GOLD (XAU/USD, 4H) updateOn the 4-hour chart, GOLD has broken below the lower boundary of a pennant pattern on increasing volume, signaling potential for continued downside. Despite this, the asset remains within the confines of a bullish megaphone structure, whose boundaries are still intact. The EMA indicators (20/50/100/200) are aligned in a bearish sequence, exerting downward pressure. The price is consolidating below the $3295 level and is approaching key demand zones.
Near-Term Downside Targets:
- $3177 — Intermediate demand zone
- $3063 — Major support level
Technical Highlights:
- Breakdown from bearish pennant confirmed by volume
- Price action continues within the bullish megaphone pattern
- EMA 20/50/100/200 positioned above price, indicating overhead resistance
- Volume increases observed during downward moves
- Key buyer interest zone: $3060–$3080
- Resistance zone: $3295–$3305
Following the breakdown from the consolidation pattern, gold is exhibiting a downward trajectory targeting support zones at $3177 and $3063. The bearish scenario is technically confirmed as long as the price remains below $3295. However, the movement within the bullish megaphone structure warrants close monitoring for potential shifts in momentum.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold weekly chart with buy and sell levelsFrom the 4H chart you posted, here's a quick breakdown first:
Trend: We're seeing bearish pressure overall after a strong bullish leg. The price is under important retracement levels (0.382, 0.5, 0.618 Fib retracements).
Key Levels:
Strong resistance zone at 3340-3352 (aligned with Weekly Highs, Daily Highs, and a Supply Zone).
Immediate support around 3290 and 3228 (Weekly Open and previous price clusters).
Volume Delta: -3.72% macro (bearish), showing sellers have the upper hand currently.
Important Price Zones:
Sell zone: 3328-3340
Buy zone: 3228-3206
Scalping Strategy on 15-Minute (assuming London / NY crossover sessions):
Bias: Slightly bearish unless strong bullish reversal signals appear.
Ideal sessions: London Open (7-9 AM GMT) and NY Crossover (12-3 PM GMT).
Possible Scalping Setups
1. Sell Setup:
Trigger: If price retraces back up to 3328-3337 zone during London open or NY crossover and shows rejection (pin bars, engulfing patterns on 15M).
Entry: Short at around 3330-3335.
SL: Above 3345.
TP1: 3308 (Sell level on chart).
TP2: 3290.
Bonus TP: 3270 if momentum strong.
2. Buy Setup:
Trigger: If price dips into 3228-3206 (near Weekly Open) and shows bullish reaction (hammer, bullish engulfing).
Entry: Long between 3220-3230.
SL: Below 3200.
TP1: 3254.
TP2: 3270.
Bonus TP: 3290 if NY session volume kicks in.
Has Gold's Rally Ended?In 2025, gold experienced an unprecedented surge, marking its best quarterly performance in history with gains exceeding 17% in Q1. The second quarter of 2025 began with further gains, reaching a new all-time high at $3,500.110 per ounce.
Several economic and political factors contributed to the rise in global demand for gold as a safe haven asset amid fears of a potential economic recession, inflation, and a looming trade war.
The recent pullback in gold prices has been somewhat driven by optimistic expectations regarding U.S.-China negotiations and the U.S. president's decision to reduce some tariffs, including those on automobiles.
Technical Outlook for Gold:
The latest declines in gold prices have brought some bearish signals, suggesting a shift from an uptrend to a downtrend. After rising approximately 14%, gold pulled back and broke below its most recent higher low, closing a daily candle below the $3,260.65 level, an indication of a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish.
However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has not yet broken below the 50 mark, despite the recent price drop, which maintains the possibility for a rebound and suggests that the market hasn't entered full bearish momentum.
The $3,436.042 level serves as a key resistance area where selling pressure may emerge, potentially pushing prices down to target $3,265.100 as the first support level.
On the other hand, if the price breaks above $3,500.110 and posts a daily close above it, the bearish scenario would be invalidated.
From a fundamental perspective, gold’s continued decline is closely tied to developments in U.S.-China trade talks. Any positive signs of reaching an agreement or further tariff reductions could weigh negatively on gold prices.
