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Exhaustion Today, we will break down candle exhaustion and how to use it for high-probability trade entries. We will analyze a bearish engulfing pattern, the role of trendline breaks, and how we combined this with the ORB strategy at the US open to secure a strong entry for the 2905 target. What is Candle Exhaustion? Candle exhaustion occurs when price action slows down after a strong move, showing signs that buyers or sellers are losing strength. This is often seen through smaller-bodied candles, wicks rejecting key levels, or a sharp engulfing candle reversing prior movement. Candle exhaustion smaller body's larger wicks. A bearish engulfing candle formed, engulfing three previous candles, signaling that sellers have aggressively stepped in. This confirmed a shift in momentum, suggesting that buyers were losing control. Key Takeaway: A multi-candle engulfing increases the strength of the reversal signal. The 15-minute trendline was broken, adding further confluence for a shift in market structure Early entry model Price came and tapped the supply zone, rejecting and closing under trend. This was the 2nd confirmation of sells. This 2nd engulfing was the 3rd confirmation sellers have taken control. The US session opened at 2:30 PM, a key time for volatility. We then applied the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) strategy to refine our 2nd entry. With price under the 50 moving average The breakout confirmed momentum towards our 2905 target, aligning with our pre-trade analysis. Conclusion By recognizing candle exhaustion, engulfing patterns, and trendline breaks, we stacked confluences for a high-probability sell trade. The ORB strategy allowed us to refine our 2nd execution at the perfect time. Lesson: Trading is about patience, waiting for confirmations, and executing with confidence.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by samstoobad
XAU/USD 04 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025. Price is currently trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720 Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023. As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price. On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent . Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
Updated XAU/USD (Gold) Multi-Timeframe Analysis – March 4, 2025Analyzing M15, M30, H1, H4, and D1 charts for a precise trade execution strategy. 1. Market Structure Overview (Multi-Timeframe) M15 (15-Minute Chart) CHoCH (Change of Character) indicates bullish momentum. Currently testing equilibrium (~$2,888 - $2,890). Weak high at PDH (Previous Day’s High) around $2,893, which may act as resistance. M30 (30-Minute Chart) Break of structure (BOS) confirms bullish short-term trend. Price is hovering near PDH ($2,893). If it fails to break above $2,895, a short-term rejection is possible. H1 (1-Hour Chart) Bullish CHoCH confirms the short-term uptrend. PDH ($2,893) remains a crucial level. If broken, a rally toward $2,910 - $2,920 is likely. H4 (4-Hour Chart) Testing supply zone at PDH ($2,893). Potential retracement to $2,865 - $2,870 before continuation higher**. D1 (Daily Chart) Price bounced from a key demand zone around $2,850. Still bearish on the higher timeframe unless price reclaims $2,920 - $2,950. If $2,900 - $2,920 rejects, more downside is expected. 2. Expected Scenarios & Probability Scenario 1: Short-Term Bearish Rejection (60% Probability) If price fails to break $2,895 - $2,900, expect a rejection down to $2,870 - $2,865. Confirmation: Bearish rejection candle at PDH ($2,893). Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (40% Probability) If price closes above $2,895, expect a move toward $2,910 - $2,920. Confirmation: Strong breakout and candle close above $2,895. 3. Trading Plan Sell Setup: (Primary Trade - 60% Probability) Entry: $2,893 - $2,895. SL: $2,905 (Above resistance). TP1: $2,880 (First liquidity level). TP2: $2,870 (Discount zone). TP3: $2,865 (Major demand zone). Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3. Buy Setup: (Countertrend - 40% Probability) Entry: $2,895 - $2,900. SL: $2,885 (Below weak low). TP1: $2,910 (Short-term liquidity). TP2: $2,920 (Key supply zone). Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3. 4. Final Trade Execution Summary: Trade Type Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit 1 Take-Profit 2 Take-Profit 3 R:R Sell Setup $2,893 - $2,895 $2,905 $2,880 $2,870 $2,865 1:3 Buy Setup $2,895 - $2,900 $2,885 $2,910 $2,920 - 1:3 📌 Additional Execution Tips: Watch for a rejection at $2,893 - $2,895 before shorting. If price closes above $2,895, shift to buy mode. Use M5/M15 for precise entries and candle confirmations. Avoid entering during high-impact news releases. Risk per trade: 1-2% of capital for optimal risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by wizzywise1
3.3 Short-term technical analysis of goldThe gold market completed its February structure last week. Looking back at the market in February, the market fell back after opening at 2880.9 at the beginning of the month. The monthly line reached a low of 2770.47 and then the market fluctuated and rose strongly. The monthly line reached a high of 2956.3 and then the market fell back due to profit-taking in the late trading. The monthly line finally closed at 2859 and closed in an inverted hammer pattern with an upper shadow longer than the lower shadow. After the end of this pattern, the market will have certain pressure to continue to adjust in early March. However, the large cyclical bullish pattern is complete and the trend is still bullish.
