"Gold (XAUUSD) is moving down to grab liquidity."Looking for Impulse Down.
Gold/XauUsd: This chart shows a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS) following a liquidity sweep (SMT) near the highs. Price is now respecting a bearish order block and forming lower highs, indicating smart money distribution.
Targeting sell-side liquidity at 3274.75 and 3246.50. Until price reclaims the most recent supply (above 3,300), the bearish bias remains intact.
Educational Use Only: This breakdown is for study and informational purposes and is not financial advice.
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XAU/USD 1H Outlook
FVG Fill (3320–3318)
Price is expected to drop into the unfilled Fair Value Gap between 3320 and 3318.
London/NY Liquidity Hunt
After filling the FVG, look for a swift bullish impulse during the London and New York sessions to trigger stop-runs and collect liquidity.
Downward Correction to 3305 & 3298
Once the liquidity grab completes, expect a retracement:
First target: 3305
On a break below 3305, next target is the unfilled FVG at 3298
Summary:
Drop → FVG fill (3320–3318) → Bullish liquidity hunt (London/NY) → Retracement toward 3305 (then 3298)
short gold week The market is at a point where we must sell, it's at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so prepare for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the lows, it will continue to go down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, that is, a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks; it is not an ABC, but 5 bearish waves.
Gold (XAUUSD) Analysis : Bullish Structure Setup + Target🧠 Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis
Gold has recently been trading within a clearly defined descending channel, which has governed price action over the past several sessions. This structure is characterized by a series of lower highs and lower lows, forming well-established channel resistance and channel support levels. However, recent bullish pressure has led price to aggressively test the upper boundary of this channel, signaling the potential for a structural breakout.
We are now at a technical inflection point, where a successful breakout and retest could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal and short-to-medium term bullish move.
🔍 Key Technical Levels & Zones
🔷 Channel Resistance (~3,325)
The price is currently testing the descending trendline acting as channel resistance.
This area has previously rejected price several times, increasing its significance.
A confirmed break and close above this level may shift the market bias from bearish to bullish.
🔷 Central Zone – Dual Demand (~3,325–3,330)
This horizontal zone intersects with the channel resistance and aligns with two previous demand zones, now acting as a key decision area.
The market must validate this zone as new support before any sustained upward movement can occur.
🔷 Next Reversal Zone – Target (~3,370)
The next major area of interest lies around 3,370, a zone identified by previous swing highs and visible liquidity pools.
This level is likely to act as a magnet for price if bullish structure is confirmed.
📈 Price Structure Outlook
The potential breakout is supported by a strong bullish impulse off the channel support, followed by a series of higher lows suggesting growing bullish momentum. The projected movement scenario is as follows:
Break above the channel resistance
Retest and confirm the central zone as support
Continuation toward the 3,370 reversal zone
This would complete a classic break–retest–continuation pattern.
✅ Trade Considerations (Not Financial Advice)
Entry Type Entry Condition Target Stop Loss
Aggressive Break & 2H close above 3,330 3,370 Below 3,320
Conservative Retest & bullish confirmation above 3,325 3,370 Below 3,310
Risk Management:
Use position sizing aligned with your risk tolerance (max 1–2% per trade).
Monitor volume closely during breakout and retest for confirmation.
⚠️ Invalidation Scenario
If price fails to break above the channel and is rejected strongly, especially with a bearish engulfing or long upper wick, the downside could resume. In such a case, price may revisit the channel midline or even the lower boundary around 3,290.
📝 Summary
Gold is at a critical juncture, testing long-standing channel resistance.
A break above and successful retest of the 3,325–3,330 zone could lead to a rally toward 3,370.
This setup reflects a potential shift in structure from bearish to bullish on the 2H timeframe.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 10, 2025
🌀 Elliott Wave Structure
On the H4 timeframe, price has returned to test the upper boundary of the converging triangle – currently acting as dynamic resistance. Based on the current wave count, wave e (purple) may have completed at the 3279 low, and price is potentially starting a breakout move.
👉 A confirmed breakout above the triangle would validate the end of the abcde correction and mark the beginning of a new upward trend.
