Mozafari Nejad ### Multi-Timeframe Analysis: 15min + 30min + 2# XAU/USD | Gold Market Outlook by Mohsen Mozafari Nejad
### Multi-Timeframe Analysis: 15min + 30min + 2h | July 2–3, 2025
---
## 🔍 Technical Overview:
| Timeframe | Structure | Efficiency | Context |
|-----------|-----------|------------|---------|
| 15min | Bullish ✅ | Efficient ✅ | Reverse H&S complete – price entering neckline zone |
| 30min | Bullish ✅ | Inefficient ❌ | Clean BOS – ready for potential continuation |
| 2H | Bullish ✅ | Inefficient ❌ | HL confirmed – clear bullish delivery range ahead |
---
## 🧠 Key Insights:
- **Left Shoulder - Head - Right Shoulder** clearly visible and now validated with neckline break
- Price is reacting from **last TLQ + ILQ zones** with MSU
- Strong **liquidity gap** above 3,380–3,405 likely to be targeted
- **Highs around 3,420–3,440** may act as liquidity magnet if clean break happens
- **BOS and CHoCH** confirmed across all LTFs — strong bullish intent
- Structure remains **bullish** as long as 3,312–3,320 HL holds
---
## 🎯 Price Zones to Watch:
| Zone | Action |
|--------------|----------------|
| 3,335–3,340 | OB Flip Support / Demand (Retest Possible) |
| 3,368–3,375 | Reaction Zone / Short-Term Take Profit |
| 3,404–3,420 | Major Liquidity Above / SH Grab |
| 3,428–3,440+ | Stop-Hunt Potential for Final Exit |
---
## 📌 Trade Scenarios:
### 🟢 Long Setup
- **Entry:** 3,340–3,348 (OB retest or continuation)
- **SL:** below 3,328
- **TP1:** 3,375
- **TP2:** 3,400
- **TP3:** 3,420+
### 🔴 Caution for Short
Only valid if price shows **CHoCH + strong rejection** from above 3,420–3,440.
Otherwise, trend continuation is dominant.
---
## 🧭 Summary:
> Gold continues its bullish structure in all LTFs.
> Reverse H&S has broken neckline cleanly.
> Momentum + inefficiency zones above = clear drive to liquidity.
> Patience is key – reentry on OB retest = high R/R setup.
---
🖋️ Prepared by: **Mohsen Mozafari Nejad**
*Smart Money | Liquidity Zones | Order Blocks | MSU/MSD Framework*
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Gold's Next Week Trend & Trading TipsGold Trend Analysis for Next Week
Fundamental Analysis
Friday (July 4th) marks the U.S. Independence Day holiday, with gold oscillating narrowly near 3333 in early European trading 📊. The metal fell nearly 1% on Thursday (July 3rd) to close at 3325.87, weighed by unexpectedly strong June nonfarm payrolls 💪. This boosted the dollar and Treasury yields, dimming Fed rate-cut hopes and curbing gold’s appeal.
Additionally, the U.S. Congress passed the Trump administration’s major tax cuts and spending bill, adding economic complexity 🔄. No key data is due today; markets will close early for the holiday, limiting volatility. Profit-taking on yesterday’s short positions may halt declines, leaving today’s trend likely range-bound or slightly rebounding 📈.
Technical Analysis
Gold rebounded from lows this week, with three straight bullish daily candles breaking above the middle Bollinger Band, signaling short-term strength 🐂. However, dual bearish triggers (nonfarm data and jobless claims) sparked a pullback Thursday, likely forming a bearish candle with a long lower shadow—a correction after three gains 🔄.
The daily chart shows high-range consolidation, lacking sustained momentum. Dollar volatility has capped gold’s moves, with repeated tests of highs failing to break through and pullbacks lacking downside conviction. The daily Bollinger Band is contracting, with gold swinging between middle and lower bands; 3360 acts as resistance 🛑.
