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GOLDCFD trade ideas

Gold has an adjustment trend, shorting is the main trendGold has begun to fluctuate in a wide range. The gold high has been suppressed frequently in the past two days and will fall back. Don't chase too much after the gold high. Even if you are long, you must patiently wait for the opportunity to fall back and adjust. The gold 1-hour moving average has begun to show signs of turning, so the volume of gold bulls has begun to weaken, and gold bulls may have adjustments. In the short term, the confidence in further rising gold is not very strong. The structure of the double top of gold 1 hour. Trading ideas: short gold near 3221, stop loss 3231, target 3200
TVC:GOLDShort
by Fortune-signal
Gold is finishing at a high level to resist the fall! The bullis 📌 Driving events U.S. President Trump said on Monday that he was exploring the possibility of temporarily exempting tariffs on imported cars and parts to give auto companies more time to establish production bases in the United States. New York Fed: The unemployment rate is expected to rise to the highest level since April 2020 in March. In March, households were more pessimistic about employment and future income. The expected inflation rate for the next five years is 2.9%, down from 3% in February. Geopolitical situation: It was learned on the 14th local time that Israeli officials said that Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) still have great differences on the ceasefire in Gaza. The official said that compared with the previous negotiating position, Hamas seems willing to release more Israeli detainees, but if Hamas insists on requiring all parties to guarantee that Israel must stop waging war in the Gaza Strip after the ceasefire, it will still be difficult to promote an agreement. The official expects Hamas to respond to the new ceasefire proposal in the next few days. 📊Comment Analysis The hourly level shows that the short-term gold price has fallen from a high level and gradually fell into a narrow range above the hourly 60-day moving average support level. The current hourly level indicators are narrowing, maintaining a short-term shock guide reference. The 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average at the four-hour level are arranged in a downward cross, maintaining the four-hour level peak signal. The short-term decline gradually brings about the four-hour RSI mean reversion, forming a four-hour level adjustment trend. The gold price has risen and fallen to maintain a shock downward trend, which has not changed the medium- and long-term upward trend. Be cautious to maintain a bullish shock trading strategy during the day. 💰Strategy package Long order: Aggressive participation at 3185-3195, profit target above 3210 Steady participation at 3175-3185, profit target above 3195 Short order: Aggressive participation at 3250, profit target below 3230 ⭐️Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their capital - Choose the number of lots that matches your capital - Profit equals 4-7% of the capital account - Stop loss equals 1-3% of the capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Labaron
1
Trading Smarter, Not Harder: Decoding Institutional MovesThere’s an old saying in trading: “Follow the smart money.” But how do you know where the smart money is going? The answer lies not in guesswork but in data—specifically, the kind of institutional-grade data that most retail traders overlook. If you’re serious about understanding market dynamics, it’s time to dive into the world of **COT (Commitment of Traders) reports** and **options flow data** from the **CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange)**. These tools are like your personal radar, cutting through the noise to reveal what the big players are doing. Step 1: Understanding the Big Picture – Why Market Sentiment Matters Before we zoom into the specifics, let’s start with the basics. Markets are driven by sentiment—the collective mood of participants. When fear dominates, prices fall; when greed takes over, they rise. But here’s the catch: Retail traders often react to sentiment after it’s already priced in. By the time you see a headline screaming “Market Crashes!” or “Record Highs!”, the opportunity has likely passed. This is where systematic analysis comes in. Instead of relying on emotions or lagging indicators, smart traders use raw data to anticipate shifts in sentiment. And two of the most powerful sources of this data are **COT reports** and **CME options flow**. Step 2: The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report – Peering Into the Mind of Institutions The **COT report**, published weekly by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), provides a breakdown of positions held by different types of traders: commercial hedgers, non-commercial speculators (like hedge funds), and small retail traders. Here’s why it’s invaluable: - **Commercial Hedgers**: These are the “smart money” players—producers and consumers who use futures markets to hedge their risk. For example, a sugar producer might sell futures contracts to lock in prices. Their