GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold Price Rises on Tariff Tensions and Geopolitical RisksGold jumped nearly 3% as President Trump announced plans to double tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports to 50% starting June 4, fueling safe-haven demand and weakening the U.S. Dollar. The EU expressed strong regret and warned of potential countermeasures.
The rally continued on Tuesday (June 3) as geopolitical tensions escalated. Ukraine launched its largest drone attack on Russian airbases, while Moscow responded with long-range strikes on Kyiv. These events, combined with weak U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (May: 48.5, lowest since Nov), added to market anxiety.
Investors are watching the Fed’s upcoming statements for clues on rate direction. Lower interest rates and global instability continue to support gold’s bullish case.
Technical Outlook – XAUUSD
Gold hit $3,371, then pulled back slightly, but remains on track to reach $3,400 soon. A short-term bullish channel is forming, and RSI above 50 suggests more upside potential.
Pullbacks above the 21-day EMA and 0.382 Fibonacci level are likely temporary corrections or buy opportunities.
Support: 3,326 – 3,300 – 3,292
Resistance: 3,371 – 3,400 – 3,435
XAU/USD 03 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 22 May 2025.
In my analysis from 12 May 2025, I noted that price had yet to target the weak internal high, including on the H4 timeframe. This aligns with the ongoing corrective bearish pullback across higher timeframes, so a bearish internal Break of Structure (iBOS) was a likely outcome.
As anticipated, price targeted strong internal low, confirming a bearish iBOS.
Price has remained within the internal range for an extended period and has yet to target the weak internal low. A contributing factor could be the bullish nature of the H4 timeframe's internal range, which has reacted from a discounted level at 50% of the internal equilibrium (EQ).
Intraday Expectation:
Technically price to continue bullish, react at either premium of internal 50% EQ or M15 demand zone before targeting weak internal low priced at 3,120.765.
Alternative scenario:
Price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance and persistent geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Long idea on GoldLooking to long gold from 3326 area.
Technical Reasoning-
38 Fib
TL Break Retest
Psych level (25)
Look for alignment on a BR movement with DXY
Current sentiment is risk off going into the London session, if this sentiment stays then the long is valid.
Final target for the movement is to 3400. Partial profit taking along the ride is always a good idea.
Have not posted here in a minute, will become more frequent now.
My shift has changed, I am predominantly trading gold, I also am trading USDJPY, however trades on UJ have to have alignment with DXY 100% of the time for the trade to be valid, therefore trades won't be as frequent but accurate. Similar notion applies to gold, with such strong correlation to DXY when the market is dollar driven (Roughly 80% of the time), gold has beautiful alignment with DXY.
Good to be back in the game.
Catch you later traders ☀️
BEST XAUUSD M30 BUY SETUP FOR TODAY 📈 Gold (XAU/USD) is showing bullish momentum on the 30-min chart, trading within a rising parallel channel. Price has recently bounced from lower support and is aiming for the resistance zone near $3,331. 🔼 A breakout above this level could signal further upside, continuing the bullish wave structure. Traders should watch for pullbacks to the lower trendline as potential buying opportunities. 🧠💡 As long as price stays above the $3,251 support, the bullish bias remains intact. 📊✨
XAUUSD Expecting Bullish movementResistance Levels Marked in Pink
1 First Target Zone
3,310 Minor resistance level potential breakout confirmation
2 Second Target Zone
3,320 Stronger resistance could be the next consolidation point
3 Final Target Zone
3,330 Major resistance level, marking a possible end to the bullish move or a reversal zone
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish ReversalBased on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3327.70, which is a pullback resistance aligning with a 38.2% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 3286.88, a pullback support level.
The stop loss will be placed at 13363.76, an overlap resistance.
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XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**## 🟣 **XAUUSD Sell Setup Analysis (June 9)**
### 🔹 **Entry Zone:** 3320–3323
Price is entering a short-term **supply zone** or resistance band — potentially a previous H1/H4 reaction point.
---
### ✅ **Reasons for the Sell:**
1. **Resistance Retest (H1/H4)**
* 3320–3323 acted as support-turned-resistance earlier.
* Price bounced off this area previously → now offering a clean retest zone.
2. **Wick Rejection / Exhaustion Signs**
* On lower timeframes (M15–M30), price shows wicks and slowing bullish candles near 3320, suggesting weakness.
3. **Bearish Divergence Potential**
* Possible divergence on RSI or MACD if price spikes above 3320 while momentum slows.
4. **Short-Term Overbought Conditions**
* Following a rally into 3323, price may correct downward to clear liquidity below.
