XAUUSD 1:5 R Trade Idea - ICTXAUUSD 1:5 R trade idea, higher time frames are bullish, should see this as a bottom for expansion upwards.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold plunge warning! Shorts point to 3200!
Fundamentals
Although the market risk aversion has cooled down recently, the cumulative increase in gold this year is still more than 25%, mainly benefiting from the continued increase in gold holdings by global central banks and ETF fund inflows. The market is currently paying attention to the trend of US trade policy on July 9. If the negotiations break down or new tariffs are implemented, it may quickly stimulate safe-haven demand and drive gold prices to rebound. However, in the short term, due to the temporary strengthening of the US dollar and the profit-taking of some longs, gold prices are still facing correction pressure.
Technical analysis
Trend structure:
Key resistance level: The 3450-3500 area is still an important pressure area for gold. Previously, gold prices encountered resistance in this area and fell back, indicating that the selling pressure in this area is strong.
Short-term support level: At present, the 3300 mark has become the focus of competition between long and short sides. If it falls below, it may further bottom out in the 3250-3220 area.
Short-term momentum: The 4-hour moving average is under pressure in the short term, and the MACD indicator is weak, indicating that there is still room for correction in the short term.
Key points:
Upper resistance: 3320-3330 (short-term short-term defense), 3350-3360 (strong resistance)
Lower support: 3300 (psychological barrier), 3290-3280 (short-term long-term defense), 3250 (medium-term key support)
Trading strategy
1. Short-term short-term operation (main line idea)
Entry point: rebound to 3310-3320 area, you can try to short
Stop loss: above 3325
Target: 3300 (first target), look at 3280-3250 after breakthrough
2. Low-level defense long (cautious participation)
Entry point: first touch 3290-3280, you can try to go long with a light position
Stop loss: below 3275
Target: 3310-3320 (if the rebound is weak, leave in time)
Summary and outlook
Short-term trend: technical side is still bearish. If 3300 is lost, it may accelerate downward to 3280-3250.
Potential change signal: If the gold price stabilizes at 3320, it may retest 3350, but it needs fundamental support (such as rising risk aversion).
Operation suggestion: Pay attention to the rebound high. You can try to go long with a light position at the key support level, but you need to strictly stop loss.
(Personal opinion: Gold prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term, and the 3300 mark may be difficult to hold. The short target looks below 3280.)
#XAUUSD: +2000 Swing Sell In Making! Get ReadyGold has dropped to the 3330 region but has now reversed and is currently trading at 3350. The next potential move could be at 3380, followed by 3400. Our sell entry is at 3400, where we believe the price will reverse. Our long-term view is that gold will head towards 3100, but our first target will be 3200. Please use accurate risk management when trading gold, as it can cause serious financial issues if not planned properly. This analysis does not guarantee any price movement.
Good luck and trade safely!
Team Setupsfx!
Excellent NFP sessionAs discussed throughout yesterday's session commentary: "My position: Gold is Trading within #3,350's belt which represents crossroads for the Short-term. Either #3,362.80 - #3,368.80 break-out to the upside towards #3,377.80 strong Resistance, or #3,342.80 - #3,352.80 break-out to the downside towards #3,327.80 Support. Current Price-action is ideal for Scalping since I don't expect major movement until tomorrow's NFP numbers."
Firstly I have re-Sold Gold almost all Wednesday's Asian session from #3,360's (Wednesday - Thursday) closing my orders on #3,352.80 then re-Bought Gold with set of aggressive Scalping orders from #3,345.80 towards #3,352.80. As NFP numbers were delivered, I have waited for decline to find a Support and Bought Gold aggressively from #3,312.80 and closed on #3,320.80. Later on, #3,332.80 Sold again (#4 aggressive Scalps) and closed on #3,327.80 and with mentioned order finalized excellent NFP session.