🔋 Momentum Analysis
D1 timeframe: As forecasted yesterday, momentum is entering oversold territory and showing early signs of a reversal. This suggests that an upward trend could dominate over the next 5 days.
H4 timeframe: The two momentum lines are sticking together, indicating a weakening upward drive. A minor pullback may be needed before the next leg up. Key nearby resistance levels to watch are 3330 and 3342.
🎯 Key Price Levels & Validation Zones
The following support zones are crucial for identifying potential entries:
Support Zone 1: 3306 – 3308
Support Zone 2: 3294 – 3297
‼️ Important: A break below 3294 would invalidate the current wave structure, and a new count would be required.
📌 Trade Plan
Scenario 1 – Buy at higher support:
Buy Zone: 3308 – 3306
SL: 3303
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390
Scenario 2 – Buy at deeper support (if stronger correction occurs):
Buy Zone: 3297 – 3294
SL: 3287
TP1: 3342
TP2: 3366
TP3: 3390
Scenario 3 – Safer option (breakout confirmation):
Wait for a breakout above the triangle, then enter on the retest (around 3325–3330)
SL: Based on structure formed during the retest
TP range: 3366 – 3390
📌 Preferred strategy: Wait for H4 to reach oversold or wait for a confirmed breakout and retest to enter safely in alignment with the new uptrend.
Gold on Hold: Consolidation Without a SignalGold is holding up well for now and consolidating at the current level. But there’s no clear opportunity to buy or sell. It’s just guesswork at this point. And why would I need that? I want to make money, not to be "right."
On a global, long-term horizon (up to a year), I believe the metal will go higher. On the daily and weekly charts, the trend is still upward, and both geopolitical factors and the Fed’s rate policy support the continuation of the trend. But when exactly will it happen? That’s unclear. For now, there are no setups for a trade.
Interestingly, gold and other precious metals might move in different directions. Gold could start a correction while other metals could rise, as they are undervalued. But undervaluation isn’t a direct reason to buy. It’s always better to follow this rule: the market knows better than all of us what the fair price should be right now. Still, when it comes to entering a position, my opinion that the metal is undervalued can be taken into account—and if there’s a proper setup, the entry can be made. It’s like a puzzle. One factor is one piece, then another, and another—and once the full picture comes together, that’s when we enter the position.
Gold Price Analysis - 4-Hour Chart4-hour candlestick chart for the Gold Spot price in U.S. Dollars (XAUUSD), sourced from OANDA. The chart displays the price movement over time, with green candles indicating an increase in price and red candles indicating a decrease. The chart also features various technical indicators and annotations, including a trend line and a support level.
Trade Analysis (GOLD – XAUUSD)
Trade Analysis (GOLD – XAUUSD)
This chart highlights a classic bullish reversal setup forming after an extended downtrend. Here's the breakdown:
Descending Channel Structure: Price moved within a well-defined falling channel, forming lower highs and lower lows. This is often a sign of controlled bearish pressure rather than a full-on collapse.
Liquidity Grabs: Key swing highs and lows (circled) show areas where liquidity was swept before price reversed. These are classic signs of institutional moves clearing stop zones.
Bullish Breakout & Retest: Price eventually broke out of the descending channel to the upside, then came back for a clean retest of the structure—confirming the breakout is valid.
Higher Low Formation: After the retest, price formed a higher low, signaling buyer strength and potential for a trend reversal.
Projected Bullish Move: Based on market structure and momentum, we anticipate a bullish continuation towards higher highs as shown by the projection.
Gold is in a tug-of-war again
The oscillating pattern under the tug-of-war between gold risk aversion and the dollar
News: The interweaving of long and short factors has caused gold to fall into a tug-of-war
Positive factors:
Trump's new tariff policy: The United States will impose a 25% tariff on Japanese and Korean goods from August 1, and US stocks fell in response. The market's risk aversion sentiment has increased, and the price of gold has rebounded from a low of 3296 points to 3345 points.
The central bank continues to buy gold: The People's Bank of China continued to increase its gold holdings in June, buying for the eighth consecutive month, which has long supported the price of gold.