Gold Trade Plan 02/05/2025-05/05/2025Dear Traders,
The descending channel is working precisely. After hitting the middle of the channel, the price started to drop. I expect another low below 3200, followed by a rise toward around $3400.
if you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza!
Gold trend layout in the evening after the release of NFP data🗞News side:
1. Pay attention to the recent trade situation and news about the Fed's interest rate cuts
2. Be wary of DXY trends
3. The situation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the follow-up events of the India-Pakistan conflict
📈Technical aspects:
The short orders in hand have already been profitable, and gold is now back near 3250, while the US dollar index has once again fallen by 100, reaching around 99.6, and the 1H moving average is currently showing signs of turning upward. The upper and lower shadow lines of the 1H K-line closing look like cross stars of equal length, which means that things may go wrong, and gold may rebound upwards in the short term. We can still focus on the resistance of 3260-3270 above, and further focus on the first-line resistance of 3280-3286, while the bottom has never been able to effectively break through the first-line support of 3240. If this week closes at 3240, then the market outlook next week will be conducive to long trading.
Intraday operation suggestions
🎁SELL 3260-3270
🎁TP 3245-3240
🎁BUY 3230-3240
🎁TP 3260-3270
If you agree with this point of view, or you have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD
Gold Evening Star on WeeklyGold is working on its second consecutive red week which would be the first such occurrence in 2025. Interestingly, gold had only posted two red weeks in the prior 16, until the $3500 level came into play.
That high in gold syncs with a long-term spot of support in the US Dollar, and going into next week's FOMC meeting the two scenarios appear linked as a dovish Fed would likely be needed if we are to see another $3500 test, much less a break.
For now, support is at the psychological level of $3200 and for next week, that becomes lower-high resistance potential for breakdown scenarios. - js
XAUUSD: 1/5 Today's Market Analysis and StrategyTechnical analysis of gold
Daily chart resistance 3283, support below 3167
Four-line chart resistance 3283, support below 3200
One-hour chart resistance 3243, support below 3200
Gold operation suggestions: From the current trend analysis, continue to pay attention to the short-term suppression of the 3250-65 area above, and continue to be bearish if it rebounds during the day. The support below is around the 3200 integer mark and 3167. The short-term long-short conversion position is in the 3260~3265 area. You can buy after it stabilizes.
Sell: 3283near SL: 3287
Sell: 3243near SL: 3248
Sell: 3200near SL: 3205
GOLD - reached at resistance zone ? What's next??#GOLD.. market perfectly bounced back from our supporting area as we discussed in our last idea.
Now market just reached at his r distance region.
From 3262 to 3269-70
Keep close the area and if market holds that in that case we can expect a drop from here.
Good luck
Trade wisely
DeGRAM | GOLD Broke the Rising Channel📊 Technical Analysis
● Break below the rising channel and $3 290 support; failed retest inside the $3 320-3 260 supply creates a descending structure—targets sit at $3 200, then $3 000.
● 4-hour RSI bearish divergence and a sequence of lower highs confirm momentum has flipped to the downside.
💡 Fundamental Analysis
● Dollar Index rebounds (+0.27 %) on auto-tariff-relief headlines, boosting risk appetite and trimming haven demand.
● Yahoo Finance reports gold sliding as a stronger USD and tariff reprieve trigger profit-taking.
✨ Summary
Channel break + USD strength favour a short XAU/USD view: objectives $3 200 → $3 000; invalidation above $3 360.
-------------------
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Analysis of gold market trend in the future.Gold continued to rebound at the opening, and the daily line has gone down for three consecutive days. The probability of correction is relatively high, and the decline is bound to be not that large. The position of choosing short positions cannot be too low, and the support below is 3230-3227! According to the ADP data, it is likely to be bullish for gold. Under the influence of the tariff war, the employment data may not be too good, and the economic situation will only get worse. There is no doubt about this. Comprehensive analysis, I think the probability of big non-agricultural and unemployment rate bullish is relatively high. Therefore, shorting is limited to intraday, and the focus is on the bottoming out and rebound cycle.
THE KOG REPORT THE KOG REPORT:
In last week’s KOG Report we said we would be looking for the price to continue upside into the region given which gave us a fantastic capture for the start of the week. We then had to adapt as the bias level and targets on the red box indi changed suggesting more upside. We continued to complete all our bias above targets as well as Excalibur and LiTE giving us 100% again for the week!