Last night’s nonfarm data caused a nearly $40 drop, but markets stabilized, and gold has recovered half those losses, with bearish momentum ebbing 🐻. A secondary support base formed at 3322, and after overnight consolidation, gold is showing rally signs with higher lows 🔄
Strategy:
🚀 Sell@3355 - 3345
🚀 TP 3335 - 3325 - 3315
🚀 Buy@3290 - 3300
🚀 TP 3310 - 3320 - 3330
Accurate signals are updated every day 📈 If you encounter any problems during trading, these signals can serve as your reliable guide 🧭 Feel free to refer to them! I sincerely hope they'll be of great help to you 🌟 👇
XAUUSD Daily Analysis – Bearish BiasGold tapped a key level at 3,339, sweeping liquidity above before showing signs of exhaustion. A Change of Character (Choch) confirms potential reversal. If price respects this Bearish POI, we could see a drop back to 3,248 support. Watch for a TS (tap and shift) before continuation.
I will update you with trade setup so stay update
#Gold #xauusd #Forex #Dailyanalysis #bias #Goldbias
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Not a bad start to the week with the path working well, we got the swoop we wanted and the opportunity for the long presented itself. We've completed quite a few of the bias targets as well as the red box targets, so now, with it being the last trading day of the month and quarter and tomorrow being the first, we'll take a back seat.
Support stands at the 3275 level with resistance still at 3404-6. Higher box is defence so we'll stick with it and see if it works how we intended.
KOG’s bias for the week:
Bullish above 3250 with targets above 3278✅, 3285✅, 3297 and above that 3306
Bearish below 3250 with targets below 3240, 3232, 3220 and below that 3212
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3275 for 3279✅, 3285✅, 3289✅ and 3306 in extension of the move
Break below 3260 for 3255, 3251, 3240 and 3235 in extension of the move
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Analysis of gold price rise and fall on MondayAnalysis of gold price rise and fall on Monday
The probability distribution of gold price trend next Monday is as follows:
Probability of rise: 55%-60%.
Support factors include: the expectation of Fed rate cuts has been strengthened, the dollar is weak, the tariff deadline is approaching, triggering safe-haven demand, and the momentum of short-term rebound in the technical aspect.
Probability of decline: 35%-40%.
Risk factors include: strong resistance at 3360 points on the technical side, temporary relief of geopolitical risks, and profit-taking pressure.
Probability of sideways fluctuation: 5%-10%.
If there is a lack of catalysts, the gold price may fluctuate in the range of 3310-3360, waiting for new clues.
Operation strategy reference:
Long position strategy: If the gold price falls back to the 3310-3315 area and stabilizes, you can go long with a light position, set the stop loss below 3300, and the target is 3325-3330 (it can go up to 3335-3340 after breaking through).
Short-selling strategy: If the gold price rises to the 3350-3360 range, you can short with a light position, set the stop loss above 3360, and target 3325-3330 (after breaking through, look down to 3310--3300-3280).
Fundamentals
Weight analysis of key influencing factors:
Subsequent impact of US non-farm payrolls data: If the detailed interpretation of non-farm data next Monday continues to ferment, it may provide support for gold.
Expected changes in the tariff decision on July 9: Next Monday will be the last trading day before the suspension of US trade tariffs (July 9), and market concerns about the Trump administration's possible increase in tariffs may heat up.
Any relevant news or official statements may trigger safe-haven funds to flow into gold.
Key technical game:
The battle between the $3310 support level and the $3360 resistance level will continue to dominate the short-term trend.
If the opening price remains above the 3330-3340 range next Monday, it may test the 3360 resistance; if it falls below 3310, it may fall to the 3280 support.
Trends of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields: The US dollar index has recently fallen to a two-year low (96.875), and US Treasury yields have also fallen (10-year yields are 4.228%). If this trend continues, it will be good for gold.
Geopolitical risk dynamics: Although the situation in the Middle East has not escalated further, it is still in a tense state, and sudden news may disrupt the market at any time.
XAUUSD GOING SHORTGOLD has recently broken its last low, shifting market structure (CHOCH) and indicating sellers are currently in control. This break opened up 2 clear Supply Zone above — a small base or last bullish candle before the drop — which is a key area where unfulfilled sell orders may be resting.
