GOLD1. Gold and 10-Year Bond Yield
Gold and 10-year Treasury yields generally exhibit a strong inverse correlation. When bond yields rise, gold prices tend to fall, and vice versa.
This is primarily because higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not pay interest or dividends. Investors prefer bonds when yields rise, reducing gold demand.
However, the key driver for gold is real interest rates (nominal yield minus inflation). Even if nominal yields rise, if inflation rises faster, real yields can remain low or negative, which supports gold prices.
Historical data shows gold often rises during periods of falling real yields, even if nominal yields fluctuate. For example, gold surged in the 1970s despite rising nominal rates due to high inflation and negative real yields.
2. Gold and Dollar Index (DXY)
Gold and the US dollar index (DXY) usually have an inverse relationship.
A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand and lowering prices. Conversely, a weaker dollar supports gold by making it cheaper internationally.
However, during times of geopolitical uncertainty or market stress, both gold and the dollar can rise together as safe havens.
3. Interest Rates and Gold
Central bank interest rates influence bond yields and the dollar, indirectly affecting gold.
Rising interest rates tend to push bond yields higher and strengthen the dollar, both of which typically pressure gold prices.
Conversely, expectations of rate cuts or dovish monetary policy lower yields and weaken the dollar, supporting gold.
The real interest rate is the most important factor: low or negative real rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, boosting its appeal.
4. Summary of Interactions
Factor Relationship with Gold Explanation
10-Year Bond Yield Inverse Higher yields raise opportunity cost, reducing gold demand
Real Interest Rate Inverse Negative or low real rates support gold
Dollar Index (DXY) Inverse Strong dollar makes gold more expensive globally
Nominal Interest Rate Inverse Higher rates strengthen dollar and yields, pressuring gold
Conclusion
Gold prices are strongly influenced by the interplay of real interest rates, bond yields, and the US dollar. Rising nominal yields and a strong dollar generally weigh on gold, but if inflation outpaces yields, resulting in low or negative real rates, gold remains attractive as a hedge. This dynamic explains gold’s resilience despite fluctuating bond yields and dollar strength in 2025.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a buying opportunity around 3,330 zone, Gold was trading an a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 3,330 support and resistance zone.
Trade safe, Joe.
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Great way to wrap up the week! We saw quite a bit of sideways ranging movement between our levels, and our 1H chart idea played out nicely throughout the week, and now we end the week with our 4H chart update.
As anticipated, the 4H chart followed through perfectly with our bearish target at 3312 hit first, followed by EMA5 cross and lock, which opened the Retracement Range. This range was reached with precision, and the absence of any further cross and lock confirmed strong support, leading to a bounce back to 3312, just as we expected in our buy the dip strategy.
We’ll be back on Sunday with our multi-timeframe analysis and trading plans for the week ahead. Thanks again for all your likes, comments, and follows.
Wishing you all a fantastic weekend!!
MR GOLD
Today's gold price: 3330-3340 continue to go longToday's gold price: 3330-3340 continue to go long
Market core driving logic
Risk aversion continues
US steel tariffs rise from 25% to 50%, trade frictions heat up
Ukraine-Russia negotiations break down, geopolitical risks remain
The widening fiscal deficit has caused concerns about the credit of the US dollar
Federal Reserve policy supports gold prices
Officials such as Waller and Goolsbee have clearly released signals of two interest rate cuts this year
New tariffs push up inflation, but do not affect the path of interest rate cuts (policy focus shifts to economic stability)
Technical pattern highlights (4-hour cycle)
The bullish structure is not broken: the intraday correction did not fall below the previous high of 3325, and it is still a normal correction after the breakthrough
Support concentration area: 3335--3345 (previous high conversion support)
Upper target:
① 3380 (Asian session high) → ② 3392 (historical high) → ③ 3400 (psychological barrier + upper channel track)
📌Note: If the 3330-3335 support is not reached before the US market, the 3350 short-term stabilization signal can be observed.