TVC:GOLDLong
by AIan_Gold
XAU/USD 10-14 March 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis: Swing Structure -> Bullish. Internal Structure -> Bullish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025. Price has printed a further bullish iBOS. Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line. Price Action Analysis: In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH. Note: It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend. Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. Weekly Chart: Daily Analysis: Swing -> Bullish. Internal -> Bullish. As per analysis dated 16 February 2025 price has printed a bearish CHoCH which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation Price is now trading within an established internal range. I will however continue to monitor price and depth of pullback. Expectation is for price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 2,956.310. Note: With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. Daily Chart: H4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis/Bias remains the same as analysis dated 07 March 2024. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025. Price is currently trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720 Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK
3/10 Gold price range: 2885----29303/10 Gold price range: 2885----2930 This week, the gold price closed positive, but it has not broken through the range. Currently, gold is in a high consolidation stage. The daily K-line shows an obvious oscillation pattern: The upper pressure is at 2930 points The lower support is around 2891 points and 2885 points. In terms of operation ideas, it is recommended to adopt a low-multiple strategy in the range. The specific operations are as follows: Long order suggestions: long near 2896, stop loss set at 2888, target 2916, 2925. Short order suggestions: If the upper 2930-2925 pressure area is not broken, consider shorting, and the target is the support level within the range. If it breaks through: The upper breakthrough continues to rise, and the pressure is at the high point of 2945-2956; the lower breakthrough continues to be bearish; the support is at 2870-2860! It should be noted that the trend of next Monday is still unclear, and the specific operation needs to be adjusted according to the actual situation after the opening. I will post my guide below the article as soon as possible. Thank you for your comments and attention.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Louisa_King
GOLD 4 HOURS MOVE WILL POSSIBLE AFTER WEEKEDThe daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows is little changed for a second consecutive day, yet at the same time, it posted a lower high and a lower low, which skews the risk to the downside. However, the same chart shows that intraday dips below a bullish 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) quickly attract buyers. Technical indicators, in the meantime, remain within positive levels, although with uneven strength. The near-term picture shows buyers battling to retain control. The XAU/USD pair is currently developing above all its moving averages, although a flat 100 SMA stands at $2,911.50. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, advances below the longer one. Finally, technical indicators diverge around their midlines, with the Momentum indicator aiming lower yet the Relative Strength Index (RSI) advancing. The bearish potential remains limited, with dips likely to keep attracting buyers. Support levels: 2,911.50 2,894.25 2,876.90 Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10 Fundamental Overview Spot Gold consolidated in the $2,910 region for most of this Thursday, attracting buyers on an intraday dip to $2,891.27. Financial markets kept swinging at the pace of sentiment, with prevalent demand for safety maintaining the bright metal afloat.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex_Gold_Signals
XAU/USD 07 March 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Price has printed a bullish CHoCH according to analysis and bias dated 28 February 2025. Price is currently trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price is now trading in premium of 50% internal EQ where we could see a reaction at any point. Price could also target H4 supply zone before targeting weak internal low, priced at 2,832.720 Note: With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment. Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty. H4 Chart: M15 Analysis: -> Swing: Bullish. -> Internal: Bearish. Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 March 2023. As mentioned in my analysis dated 28 February 2025, whereby price printed a bullish CHoCH but stated I would continue to monitor price. On this occasion I have marked the previous bullish CHoCH in red as price did not pull back deeply enough to warrant internal structure breaks, additionally, there was minimal time spent. Price has printed a further bullish CHoCH which is now confirmed. Price is not trading within an established internal range. Intraday Expectation: Price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ, or M15 supply zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 2,832.720. Note: With the Federal Reserve maintaining a dovish stance and ongoing geopolitical tensions, volatility in Gold prices is expected to remain elevated. Traders should exercise caution, adjust risk management strategies, and stay prepared for potential price whipsaws in this high-volatility environment. M15 Chart:
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Khan_YIK