Price is likely to retrace back into these Supply Zone to fill those orders. Once it reaches this area, we expect selling pressure to resume and push price downward, honoring the imbalance left by the drop.
Entry:
I’m looking to sell from this Supply Zone on a pullback,
This lets me enter at a premium price while trading in direction of the newly established downward momentum.
Target:
The first Target Profit (TP) is set at the next Demand Zone below, where buying pressure might emerge. This Demand Zone is a key area to watch for a reversal or a temporary halt in downward momentum.
Stop Loss:
To control risk, the Stop Loss (SL) is placed just above the Supply Zone.
If price climbs above this area, it would invalidate the Supply’s ability to hold, signalling a potential reversal.
✅ Summary:
• Market has shifted to bearish after breaking last low.
• Supply Zone above is a key area to watch for selling opportunities.
• Sell upon retracement into Supply, with Stop Loss above and Target at Demand below.
H1 pullback in bullish H4 marketThe market is at a point where we must sell, it's at a maximum of Elliott Waves, wave 5 is already extremely extended, so prepare for a mega drop of several weeks while everyone continues to buy at the lows, it will continue to go down. In summary, we have a bullish market on H4, now there will be a correction on H1, that is, a bearish trend on H1 for several weeks; it is not an ABC, but 5 bearish waves.
Down the road - Gold Outlook June 30 - July 24, 2025FX_IDC:XAUUSD
📰 The past weeks has been a wild ride for gold prices, caught between the fiery conflict in the Middle East and a deluge of crucial economic data from the U.S. 📈 Adding to this, a detailed technical analysis provides a deeper look into gold's immediate future.
**Geopolitical Drama Unfolds & Peace Prevails!** 🕊️ ceasefire negotiations.
Initially, gold was shrouded in uncertainty 🌫️ due to the Iran-Israel war, with markets bracing for potential U.S. involvement and a full-blown escalation. Daily tit-for-tat attacks between Iran and Israel kept everyone on edge, and the question of U.S. intervention remained a nail-biter 😬, though President Trump did announce a 14-day "timeout".
Then came the dramatic twist on June 21st: "Operation Midnighthammer" saw the U.S. unleash bunker-buster bombs on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. 💥 Short time later, the U.S. declared mission accomplished, stating their goal of destroying these sites was achieved, and no further attacks would follow.
Iran's response, "Operation Annunciation of Victory," on the following Monday, involved missile strikes on U.S. military bases in Qatar and Iraq. 🚀 Interestingly, these attacks were pre-announced, allowing for safe evacuations and thankfully, no casualties. 🙏
The biggest surprise came from President Trump as he declared, "Congratulations world, it's time for peace!" 🎉 He then brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which, despite being fragile, largely held, leading to the war's end.🤝 Both nations, as expected, officially claimed victory – a common move to satisfy their citizens. 🏅
Personally, I was genuinely surprised that the U.S.President mediated ceasefire, actually brought the conflict to a close – but it's a welcome outcome! 🙏
**Economic Data & Fed's Steady Hand** 💹🏛️
The cessation of hostilities triggered a steady downward slide in gold prices from June 24th to 27th. ⬇️ This dip initially met some market resistance but it ultimately prevailed, especially with the release of mixed U.S. economic data, which, despite being varied, was generally interpreted positively by the market.
The spotlight also shone on the Federal Reserve, with several representatives speaking and Fed Chair Jerome Powell undergoing a two-day Senate hearing. 🎤👨⚖️ Powell meticulously explained the Fed's rationale for holding interest rates steady, despite market pressures. 🤷 However, recent whispers suggest the Federal Reserve might actually cut rates in September! 😮
## Geopolitical News Landscape 🌍📰
India / Pakistan
Pakistan rejected claims that it supported militant groups active in Indian Kashmir. India issued a formal protest but reported no fresh border clashes during the week.
Outlook 🔮: De-escalation is possible in the short term. However, unresolved disputes over water rights (Indus Treaty) could reignite tensions.