Operation strategy after correction
1. Long position layout
Entry range: 3330-3335 (main plan) or 3350 rapid stabilization (alternative plan)
Stop loss: below 3322 (3-5 US dollars lower than the previous high)
Target ladder:
→ First stop profit: 3370
→ Second stop profit: 3392-3400
Position conditions: The price continues to stand above 3340, and the MACD golden cross rises with large volume
2. Breakout and rising plan
If the price breaks through 3400 strongly, it will fall back to 3390 and chase long with a light position, stop loss 3380, and target 3420-3435
Risk warning
Event risk
Speech by Fed officials (pay attention to the revision of interest rate cut expectations)
The specific list of new US tariffs on China is announced (if announced) (exceeding expectations or causing fluctuations)
Operation principle: The current market risk aversion sentiment + easing expectations have not changed, so buy low and avoid rushing to pull back against the trend. Focus on the flow of funds during the US trading session
GOLD (XAUUSD) 1H Chart | Bullish Breakout Idea With Key Zones > "Gold is showing strong bullish structure on the 1H timeframe. Price is approaching key breakout zones with momentum building. This idea highlights critical support/resistance levels and potential breakout targets. Watch for confirmation before entry."
This is just idea not a financial advice !
Gold (XAUUSD) Elliott Wave Outlook: Next Bullish Surge UnderwayGold (XAUUSD) has displayed a strong bullish trend since establishing a low on May 15, 2025, forming a sequence of higher highs that signals further upside potential. The rally from the May 15 low unfolded in a clear five-wave Elliott Wave structure, completing wave 1 at $3365.93. The initial advance, wave ((i)), peaked at $3252.05, followed by a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) to $3153.47. The subsequent rally in wave ((iii)) reached $3345.40, with a minor dip in wave ((iv)) to $3278.79. A final leg, wave ((v)), concluded wave 1 at $3365.93.
Following the completion of wave 1, a corrective wave 2 developed as a double three Elliott Wave structure. From the wave 1 high, wave ((w)) declined to $3284.40, followed by a recovery in wave ((x)) to $3325.51. The subsequent decline in wave ((y)) bottomed at $3245.20, marking the end of wave 2. Gold then resumed its upward trajectory, initiating wave 3. Within this wave, wave ((i)) peaked at $3331.11, and a pullback in wave ((ii)) found support at $3271.09. The metal has since broken above the previous wave 1 high of $3365.93, confirming the start of wave ((iii)) and signaling further upside.
In the near term, as long as the pivot low at $3246 remains intact, pullbacks are expected to attract buyers in a 3, 7, or 11-swing corrective structure, supporting additional gains. Traders should monitor these levels for potential buying opportunities, with the bullish trend likely to persist as long as key support holds.
XAUUSD Daily Sniper Plan — Monday, June 2, 2025“Equilibrium Warzone: Will Bears Break Structure or Bulls Reclaim Premium?”
👋 Welcome to the new week, traders. The battlefield is balanced — here’s how we dominate it.
Gold is trading just above equilibrium (3289–3290) after a messy week of premium traps, CHoCHs, and weak bullish continuations. The market has printed clear Lower Highs (LHs) across H1/M15 and failed to reclaim the supply at 3302–3308.
We are now caught in a compression box between M15 OB resistance and discount inefficiency, with liquidity stacked below.
🔹 Current Bias
🎯 Neutral-to-bearish under 3308
🔻 CHoCH + LH formed on both M15 and H1
🧠 Monday will reveal if we break 3270 floor or induce a final trap into premium
🔹 Intraday Structural Zones (Sniper Refined)
🔺 Resistance Zones Above Price
Zone Name Price Range Confluence
🔺 First OB Reaction 3296 – 3302 M15 OB + H1 rejection wick — soft inducement
🔺 Final LH Trap 3308 – 3322 Last Lower High + FVG fill + premium supply
🔺 Premium Killzone 3335 – 3355 Upper trap + internal liquidity — only visited if bulls reclaim structure
🔻 Support Zones Below Price
Zone Name Price Range Confluence
🔻 EQ Reaction Floor 3274 – 3262 Current support shelf + equilibrium wick lows
🔻 First Breakdown Zone 3248 – 3228 BOS origin + M15 CHoCH + clean liquidity stack
🔵 Swing Reentry Zone 3196 – 3172 M15 demand block + clean OB + deep FVG fill
⚫ Final HTF Demand 3150 – 3130 May HL + strong structure base — ultimate reversal point if dumped
🔹 Execution Plan for Monday
✅ Plan A — Sell Setup (Most Probable)
If price taps 3296–3302 early and rejects → short toward 3262
Confirm with M15 CHoCH + bearish PA
Target 3248 → 3228
Hold partials for extension into 3196 if momentum is clean
🔁 Plan B — Inducement Trap Then Drop
Spike into 3308–3322 → watch for LH rejection or FVG sweep
Sell setup becomes valid only if M15 fails to break structure up
Target remains same: 3262 → 3228
🛑 Invalid Buy Conditions
❌ No buys valid inside 3302–3322 → this is smart money trap zone
✅ Buy only valid if:
Deep discount reaction at 3196–3172, OR
Clean break + BOS above 3322, then hold → reentry toward 3355
📊 EMA Structure (5/21/50/100/200)
❌ EMA5 is under 21 and 50 → bearish
⚠️ Price is hugging EMA100 from below
✅ EMA200 (H1) sits at ~3172 → aligns with deep demand zone
Momentum favors sellers if 3308 holds
🔚 Final Thoughts — Battlefield Summary
Gold is stuck in range-to-distribution structure after failing to reclaim premium. With CHoCHs on all major intraday timeframes, momentum is now tilting bearish. The setup is clean: wait for the retest of structure above, then strike into demand zones where clean inefficiencies remain.