Technical analysis: The Short-term Price-action is Trading within #3,327.80 - #3,352.80 belt as I can easily spot idle movements on Hourly 4 chart with #3,327.80 Support bounces but regardless, Gold is Trading within my predicted values. Spot though on the Hourly 4 chart how Technicals are showcasing different / mixed values, and Gold is isolated within Neutral Rectangle with detectable Higher Low’s Upper and Lower zone. This is what I described on my commentary as an Bearish Divergence (BD) and is usually a first alert that the trend might be pointing to even stronger takedown. See how the very same divergence has Traded since November - April. On the November #12 Low, the Price-action started rising on an Ascending Channel but only once the structure formed a new Low. Then again after mentioned Low’s, Gold started rising until the next Bullish Divergence (which means, after local Low's tested, Gold engaged parabolic uptrend). I am monitoring closely #MA50 on Daily chart which is pointer for new #1 - #3 Month cycle.
My position: I will take no new orders as I am Highly satisfied with my returns / also it is holiday in U.S. as I do not expect major moves throughout the session (only ranging candles with Low Volume). Enjoy the Profits and have a great weekend!
Gold elliot wave. a new one at the making.Could this be the case for the next weeK? if this is the case then its bullish and will break above 400.
XAU USD a little & nice BUY set up 09-07-2025All analysis is based on technical analysis only...
Short & clear without any "BS"...
I do not believe in fundamental analysis (& if you are desperate for it, then... gold is never going to get cheaper in a very long term & it is a good investment for the next 50-100+ years, if you are happy with "preserving" your wealth, but if you are looking get paid this or next week, then...trading is a way. )
Entry is your very own choice ( easy to make decision on provided chart ( KISS- keep It Stupid Simple) )
TP around - 3367.188
SL - is totally depend on your very own financial & trading plan...
PS: it is not a financial advice & published for entirely "self educational" purpose"...
The short position is losing money. What should we do?Gold hit the intraday low of around 3296 and then began to rebound. We can see that the rebound of gold is not strong, but it is relatively sustained, so gold has rebounded to around 3335. To be honest, I did short gold according to my plan and still hold a short position.
Although gold has rebounded to around 3330, I don’t think my short gold trade has failed. As I said in the previous point of view, gold is facing technical suppression of the head and shoulders in the short term, which will suppress the rebound limit within the 3335-3340 area. So before gold stabilizes at 3340, I think the gold shorts still have the upper hand. So as long as gold stays below 3340, I think the gold rebound is a good opportunity to short gold.
At present, gold is facing the resistance area of 3335-3340 and begins to show signs of stagflation. After consuming a certain amount of bullish momentum, the gold shorts may counterattack strongly again and stimulate gold to fall rapidly. Therefore, before gold breaks upward through the 3335-3345 area, we can still consider shorting gold, or continue to hold a short position in gold!
xauusdGold enters support by reaching daily trend line
If gold continues to hold support
Gold is expected to reach its previous high again
gold long viewbuy gold now regret later.. here my view bullish flag for gold.. Now market react on fresh zone 4h. Careful if breakout below.
Gold Sideway DownGold Sideway down in TF M15 Because it did not break above the previous high price.
The price is climbing toward the top of the channel.OANDA:XAUUSD
We are currently in a wide descending channel on the 1-hour timeframe, and a potential move upward toward the top of the channel is expected.
Note: Our previous analysis on gold (XAUUSD) remains valid and intact.
XAUUSD: Market analysis and strategy for July 9Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance level 3340, support level below 3245
Four-hour chart resistance level 3308, support level below 3264
One-hour chart resistance level 3296, support level below 3275.
The expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July has been widely accepted by the market, mainly because Trump announced that he would increase import tariffs on goods from many countries from August 1, triggering market concerns about rising inflation. This expectation pushed up the US 10-year Treasury yield, supporting the dollar to a two-week high, which put gold under downward pressure. On Tuesday, gold closed sharply lower at the daily level, with ma5 and ma10 running downward, indicating that the bears once again dominated. Today, the price of gold may continue to fall. Pay attention to the support near the lower track 3275. If the price of gold closes the real falling candle again today, it will drive the Bollinger Band opening downward, which will further confirm the downward trend. The market may start a new round of decline in the future. The 4-hour level K line continues to fall, and the Bollinger Band opening expands downward! The short-term key support position below is around 3275. After breaking through, it may fall to the previous low of 3266-3245; the important pressure position is around 3308!
