GOLD Relationship Between Gold, Dollar (DXY), Bond Prices, and 10-Year Bond Yields
1. Gold and the Dollar (DXY)
Gold is priced in U.S. dollars, so there is a strong inverse relationship between gold prices and the dollar index (DXY).
When the DXY strengthens, gold becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies, reducing demand and pushing gold prices down.
Recently, gold prices dipped about 0.4% to around $3,294/oz as the DXY shed 0.3%, reflecting a cautious market awaiting U.S.-China trade talks and reacting to stronger U.S. jobs data that tempered expectations of Fed rate cuts.
2. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yields
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and gold generally have an inverse relationship. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, making bonds more attractive.
However, both gold and bond yields can rise simultaneously during inflationary periods or economic uncertainty, reflecting inflation expectations and safe-haven demand.
Recent data shows yields near 4.5%, with gold holding elevated levels above $3,300 and attempted 3328 before dropping due to inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, despite some downward pressure from rising yields.
3. Gold and Bond Prices
Bond prices move inversely to yields; when yields rise, bond prices fall.
Falling bond prices (rising yields) often signal inflation or risk concerns, which can boost gold as an inflation hedge.
Yet, rising yields also raise the opportunity cost of holding gold, which can cap gold’s upside. This dynamic explains why the correlation between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, sometimes showing near-zero correlation .
4. Macro and Market Drivers
Inflation and Safe-Haven Demand: Persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions (e.g., U.S.-China trade talks) support gold demand despite dollar strength and rising yields.
Central Bank Buying: Central banks remain significant gold buyers, underpinning long-term price support.
Economic Data and Fed Policy: Strong U.S. jobs reports reduce expectations of Fed rate cuts, pushing yields up and dollar strength, which can pressure gold short term.
Conclusion
Gold prices in June 2025 are influenced by a complex interplay of factors: a slightly weaker dollar recently has supported gold, but rising 10-year Treasury yields and falling bond prices exert downward pressure. Inflation concerns and geopolitical risks continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a safe haven and inflation hedge. The usual inverse relationship between gold and bond yields has weakened recently, reflecting evolving market dynamics and the balance between inflation expectations and real yields.
#gold #dollar
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold sniper Set UP entrer 🎯 **Setup Sniper XAUUSD – **
📍 Prix spot ~3 325 $
🔹 Entrée : 3 320–3 325 $ (retour vers support zone + MA50)
🔹 TP1 : 3 345 $
🔹 TP2 : 3 360 $
⛔ SL : 3 310 $
Confluence : support structurel + MA50 + RSI > 50 sur le H1.
📈 #Gold #XAUUSD #SniperTrading #TalionPromosale #TradingView
$XAU (GOLD) 15M AnalysisPrice rallied strongly into a bearish FVG (Fair Value Gap) around 3,335 after reclaiming demand...However, this rally lacked conviction and broke structure to the downside, forming a lower high and a weak low retest.
Ideal short setup:
Price returns into the FVG, rejects around 3,333–3,335, then shows signs of displacement downward.
First target: Break below 3,325.
Invalidation: Clean break and close above 3,336.
Bias: Short from FVG zone.
Target: 3,294 area of liquidity.
This is a classic liquidity sweep + FVG rejection setup.
Reclaim of the trendline after sweep.
Price to revisit the FVG zone around 3,335.
Final rejection and breakdown toward 3,294.
XAU / USD 30 Minute ChartHello traders. As per my last analysis a few hours ago, I ended up taking kind of an impulse micro lot scalp Buy trade. Total profit of about 50 pips. Done for the day. Big G gets my thanks. Let's see how things play out over the next few hours. Be well and trade the trend. Happy Monday
Short Gold,gold is expected to test 3300 or even 3280 againAlthough gold is currently above 3310, it does not mean that gold has stopped falling and stabilized. As long as gold remains below 3330-3340, gold is still in a weak state, so I think the decline of gold may not be over yet. Judging from the current trend, I think gold will have to retest 3300 at least again, or even around 3280 before it will have a chance to stop falling and rebound.
So for the grasp of short-term trading opportunities, I think you can consider shorting gold with 3330-3340 as resistance.
