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XAUUSD MARKET UPDATE 19 - 06 - 2025This chart presents a technical analysis of Gold CFDs (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe. Here's a breakdown of the key elements: Chart Structure & Patterns: Descending Channel: Price has been consolidating in a downward-sloping channel (marked in blue). Projected Move: The sketch on the chart shows a potential false breakdown below the channel support, followed by a strong bullish reversal. Support Zone: Around $3,321.534 to $3,341, highlighted in green/red — this is the expected reversal zone. Resistance/Target Zone: A sharp upward arrow suggests the price could move towards the $3,453.550 area, the previous high and a key resistance. Current Price: $3,373.133 (as per the chart), sitting near the middle of the channel. Analysis Summary: This is a bullish setup expecting: 1. A dip to retest or fake out below the channel. 2. Reversal from the demand zone (highlighted green). 3. Breakout from the descending channel leading to a strong rally. Invalidation likely occurs below $3,321. Trade Idea (based on the chart): Buy near: $3,340–$3,325 Stop loss: Below $3,321 Target: $3,440–$3,453 Would you like a written trading plan or risk management breakdown for this idea?
TVC:GOLDLong
by Mr_Zakrii
GOLD The relationship between gold, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, and interest rates has traditionally been a key focus for investors. Historically, gold prices and bond yields have shown a strong inverse correlation, but recent years have seen some deviations due to shifting macroeconomic and geopolitical dynamics. 1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield Inverse Correlation: For nearly two decades, gold and the 10-year Treasury yield moved in opposite directions: rising yields made bonds more attractive relative to gold (which pays no interest), causing gold prices to fall, and vice versa. Recent Divergence: Since 2022, this relationship has weakened. Despite rising yields, gold prices have remained strong or even increased, largely due to unprecedented central bank gold buying and heightened geopolitical risks. Current Data: As of June 16, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.46%, up from 4.20% a year ago. Gold prices remain elevated, reflecting persistent demand despite higher yields. 2. Gold and Interest Rates Opportunity Cost Effect: Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, typically leading to lower gold prices. When rates fall, gold becomes more attractive, supporting price gains. Real Interest Rates: The most relevant metric is the real interest rate (nominal rate minus inflation). Gold’s correlation with real yields is strongly negative (historically around -0.82): when real yields fall or turn negative, gold prices rise as investors seek alternatives to low or negative real returns. Central Bank Policy: Expectations of rate cuts by major central banks, such as the Federal Reserve, tend to boost gold prices by lowering real yields and the dollar’s appeal. Real interest rates (adjusted for inflation) are the most important driver for gold’s price direction. As of June 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.46%, with markets watching for potential rate cuts that could further support gold prices. Conclusion: While gold traditionally moves opposite to bond yields and interest rates, the relationship has become more complex in 2025. Central bank demand, geopolitical risks, and real interest rates now play a larger role in gold price dynamics alongside traditional monetary policy factors.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
1
Buy on dips and seize rising opportunities📰 Impact of news: 1. Geopolitical risks 2. Expected Fed policy 📈 Market analysis: The market opened higher in the morning and then continued to fall. From a medium-term perspective, the market is still in a medium-term bullish position. The price will only be under further pressure if it breaks below the weekly support. Observing from the daily level, the price broke through the daily resistance again last Wednesday and continued to soar after the breakthrough. The current price is testing the monthly high, and the subsequent gains and losses of the previous high are the key. Judging from the 1H chart, the short-term death cross continues to fall. At the same time, according to the 4H level, as time goes by, we need to pay attention to the support of 3413-3403. This support is the key watershed of the short-term trend. As long as it does not fall below this support, the bulls still have a chance. 🏅 Trading strategies: BUY 3413-3403 TP 3430-3440 If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices. OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by AllenBoswell-2
Gold prices look set to reach a fresh ATHGold prices are up on Israel's attack on Iran, as traders and investors buy to hedge against inflation and the higher geopolitical war. Watch the video to learn what levels traders are watching. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ThinkMarkets