SELL: 3296near
SELL: 3308near
BUY: 3250near
Gold is still in rangeGold, the general trend is as described in the continuous analysis. The price has fallen from the historical high of 3500 to 3120 in the first round this year. After rising to 3452, it is currently in the second round of downward cycle. The mid-term top idea is maintained, and the operating target is 3120;
The non-agricultural data at the end of last week was under pressure at 3365, and it dropped to 3296 on Monday and rebounded. It broke the high overnight, and the daily chart closed positive. The K-line combination is in a volatile arrangement. In the short term, it will maintain consolidation below 3365; short-term support is 3330-3326, and strong support is 3320-3316; short-term resistance is 3350-3358, and strong resistance is 3365;
Monday Outlook on Gold (XAU/USD)In my opinion, we can expect a drop at the beginning of the week, with price potentially falling to the 3310–3300 zone. This area may act as a demand zone or liquidity pool, from where I expect a bullish reaction. After reaching that level, I anticipate the price to climb back up toward the trendline.
I’ll be watching for confirmations around 3300 for possible long entries.
Let’s see how the market opens on Monday.
XAUUSD Trade Setup – 1H ChartGold is currently at a key decision point, testing a supply zone and descending trendline resistance within a falling channel. Two scenarios are in play:
(Bearish)
Price gets rejected from the current supply zone (3,325–3,330) and resumes the downtrend, targeting 3,275 and possibly lower.
This aligns with the trendline resistance and previous swing rejection.
(Bullish Breakout)
If price breaks and holds above the descending trendline and clears the 3,331 zone, we may see a rally toward the 3,360–3,365 supply zone and beyond.
A breakout retest would confirm continuation.
This is a flexible setup with both long and short potential depending on the reaction at the current zone.
Your comments and opinions are welcome
#XAUUSD #Gold #PriceAction #TradeSetup #ForexIdeas #TechnicalAnalysis
Gold 2hours bearish analysisThe image shows a computer screen displaying a trading platform with a chart for Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAUUSD) on a 2-hour time frame from OANDA. The chart features a candlestick pattern with red and blue bars, indicating price movements over time
Gold (XAUUSD) Trade Setup – Valid Until July 10, 2025This 15-minute chart shows a clean technical breakout from a falling channel. Here's how to interpret and potentially trade this move:
🧠 Context: What Just Happened
Price was locked inside a descending channel (blue) for multiple sessions.
A breakout occurred above the channel, indicating a potential short-term bullish reversal.
The bounce aligns with recent tariff-related headlines easing off and short-covering momentum building.
I trade these support and resistance lines daily on micro gold futures.
What these lines represent:
Golden Line: Heavy Support or Resistance depending on the price direction towards the lines for major reversal or $10-$15 swings.
Silver Lines: Consolidation areas or mid way support and resistance for a scalping few touches.
Bronze dotted lines: Low volume days support and resistance for a quick $5 up or down.
Also, I can see a directional setup. Here is a hypothetical scenario that could play out:
📌 Key Zones to Watch
🔼 Resistance $3,342 Next major target / sell zone
🟧 Resistance $3,319 Current breakout level retest
⚪ Support $3,307–$3,316 Minor consolidation area
🔻 Support $3,295–$3,289 Strong demand / invalidation
🚨 Bear Pivot $3,272 Break below = bearish return
🧭 Trading Playbook
Bullish Bias (Preferred Scenario)
✅ Break and hold above $3,319 = potential move to $3,342
🎯 Target: $3,340–$3,342
🔒 SL below: $3,307
Optional re-entry on retest of $3,316 zone
Bearish Reversal (If Bulls Fail)
⚠️ If price fails $3,319 and breaks back below $3,307, sellers may reclaim control
📉 Look for short setups toward $3,295 and even $3,272
SL above: $3,319
📌 Key Tip
Watch for volume confirmation and 5m candle closes at each level. Don’t chase — let price come to your levels.