It wasn’t easy as it sounds, it took a lot of work and constant monitoring but the pip capture on gold was out of this world and well worth it!
So, what can we expect from the week ahead?
For this week we seem to be creating a DB on the 4hr chart which entails caution. We have resistance just above at the 3330-35 with extension 3240-45 region which if attacked and rejected in the early session could give the potential short trade into the support level 3295-8 which is the key level that needs to break for us to go lower.
There is a lot of liquidity above, especially those who like us shorted and held trades from the 3450 levels so the bias this week changes to the 3350-55 level, break above and we will confirm the move higher, otherwise, our thoughts are a test is likely on the high but we would like to get that long from lower to again create a new ATH.
Let’s see how we open, these markets need to be adapted to every day so making long terms plans as intra-day traders isn’t on our agenda at the moment. The market is giving short term, so why not take advantage of the conditions while they last.
Potential for gaps on open so please be careful, we’re on red boxes and extreme levels only.
RED BOXES INDI LEVELS:
Break above 3320 for 3327, 3330, 3335, 3345, 3347 and above that 3362 in extension of the move
Break below 3310, for 3306, 3297, 3295, 3280, 3266 and 3255 in extension of the move
Even the scalping levels are HUGE!
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
“Gold Poised for a Big Move Ahead of NFP – Reversal or BreakdownGold (XAU/USD) is approaching a major decision zone just before the highly anticipated NFP release. Price is reacting from a strong demand area (3,240–3,200), hinting at potential upside if momentum builds. A break above the descending trendline could fuel a rally toward 3,320 and 3,480.
However, a negative reaction to NFP might push gold down to test the deeper 3,168–3,134 support zone before bouncing.
This setup aligns perfectly with high-impact news – Follow for live updates and smart trade ideas during NFP!
Gold XAUUSD Possible Move 01-02 May 2025📉 Gold Technical Outlook
Gold has decisively broken a key support zone between $3,268–$3,274, now trading near the $3,210-20 level. This move comes amid a clear downtrend structure, with price action respecting a well-defined descending trendline.
🔍 Current Technical Context:
Trend: Bearish
Support Turned Resistance: $3,268–$3,274
Immediate Support: $3,210–$3,220
Resistance: Trendline and previous support zone near $3,270
A retest of the broken support zone could offer a high-risk, high-reward shorting opportunity, especially if price fails to reclaim it. However, a clean break below the $3,210–$3,220 support could trigger another aggressive selloff, with downside targets potentially extending below $3,160.
📊 Key Drivers (Geopolitical/Fundamentals)
US Dollar Strength: The USD remains firm despite mixed economic data, applying pressure on gold prices.
Geopolitical Easing: Reduced US-China tensions are weighing on safe-haven flows, as US approaches China for talks on tariffs.
Russia-Ukarine: Russia declaring cease-fire for a week.
Technical Pullback: Gold is correcting after a strong rejection from the $3,500 zone.
Profit-Taking: Recent rejection led to bearish closes as traders locked in gains.
Liquidity Considerations: With May 1 being a public holiday in many regions, lower liquidity could amplify volatility.
Event Risk Ahead: Caution prevails ahead of key macro events including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and the FOMC statement.
📝 Strategy Notes:
Sell-on-Rally Zone: $3,268–$3,274 (if price retests and rejects)
Bearish Continuation Trigger: Break and close below $3,210
Invalidation for Bears: Sustained reclaim of $3,274 and a break above the trendline
Stay nimble and monitor for reactions around the highlighted zones as event-driven volatility can cause swift moves.
Gold awaits NFP after serious decline I expectedAs discussed throughout my yesterday's session commentary: "Technical analysis: Gold is being kept below the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance zone of #3,292.80 - #3,300.80 despite the rejection on DX and continuous rise on equities, Gold didn’t manage to prepare the terrain for further the uptrend, according to my Technical estimations. Besides the High Selling Volume and evident Price-action showcasing of Bearish trend switch, #3,262.80 Support I mentioned which was about to be tested was invalidated and naturally Gold is on a decline (as I expected it throughout my recent remarks) and is Technicals what's keeping Gold Lower, relative to circumstances. Regardless of that, the Daily chart’s Support (Medium-term) is Trading just few points below, at #3,200.80, if broken it can open doors for #3,127.80 extension and Support mark test and is alone a positive development for Sellers ahead of the end of the Trading week."