Gaza Conflict
Heavy Israeli airstrikes killed dozens in Gaza, including civilians near aid centers. The UN warned that U.S.-backed aid systems are failing. Humanitarian corridors remain blocked.
Outlook 🔮: Ceasefire talks may resume in July, but success depends on international pressure and safe humanitarian access.
Russia / Ukraine
Russia advanced 36 sq mi in eastern Ukraine, deploying outdated T-62 tanks. Ukraine reinforced defensive lines, aided by Western military packages.
Outlook 🔮: The front remains volatile. Sustained Western support will be key to halting further Russian gains.
U.S. – China Trade War
A breakthrough deal was signed for China to fast-track rare-earth exports to the U.S. Talks on tech transfer and tariffs continue behind closed doors.
Outlook 🔮: A phased de-escalation is possible, but deep trust issues linger, especially over semiconductors and AI.
🌐 Global Trade War
Several countries, including Brazil and Thailand, imposed fresh restrictions on Chinese imports, echoing the U.S. stance. Global supply chains remain fragmented.
Outlook 🔮: Trade blocs like the EU and Mercosur may take on greater importance as countries hedge against rising protectionism.
Trump vs. Powell
Fed Chair Powell resisted political pressure, stating rate cuts are unlikely before September. Trump called him “stubborn” and demanded immediate easing.
Outlook 🔮: The Fed’s independence is under strain. If Trump wins re-election, major policy shifts could follow.
📈 U.S. Inflation
Despite tariffs, core inflation remains elevated. Powell warned of persistent price pressures. Trump insists the Fed should cut rates to boost growth.
Outlook 🔮: A rate cut later in 2025 is possible—if labor market data weakens. Until then, inflation will remain politically explosive.
## Technical View 📐📈
**Current Market Context:** Gold plummeted to $3,273.67 USD/t.oz on June 27, 2025, marking a 1.65% drop from the previous day, which confirms the strong bearish momentum. The price action shows a significant retreat from recent highs around $3,400.
**ICT (Inner Circle Trader) Methodology Analysis:**
* **Market Structure:**
The trend is clearly bearish, with a definitive break of structure (BOS) to the downside.
* **Order Blocks:**
Several bearish order blocks have been identified at prior resistance levels, specifically in the $3,380-$3,400 range.
* **Fair Value Gaps (FVG):**
The aggressive sell-off has created multiple imbalances, particularly in the $3,350-$3,320 range.
* **Liquidity Pools:**
Buy-side liquidity above $3,400 has been swept. Sell-side liquidity is now accumulating below the $3,270 lows, which is the current target zone.
* **Session Analysis:**
The London session showed aggressive selling, followed by a continuation of bearish momentum in the New York session. The Asia session could see consolidation or further declines.
* **Smart Money Concepts:**
Heavy selling pressure suggests "smart money" distribution. There's been strong bearish displacement from $3,380 down to $3,270, indicating the market is currently in a "sell program" phase.
**Gann Analysis:**
* **Gann Angles & Time Cycles:**
The primary 1x1 Gann angle has been broken, pointing to continued weakness. Key price squares indicate resistance at $3,375 (25²) and support at $3,249 (57²). Daily cycles suggest a potential turning point around June 30-July 1, while weekly cycles indicate continued pressure through early July.
* **Gann Levels:**
* Resistance: $3,375, $3,400, $3,481 (59²)
* Support: $3,249, $3,136, $3,025
**Fibonacci Analysis:**
* **Key Retracement Levels (from recent swing high to low):**
* 78.6%: $3,378 (Strong resistance)
* 61.8%: $3,348 (Key resistance zone)
* 50.0%: $3,325 (Psychological level)
* 38.2%: $3,302 (Minor resistance)
* 23.6%: $3,285 (Current area of interest)
* **Fibonacci Extensions (Downside Targets):**
* 127.2%: $3,245
* 161.8%: $3,195
* 261.8%: $3,095
* **Time-Based Fibonacci:**
The next significant time cluster is July 2-3, 2025, with a major cycle completion expected around July 15-17, 2025.