Don’t chase fake breakouts. Let price show its hand near OBs and EQ edges — and execute with clarity.
💬 If You Found This Valuable:
📌 Follow GoldFxMinds for live sniper plans, real zone maps, and execution clarity
💡 Smash a LIKE if you’re ready to wait, not chase
👇 Comment your take: Do we drop to 3228 first — or induce 3315 before the flush?
Trade sharp. Trade with structure.
— GoldFxMinds
Let’s analyze the gold (XAU/USD) chart from technicalLet’s analyze the gold (XAU/USD) chart from technical, fundamental, sentiment, and social media perspectives as of June 2, 2025, at 10:09 PM CEST. I’ll incorporate the latest available X posts (from May 23–31, 2025) for the social media sentiment analysis, though they are slightly outdated. I’ll also update the analysis with current market conditions where possible.
1. Technical Analysis
The chart is a 4-hour candlestick chart of gold from TradingView:
Trend Overview: Gold has been volatile. It rose from around $3,122 in mid-April to a peak of $3,480 in early May, then corrected sharply to $3,127 by late May. Currently, it’s recovering, trading at $3,381.72.
Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The $3,122–$3,127 zone is a strong support (price bounced multiple times here).
Resistance: The $3,480–$3,483 zone is a key resistance (previous high).
Breakouts and Patterns: Recently, gold broke out of a consolidation range ($3,127–$3,348) and moved up to $3,381. This suggests potential for further upside, but confirmation above $3,483 is needed.
Volume and Indicators:
Volume (on the right) increased during the recent upmove, indicating strong buying pressure.
Indicators like RSI or MACD aren’t visible, but given the sharp rise, RSI might be in overbought territory (above 70).
Short-Term Outlook: If gold holds above $3,348, it could test $3,483. A break above $3,483 might target $3,500. However, a drop below $3,348 could lead to a retest of $3,127.
2. Fundamental Analysis
Fundamental factors driving gold prices include:
Interest Rates and Monetary Policy: Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates. If the Federal Reserve has cut rates in 2025 (due to lower inflation or economic slowdown), this could support gold’s rise. Conversely, high rates would pressure gold downward.
US Dollar Strength (DXY): Gold and the dollar are inversely correlated. A weaker dollar (due to dovish Fed policies or geopolitical tensions) could explain gold’s rise.
Inflation and Economic Uncertainty: Gold is a safe-haven asset. High global inflation, geopolitical tensions (e.g., Middle East or Ukraine), or financial crises could drive demand.
Physical Demand: Demand from major markets like India and China (e.g., during wedding seasons) can push prices up.
Chart Data Insight: The current price of $3,381 suggests strong demand, possibly driven by geopolitical tensions or a weaker dollar.
3. Sentiment Analysis
Sentiment analysis focuses on trader behavior and market psychology:
Trader Behavior: The bid ($3,381.75) and ask ($3,381.87) show a tight spread (less than $1), indicating high liquidity and trader interest in gold.
Buying/Selling Pressure: High volume during the recent upmove suggests bullish sentiment. Traders likely expect the uptrend to continue.
Fear and Greed Index: If the Fear & Greed Index is high (greed dominant), traders might shift to riskier assets, avoiding gold. However, the price increase suggests fear (safe-haven demand) is dominant.
4. Social Media Sentiment (Updated as of June 2, 2025)
I’ll analyze the latest X posts (May 23–31, 2025) to gauge social media sentiment. Since these posts are slightly outdated, I’ll extrapolate based on the current price action.
Overall Sentiment:
On May 23 and 25, @Talaforoosh noted that the gold market was “asleep,” with lower trading volumes compared to earlier in the year. This indicates a cautious sentiment among traders.