GOLD SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
GOLD SIGNAL
Trade Direction: short
Entry Level: 3,316.87
Target Level: 3,146.82
Stop Loss: 3,431.23
RISK PROFILE
Risk level: medium
Suggested risk: 1%
Timeframe: 1D
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
XAUUSD IDEALocally, on the hourly XAUUSD timeframe, we can clearly see how the price is breaking out of the uptrend, thereby triggering a downward impulse.
Resistance levels: 3325, 3343
Support levels: 3303, 3275
The liquidity level of 3300 could act as a magnet for the price, from which a correction to the resistance of the range of 3325 could form (liquidity hunt), but due to the change in the fundamental background, gold may continue its correction to 3275 (support zone) before a possible continuation of growth..▶️📌
Gold has reached the integer mark, and there will be big moves!Short-term analysis of gold; the recent fluctuations of 1-200 US dollars have greatly increased the difficulty of trading for retail investors. It seems that there are many opportunities in a day, but in fact, the big market mainly appears in a few times. If you can't keep up in time, you can only watch the price jump up and down. The most feared thing is not to keep up with the market, but the price returns to the same point, but the principal is gradually reduced.
Last week, gold did not appear purely unilateral, all kinds of reversals, staying at the same point at different times, but many friends suffered heavy losses, which is extremely challenging to the mentality and adaptability. If you still have positions last week, please communicate with me at any time and give the best solution.
Gold operation ideas today;
1; The upper short order can enter the market at the 3400 line, with a stop loss, the target is more than 20 points, today's short only try once at this position, try not to short at other positions
2; The lower long order can be tried at the 3330 line, look at 10-15 points, and lose 8 points. If you want to try long orders, you must strictly set a stop loss.
~If you still hold short positions below, it is recommended to unlock positions in batches. Do not hold positions blindly, as this will be very passive.
I still have a short position.Although gold has risen sharply to above 3380 due to the intensification of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it has not made a substantial breakthrough, and has not stabilized above 3380. The bulls are not determined, which also shows that the technical suppression in the 3290-3295 area above is still strong. If gold does not break through in one fell swoop, gold is likely to usher in a wave of retracement in the short term.
Due to the fundamental impact of tariff issues and geopolitical conflicts, for short-term trading, we should not have too high expectations for the extent of the retracement for the time being, but it is expected to retrace to the 3365-3355 area. In terms of short-term trading, I still hold a short position executed near 3375, and I hope that gold can fall back and hit TP as expected.
Trading strategy:
Consider shorting gold in the 3375-3385 area, TP: 3365-3355
Gold Dynamics: Liquidity, Vulnerabilities & Navigate StrategyGold Market Dynamics: Institutional Liquidity, Retail Vulnerabilities & Navigational Strategies
Where Gold Stands Right Now – Understanding the Footprint
Apologies for the late update—coming back from the Harvest Festival and seeing the market unfold as anticipated reinforces the importance of preparation. The move past $3,337 on Monday was pivotal. It invalidated bear structure and signaled a shift in control, with bulls attempting an ATH breakout.
Yet, was this price move true expansion or an engineered liquidity cycle?
Friday’s close marked the end of May’s candle, offering clues via the latest COMEX delivery report. Monday’s price action validated much of what was beneath the surface—some traders saw excitement in the rally, while others questioned the liquidity mechanics driving it.
📍 Reference the latest COMEX delivery report:
Institutional Liquidity Mechanics – Who’s Controlling the Market?
A deeper look at liquidity reveals Smart Money isn’t necessarily accumulating—it’s cycling liquidity. This means:
✔ Bid-side liquidity is artificially maintained , keeping price elevated without true demand.
✔ Institutions rotate liquidity among themselves , creating synthetic expansion rather than organic growth.
✔ Options positioning suggests controlled breakouts , making price movement engineered rather than naturally driven.
If volume isn’t confirming true demand, price movement alone can be misleading. Retail traders must look beyond price charts and focus on liquidity footprints.
Liquidity Traps – Where Traders Are Vulnerable
🔻 Upper range ($3,350 - $3,509) – The liquidity grab zone
If price enters this range without strong volume confirmation, it may be a setup for liquidation rather than continuation.