**Institutional Levels & Volume Analysis:**
* **Key Institutional Levels:**
* Major Resistance: $3,400 (psychological + institutional)
* Secondary Resistance: $3,350-$3,375 (order block cluster)
* Primary Support: $3,250-$3,270 (institutional accumulation zone)
* Major Support: $3,200 (monthly pivot area)
* **Volume Profile Analysis:**
* High Volume Node (HVN): $3,320-$3,340 (fair value area)
* Low Volume Node (LVN): $3,280-$3,300 (potential acceleration zone)
* Point of Control (POC): Currently around $3,330
**Central Bank & Hedge Fund Levels:**
Based on recent COT data and institutional positioning, heavy resistance is seen at $3,400-$3,430, where institutions likely distributed. An accumulation zone for "smart money" re-entry is anticipated at $3,200-$3,250.
**Cycle Timing Analysis:**
* **Short-Term Cycles (Intraday):**
Bearish momentum is expected to continue for another 12-18 hours. A daily cycle low is likely between June 29-30, with a potential reversal zone on July 1-2 for the 3-day cycle.
* **Medium-Term Cycles:**
The current weekly cycle is in week 3 of a 4-week decline. The monthly cycle indicates a mid-cycle correction within a larger uptrend. For the quarterly cycle, Q3 2025 could see a major low formation.
* **Seasonal Patterns:**
July-August is typically a weaker period for gold ("Summer Doldrums"). September has historically been strong for precious metals ("September Effect"), setting up for a potential major move higher in Q4 2025 ("Year-End Rally").
**Trading Strategy & Levels:**
* **Bearish Scenario (Primary):**
* Entry: Sell rallies into the $3,320-$3,350 resistance zone.
* Targets: $3,250, $3,200, $3,150.
* Stop Loss: Above $3,380.
* **Bullish Scenario (Secondary):**
* Entry: Buy support at $3,250-$3,270 with confirmation.
* Targets: $3,320, $3,375, $3,400.
* Stop Loss: Below $3,230.
**Key Events to Watch:**
* **US PCE Data:**
Fresh downside risks could emerge ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data release.
* **Fed Communications:**
Any hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve could further pressure gold.
* **Geopolitical Developments:**
Ongoing global events could trigger safe-haven demand.
**Conclusion:**
The technical picture for gold suggests continued short-term weakness, with the metal testing its 2025 trend line at $3,290 following last week's rejection at the $3,430 resistance. However, the longer-term outlook remains constructive, given gold's robust performance year-to-date. Key support at $3,250-$3,270 will be crucial in determining the next significant price movement.
**Upcoming Week's Economic Calendar (June 29 - July 4, 2025):** 🗓️🌍
🗓️ Get ready for these important economic events (EDT)
* ** Sunday , June 29, 2025**
* 21:30 CNY: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 49.6, Previous: 49.5
* ** Monday , June 30, 2025**
* 09:45 USD: Chicago PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 42.7, Previous: 40.5
* ** Tuesday , July 1, 2025**
* 05:00 EUR: CPI (YoY) (Jun) - Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 1.9%
* 09:30 USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks
* 09:45 USD: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 52.0, Previous: 52.0
* 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5
* 10:00 USD: ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 70.2, Previous: 69.4
* 10:00 USD: JOLTS Job Openings (May) - Forecast: 7.450M, Previous: 7.391M
* ** Wednesday , July 2, 2025**
* 08:15 USD: ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) - Forecast: 80K, Previous: 37K
* 10:30 USD: Crude Oil Inventories - Forecast: -5.836M
* ** Thursday , July 3, 2025**
* Holiday: United States - Independence Day (Early close at 13:00) 🇺🇸⏰
* 08:30 USD: Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jun) - Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%
* 08:30 USD: Initial Jobless Claims - Forecast: 239K, Previous: 236K
* 08:30 USD: Nonfarm Payrolls (Jun) - Forecast: 129K, Previous: 139K
* 08:30 USD: Unemployment Rate (Jun) - Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%
* 09:45 USD: S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 53.1, Previous: 53.1
* 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) - Forecast: 50.3, Previous: 49.9
* 10:00 USD: ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Jun) - Forecast: 68.7
* ** Friday , July 4, 2025**
* All Day: Holiday - United States - Independence Day 🎆
**Gold Price Forecast for the Coming Week** 🔮💰
Given last week's market movements, there's a strong likelihood that the downward trend in gold prices will continue.🔽 However, fresh news can always flip the script! 🔄 As of now, I expect gold to dip further to $3255 by mid-next week. Yet, a brief rebound towards $3300 isn't out of the question before a potential drop to $3200 by week's end or early the following week. 🤞
Please take the time to let me know what you think about this. 💬
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
This is just my personal market idea and not financial advice! 📢 Trading gold and other financial instruments carries risks – only invest what you can afford to lose. Always do your own analysis, use solid risk management, and trade responsibly.