June 19, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary: Gold continues to trade within the 3365–3400 range without a decisive breakout. Today’s strategy: Sell near resistance, buy near support while the range holds. If price holds above 3386, bullish momentum may gradually strengthen. 🔍 Key Levels to Watch: • 3420 – Resistance • 3406 – Range top • 3400 – Psychological level • 3396 – Resistance • 3386 – Bull-bear divider • 3380 – Resistance • 3371 – Support • 3365 – Intraday key support • 3350 – Midpoint support 📉 Intraday Strategy: 1. SELL if price breaks below 3365 → watch 3360, then 3355, 3350, 3346 2. BUY if price holds above 3386 → watch 3391, then 3396, 3400, 3403 👉 If you found this useful, please drop a like! Your support lets me know whether there’s demand for a post on how I enter and place stops — still planning to release it soon! Disclaimer: Personal view, not financial advice. Trade with discipline and manage your risk.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Ombabibi
GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 1H ANALYSIS BULLISH STRUCTURE HOLDING STRONG📈 GOLD SPOT (XAU/USD) 1H ANALYSIS – BULLISH STRUCTURE HOLDING STRONG! 🚀✨ 🔍 Overview: Gold is currently trading within a well-defined ascending channel 📊, showing clear bullish intent. Price action has respected the lower channel support, bouncing strongly from a key demand zone highlighted in blue. 🟦 Support Zone: The price is consolidating just above the $3,385–$3,390 support zone 🛡️, which has acted as a springboard multiple times in the past. This area aligns perfectly with the lower trendline, increasing its reliability. 📍 Key Price Targets: 🎯 $3,402 – First breakout confirmation and minor resistance. 🎯 $3,422 – Mid-level target, possible resistance. 🎯 $3,452 – High-probability target if bullish momentum continues. 🎯 $3,460+ – Extended target aligning with the channel top. 📈 Technical Structure: Price is respecting higher lows and higher highs, maintaining bullish momentum. A breakout above $3,402 could trigger the next leg up. Market is forming a bullish flag/pennant consolidation—potential breakout pending ⏳. ⚠️ Risk Zone: A break below the demand zone and the channel could invalidate the bullish setup ❌. Close monitoring of lower structure is essential. ✅ Conclusion: As long as price holds above the key support zone and within the ascending channel, bullish continuation remains the favored scenario. A breakout above interim resistance levels could send Gold toward $3,450+! 🌟📊 🔔 Watch for bullish confirmation candles or volume spikes before entry! 📅 Chart published: June 18, 2025 | XAU/USD | 1H timeframe 🧠 Strategy: Bullish breakout play 📈 💡 Sentiment: Moderately Bullish ♻️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by VikingFx-Community
GOLD 3HR OANDA Unemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Shavyfxhub
GOLD 1HRUnemployment Claims Data Context Forecast: 246,000 Previous: 248,000 The weekly initial jobless claims report is a key indicator for the Federal Reserve, signaling the current state and momentum of the U.S. labor market. Fed Interpretation: Greater Than Forecast Indication: A figure above 246,000 suggests the labor market is softening more than expected. Fed Response: The Fed would view higher-than-forecast claims as a sign of rising layoffs and potential weakening in employment growth. This outcome increases concern about the durability of the economic expansion and may raise the likelihood of future interest rate cuts, especially if the trend persists. The Fed would likely emphasize caution in its policy statement and may signal greater willingness to ease policy if labor market weakness continues. Fed Interpretation: Less Than Forecast Indication: A figure below 246,000 signals a stronger-than-expected labor market. Fed Response: The Fed would interpret lower-than-forecast claims as evidence that the labor market remains resilient, with fewer layoffs and ongoing job creation. This outcome reduces the urgency for immediate rate cuts and supports the case for holding rates steady, especially if inflation remains above target. The Fed is likely to maintain a cautious, data-dependent stance, awaiting further evidence before considering policy changes. Federal Funds Rate Decision Outlook Expected Outcome: The Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25%–4.50% during the June 18, 2025 meeting. Supporting Factors: Inflation is moderating but remains above target. Labor market data, including unemployment claims, shows stability without overheating. Economic uncertainties, including trade policies, encourage a cautious approach. Market Odds: There is a near 100% probability of no rate change today, with markets focusing on the Fed’s forward guidance and economic projections for clues on future rate moves. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current federal funds rate range of 4.25%–4.50%, reflecting a balanced approach amid moderating inflation and steady labor market conditions. Market participants will closely watch the FOMC statement, economic projections, and press conference for any shifts in tone that could influence future rate expectations and market volatility.
