GOLD SWING XAUUSD took support form bottom - up Line.
All long targets are achieved
This month taking rejection from major resistence,
Let's track the moves from Top down line.
Follow for more swing analysis for INDICES - CURRENCY - COMMODITIES
GOLDCFD trade ideas
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
The range continues! We've been playing this range now for nearly a trading week and although it's giving us the scalps, it's not making the move that we want at the moment. Day before yesterday, we said we would stick with the plan, and it's worked again, however, this time, if we approach that key level 3335, we're not going to suggest attempting that short again.
Having said the above, even though it's frustrating, we're going to stick with the plan at the moment. Most of our bearish targets are completing together with KOG's bias of the day, so lets see if we can break below that 3300 level and hold! As it stands, nothing to lose unless we get taken at BE again.
Circled are the key levels to look out for, bias still stands for now. NFP around the corner, it's going to make it even more of a whipsaw.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Macro Elliott Wave Analysis – Is Cycle Wave ⑤ Already Done?This analysis presents a long-term Elliott Wave interpretation of gold from the 1970s to the present, focusing on the macro cycle structure.
We are currently facing a major inflection point, where two valid scenarios emerge:
Scenario 1 – Cycle Wave ⑤ Completed:
A clear 5-wave impulse from the 2015 low is visible, with Wave (5) extending to the 2.618 extension of Wave (1). This aligns well with typical Fibonacci proportions.
If this is correct, a multi-year correction may now begin, marking the end of the long-term bullish cycle.
Scenario 2 – Still in a Running Flat:
Alternatively, the entire structure since 2011 may still be part of a Running Flat correction:
Wave A: 2011–2015
Wave B: 2015–2024 (currently near 2.0 × A, which is extreme but still technically possible)
Wave C: Yet to come (expected to be shallow and brief if this scenario holds)
Key Decision Point:
If Wave C drops below the low of Wave A, the Running Flat scenario fails — and we may be seeing the start of a larger degree correction.
On the other hand, if price continues higher and breaks the assumed Wave (5) top, it may indicate the impulsive move is still in progress and the current count must be re-evaluated.
Let me know your thoughts — which scenario do you favor?
Is this the end of a decades-long cycle? Or are we still preparing for the final rally?
#Gold #XAUUSD #ElliottWave #WaveAnalysis #TechnicalAnalysis
#MacroTrends #Commodities #Wave5 #RunningFlat #TradingView
#CycleAnalysis #PriceAction #MarketStructure #GoldForecast
GOLD WILL GO DOWN|SHORT|
✅GOLD is going down now
After a breakout a retest
A and a pullback from the
Key horizontal level
Of 3280$ so we are bearish
Biased and we will be expecting
A further bearish move down
SHORT🔥
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Bull market ends gold's declineHi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊
A few moments ago, the price traded inside a little flat, where it declined to the bottom part and then started to grow.
In a short time, it reached the $2955 level, broke it and started to trades inside a big flat, exiting from a small range.
After this movement, the price reached the top part of the flat and then corrected, after which it entered to pennant.
In the pennant pattern, Gold exited from a flat and rose to the resistance line from the support line, breaking the $3205 level.
Also recently, price made a correction, but then it turned around and bounced up, thereby exiting from pennant.
Now, I think that Gold can rise a little and then start to decline to $3205 support level.
If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
I know many people's accounts have been burned or are about to be burned due to the rapid decline and rise of gold. If you are a novice or you need some advice, you can contact me and I will give you free advice.
Gold is about to make an upward breakthrough!- Descending Triangle as an corrective pattern in Short Time Frame
- Break of Structure
- S / R Level
- Change of Characteristics
- Completed " 12345 " Impulsive Waves and " ABC " Corrective Waves
GOLD Gold’s Trade Relationship with the US Dollar and Bond Market (May 2025)
1. Inverse Correlation Between Gold and the US Dollar
Gold and the US Dollar Index (DXY) typically move in opposite directions. When the dollar weakens, gold prices tend to rise, and vice versa. This inverse relationship remains strong in 2025, with gold’s beta to the dollar shifting to around -0.7, amplifying the negative correlation.
The US dollar has weakened about 8–9% year-to-date in 2025, contributing to gold’s surge to record highs above $3,500 per ounce.
Dollar weakness is driven by factors such as slowing US growth forecasts, political uncertainty around Federal Reserve independence, and declining foreign demand for US Treasuries.
2. Gold’s Role as a Safe Haven Amid Bond Market Dynamics
In 2025, gold has increasingly become the preferred safe-haven asset, especially as US Treasuries and the dollar have faced sell-offs.