actions often signal future supply and demand trends. - **Non-Commercial Speculators**: These are the momentum-driven players who bet on price movements. Tracking their positioning helps identify potential reversals. - **Small Traders**: Often considered the “dumb money,” their positions frequently coincide with market tops or bottoms. By systematically analyzing the COT report, you will discover your ability to identify patterns and positioning levels of participants that signal trend reversals or the onset of corrections. Seriously, this will blow your mind! The insights you gain will be so groundbreaking that they will change your trading game forever. Step 3: Options Flow – Real-Time Insights Into Institutional Activity While the COT report offers a macro view, **options flow** gives you real-time insights into institutional activity. Directly through CME data feeds, you can track large block trades in options markets. Here’s why this matters: It will take some time, observation, and comparison with price charts to learn how to uncover insights that lead to trades with a risk-reward ratio of 1:10 or even higher. This isn’t about needing to make options trades; that’s not a requirement. It’s about being able to trade the Forex market much more effectively by using entry points highlighted by options and futures market reports. For example, over the past few weeks, the USD/JPY pair has been in a downtrend. Long before this happened, major players were accumulating positions in call options on the futures for the yen (which is equivalent to a decline in the yen). We discussed this before the drop occurred (you can easily find those analyses on our page ). What’s remarkable is that there are many such insights available. For certain instruments (like precious metals and currency pairs), these insights appear with a certain regularity and provide excellent sentiment for opening positions or reversing positions in the opposite direction. Step 4: Connecting the Dots – From General Trends to Specific Trades Now that we’ve covered the tools, let’s talk about how to apply them systematically. Imagine you’re analyzing the sugar futures market (a favorite among commodity traders): 1. **Check the COT Report**: In the precious metals market, commercials are often positioned short, hedging against the risk of a decline in the underlying asset's value. When their net position hovers around zero , it typically signals a bullish trend for gold prices in the vast majority of cases. 2. **Analyze Options Flow**: when filtering options by sentiment, there are several key factors to consider: - Size and value of the option portfolio - Distance from the central strike (Delta) - Time to expiration - Appearance on the rise/fall of the underlying asset Option portfolios with names such as vertical spread, butterfly, and condor (iVERTICAL SPREAD, IRON FLY/FLY, CONDOR/IRON CONDOR) have predictive sentiment regarding the direction of the asset's price movement. While "naked" options (PUT or CALL options) with above-average volume can signal that the price is encountering a significant obstacle at that level, leading to a potential bounce off that level (support or resistance). 3 **Combine with Retail Positions Analysis**: Look for opportunities to trade against the crowd. If retail sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, consider a bearish position, and vice versa. This layered approach ensures you’re not just reacting to headlines but making informed decisions based on valuable data. Step 5: Why Systematic Analysis Sets You Apart Here’s the truth: Most traders fail because they rely on intuition rather than evidence. They chase tips, follow social media hype, or get swayed by emotional biases. But markets reward discipline and preparation. By mastering tools like COT reports and options flow, you gain a competitive edge—a deeper understanding market breath! The path of least resistance! Remember, even seasoned professionals don’t predict every move correctly.However, having a reliable structure allows you to maximize profits from transactions, eliminate noise and unnecessary (questionable) transactions. Final Thoughts: Your Path to Mastery If there’s one takeaway from this article, let it be this: The best traders aren’t fortune-tellers; they’re detectives. They piece together clues from multiple sources to form a coherent picture of the market. Start with the big picture (COT reports), zoom into real-time activity (options flow), and then refine your strategy with technical analysis. So next time you open chart, don’t just look at price. Dive into the reports/data before. Ask questions. Connect the dots. Because in the world of trading, knowledge truly is power. What’s your experience with COT reports or options flow? Share your thoughts in the comments below—I’d love to hear how you incorporate these tools into your trading routine! **P.S.** If you found this article helpful, consider bookmarking it for future reference.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ClashChartsTeam