On May 28, @IRNA_1313 reported a slight increase in gold to $3,319, but with minimal volatility, suggesting a stable but stagnant market at that time.
On May 29, @TgjuSocialMedia provided a technical analysis, noting gold was in a critical range of $3,200–$3,255, with negative RSI and MACD signals pointing to selling pressure. This reflects a bearish sentiment during that period.
Key Influencing Factors:
Iran-US negotiations were a major focus. @TgjuSocialMedia (May 29 and 31) highlighted that the outcome of these talks could dictate gold’s direction. A breakdown in talks could lead to a bullish scenario for gold, while an agreement might trigger a bearish move.
@Talaforoosh (May 23) predicted that negotiation outcomes could either push gold to new highs or cause a sharp drop (to the 26 million IRR range for domestic gold in Iran), describing the market as “crazy.” This reflects expectations of high volatility.
Technical Sentiment on X:
Technical analyses on X (e.g., @TgjuSocialMedia on May 28) leaned bearish, noting a drop to $3,304 and a key support at risk. This suggests traders on X were more inclined toward a correction at that time.
Current Sentiment (Extrapolated):
The X posts from late May show caution and bearish sentiment, likely due to uncertainty around Iran-US negotiations. However, the chart shows gold has since risen to $3,381.72 as of June 2, a significant recovery from the $3,127 low. This suggests that sentiment has likely shifted to bullish in the past few days, possibly due to favorable news (e.g., stalled negotiations or new geopolitical tensions) or a weaker dollar.
Final Conclusion and Outlook
Technical: Gold has short-term upside potential to $3,483 if it holds above $3,348. A break above $3,483 could target $3,500. However, a drop below $3,348 might lead to a retest of $3,127.
Fundamental: A weaker dollar, high inflation, or geopolitical tensions (e.g., stalled Iran-US talks) could be driving the price increase.
Sentiment: High trading volume during the recent upmove indicates bullish market sentiment.
Social Media: X posts from late May showed caution and bearish sentiment due to negotiation uncertainties. However, the price increase to $3,381 by June 2 suggests sentiment has likely turned bullish in the past few days, though I’d need more recent X data to confirm.
Overall Forecast: In the short term, gold could reach $3,483, but watch the $3,348 level closely. In the longer term, if fundamental drivers like geopolitical tensions or a weaker dollar persist, gold might climb to $3,500 or higher.
If you’d like a deeper dive into more recent social media sentiment, I can search for fresher X posts. Would you like me to do that?
Why XAUUSD is 50/50XAUUSD created a new LH and didn't want to continue last week's demand. However, it also created a new HL. Who takes precedence in this scenario? The HL since it's an overall Up Trend. It might consolidate in the next few days and the 4th of June will be a good indicator if it break to the upside or continue to drop.
XAUUSD Critical Lower Highs break-out just happened.Gold (XAUUSD) broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that originated from the April 22 All Time High (ATH) and has basically re-established the long-term bullish trend and confirmed the bullish break-out.
The extension can go as high as 3700, which represents a +18.37% rise from the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) bottom. That is how much the last 1D MA50 (near) test increased (April 07). A Higher Lows trend-line (dashed) may potentially support this uptrend all the way before the next correction.
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GOLD Price Analysis: Key Insights for Next Week Trading DecisionIn this video, we dissect how gold traded last week (May 26–30), why the price hovered near the top of a descending channel, and what’s driving market indecision. From geopolitical tensions to Federal Reserve interest rate uncertainty, we connect the dots between fundamentals and technical structure, enabling you to make better-informed trading decisions.
📅 Key Events to Watch This Week:
✅ISM Manufacturing PMI
✅ADP Employment Change
✅ISM Services PMI
✅Average Hourly Earnings
✅Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
🎯 In this analysis, I walk you through:
🔸My technical blueprint (key zones for buyers & sellers)
🔸My bullish and bearish scenarios based on the structure on the chart
🔔 Don’t forget to like the video in support of my work.
Disclaimer:
Based on experience and what I see on the charts, this is my take. It’s not financial advice—always do your research and consult a licensed advisor before trading.
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #GoldPriceForecast #GoldTrading #ForexAnalysis #MarketOutlook #NFP #FOMC #TechnicalAnalysis #FundamentalAnalysis #GoldBulls #GoldBears #TradingStrategy #Darcsherry #XAUUSDAnalysis #GoldOutlook #GoldPricePrediction
XAU/USD Buy Setup Explanation (Using Fibonacci Levels)This chart presents a bullish trading setup on gold (XAU/USD) based on a Fibonacci retracement strategy. It suggests a buy opportunity after a pullback.