The long-term weakness of the US dollar: Although the US dollar index has strengthened in the short term, it has fallen 10% this year, close to a three-and-a-half-year low. Gold is still attractive as an anti-inflation asset.
Negative factors:
The US dollar has strengthened in the short term: Boosted by strong non-agricultural data, the US dollar index rebounded to 97.67, suppressing gold buying (especially non-US currency holders).
Geopolitical risks have cooled: There has been no major conflict in the international situation recently, and the demand for safe havens has declined. The rise in gold prices lacks sustainability.
Personal opinion:
Gold is currently in the game stage of "safe-haven support level vs. US dollar suppression level", and the short-term trend depends on the market's expectations of the Fed's policies and trade frictions. If the US dollar continues to rebound, gold prices may be under pressure; but if US economic data weakens or geopolitical risks reappear, gold prices may break through the range of fluctuations.
Technical aspect: shock narrowing, direction to be broken
Daily level: range fluctuations (3295-3345), moving average adhesion, unclear trend, need to wait for breakthrough signals.
Key points:
Resistance level: 3345 (multiple highs fall back, break through to see 3400).
Support level: 3295-3300 (break through may fall to 3270-3260).
4-hour chart: MACD golden cross is fragile. If the price falls below 3320, it may turn into a dead cross, exacerbating the risk of a pullback.
Weakness of hourly chart: K-line is under pressure from the short-term moving average. If the rebound in the early trading is weak, it may continue to fluctuate downward.
Personal strategy:
Short-term bearish: Before the effective breakthrough of 3345, you can lightly hold short orders, and wait for the price to rebound to 3320-3330 before testing short orders, with the target at 3300-3295.
Bull opportunity: It may pull back to the support area of 3290-3295 to stabilize, and you can arrange long orders.
Summary and operation suggestions
Core logic: Gold is stuck in the deadlock of "news disturbance + technical shock", and we need to be wary of false breakthroughs.
Key points: Upward breakthrough: If it stands firm at 3345, it will look to 3400. Downside risk: If it loses 3295, it may test the support of 3270-3260.
Subjective tendency: In the short term, it is more inclined to bearish volatility, because the dollar is strong and the sustainability of risk aversion is questionable. However, if the Fed releases dovish signals or US stocks fall sharply, gold may reverse quickly.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Chart4-hour chart from OANDA displays the recent price movement of Gold Spot (XAU/USD) against the U.S. Dollar. The current price is $3,325.120, reflecting a decrease of $11.320 (-0.34%). The chart highlights a recent upward trend with a buy signal at $3,325.410 and a sell signal at $3,324.830, indicating a potential trading range. A shaded area suggests a possible price target or support/resistance zone around $3,355.478, with historical price levels marked on the right side. The timeframe covers the period around July 7-8, 2025.
XAUUSD Outlook: How Risk Sentiment Could Shape the Next MoveI’m currently analysing XAUUSD (Gold) 🟡, which has come under bearish pressure 📉, showing signs of downside momentum. In the video 🎥, we also explore the inverse correlation between Gold and risk assets like the NASDAQ 📊.
Keep a close eye on NASDAQ movements—if risk assets break bullish 🚀, we may see further weakness in Gold. On the other hand, if risk sentiment shifts and risk assets break bearish 🛑, Gold could attract safe-haven demand and gain strength 💪.
We also dive into the price action, market structure, and pull up the volume profile 🧩. Gold is currently trading around the Point of Control (POC) ⚖️—a key level where significant volume has accumulated. A clean break above or below this area could act as a technical trigger for the next move 📈📉.
As always, this is not financial advice ⚠️—just my market view.
XAUUSD Hello traders,
Today we're taking advantage of a great buying opportunity on the XAUUSD pair. This setup is ideal for both medium- and long-term positions. I anticipate that the price will rise toward the 3392.82 USD level in the coming weeks.
That’s why I’ve positioned this trade as a medium-term opportunity.
Gold H1 | Approaching an overlap resistanceGold (XAU/USD) is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 3,344.65 which is an overlap resistance.
Stop loss is at 3,368.00 which is a level that sits above a swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 3,313.35 which is a pullback support.