Understanding Our Approach: High-Probability Reversals Understanding Our Approach: High-Probability Reversals with Price & Time Analysis Hello Fellow Traders! We often get asked about the core principles behind our analysis here on TradingView. Today, we want to share a key part of our methodology: how we combine Price Analysis and Time Analysis to pinpoint potentially high-probability reversal signals in the market. Our goal isn't just about finding any setup, but finding setups where the odds seem stacked more favorably for a potential trend change. We do this by looking for confluence – where different factors align. 1. Price Analysis: Finding Where the Market Might Turn What it is: This is about identifying significant price levels on the chart. Think of these as important zones, not just single lines. How we use it: Support & Resistance: We look for historical areas where price has repeatedly bounced off (support) or struggled to break through (resistance). The stronger and more tested the level, the more significant it becomes. Price Action Clues: We watch how price behaves when it reaches these key levels. Are there strong rejection candles (like pin bars or engulfing patterns)? Is momentum slowing down? These clues tell us if buyers or sellers are stepping in or losing control. 2. Time Analysis: Finding When the Market Might Turn What it is: This adds the dimension of time to our price analysis. Markets often move in cycles or react around specific time points. How we use it: Timing Cycles: We look for potential cycles or rhythmic patterns in price swings. Sometimes, trends tend to exhaust themselves after a certain duration. Time Convergence: We pay close attention when price approaches a key Price Level (from step 1) around a potentially significant Time point (e.g., end of a known cycle, specific session timing, alignment with time-based indicators if used). The Synergy: Combining Price & Time for High-Probability Signals The real power in our approach comes when Price and Time align. Imagine price reaching a major historical resistance level (Price Analysis). Now, imagine this happens exactly when a known time cycle is expected to complete (Time Analysis). This convergence signals a potentially higher probability reversal point than if only one factor was present. It tells us that where the market is and when it got there are both significant. How You Can Apply This Concept: Identify Key Levels: Mark major support and resistance zones on your charts. Observe Time: Become aware of market timing – session opens/closes, news events, or potential cyclical patterns you observe. Look for Confluence: Wait for price to test a strong level around a potentially significant time point. Seek Confirmation: Always look for confirmation signals (like candlestick patterns or divergence) at these points of confluence before considering any action. Important Note: Trading involves significant risk. This methodology aims to identify higher probability setups, but no method guarantees success. Always use proper risk management and conduct your own analysis before making any trading decisions. This is shared for educational purposes. We hope this gives you a clearer insight into our analysis process! Follow us here on TradingView to see how we apply these concepts in our regular updates. Feel free to ask questions in the comments – we're all here to learn together. Want to Level Up? Join Shunya Trade’s Mentoring Program to master these strategies and sharpen your technical analysis skills. Trade safely! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Here few Historical chart study's ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PriceAnalysis, TimeAnalysis, PriceAction, TechnicalAnalysis, SupportResistance, CandlestickPatterns, ChartPatterns, MarketStructure, TimeCycles, MarketTiming, TradingSignals, ReversalTrading, TradingStrategy, MarketAnalysis, TradingView, Forex, Stocks, Crypto, Trading, Investing, DayTrading, SwingTrading, MarketCycles, FibonacciTime, Gann, TradingLevels, PricePatterns
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by shoonya0000
GOLD Is Bearish! Short! Take a look at our analysis for GOLD. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 3,290.99. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 3,179.46 level soon. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TRADENATION:XAUUSDShort
by SignalProvider
1
gold oscillating trendDuring the decline on Monday, the H4 cycle did not break the Bollinger middle rail support point. We will wait for the mid-term adjustment of gold to be completed. There will be another wave of rise with the changes in the H4 mid-term. The upper side will first look at the high points of 3235-3245. Yesterday, it started to rise at 3193-3195. If it continues to rise, it will look at 3235-3245. Don't look too much at the rising space in the future. After completing this wave of rise, there may be adjustments for the small cycle. Today's long position is likely to be around 3200-3205. If it falls back to this point, you can continue to go long. The European and American sessions will see 3235-3245 in turn. Gold operation strategy: short near 3235 above, stop loss 3245, target near 3200; long at 3200-3203 below, stop loss 3193, target 3220-3230;