---
### 🎯 **Target Zones (TPs):**
| TP | Level | Logic |
| ------- | ----- | --------------------------------------------- |
| **TP1** | 3317 | Minor intraday low / structure break zone |
| **TP2** | 3312 | Pre-breakout base from earlier H1 candles |
| **TP3** | 3305 | Key demand zone — possible reaction area |
| **TP4** | 3299 | Stronger support, possible daily bounce level |
---
### ❌ **STOP LOSS: 3328**
This is a solid SL zone:
* Just above the local highs and outside most false breakouts
* Keeps your R\:R clean (1:2 to 1:4 range depending on TP)
---
### 📊 **Summary:**
| Element | Value |
| -------------- | ----------- |
| Direction | **Sell** 📉 |
| Entry Zone | 3320–3323 |
| Stop Loss | 3328 |
| TP1 | 3317 |
| TP2 | 3312 |
| TP3 | 3305 |
| TP4 | 3299 |
| R\:R Potential | Up to 1:4 |
---
XAUUSD CHARTINGThis chart was made for the team to be able to follow what the market is going to do...
We're looking for a deep sell to the LH side breaking from the HL and the watch the market reverse to retest again the 3311-3319 area if we see a break of the area the market will continue to 3360 with some ranging and fluctuations.
- 3241-3278 Becareful of this holy Grail Liq Sweep... If market comes down near this area wait for 4 candle confirmation after ranging period.
XAU / USD 4 HOur ChartHello traders. Welcome to a new trading week. I have marked my current area of interest on the chart. That area of interest is also what I am waiting for a break out from . I can see both scalp buy and sell potential trade set ups. Patience is key. Let's see how the overnight sessions play out. Be well and trade the trend. Big G gets all my thanks.
XAUUSD Trendline Retest in Play — Eyes on Confluence ZoneGold (XAUUSD) is testing a key higher timeframe trendline with strong confluence. The break is clean — now we watch for the retest. Entry location’s uncertain, so the stop sits wisely below the prior HTF bounce. Targeting the opposite trendline and nearby consolidation zone.
XAU/USD 09-13 June 2025 Weekly AnalysisWeekly Analysis:
Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 16 March 2025.
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024 I mentioned (below) that price could potentially print higher-highs in order to reposition CHoCH. This is exactly how price printed. CHoCH positioning has been brought significantly closer to current price action. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a shortened blue dotted horizontal line.
The remainder of my analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 09 February 2025.
Price has printed a further bullish iBOS.
Price is currently trading within an internal low and fractal high. CHoCH positioning is denoted with a blue dashed line.
Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had repositioned previous CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks. Current CHoCH positioning is quite a distance away from price, therefore, it would be viable if price continued bullish to reposition ChOCH.
Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.
Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.
Price could also be driven by President Trump's policies, geopolitical moves and economic decisions which are sparking uncertainty and potential repricing of Gold.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Analysis:
Swing -> Bullish.
Internal -> Bullish.
Analysis and Bias remains the same as Analysis dated 11 May 2025.
Since my last weekly analysis price has finally printed a bearish CHoCH.
This is the first indication, but not confirmation of bearish pullback phase initiation.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Price should now technically trade down to either discount of 50% internal EQ, or Daily demand zone before targeting weak internal high, priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s continued dovish stance, coupled with escalating geopolitical uncertainties, is expected to sustain elevated market volatility, influencing both intraday and broader trend developments.
Additionally, price action may be further shaped by U.S. policy decisions, including measures enacted under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic policymaking could introduce further uncertainty, contributing to the ongoing repricing dynamics within the gold market.
Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
XAU USD LONG RESULT Gold price was in a minor ascending wedge channel and under an overall bearish major Trendline. But I intended to take the long position to the resistance of the zone and Trendline.
Which price did move as expected just missing my entry before heading to TP.
Better Setups and follow ups😉
_THE_KLASSIC_TRADER_.
XAUUSD📉Gold Market Outlook – Bearish Setup in Play
Current Price: 3324.00
Recent price structure and momentum suggest a potential bearish continuation below key resistance levels.
🔍 Technical View:
Price is consistently trading below the 50-period moving average, signaling short-term weakness.
A series of lower highs and lower lows indicate a bearish market structure.
RSI is trending below 50, reflecting fading bullish momentum.
Failure to reclaim the 3355–3345 resistance zone reinforces downside risk.
🔻 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance Zone: 3355.00 – 3345.00
Sustained trading below this range may open the door to:
3300.00
3284.00
📉 Major Breakdown Scenario:
A 3-day consecutive close below 3384.00 could confirm a structural shift, exposing gold to a deeper sell-off toward 3200.00.
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer:
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
Gold could hold ahead of the FedUpward pressure from fundamentals and sentiment has been somewhat lower in June so far as trade tension has generally calmed down and stock markets have mostly recovered well from April’s turmoil. Lower volatility is clear from both contracting Bollinger Bands and ATR, which has declined since last month but remains high at around $56.
5 June’s attempt at $3,400 hasn’t been decisively rejected yet, so it’d be quite possible to see the price moving somewhat beyond there intraday in the middle of June, but another vigorous phase of the main uptrend immediately seems less likely. The 100% weekly Fibonacci extension around $3,480 seems like a potentially strong resistance although it’s only been tested once so far on 22 April.
Equally, the area around the equivalent 61.8% Fibo and the 161.8% monthly Fibo extension would probably cap losses unless there’s a strong driver of some sort. That might be a sudden resolution of trade tension or a major hawkish shift by the Fed, both of which seem quite unlikely. Overall, the situation seems to favour short-term traders for now.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.