold to go up again.
GOLD – SMC ProTrading Breakdown Plan Next WEEK GOLD – SMC ProTrading Breakdown | Clinton Scalper | 4H Timeframe
XAUUSD is currently displaying clear institutional order flow behavior after a deep liquidity sweep at the end of July. Here’s a full breakdown using advanced SMC (Smart Money Concepts) methodology:
🔍 1. Liquidity Sweep at the Low
Price maintained a series of lower highs and bearish structure until it executed a classic liquidity grab between 3,270 – 3,290. This is a textbook move by Smart Money: sweep retail stop orders before initiating a reversal.
This zone aligned with:
✅ Untapped Fair Value Gap (FVG)
✅ Reversal Order Block (OB)
✅ Fibo 0.236 of the mid-term bullish leg
After the sweep, the market printed a micro CHoCH, indicating early signs of smart money accumulation.
🧠 2. CHoCH → BOS → Reaccumulation Structure
CHoCH (Change of Character) marks the first break in the bearish microstructure – suggesting a possible shift.
Then, price delivered a BOS (Break of Structure) around the 3,334 zone, confirming bullish intent.
Buy-side is now:
Positioned from a deep discount zone
Mitigating key inefficiencies
Targeting higher liquidity zones above current price
Price is currently reacting to a previous supply OB around 3,362.
📐 3. Institutional Order Flow & Target Zones
Now that price is in a key reaction zone, we prepare for two high-probability scenarios:
🅰️ Continuation Scenario (Reaccumulation)
A retracement to the 3,317–3,311 zone (Fibo 0.5–0.618) could offer a premium re-entry
This area is stacked with:
FVG
Order Block
Equal lows liquidity
🔼 From there, potential targets include:
🎯 TP1: 3,371 – previous imbalance zone
🎯 TP2: 3,392 – minor liquidity cluster
🎯 TP3: 3,429 – premium OB and high-liquidity zone
🅱️ Distribution Scenario (Bearish Rejection)
If price fails to hold bullish structure and forms a bearish CHoCH around 3,392–3,429
This would signal a distribution zone, and potential reversal back toward 3,290 support
🔂 4. Smart Money Flow Logic
“Smart Money doesn’t follow price. They lead price to liquidity.”
This chart reflects the complete Sweep → CHoCH → BOS → Mitigation → Expansion sequence. A classic SMC Pro model where:
Liquidity is engineered and swept
Structure is shifted
Price returns to mitigate institutional entries
Price expands into external liquidity
📌 Clinton Scalper Outlook:
We don’t chase reversals – we track the footprints of capital. The real edge is understanding where smart money is positioned, and aligning with their narrative.
🔔 Stay tuned for continued updates using this precise and probability-driven Pro SMC framework.
I maintain my #3,277.80 and #3,252.80 TargetsI didn't engaged any re-Sell orders throughout yesterday's session and re-Sold Gold on #3,295.80 ahead of Asian session, with plan to keep orders over-night. However due NFP, Gold might be stationary / ranging until the news as I closed both of my orders on #3,291.80 / each #9.000 Eur Profit and my #3,300.80 pending Sell limit has been triggered over-night which is now running in Profits with Stop on breakeven. I do expect #3,277.80 and #3,252.80 Targets to be met within #1 - #3 sessions and if there aren't NFP numbers, I would keep all three orders / set of Selling orders maintaining my first #3,277.80 Target. Due the news, Gold might fluctuate within Neutral Rectangle until the news.
Technical analysis: My earlier Selling configuration / Technical expectations was confirmed on Hourly 4 chart under prolonged weakness and Price-action respecting the trend-line guarding the downtrend (very Bearish formation) as Hourly 1 chart is already an aggressive Descending Channel (width opened on Williams) that should reach it’s next local Low’s (currently Trading slightly below Double Bottom) and Oversold state near my take Profit of #3,252.80 benchmark. If the bands are widened Traders may witness #3,277.80 test, also if gets invalidated and #3,270.80 gives away, #3,252.80 mark extension test is inevitable. In any case I will update my Targets or levels of Profit taking if I decide to exit earlier than #3,252.80 benchmark to be in accordance with the Daily chart’s period / I already ride Selling wave since #,3,300's and my Profit will be already good to ignore.