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by MarjorieMatthew
XAUUSD: 15/4 Today’s Market Analysis and StrategyGold technical analysis Daily chart resistance 3300, support below 3176 Four-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3190-3150 One-hour chart resistance 3250, support below 3210 Gold news analysis: Gold prices remained above 3200 on Monday, indicating that the overall market sentiment is still cautiously optimistic. The main factors driving this round of market conditions include uncertainty in the global trade environment, a weaker dollar, and continued warming of safe-haven demand. During the session, investors' reactions to the latest tariff remarks intensified gold price fluctuations, but fundamental and technical support remained solid, and the strong pattern of gold did not show any significant shakes. The trend of the US dollar played an important role in this round of gold price fluctuations. The US dollar index hit a three-year low, making gold denominated in US dollars more attractive to overseas buyers. Behind the weakness of the US dollar, there are both market concerns about the outlook for the US economy and the drive of diversified reserve needs of global central banks. Analysts from well-known institutions said that the weakening of the US dollar and global economic uncertainty constituted a solid support for gold prices. In addition, the global central bank's demand for gold purchases remains strong. Since the beginning of this year, many central banks have continued to increase their gold reserves to cope with potential currency fluctuations and geopolitical risks. Gold operation suggestions: Gold opened lower yesterday and touched 3209 and then began to rise. It reached the historical high of 3245 again and then began to adjust and adjust. It retreated slightly in the European session and continued to accelerate in the US session. It bottomed out and began to rise after reaching 3193. From the current trend analysis, today's upper short-term resistance focuses on the 3250 mark, and the lower support focuses on the one-hour level 3210 and the four-hour level 3190 support. In terms of operation, continue to buy in line with the trend when stepping back to this position. At the same time, gold is currently in a severely overbought state and beware of a sharp correction. Buy: 3210near SL: 3205 Buy: 3190near SL: 3185
TVC:GOLDLong
by ActuaryJ
GOLD I H1 CLS Within Monday CLS, KL - FVG , Model 1 , Target OBHey, Market Warriors, here is another outlook on this instrument If you’ve been following me, you already know every setup you see is built around a CLS range, a Key Level, Liquidity and a specific execution model. If you haven't followed me yet, start now. My trading system is completely mechanical — designed to remove emotions, opinions, and impulsive decisions. No messy diagonal lines. No random drawings. Just clarity, structure, and execution. 🧩 What is CLS? CLS is real smart money — the combined power of major investment banks and central banks moving over 6.5 trillion dollars a day. Understanding their operations is key to markets. ✅ Understanding the behaviour of CLS allows you to position yourself with the giants during the market manipulations — leading to buying lows and selling highs - cleaner entries, clearer exits, and consistent profits. 🛡️ Models 1 and 2: From my posts, you can learn two core execution models. They are the backbone of how I trade and how my students are trained. 📍 Model 1 is right after the manipulation of the CLS candle when CIOD occurs, and we are targeting 50% of the CLS range. H4 CLS ranges supported by HTF go straight to the opposing range. 📍 Model 2 occurs in the specific market sequence when CLS smart money needs to re-accumulate more positions, and we are looking to find a key level around 61.8 fib retracement and target the opposing side of the range. 👍 Hit like if you find this analysis helpful, and don't hesitate to comment with your opinions, charts or any questions. ⚔️ Listen Carefully: Analysis is not trading. Right now, this platform is full of gurus" trying to sell you dreams based on analysis with arrows while they don't even have the skill to trade themselves. If you’re ever thinking about buying a Trading Course or Signals from anyone. Always demand a verified track record. It takes less than five minutes to connect 3rd third-party verification tool and link to the widget to his signature. "Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own." — David Perk aka Dave FX Hunter ⚔️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by David_Perk
11