Good luck and safe trading! 🚀📊
GOLD LIQUIDITY MASTERCLASS: The Smart Money Playbook Revealed🧠 INSTITUTIONAL MINDSET
At $3,365: "Perfect! Time to sell into retail buying"
At $3,337: "Let's see how this plays out"
At $3,318: "Preparing for the hunt"
At $3,270: "Starting to accumulate"
At $3,245: "Loading the truck! This is what we've been waiting for"
🔍 LIQUIDITY ZONES DECODED: The Hidden Treasure Map
🎯 BELLOW SELL IF CLOSE CONFIRMED: $3,318
Significance: Close below = bears take control
Time Frame: 4H close confirmation needed
________________
🛡️ BUY ZONE & 1H OB: $3,270
The Fortress: Major institutional buy zone
Order Block Significance: 1H order block provides additional support
Risk/Reward Sweet Spot: Excellent entry for swing positions
_______________
⚡ BUY ZONE + ADD CONFIRMATION LIQUIDITY SWEEP: $3,245
The Ultimate Accumulation Zone: Where smart money loads up
_________ 🎯 STRATEGY _________
Entry: $3,238-$3,2440 (after liquidity sweep confirmation)
Stop Loss: $3,230 (below the sweep low)
Target 1: $3,290 (Risk:Reward 1:3)
Target 2: $3,320 (Risk:Reward 1:5)
Target 3: $3,365 (Risk:Reward 1:8)
🚨 RISK WARNING 🛡️ DYOR 🚨 DISCLAIMER - JUST FOR EDUCATION PROPOSAL ⚠️
GOLD Breakout Done Let`s Buy It To Get Clear 200 Pips !Here is my opinion on 30 mins T.F , We have a very good bullish price action and we have a very good breakout with amazing bullish candle and now the price back to retest the breakout area , it`s my fav place to enter a buy trade and the price can move 200 Pips easy , i`m waiting for retest and good bullish price action to enter a buy trade .
GOLD Massive Bullish Breakout!
HI,Traders !
#GOLD is trading in a strong
Uptrend and the price just
Made a massive bullish
Breakout of the falling
Resistance line and the
Breakout is confirmed
So after a potential pullback
We will be expecting a
Further bullish continuation !
Comment and subscribe to help us grow !
Gold Rebound Underway – Support Zone Holds Strong! - Short termGold( OANDA:XAUUSD ), as I anticipated in the previous idea , has attacked the Support zone($3,281-$3,243) and Support lines .
From an Elliott Wave theory perspective , it appears that Gold has completed 5 sub-waves of the main wave C .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence(RD+) between Consecutive Valleys.
I expect Gold to rise to at least $3,307 in the coming hours.
Second Target: $3,321
Note: Stop Loss (SL) = $3,240
Gold Analyze (XAUUSD), 1-hour time frame.
Be sure to follow the updated ideas.
Do not forget to put a Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy; this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅ ' like ' ✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Why Gold Trading is Not Easy for Beginners - Trading PsychologyGold Doesn’t Just Teach Trading. It Teaches You Discipline.