My position: DX is soaring, Gold is under Bearish Technical developments and #3,252.80 benchmark is my final Target of current Selling leg. Only factor which can reverse this Intra-day but not postpone is NFP. I expect downside Jobs surprise which may reverse DX from local High's however hot upside surprise will make Gold test #3,252.80 Intra-day. NFP or not I do believe Gold is Bearish. Trade accordingly.
XAUUSD: BUYThere are some good trading opportunities in the market. That's when to buy. Gold prices haven't fallen further since falling back to 3390. There's no further negative news. Therefore, there won't be a significant short-term decline. Our focus will be on tomorrow's non-farm payroll data update. This is a crucial factor that can cause gold prices to rise or fall significantly in the short term.
I'll update you with real-time buy and sell opportunities. This is based on research from the Swing Trading Center. It's highly authoritative. Don't miss out! Remember to stay tuned.
XAUUSD: BUY 3292-3282 TP 3320. SL 3265
Gold remains below trend line ahead of FOMCAhead of today's US GDP and FOMC policy decision, gold was trading little-changed. The metal has breached its 2025 bullish trendline, which was positioned in the $3,330–$3,350 area. This breakdown shifts the technical outlook to mildly bearish, although further downside confirmation is needed through the loss of additional support levels to solidify bearish control.
From a bullish standpoint, the metal must reclaim and hold above the broken trendline to reignite upward momentum. However, the longer it remains below the $3,330–$3,350 zone, the greater the likelihood of a short-term correction—particularly if the immediate support at $3,300 fails. A break below this level would expose the June low at $3,247 as the next significant support.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
On the upside, resistance is now stacked at $3,350, $3,385, and $3,430
7/30: Watch for Sell Opportunities in the 3352–3363 ZoneGood morning, everyone!
After a period of consolidation and decline, gold has found preliminary support near the 3300 level, and early signs of a bottom formation are emerging. The key technical level now lies around the 3332–3337 resistance zone. Based on current price structure, a breakout is likely, with major resistance seen at 3352–3358, while 3323–3316 serves as the primary support range.
However, caution is warranted as today’s ADP employment data may significantly influence short-term price action. Whether gold can hold above the 3337–3343 level depends on the data's impact.
From a broader perspective:
On the weekly chart, the 20-period moving average (MA20) has climbed to around 3276, yet the overall structure remains bearish for bulls
On the daily chart, gold is still trading below the MA60, facing notable resistance
This week's key events — ADP (Wednesday), jobless claims, and NFP (Thursday and Friday) — will likely shape gold’s medium-term trend
Trading Strategy for Today:
Focus on the 3313–3353 trading range, and be highly responsive to data-driven volatility.
Important note: If gold rises to 3343–3358 before the ADP release, then regardless of whether the data is bullish or bearish, the preferred approach is to sell into strength, as a post-data pullback is a likely scenario.
XAUUSD – TCB Strategy Setup✅ TCB Strategy Analysis
Trend Phase
HTF Bias: Recently shifted from bearish to potential bullish — clear breakout from descending channel.
Current Structure: Price has broken above channel and retested former structure resistance (~3325) as support.
Bias: Bullish continuation forming.
🚨 XAUUSD – TCB Strategy Setup (EP1 Active, EP2 Pending) 💥
Price just broke out of the descending channel and is now forming a solid base above the 3325 zone.
✅ EP1 (Pullback Buy) already triggered after price retested support.
📍 EP2 will activate on clean breakout + retest of 3330 zone.