Gold vs Bitcoin — Is a Historic Shift Coming ?Hello Traders 🐺 In this idea, I want to take a closer look at the GOLD price — because lately, many people have been asking: "Where is the top?" "Are we still bullish on gold?" And more importantly: "What’s your take on this as both a crypto trader and macro analyst?" So let’s dive in and break it down from both the fundamental and technical perspectives. 🟡 Gold and Its Correlation with Other Assets As you probably know, gold is a safe haven for long-term investors, central banks, and governments. So when inflation rises or when we see money-printing policies to avoid a recession, gold tends to shine — because it’s a classic anti-inflation asset. But here’s the catch: Gold isn’t the only game in town. Other inflation-hedging assets like Bitcoin, stocks, silver, and real estate also compete for capital — so it’s natural to see money rotate between them. 🇺🇸 Trump’s Policy Twist — Gold vs Bitcoin? A few weeks ago, Donald J. Trump hinted that the U.S. might sell part of its gold reserves to buy BTC. Crazy, right? But here’s where the story gets really interesting... If this happens, we could start seeing an inverse relationship between gold and BTC — kind of like the early days of oil vs. gold correlations. Let me break it down. 🤖 BTC vs. Gold — Simple Math, Big Picture Gold’s current market cap is about $22 Trillion — which is almost 20 times larger than BTC’s. Let’s ask a simple question: Do we need another GETTEX:22T to pump gold 100%? 👉 No. Why? Because most gold is held by: Central banks Governments Jewelry industry Only a small percentage is available for trading. So even a tiny reduction in selling pressure = huge impact on price. But here’s the flip side: BTC’s market cap is just $1.7T, and a huge portion is held by: Institutions like BlackRock Whales like Michael Saylor Lost wallets from early adoption So it’s simple: 👉 BTC has way more room to grow, and is easier to store, transfer, and scale. If we enter a new QE cycle, the upside potential for BTC will be far greater than gold — and smart money knows this. 🧠 Technical Analysis (TA) Time On the chart, gold has broken above a rising wedge — which is typically a bearish pattern. So... is this a trap? In my opinion: No. Why? Because if the wedge breakdown were to play out fully, the target would be around $280, which is just laughable 😂 — a 90% crash? Highly unlikely. Instead, here’s the bullish scenario: If gold can hold above the monthly support, we may see a slow, steady rally — not parabolic like crypto, but meaningful. 🎯 Bullish target: $7,760 📉 DXY, Fed Policies & Gold’s Future As I said in my last idea about the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the dollar is showing weakness, and the Fed might cut rates to avoid a recession. Check the chart I posted here: 👉 DXY Chart Idea : What do we see? A clear double top pattern Breakdown from key support Probable shift to QE mode All of this could ignite a new bull cycle — and yes, gold may benefit... …but don’t forget what I said about Trump. If the U.S. starts selling gold to buy BTC, we might see a short-term correction in gold back to the green support box before the real breakout. So make sure to stay sharp — and as always: 🐺 Discipline is rarely enjoyable, but almost always profitable. 🐺 🐺 KIU_COIN 🐺
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kiu_Coin
Gold prices will continue to rise on MondayGold prices will continue to rise on Monday If you really don't understand the trend of gold prices, just look at the analysis chart I drew. You must understand: energy is conserved. In the gold trading market, money = energy. After all, how much money comes in, how much money will flow out in the future. So, the underlying logic of the channel theory is formed. Channel theory is always the truth Through this theory, we can think more flexibly Draw the center line Then use the mirror principle to reflect the falling part It becomes the current shape characteristics as shown in the figure A very standard upward trend, the shape of the head and shoulders bottom upward adjustment Bottom support: 3290 Upper pressure: 3360 Gold trading strategy is very simple: Continue to do more at low prices Stop loss: 3290 Target: 3360--3400
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Emily_Blunt
#XAUUSD UP TREND Thanks for sharing the updated chart. Here’s a breakdown of what’s going on now: ### **Current Context (Gold Spot/USD - 1H)**: - **Price**: $3,327.38 (down 0.47%). - **Trend Channel**: Still in play, though the price briefly broke below the lower boundary and quickly re-entered — a potential **fakeout**. - **Corrective Structure**: The “(W)-(X)” label suggests an **Elliott Wave corrective pattern** (likely a W-X-Y correction). The price may still be in the “X” leg moving upward before completing “Y.” - **Key Levels**: - **Support**: Around $3,302 (same as the previous chart’s stop-loss). - **Resistance/Target**: $3,380 — matching the top of the previous breakout attempt. ### **Trade Setup**: - A long position is being considered with a bounce off the lower trendline. - Entry around $3,327–$3,331 with target near $3,380. - Stop-loss again around $3,303 — maintaining tight risk management. ### **Interpretation**: - The market may have completed a short-term correction and is possibly forming a higher low (if “W” holds). - A break above point “X” would confirm bullish continuation to $3,380 or higher. - If price breaks below “W” ($3,302), the bullish structure might fail, and deeper retracement becomes likely. Do you want to explore a possible short scenario if the lower boundary breaks again, or are you planning to ride the bullish continuation? NASDAQ:NVDA OANDA:XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex_Navigator