1. Why Gold? Why Not Everything Else?
Gold is the most honest manipulator in the market.
It respects structure down to key intraday levels—but builds traps around it like a pro.
It fakes direction, sweeps liquidity, teases early entries, then moves beautifully for anyone patient enough to wait.
And it’s daily: one premium buy and one killer sell almost every day—hundreds of pips on the table for eyes that can see.
Other assets feel slow once you lock into Gold’s rhythm.
So what to expect:
2. The Phases Before Profit
• Lucky Dumb Money
Early wins boost your confidence. You increase your risk. It all feels easy—until the market proves otherwise.
• The Slap
Suddenly, things don’t work anymore. Indicators stop making sense. Emotions interfere. Results shift, and frustration creeps in. This is the breaking point for most traders. 6 months to 1 year on XAUUSD and they are out.
• The Awakening
This is when clarity begins. Indicators are dropped. Structure, liquidity, and timing take center stage.
What once looked random now starts to make sense.
Progress begins the moment YOUR EGO gets quiet.
Consistency only follows those who choose patience over panic.
3. Gold Is a Mirror
Gold doesn’t just reflect your trades — it reflects YOU.
Every personal flaw shows up on the chart: impatience, doubt, greed, fear, ego.
It mirrors your decisions, your reactions, your emotional patterns — all of it.
Blaming the market delays growth.
But the moment you turn inward, you begin to see the truth:
your results reflect your level of discipline, clarity, and self-awareness.
Gold forces you to evolve.
Not just as a trader, but as a thinker, a decision-maker, a human.
That’s why it’s not for everyone. Some people are not ready to recognize who they truly are yet.
4. What Leads to Profitability
What actually leads to profitability in Gold?
It’s fast. It’s full of adrenaline.
But you have to get a routine - consistent, structured, and effective — when applied with discipline.
→ One pair only. Mastery on XAUUSD
→ Structure first. Liquidity, imbalance, session timing
→ Fewer trades, cleaner entries
→ Smaller lots, more control = emotions are in check
→ Relentless observation. Learn from each execution and adjust with intention
This is what leads to results.
Not noise. Not hope. Just precision and presence — again and again.
5. You Won’t Win Until You Commit
You don’t need to destroy your schedule or stay up all night.
But you do need to make time for growth.
Signals won’t help if you’re not willing to understand the asset you’re trading.
Gold filters out shortcuts, distractions, and surface-level effort.
But those who take it seriously earn every pip — and they earn it with clarity, not luck.
So stop asking,
“How long until I’m profitable?”
Start asking,
“Am I ready to do what Gold actually demands?”
CONCLUSION:
Most traders don’t fail because Gold is too complicated—
they fail because they try to figure it out alone.
They chase signals, skip the process, and ignore the real path to consistency:
invest in education, proper mentorship, and trading psychology coaching.
The ones who grow fastest are those who seek guidance early—
from people who live and breathe this market, and understand structure, mindset, and pressure.
If you choose to go at it alone, that’s also a good choice.
Just know: it will take longer. It will test your patience and your clarity.
But when the structure clicks… when you stop chasing setups and start executing with confidence…
When you secure 3–4 solid trades a week and avoid unnecessary losses—
everything changes. Trading becomes calm. Focused. Even enjoyable.
Whichever path you take, the outcome depends on the same thing:
Gold won’t just test your trades.
It will develop your discipline.
If this lesson helped you today and brought you more clarity:
Drop a 🚀 and follow us✅ for more published ideas.
XAUUSD on Falling swingH4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding falling pattern and Drop on Fundamentals .
ISM news is comming just after 5 mins.
What's possible scanarios we have?
im expecting that gold needs one more drop correction at atleast 3315-3305 area market will join the 3290 then 3280 milestone.
Exceptional case:
If the H4 candle remains above 3345 then keep your eyes at 3365 then 3380.