The bond market has experienced rising yields (e.g., 30-year Treasury yields hitting highs not seen since late 2023), which traditionally would pressure gold. However, geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and concerns about real yields have driven investors toward gold instead of bonds.
Gold’s correlation with real yields has shifted strongly negative (around -0.78), meaning that as real yields fall or remain negative, gold prices rise. Negative real interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, enhancing its appeal.
3. Impact of Monetary Policy and Inflation Expectations
The Federal Reserve’s high nominal rates combined with inflation running above target have created negative real interest rates (nominal rates minus inflation), which historically support gold’s price appreciation.
Expansionary monetary policies globally, including increased money supply growth (M2 up 8.3% YoY among G20 nations), provide liquidity that fuels gold demand.
Tariff-induced inflation and geopolitical risks further elevate gold’s status as a hedge against monetary and trade policy uncertainty.
4. Summary of the Relationship
US Dollar Weakness then Gold price rises (inverse correlation) and Dollar declines.
Rising Bond Yields is Usually bearish for gold, but offset by safe-haven demand in 2025 Yields rise, bonds sell off
Negative Real Yields is Strongly bullish for gold Real yields fall, reducing bond attractiveness
Geopolitical/Tariff Uncertainty Boosts gold as safe haven Increases volatility in dollar and bond markets
Monetary Expansion (Liquidity) Supports gold price Can pressure dollar value
Conclusion
In May 2025, gold’s price surge to record levels is primarily driven by a weaker US dollar and negative real bond yields, combined with geopolitical and trade uncertainties that have diminished the safe-haven appeal of US Treasuries. While rising nominal bond yields might typically weigh on gold, the prevailing negative real rates and investor preference for gold as a monetary hedge have reversed this trend. The strong inverse correlation between gold and the dollar remains a key dynamic shaping market behavior.
GOLD → Consolidation. Traders are waiting for news...FX:XAUUSD remains in consolidation at 3370-3270. Traders are in no hurry to take any action, as there is a lot of important news ahead. Let's take a closer look at the situation...
On Wednesday, gold is trading lower, remaining in a sideways range as traders await the release of US GDP data for the first quarter. A sharp slowdown in growth is expected, and a possible contraction in the economy could increase bets on a Fed rate cut and support gold. Meanwhile, the dollar is holding steady amid tariff news and expectations for key employment and inflation data.
A retest of the range support is forming. The approach is quite sharp, and the pre-breakout potential has been exhausted. A false breakout of support could trigger an upward correction.
Support levels: 3270, 3245
Resistance levels: 3314, 3329, 3352
If the dollar continues to fall after the news, this could support gold and the price could continue to trade between 3370 and 3270. Unpredictable news could trigger a breakout and a fall.
Best regards, R. Linda!
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great start to the week with our chart idea playing out perfectly inline with our plans to buy dips.
We got our bearish targets 3306 and then into the retracement range like we analysed and then the perfect bounce now heading towards our Bullish targets.
We will look for a test and break above 3344 for a continuation or failure to test and lock above this level will se price play back into the lower Goldturns for support.
We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up.
We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends.
The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges.
BULLISH TARGET
3344
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3344 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3367
POTENTIALLY 3390
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3390 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3458
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3458 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3478
POTENTIALLY
3503
BEARISH TARGETS
3306 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE RETRACEMENT RANGE
3285 - DONE
3259
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3259 WILL OPEN THE SWING RNGE
3233
3201
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3201 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE
SECONDARY SWING RANGE
3159 - 3112
As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX
Gold Trade Plan 01/05/2025Dear Traders,
The April monthly candle closed around 3285. Currently, the price has reacted to a previously identified zone and is now moving within a descending channel, with the channel's upper boundary at 3285. If the price gives a daily close above 3285, I expect it to rise toward 3370.
otherwise complex Correction will be continue and my Final Target is 3170
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
XAUUSD Update - 3rd week May 2025Still following into the major trend...Gold has a high probality to make a new ATH above 3500.
Good Luck !