⏳ Validity
This setup remains valid through July 10, or until $3,342 target is hit or $3,272 is broken.
This is not financial advice; it's for educational purposes only.
Buy Gold! The short-term bottom may have appeared!Gold continued to retreat yesterday and hit a recent low, reaching around 3287. Then gold gradually rebounded to above 3300. Relatively speaking, the rebound momentum was weak. It is expected that the long and short sides will fight fiercely around 3300. However, from the recent characteristics of gold operation, it can be seen that although the short position of gold is strong, it is difficult to continue in the short term, and I think the short-term decline of gold is basically in place, so at this stage, in terms of short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly;
As gold did not continue to fall after reaching around 3287, on the contrary, it gradually rebounded to above 3300, which may strengthen the market's consensus on the short-term bottom, thereby attracting the favor of off-site funds; from the current gold structure, if gold can maintain above 3300-3295, it may be combined with the 3287 low to build a "W" double bottom structure, which is conducive to supporting the rebound of gold.
However, as gold fell below 3300 again, the bearish trend is relatively strong, so we need to moderately lower our expectations for a gold rebound. In the short term, gold is under pressure in the 3315-3325 area, so we can temporarily look to this area for the rebound target. Therefore, in short-term trading, I do not advocate shorting gold directly, and you can first consider going long on gold in the 3300-3295 area, TP: 3310-3320-3330.
Dow Theory – Where Every Market Story BeginsDow Theory – Where Every Market Story Begins
Before Japanese candlesticks, before RSI or MACD — Dow Theory laid the very foundation of technical analysis. It’s not just a dry academic concept — it’s a mental map for understanding how the market truly behaves.
According to Charles Dow, markets always move in trends — and those trends unfold in natural psychological cycles: quiet accumulation, rapid momentum as the crowd joins in, and finally distribution, where smart money exits.
Sounds familiar? That’s because it still holds true to this day.
Why do I believe it’s the best?
Because it’s not an indicator.
It’s not reliant on flashy tools or complex algorithms.
Dow Theory is a mindset — a framework that teaches you how to read price charts like a seasoned analyst reads behaviour.
Over my 15 years in this industry, I’ve tested countless systems. Some worked temporarily. Most didn’t. But the one concept that’s never failed me — especially during market crashes and wild volatility — is the elegance and clarity of Dow Theory.
Once you understand how price moves with purpose, you’ll no longer:
Panic when the market swings
Enter impulsively out of fear
Or chase setups without structure
Instead, you’ll trade with calm, with logic — and with confidence.
The core concepts you must master:
First, the market moves in trends.
There are 3 types:
Primary trend – the dominant direction, lasting months or years
Secondary trend – corrections within the primary move
Minor trend – short-term noise
Second, every primary trend has 3 clear phases:
Accumulation – smart money enters quietly, while the public is still fearful
Public Participation – price breaks out, news gets good, and the crowd jumps in
Distribution – price is high, everyone’s optimistic, but the big players are already selling
Third, volume must confirm price.
A true trend is backed by commitment — and volume is the proof.
Lastly, a trend remains valid until there’s clear structural reversal.
We don’t guess tops or bottoms. We wait for break of structure — then act.
How do I apply this in the real market?
Simple. I start by asking:
What phase are we in?
Are institutions accumulating?
Is this breakout backed by volume?
Has the previous high been broken with momentum?
If yes — I wait for a pullback.
Then I look for a Pin Bar, Engulfing, or Fakey backed by volume.
Then I strike.
Not emotionally. Strategically.
That’s Dow Theory in motion:
Structure before signals
Patience before action
Precision before profit
When is Dow Theory most effective?
When the market has a clear trend
When you trade on H1 and above
When you use price action but need a solid framework
When you want to trade based on behaviour and structure, not just indicators
It works best when you’re not chasing noise — but following narrative.