Technical analysis: Daily chart remains isolated within solid Descending Channel and being Bearish indicates a Short-term Selling opportunity towards #3,200.80 psychological mark if Support gets invalidated and NFP delivers upside surprise (what I indeed expect). Keep an eye on the DX especially when the U.S. session opens (Bullish Gap fill) throughout today’s session in order to get more information and pointers of the Intra-day direction. Gold got rejected at #3,200.80 - #3,227.80 Medium-term Support zone (many rejections on current pressure point) and since the pullback wasn’t Bought back above the Hourly 1 chart’s Buying accumulation zone, current Price-action points that the Selling sentiment remains unchanged as this is just one of early Trading weeks in May. That keeps the Hourly 4 chart’s Descending Channel valid (already converted to a Bearish Flag / messenger of Selling continuation ahead), with #3,262.80 configuration currently representing it’s local Lower High’s Upper zone).
Gold on Edge – Will NFP Trigger the Next Big Move?🚨 Gold at a Crossroads – Will NFP & White House Comments Trigger a Volatility Spike? ⚡
🧭 Macro Overview
Gold enters the US session with a mild rebound after a sharp selloff, following its historic climb to $3,500/oz. The recent drop was driven less by fundamentals and more by aggressive profit-taking, especially from retail flows in Asia, notably China.
Rather than a trend reversal, this correction looks like a healthy technical reset, just ahead of two major catalysts:
1️⃣ US Non-Farm Payrolls (May edition)
2️⃣ White House remarks on tariffs and trade strategy
These two factors will likely define gold’s direction heading into next week — either toward deeper support zones or a potential recovery rally into resistance.
📊 DXY & Macro Market Lens
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off its base near 98.xx, currently testing the 100.00 level. Whether the dollar strengthens further depends largely on today’s labour data and fiscal signals from Washington.
Traders should remain tactically neutral, relying on intraday timeframes like H1/H2 and respecting key price structure.
🔺 Key Resistance Levels
3,260
3,275
3,285
3,312
🔻 Key Support Levels
3,244
3,230
3,215
3,200
🎯 Trade Plan – Friday 3rd May, 2025
🔵 BUY ZONE A:
Entry: 3,232 – 3,230
SL: 3,226
TP: 3,236 → 3,240 → 3,244 → 3,248 → 3,252 → 3,256 → 3,260
🔵 BUY ZONE B:
Entry: 3,214 – 3,212
SL: 3,208
TP: 3,218 → 3,222 → 3,226 → 3,230 → 3,235 → 3,240
🔴 SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3,276 – 3,278
SL: 3,282
TP: 3,272 → 3,268 → 3,264 → 3,260 → 3,250
⚠️ Final Notes
Volatility may spike sharply during the NY session as NFP and political news collide.
This is the kind of session where traders can either capitalize massively or get caught offside — stay disciplined.
Avoid emotional entries — let price come to you, wait for confirmation, and stick to your TP/SL.
📣 Conclusion
We’re likely in a calm-before-the-storm scenario. Gold hasn’t made its real move yet — but when it does, it’ll be swift.
Prepare. Execute. Protect your capital.
XAUUSD H4 I Bearish Reversal Based on the H4 chart analysis, we can see that the price is rising toward our sell entry at 3259.47 which is a pullback resistance aligning close to the 38.2% Fibo retracement.
Our take profit will be at 3170.07, a pullback support that aligns close to the 61.8% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss will be placed at 3343.42, an overlap resistance.
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XAUUSD - ANALYSIS👀 Observation:
Hello, everyone! I hope you're doing well. I’d like to share my analysis of XAU-USD (Gold) with you.
Looking at the chart, I see a potential small price pullback towards around 3260. After reaching that level, I expect a further price decrease to 3167.
📉 Expectation:
Bearish Scenario: After the pullback to 3260, a further decrease to 3167 is expected.
💡 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 3260
Support: 3167
💬 What are your thoughts on XAU-USD this week? Let me know in the comments!
Trade safe