Gold trend: Buy up and do more!As the US dollar is approaching the key middle track of the daily line, it is not far away. It is expected to end the rebound correction and continue to start a weak trend decline. Therefore, gold may also have a short-term bottom at any time; the gold weekly 5-day moving average support has been tested, and the daily middle track has also been pierced, which is considered to have completed the task indicators. The next step is to wait for a wave of pullback. At least the bottom low point of the previous convergence triangle of 3260-3270 will be tested and confirmed. It is a matter of time; and after the test is completed, if the pressure cannot stand, there may be a second bottom test, a secondary low point or a double bottom, and then finally start a unilateral rise; of course, if 3200 is not the low point of tonight, and the lower shadow of the daily closing is short, then it may be necessary to test the last 3175 position before determining the short-term bottom;
Gold awaits NFP after serious decline I expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: Gold is being kept below the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone of #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 despite the rejection on DX and continuous rise on equities, Gold didn’t manage to prepare the terrain for further the uptrend, according to my Technical estimations. Besides the High Selling Volume and evident Price-action showcasing of Bearish trend switch, #3,262.80 Support I mentioned which was about to be tested was invalidated and naturally Gold is on a decline (as I expected it throughout my recent remarks) and is Technicals what's keeping Gold Lower, relative to circumstances. Regardless of that, the Daily chart’s Support (Medium-term) is Trading just few points below, at #3,200.80, if broken it can open doors for #3,127.80 extension and Support mark test and is alone a positive development for Sellers ahead of the end of the Trading week."
Technical analysis: Daily chart remains isolated within solid Descending Channel and being Bearish indicates a Short-term Selling opportunity towards #3,200.80 psychological mark if Support gets invalidated and NFP delivers upside surprise (what I indeed expect). Keep an eye on the DX especially when the U.S. session opens (Bullish Gap fill) throughout today’s session in order to get more information and pointers of the Intra-day direction. Gold got rejected at #3,200.80 - #3,227.80 Medium-term Support zone (many rejections on current pressure point) and since the pullback wasn’t Bought back above the Hourly 1 chart’s Buying accumulation zone, current Price-action points that the Selling sentiment remains unchanged as this is just one of early Trading weeks in May. That keeps the Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel valid (already converted to a Bearish Flag / messenger of Selling continuation ahead), with #3,262.80 configuration currently representing it’s local Lower High’s Upper zone).
clear upside view after an sl yesterday on the intraday basis my idea should work mostly probably.
since I had taken a sl yesterday i have entered a reversal
The downside risk of gold increases!📌Fundamentals:
1. The conflict between India and Pakistan shows signs of escalation
2. US-Houthi ceasefire agreement
3. The Fed’s interest rate decision dominates this week’s market
4. International trade situation disturbs market sentiment
5. Market sentiment and capital flow
📊Technical aspects:
At present, on the hourly basis, gold is still under pressure at the small range resistance of 3400, and the current tariff crisis has cooled down. The data of the Fed's interest rate decision will cause a series of fluctuations in gold in the short term. At the same time, the market is betting that there will be further trend corrections, which may cause capital outflows in the market, which will further hit gold bulls!
There is actually a new round of operation opportunities in the short term. The short-term resistance should be around 3400, but since the game between major powers has not stopped, there will be no big negative factors. However, if the data layout does not fluctuate much, the market may not have a big dive. At present, we will temporarily play at the 3360-3400 level. If it breaks, we will make new adjustments!
🎯Practical strategy:
Gold: Short around 3390-3400 on the rebound, and the target is 3370-3360!
Bullish Gold: Ride the Wave with Pullback BuysOn the daily gold chart, there was a sharp upward surge on Monday, and the price rebounded above the $3300 mark. Normally, the upward movement on the daily chart could potentially drive the price towards the high point near the upper Bollinger Band at around $3500. This also means that the monthly chart recovers the upper shadow and forms a second upward thrust. So, there is ample upside potential. We should focus on the sustainability of this upward momentum.
On the 4 - hour chart, another wave of strength is needed. A significant rally is required to widen the upper Bollinger Band and establish an absolute one - sided bullish trend. Therefore, although the bullish outlook is clear for now, there is still a possibility of some adjustments. Currently, the support below is around the $3340 - $3350 range, with the dividing line being near the early - morning low of $3330. If there is an opportunity for the price to pull back to the support area, one can go long and bet on the upward trend. Today, keep an eye on the resistance levels at $3385 - $3395 - $3400.
XAUUSD
buy@3350-3355-3360
tp:3370-3380-3400
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
We wanted this to test that high and give us the short which worked well and gave us a good start to the week. While price came into the lower range level our indicators kept suggesting this was going up so we said we would protect and manage, and the those who wanted to trade the red boxes
Now we're at crucial resistance, and because the daily range is so large it's a zone of 3348-58. That turns support into the 3325-30 which will need to hold in order for price to go up! That double bottom was concerning as mentioned in the KOG Report, however, we did want lower to come back up here, unfortunately, that swing turned into scalping.