Final thoughts I want to share with you:
Markets will change.
Tools will evolve.
But the one thing that remains constant is human emotion.
Dow Theory is your compass in that emotional jungle.
It won’t make you rich overnight.
It won’t flash signals every five minutes.
But it will keep you aligned with the market’s true rhythm.
“Great traders don’t just follow price — they understand what’s behind it. Dow Theory teaches you that.”
Would you like me to turn this into a voice-over script, YouTube video outline, or training slides for your class or content platform? Just say the word!
There is still a chance to rebound from the bottomFrom the 4-hour analysis, the support line of 3287-3295 is concerned below, the short-term resistance line of 3316-24 is concerned above, and the watershed of 3345-50 is concerned. The overall main tone of participation in the high-altitude and low-long cycle remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, and follow orders cautiously, and maintain the main tone of participation in the trend. Wait patiently for key points to participate. I will remind you of the specific operation strategy in the link, so pay attention in time.
XAUUSD Short Term Possibility AnalysisGold has an are between 3324 to 3328. It hold for a while there and target back to one hour OB which is residing on 3355 to 3365. Previous day gold move shows intense buying which is sign of potential buying in gold. As weekly candles show strong uptrend the possible move for gold will be in uptrend therefore two scenarios are shared here. If gold breaks 3324 to 3328 support it will possibly target the daily low which is residing on 3295.
Trade Breakdown: XAUUSD 15-Min | Liquidity Grab + Reversal PlayOANDA:XAUUSD
Psychological Setup
This trade is rooted in the psychology of smart money and retail behavior. After a sharp drop in price, most retail traders expect continuation (trend-following). However, institutions often manipulate liquidity zones — hunting for stop-losses before a true reversal. This trade capitalizes on that behavior.
🔍 Technical Explanation:
🔻 1. Market Structure:
Price was previously in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows.
A falling wedge pattern (red lines) formed after a strong bearish move, signaling potential bullish reversal.
Price broke the wedge to the upside — a classic reversal signal.
🔁 2. Liquidity Concept:
Below the wedge: The market grabbed liquidity by taking out stop losses of buyers who entered too early.
Above the wedge (TP Areas):
TP 1 Area (red box): This is the first logical resistance where previous supply sits — many sellers will enter here, providing buy-side liquidity.
Next Target Liquidity (grey box above): This is a major imbalance zone and likely where stop-losses of early short sellers are stacked.
Price is expected to grab liquidity from that area (marked by the red arrow).
✅ Entry & Trade Logic:
Entry Zone: After liquidity was swept at the bottom of the wedge, a bullish engulfing candle formed near demand — signaling institutional interest.
Risk-Reward Setup:
Targeting 0.80% move (approx. 26.48 points).
Trade is based on reversal from demand zone + wedge breakout + liquidity grab confirmation.
🎯 Target Projections:
TP1 Area: Conservative target, just above recent structure.
Final Target: High-probability liquidity zone where market is drawn to clean up resting orders (grey zone).
🧠 Why This Trade Matters (Trading Psychology Insight):
Most retail traders get trapped in emotional entries — entering shorts after a drop or longs too early in a wedge.
Smart money waits for liquidity sweeps before moving price in the desired direction.
This setup shows the importance of patience, structure, and understanding market psychology rather than reacting emotionally to price action.
📌 Key Takeaways:
📉 Trap: Falling wedge builds false bearish confidence.
🧠 Psychology: Stop hunts create fuel for reversal.
📈 Reaction: Smart money absorbs liquidity, moves price toward next inefficiency.
Hashtags:
#XAUUSD #SmartMoney #LiquidityHunt #TradingPsychology #GoldTrade #PriceAction #WedgeBreakout #FXOpen #TechnicalAnalysis #SupplyDemand
Gold BullishAfter exiting a correction, the first impulse (Wave 1) appears. I expect a retracement of at least 50% of the Fibonacci.