🔻 Mid-range trap ($3,250 - $3,320) – False breakout danger
Institutions may cycle liquidity within this zone, making it appear bullish while actually offloading positions.
🔻 Liquidity vacuum below $3,180 – Institutional exit risks
If major players offload, retail traders could be caught in a sharp reversal due to low liquidity support.
Retail traders must question whether price movements reflect genuine market strength or institutional setups designed to lure participation.
Counter-Trading Institutional Manipulation – How to Profit from Market Setups
Instead of reacting emotionally to price movements, traders can leverage institutional tactics to anticipate and counter-trade structured setups.
Liquidity Grab Strategy (Fake Breakouts)
✔ Institutions push price above a psychological level, triggering retail longs.
✔ Retail traders enter aggressively, believing in a breakout—but institutions reverse the move, liquidating trapped orders.
✔ Counter-Strategy: Instead of chasing breakouts, wait for a retest of the trap zone—if institutions start unwinding, position short.
Liquidity Drain Strategy (Forced Sell-Off Dumps)
✔ Market makers pull liquidity from key support zones, triggering cascading sell-offs.
✔ Retail panic sells, allowing institutions to buy back at discounted prices.
✔ Counter-Strategy: Look for volume exhaustion—if aggressive selling lacks follow-through, institutions may be absorbing. Scale into long positions carefully.
Anticipation beats reaction —understanding liquidity footprints allows traders to navigate smartly rather than being caught in institutional setups.
Where Bulls Can Sustain Control – Key Levels & Confirmation Signals
✔ $3,350 - $3,509 → This liquidity zone requires strong volume confirmation for bulls to retain control.
✔ $3,403 - $3,418 → This is the ultimate bull territory —if price sustains above this range, it signals institutional commitment rather than short-term liquidity rotation.
✔ $3,250 - $3,320 → If price falls back into this range, bulls lose momentum, and institutions may start offloading positions.
Risk Factors for Bulls Losing Control
🚨 Liquidity Vacuum Below $3,180 → If institutions exit aggressively, price may reverse sharply.
🚨 Retail Overexposure → If retail traders pile into longs without institutional backing, bulls may struggle to maintain control.
Navigational Strategies – Positioning Smartly Against Institutional Setups
✔ Monitor COMEX reports for footprint shifts —commercial hedging activity offers leading signals.
✔ Watch bid/ask imbalances carefully —if bids vanish after strong moves, it signals engineered price action.
✔ Stay adaptable—market cycles evolve quickly —those who anticipate structural shifts avoid unnecessary exposure.
Final Thought: Mindfulness Over Reaction
A market driven by institutional liquidity engineering demands traders to be aware, mindful, and adaptable —those who simply react to price risk becoming liquidity fuel for institutions.
Gold Price Analysis June 11Yesterday's D1 candle was still a balance candle closing below the important breakout zone 3347.
Today's Asian session saw strong buying pressure pushing the price back close to the important resistance zone in shaping the trend. At the end of the Asian session, it failed to break 3342, giving a SELL signal to 3327
The breakout zone 3310 is also very important to wait for price reaction for BUY scalping points. 3295 is an important daily support zone. If there is a price slide from 3295, do not BUY until it touches the support zone 3275.
In the opposite direction of today's Break 3345, wait for 3363-3365 to SELL. The 3345 zone is considered a Breakout zone when broken to trade BUY.
XAUUSD - Next Course of ActionXAUUSD is near the Liquidity Area 3337-3344, if 1H time frame candle closes above this area then on the confirmation of RSI, you can go for Buy Trade setup with the following Targets:-
TP1 at 3354
TP2 at 3359
TP3 at 3365
TP4 at 3375 (By Trailing Stop Loss)
But if it pullback from the are then you can place a Sell Trade below 3333 with the following Targets:-
TP1@3319
TP2@3293
TP3@3275 (by trailing stop loss)
Always wait for proper confirmation before you plan your trades...
This setup is for educational purposes...
Do your own research before trading in Gold, we are not responsible for your loss...
Bears counterattacked strongly, is the 3300 mark in danger?Gold bulls collapsed! Bears counterattacked strongly, is the 3300 mark in danger?
Fundamental analysis
Safe-haven demand weakened
The call between the leaders of China and the United States released a signal of easing trade tensions, the market risk appetite rebounded, and gold rose and fell.