We'll stick with the chart as it is, break above and we'll look for higher, otherwise, this is the region to keep an eye on!
RED BOXES INDI LEVELS:
Break above 3320 for 3327✅ , 3330 ✅ , 3335✅ , 3345✅ , 3347✅ and above that 3362 in extension of the move
Break below 3310, for 3306✅ , 3297✅ , 3295✅ , 3280✅ , 3266 and 3255 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Gold Price Analysis May 7Yesterday's D1 candle continued to be a FULL candle with a 100 price increase. At the beginning of the day, the market opened with a bearish price gap, showing that the market also wants to cool down and today.
Gold is sideways in the range and is running a corrective downtrend.
The support zone for BUY strategies is around 3371, this is the EMA 34 of the h1 frame and is partially supported by the trendline. The next notable area is 3352, which is the old candle wick area and also the support area of yesterday's European session.
The two SELL areas are around 3402 and the Gap opening area is 3423.
Is Gold Ready to Break the High… Again?On the Daily timeframe , the seller’s level at 3366.900 , formed by the April 22nd bar, was broken by strong buying pressure and is currently being retested from above.
On the Hourly chart , I’m observing a bullish wide-spread bar with the highest volume, which also broke through the 3366.900 level.
📈This bar has its own test at 3349.745, which supports the bullish bias for now.
As long as this level holds, I expect the long scenario to remain valid.
Overhead, there is resistance from sellers at 3404.761 .
If price breaks above it, the next upside targets are:
🎯 3438.708
🎯 3500.120
#TechnicalAnalysis #DayTrading #VSA #XAUUSD #GOLD # #FuturesTrading #VolumeSpreadAnalysis
bullish reject support 4H?Gold is currently sitting right at a major 4H demand zone (2627–2611), which also aligns with the third touch of a descending channel support — a classic potential reversal signal. Bulls may look for confirmation here, but if this zone fails, we could head lower toward the next demand zone
XAU/USD: High Volatility is Expected! (READ THE CAPTION)By analyzing the gold chart on the 30-minute timeframe, we can see that, as expected, the price began rising from the $3310 zone yesterday and reached $3330, delivering a 200-pip gain.
After that, selling pressure took over, and gold is now trading around $3277. Given the current market structure and today's important news events, I expect high volatility in both bullish and bearish directions.
One of the key liquidity pools likely to be targeted today lies below $3259, and before any potential drop, we may see the liquidity gap between $3288 and $3303 being filled.
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban
Gold Price Analysis May 5The D candle cluster appears with the sellers still dominating. 3270 is still playing a key role in reversing the trend.
The h1 structure is creating a false break in the 70 zone and wants to continue falling in the corrective downtrend. Pay attention to the 3263 break zone in the European session, when breaking this zone, Gold will form an uptrend and the possibility of breaking the 3270 zone is very high. 3285 will be the next reaction zone when breaking 3270, then the Down wave of Gold will be broken. Gold can reach 3303 when there are retests to the support zones.
In the opposite direction, Gold does not break 3262 and continues to fall, it will be favorable for the downtrend and the possibility of forming a double top pattern and falling sharply is also quite high. The Trendline zone 3243 is considered an important support zone in the near future for the Gold price decline. Next, pay attention to the reaction zone of the daily support around 3225.
Analysis of Gold's Trend and Trading Suggestions for Next WeekAfter the release of the non-farm payrolls data, the market reacted quickly but showed a divergent trend, bringing a short-term boost to market confidence. However, the downward revision of historical data and external uncertainties still keep investors cautious. In the short term, risky assets may still have some room for growth, but in the medium to long term, downward risks are gradually accumulating.
From a technical perspective, in the 1-hour K-line chart of gold, the moving average system shows an obvious bearish arrangement with a death cross pointing downward, and each moving average continues to diverge downward, indicating that the short-term bearish force is dominant. Currently, the gold price is falling back under the pressure at the level of 3,270. Judging from the subsequent trend, around 3,270 will become a key turning point in the battle between bulls and bears for gold next week.
Although there has been a rebound in the price of gold, the rebound range is relatively limited compared to the previous decline, which further shows that the bullish force has not fully taken the upper hand. If the gold price continues to be under pressure at the level of 3,270 and fails to break through effectively next week, the market is likely to continue in a range-bound pattern. In the short term, it will be difficult for the bulls in the gold market to achieve a trend reversal. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakthrough situation of this key price level and the changes in trading volume to grasp the subsequent market trend.
XAUUSD
sell@3255-3265
tp:3240-3220
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