🎯 Targets:
• TP1: 3348
• TP2: 3356–3360
If price loses 3325 structure, we reassess. For now, I’m bullish while structure holds.
This setup aligns 100% with the TCB Strategy:
Trend Phase: Bullish structure forming
Countertrend: Liquidity sweep + reclaim
Breakout Phase: Incoming on 3330 retest
🧠 Flow with structure, not emotion.
💬 Drop your comment if you're trading Gold too.
#TCBFlow #XAUUSD #GoldAnalysis #SmartMoney #BreakoutTrading #FlowWithTCB
Downward Pressure Resumes After Channel BreakdownXAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD – Downward Pressure Resumes After Channel Breakdown: Key Levels and Strategy for Today
As of the July 29 session, gold (XAUUSD) remains under short-term bearish pressure, having broken below the descending price channel on the 1H timeframe. The market structure confirms a dominant bearish trend as price continues to trade below the EMAs cluster.
1. Price Action and Market Behavior
XAUUSD is forming a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend.
Price is currently hovering around $3,316 after breaking below the lower boundary of the channel, signaling potential continuation of the sell-off.
2. Key Resistance and Support Levels
Immediate resistance: 3,337 – 3,346 USD (aligned with EMA20, EMA50 and prior channel resistance).
Major resistance: 3,378 – 3,385 USD (confluence of Fibo and former high).
Near-term support: 3,300 USD (psychological level).
Major support: 3,248 USD (projected target based on measured move from channel height).
3. Technical Indicators
EMA20 and EMA50 are both below EMA200, forming a classic “death cross” – a strong bearish signal.
Volume increased on the breakdown, reinforcing the strength of bearish momentum.
RSI remains below 50, indicating weak bullish retracements and room for further downside.
4. Trading Strategy
Primary Strategy: Sell on Rally
Ideal entry zone: 3,331 – 3,346 USD.
Stop Loss: Above 3,353 USD (above key resistance zone).
TP1: 3,300 USD.
TP2: 3,248 USD (extended target based on breakout structure).
Alternative Strategy: Countertrend Long
Only consider buy setups if strong reversal candles and bullish RSI divergence appear near 3,248 USD.
XAUUSD continues to face downside risk after the channel breakdown. Unless bulls reclaim the 3,337 – 3,346 zone, price is more likely to drift lower toward 3,300 and potentially 3,248. Traders should remain patient and wait for clean setups around these key zones.
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Gold fell below support. What will be the subsequent trend?The 1-hour moving average of gold continues to show a downward short position, indicating that the downward momentum is still sufficient; the wave pattern of gold's current decline remains intact, but the rebound strength is very weak, showing an obvious short trend of gold. Moreover, when gold rebounded in the short term, obvious resistance began to form above 3320, and the upward momentum was slightly insufficient.
From the daily chart, before 3300 fails to fall, it is likely to fluctuate around 3300-3350. On the contrary, if it falls below 3300, it is likely to reach the bottom of the 3385-3375 range.
This week is a super data week. The data of each day may affect the trend of gold on that day, but it will not form a unilateral strong trend. Therefore, the volatility before and after the data is released is likely to be large, so traders should focus on the following data:
1. US ADP employment report, US second quarter GDP preliminary value;
2. Federal Reserve interest rate decision;
3. US PCE annual rate, monthly rate;
4. The last trading day of this week will usher in non-agricultural data.
Institutional Footprint Detected Gold Hits FVG + Breaker Block.GOLD has now entered a significant confluence zone, aligning with both a bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG) and a breaker block areas commonly respected by institutional algorithms. In the process, it has also swept sell-side liquidity resting below recent lows, which often serves as fuel for a reversal. This combination of technical factors suggests a high-probability scenario for a bullish bounce from this region.
Traders should closely monitor price behavior around the marked Equal Relative Liquidity (ERL) zone for additional confirmation before executing any trades.
Always conduct your own analysis (DYOR) and manage risk accordingly.