Spot gold once hit a four-week high of $3,403 during the week, but eventually closed down 1.26% to $3,310.
The market is paying attention to the US non-farm data and the policy trends of the Federal Reserve. If the data is strong or strengthens the expectation of interest rate hikes, it may further suppress the gold price.
Despite the short-term pressure, the gold price has risen by 28% this year, and its long-term safe-haven attribute has not changed.
Technical analysis
Weekly level
The pattern shows significant pressure from above, and the MACD high dead cross sign indicates that the bears may continue to test the 3300 mark.
Daily level
The decline for several consecutive days broke the short-term moving average (5-day/10-day moving average), and the MACD dead cross increased in volume, which was overall bearish.
The key support moves up to 3295 (Bolin middle rail), if it fails, it will open up downward space.
4-hour level
The price breaks below the Bollinger lower rail, the moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the MACD dead cross has sufficient momentum. The short-term may test the 3280 support.
Operation strategy
Resistance level
Short-term: 3328-3330 (short dividing point)
Strong resistance: 3345-3350 (breakthrough will slow down the downward rhythm)
Support level
Primary: 3290-3280 (beginning of the week target)
After breaking, look to the 3250-3230 area
Recommendations
Main strategy: short-selling on the rebound to the 3328-3332 area, stop loss above 3345, target 3290-3280.
Auxiliary strategy: light long orders at the first touch of 3280, stop loss below 3270, target 3300-3310.
Risk warning: If the non-farm data is lower than expected or the geopolitical situation changes suddenly, be wary of a bullish counterattack.
XAUUSD:Focus on trade negotiations and CPI dataGold prices stabilized and rebounded after continuing last Friday's decline. Yesterday, they fell back to the 3,300 level before rising slowly to 3,338, where they encountered resistance and pulled back, in line with the technical consolidation rhythm.
Key Fundamental Events:
- China-US trade negotiations: The US has signaled a willingness to relax export restrictions, and the market is awaiting the outcome, which could impact risk sentiment.
- US May CPI data: Inflation changes will provide key guidance for the Federal Reserve's policy.
Technical Levels:
- Support: 3,295 and 3,285
- Resistance: 3,330 and 3,350
Trading Strategies:
- The current trend is weak but with limited downside space. Focus on buying on dips and avoid shorting aggressively.
- Consider staying on the sidelines today and waiting for clear negotiation results before entering positions to reduce volatility risks.
Risk Warning:
Escalating internal conflicts in the US (such as the Los Angeles riots) may intensify market volatility. Traders should adapt flexibly and avoid greedy chasing of orders.
XAUUSD
sell@3335-3330
tp:3310-3300
buy@3295-3300
tp:3320-3330
I am committed to sharing trading signals every day. Among them, real-time signals will be flexibly pushed according to market dynamics. All the signals sent out last week accurately matched the market trends, helping numerous traders achieve substantial profits. Regardless of your previous investment performance, I believe that with the support of my professional strategies and timely signals, I will surely be able to assist you in breaking through investment bottlenecks and achieving new breakthroughs in the trading field.
Gold analysis – 1H FVG and OB setupPrice failed to hold at the first 1H FVG (red circle) and broke through quickly.
At the second 1H FVG (green circle), we entered a Buy position, and it’s currently running in profit ✅
Now, price is testing another 1H FVG around 3,327. If we get bullish confirmation here, upside targets are:
🔹 1H OB at 3,370
🔹 1H OB near 3,390–3,410
If price gets rejected again, watch for retracement into lower FVG zones: 3,290 and 3,250
Smart Money Concepts in play – watching PA for next move.
📊 ProfitaminFX | Gold, BTC & EUR/USD
📚 Daily setups & educational trades
📱 IG: @profitamin.fx
XAUUSD CHARTINGThis chart was made for the team to be able to follow what the market is going to do...
We're looking for a deep sell to the LH side breaking from the HL and the watch the market reverse to retest again the 3311-3319 area if we see a break of the area the market will continue to 3360 with some ranging and fluctuations.
- 3241-3278 Becareful of this holy Grail Liq Sweep... If market comes down near this area wait for 4 candle confirmation after ranging period.