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Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Tuesday, 8th July 2024)Bias: No Bias
USD News(Red Folder):
-None
Notes:
- No exact bias, expecting gold
to consolidate
-Looking for price to retest
4hr structure high & low
- Potential BUY/SELL if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3310, 3360
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Analysis of the latest gold trend next week:
Analysis of gold news: Friday (July 4) coincided with the US Independence Day holiday, and gold prices were in a narrow range of fluctuations. Strong employment data not only pushed up the US dollar and US bond yields, but also significantly weakened the market's expectations of the Federal Reserve's early rate cuts, which greatly reduced the attractiveness of gold. At the same time, the US Congress passed the Trump administration's massive tax cut and spending bill, further injecting complex variables into the economy. There will be no key data to watch today. Due to the US Independence Day, all markets will close early, which will limit the fluctuation range of gold prices.
Key technical signals:
Daily level:
Range fluctuations: Gold prices repeatedly tested in the 3320-3360 range, the Bollinger band narrowed, and the MACD kinetic energy column shrank, indicating that the market was in a wait-and-see mood.
Key support/resistance:
Support: 3320 (5-day moving average), 3300 (psychological barrier + Bollinger lower track).
Resistance: 3350-3360 (non-agricultural starting point + daily middle track).
4-hour level:
Short-term bottoming signs: After the non-agricultural data, the gold price fell to 3322 and then rebounded, forming a double bottom prototype, but it needs to break through 3350 to confirm the reversal.
RSI is neutral (around 50) and may maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.
2. Next week's market deduction
1. Baseline scenario (oscillation and consolidation, 60% probability)
Trend: The gold price fluctuates in the 3320-3360 range, waiting for CPI data to guide the direction.
Operation strategy:
Short-term high-sell and low-buy:
Long order: Long at around 3320-3325, stop loss 3305, target 3350.
Short order: Short at 3350-3360 under pressure, stop loss 3370, target 3320.
2. Bullish breakthrough scenario (30% probability, CPI data required)
Trigger conditions: CPI is lower than expected (such as below 3.2%), the market re-bets on interest rate cuts, and the US dollar weakens.
Trend: After breaking through 3360, it may test 3380 (200-day moving average) or even 3400.
Operation strategy:
Break through and chase long: Follow up after stabilizing 3360, target 3380-3400.
3. Bearish breakout scenario (10% probability, need continued strength of the US dollar)
Trigger conditions: CPI is stronger than expected (such as more than 3.5%), and the Fed's hawkish remarks suppress expectations of rate cuts.
Trend: After breaking below 3300, it may test 3260 (June low).
Operation strategy:
Break through and follow short: After breaking below 3300, chase short, target 3260.
III. Trading strategy and risk management
Short-term trading (suitable for intraday positions)
Shock strategy: Buy high and sell low in the range of 3320-3360, with strict stop loss (10$-15$).
Breakout strategy: Wait for CPI data and follow the trend. If it breaks through 3360, chase longs or if it falls below 3300, follow shorts.
Mid-term layout (pay attention to the trend after CPI)
If CPI is positive: set up long orders at 3330-3340, with a target of 3400.
If CPI is negative: set up short orders at 3350-3360, with a target of 3260.
Risk warning
Liquidity risk: Speech by Fed officials (such as Powell) may trigger short-term sharp fluctuations.
Geopolitical risk: Sudden conflicts or banking crises may trigger safe-haven buying, breaking the technical logic.
4. Summary and key points
Core range: 3320-3360 (maintain the idea of oscillation before breaking through).
Long-short watershed:
Breaking through 3360 → opening up space to 3400.
Breaking through 3300 → opening a downward trend to 3260.
GOLDAlthough there is a bearish divergence visible on the weekly timeframe (which often signals a possible slowdown or reversal in the trend) the daily timeframe shows that gold has broken out of a bullish flag pattern a continuation pattern that usually leads to further upside.
This breakout suggests that, despite the divergence gold still has room to move higher in the short term. Based on this pattern it could rise up to around 38000 before it begins a retracement (a temporary pullback). After the retracement the overall upward trend may resume, especially if strong support levels hold.