CITYINDEX:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
1
Gold fluctuates under pressure. Can it break out?Information summary: The conflict between Iran and Israel has entered the fifth day, Tel Aviv air raid alarms are frequent, and the fire of oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated the panic of energy transportation, and safe-haven buying supports gold prices; Trump's contradictory statement of "peace talks + toughness" has exacerbated the market's differences on the direction of the conflict, and risk aversion has fluctuated repeatedly. In the early Asian session, spot gold fluctuated narrowly at $3,375, continuing the stalemate under the geopolitical conflict and the game of the US dollar. As the "king of safe havens", gold has recently bottomed out and rebounded based on the tension in the Middle East, and the current price fluctuates around 3,395. Market analysis: The four-hour chart shows that the moving average is sticking to wait for a breakthrough in the direction, and the short-term moving average is sticking to $3,380. The RSI indicator fluctuates around 50, suggesting that a breakthrough will be ushered in after a narrow consolidation; the lower rail support of the rising channel moves up to $3,370, and if it fails, it may test $3,350. At present, the price is repeatedly testing the resistance position of 3400. If the price stands above this position, it may continue to rise to around 3430. If it breaks the support of 3370 US dollars, it will look to 3360 US dollars. Operation strategy: Short near 3400, stop loss 3410, profit range 3370-3365. If the price falls back to around 3370, you can try to go long, and the profit point is around 3390.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Quaid_1
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Wednesday, 18th June 2024)Asian + London Session Bias: No Bias USD News(Red Folder): -Unemployment Claims -Federal Funds Rate -FOMC Statement -FOMC Economic Projections Notes: - Uncertainty on geopolitical tension - No exact bias, waiting for FOMC statement for indication - Potential BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe - Pivot point: 3440,3350 Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
Is gold a short-term correction or a bull market turning point?Market news: The London gold price has experienced a significant correction after hitting an eight-week high. Spot gold fell more than 1% on Monday, wiping out all the gains of last Friday. However, the escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially the continued conflict between Israel and Iran, still provides support for international gold prices. The upcoming Federal Reserve policy meeting has become the focus of market attention.The continued tension in the Middle East is an important driving factor for the recent fluctuations in spot gold. The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated significantly since June 12. Israel's air strikes on the Iranian National Radio and Television Building and the Natanz uranium enrichment plant have caused serious damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. In addition to geopolitical factors, the policy trends of the Federal Reserve also have an important impact on international gold.For gold, the Federal Reserve's maintenance of high interest rates usually puts pressure on its price, because gold, as an interest-free asset, is less attractive in a high-interest rate environment. However, geopolitical risks and rising inflation expectations may offset some of the negative impacts, causing gold prices to remain volatile in the short term. Investors should pay close attention to the latest developments in the situation between Israel and Iran, the results of the G7 summit, and the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts, while being wary of the short-term impact of market sentiment and technical factors on gold prices. The monthly rate of US retail sales (commonly known as "horror data") will also be released on this trading day, and investors also need to pay close attention! Technical review: Technically, the daily price of gold is still running above the MA10/7-day moving average at 3364, the RSI indicator is above the value of the middle axis 50, and the price is running in the upper track of the Bollinger Band channel. The short-term four-hour chart MA10/7-day moving average high 3420 dead cross opens downward, the price pulls back to the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator retreats to the middle axis. The short-term formation is a bearish shock and fall, but the gold price is still in the buying structure channel on the daily and weekly charts. The main idea of ​​today's trading is to sell at a high price and buy at a low price! Gold began to pull back when the situation eased. The fermentation of this round of news was relatively restrained by large funds, and did not test the high point of 3500 upwards. Overall, the increase in gold prices was not large, and there was still a process of pulling. The fundamentals have not changed, and gold is still in a bull market. As we said before, if we keep above the key point of 3400, gold will continue to be bought. Now that it has fallen below 3400, the short-term has gone out of the small-level top, and the market is no longer so strong. For our short-term operations, the short-term correction of gold prices should focus on the daily cycle MA5 support and the weekly level MA5 support to buy! Today's analysis: Gold continues to weaken in the short term. After the rapid decline last night, the rebound strength is not strong at all. It is obvious that there is a large selling pressure above. For the market that broke the original upward trend, we also said last night that the decline is not very large. It just changed from buying to shock. Our intraday operations can be sold in the short term first!Although gold has fallen below 3400, the short-term direction has changed, but the general direction has not changed. It is still buying. In the future, we still have the opportunity to look at the high point of 3500, but we have to wait for the bottom to stabilize before we go to buy the bottom. I will say later that in the current market, we can only follow the trend. We will do whatever the market goes! Operation ideas: Buy short-term gold at 3383-3385, stop loss at 3372, target at 3420-3440; Sell short-term gold at 3420-3423, stop loss at 3432, target at 3390-3370; Key points: First support level: 3383, second support level: 3372, third support level: 3353 First resistance level: 3418, second resistance level: 3430, third resistance level: 3450
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NuggetsWarriors