✅ Fibonacci Levels:
> 0.0% (Top): $3,331 – recent swing high (used as reference)
> 23.6%: $3,312 – minor resistance zone
> 38.2%: $3,297 – initial pullback area
> 50.0%: $3,290 – psychological mid-level
> 61.8% (Golden Ratio): $3,280 – key Fibonacci support
> 78.6%: $3,266 – deeper retracement support
> 100% (Bottom): $3,249 – recent swing low
🟪 Buy Zone (Between 50% and 61.8%):
The marked BUY ZONE is between $3,290 and $3,280, aligning with the Fibonacci golden pocket.
This is a high-probability reversal area, as it combines:
Strong Fibonacci confluence (50%–61.8%)
Prior price reaction zones (structure-based support)
: TP1: $3,320 – aligns with previous structure zone and 23.6% retracement.
: Final Target: $3,350 – a retest of the major resistance and previous high.
📌 Conclusion:
This is a classic Fibonacci retracement long setup:
Wait for a bullish reversal pattern (e.g., pin bar, engulfing) in the buy zone.
As long as the price holds above $3,266, the bullish structure remains valid.
Ideal for swing traders looking to catch a bounce off the golden ratio support.
"Demand Zone Play – Targeting Fresh Highs!"Clean Buy Setup | Reaction in Demand Zone
- Price has touched a well-defined demand zone.
- Confirmed bullish reaction with good wick rejections.
- Placed entry just above the zone, stop loss below structural low.
- Targeting more liquidity zones as TP1 and TP2.
Entry: 3356.50
SL: 3344.50
TP1: 3367.20
TP2: 3374.97
This concept draws on a blend of Smart Money Ideas and Demand/Supply Zones
XAUUSD: Analysis and Strategy on June 2Technical analysis of gold
Daily chart resistance 3412, support below 3284
Four-hour chart resistance 3400, support below 3322
One-hour chart resistance 3360, support below 3322
Analysis of gold news: Gold prices fell last Friday and the US dollar rose. The market digested the latest news on tariff developments, and a weaker inflation report kept hopes of a US interest rate cut alive. After the federal appeals court temporarily restored Trump's tariffs on Thursday, tariffs may once again influence the market this week. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also give an opening speech at an event, his first speech since meeting with Trump last week. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials spoke this week. Gold prices may continue to test the middle track of the Bollinger Band near 3300 this week. If geopolitical tensions ease, it is expected to test near 3250.
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, the support below focuses on the 3322 level of the four-hour level, and the pressure above focuses on the suppression near the 3412 level of the daily level. The short-term long and short strength dividing line is 3250. If the daily level stabilizes above this position, continue to enter with the trend.
Buy: 3322near SL: 3317
Buy: 3350near SL: 3345
Is Gold Bullish ? or Bearish ? Are you going to buy Gold ? hold on then because the chart of 4-hour telling us a story of buy and sell. Market is in consolidation after a strong bullish move and trying to take below liquidity of major support 3040 – 3080 and i believe so this going to happen soon , further you can checkout the chart story and tell me what do you think ?
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone,
Please see update on our 1H chart route map from yesterday.
Another great day on the charts with our analysis playing out like we said.
Yesterday we stated; no EMA5 lock above 3317, forcing a rejection back to the retracement range.
We then stated that we are expecting continued reactions within this retracement range, inline with our plans to buy dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels help us track downward movements and catch bounce setups.
- This played out perfectly with the reaction from the retracement range into 3317. We will now look for a lock above this level for a continuation or failure to lock will follow with a rejection back into the lower Goldturns for support and bounce.
We'll continue to buy dips using our key support levels, targeting 20 to 40 pip moves. As always, each level structure provides consistent bounce zones, offering great opportunities for both entry and exit. If you backtest the levels we’ve shared every week over the past 24 months, you’ll see how effectively they work with or against short to mid term swings and trends.
Remember:
Swing ranges yield bigger bounces than weighted levels — that’s the key difference.
BULLISH TARGET
3389
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3389 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS
3428
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3428 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3478
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3478 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET
3517
BEARISH TARGETS
3352 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3352 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3317 - DONE
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3317 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3282
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3282 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET
3233
EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3233 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE
3185
3146
As always, we’ll keep you all updated with real time analysis and management of active setups throughout the week. Thank you for your continued support, your likes, comments, and follows mean a lot!
Mr Gold
GoldViewFX