#XAUUSD
XAUUSD_1WWorld Gold Analysis
Long -term frame time
Eliot wave analysis style
The market is in five waves of climbing and we are expected to be in the 4th wave, with the main and important number being $ 3333, and if the price is maintained as a resistance, it will continue to reform and move to $ 3000, which can be modified for up to 3 months and enters the next wave on October 5, 2025. As a wave 5 and move toward $ 3888.
The original number $ 3333!
Gold Bounces from Demand Zone – Next Targets in Sight!By analyzing the gold chart on the 4-hour timeframe, we can see that today, price once again dipped into our key demand zone (Bullish Rejection Block) between $3245 and $3262, where it faced strong buying pressure and rallied up to $3296.
Currently, gold is trading around $3281, and as long as price holds above $3273, we expect further upside. The next potential targets are $3294, $3300, and $3309.
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TRENDLINE BREAKOUT [LONG]In this analysis we're focusing on 4H timeframe. As we know that price move impulse toward upside and break trendline, now I'm waiting for retracement. Once price reach my zone and give any type of bullish confirmation than we'll execute our trade. This is a higher time frame analysis and key levels. Let's analyze more deeply into smaller time frame and potential outcomes.
Always use stoploss for your trade.
Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio.
#XAUUSD 4H Technical Analysis Expected Move.
XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) 4h chart pattern XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) on the 4-hour timeframe displays a bullish cup and handle pattern forming, with a breakout above the handle resistance and Ichimoku cloud.
Technical Observations:
Cup and Handle pattern indicates bullish continuation.
Breakout has occurred above trendline and handle.
Price is trading near $3,350 (approx).
Two upside TARGETS are marked on the chart.
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🎯 Projected Targets (Approximate):
Based on your chart:
1. First Target (TP1): Around $3,390 - $3,395
2. Second Target (TP2): Around $3,425 - $3,430
These targets align with the measured move of the cup height projected from the breakout level.
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✅ Confirmation:
Price is above the trendline and trying to hold above the Ichimoku cloud.
Entry would be ideal on a pullback to the breakout zone (~31,335-$3,340) for lower risk.
Stop-loss can be considered below the handle low (~$3,310 or $3,305).
Let me know if you want Fibonacci-based targets or support/resistance levels as well.
GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [Jul 07 - Jul 11]OANDA:XAUUSD opened the week at $3,246/oz due to low summer liquidity, easing recession fears and easing geopolitical tensions. However, they later recovered to $3,365/oz due to concerns about a possible re-escalation of the trade war, as some countries faced obstacles in negotiations with the US ahead of the July 9 tariff delay deadline. By the end of the week, prices had adjusted to $3,311/oz and closed at $3,335/oz.
In addition, the US Senate has passed the OBBBA tax cut and spending bill proposed by President Donald Trump. While it helps prevent the risk of a short-term default, the bill could increase the US public debt by more than $3,000 billion over the next 10 years, putting pressure on the bond market and raising concerns about the increasing supply of government bonds while demand is weakening.
However, US economic data over the weekend put downward pressure on gold. Specifically, the June employment report showed that the number of non-farm jobs (NFP) reached 147,000, exceeding the forecast of 111,000. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. At the same time, NFP data for April and May were also adjusted up to 158,000 and 144,000 jobs, respectively.
These positive numbers almost erased the expectation that the FED would cut interest rates in July. The FED also reaffirmed its stance on maintaining the current policy due to rising inflationary pressures.
Overall, gold prices are still stuck in a range, and a clearer prospect of interest rate cuts from the FED is needed to make a strong breakthrough in the near future.
📌Technically, the $3,310/oz level is now acting as an important support zone for gold prices next week. If this level is broken, prices may continue to fall further to the $3,245/oz area or even lower.
On the other hand, the $3,365/oz level is a strong resistance. If gold prices break through this area, there is a high possibility that they will approach the $3,400/oz mark. However, the upward momentum may be restrained afterwards due to profit-taking pressure from investors, especially when the US-China trade negotiations are still ongoing and have not reached a final agreement. Investors tend to be cautious, waiting for clearer signals before opening new positions.
Notable technical levels are listed below.
Support: 3,300 – 3,292 – 3,250USD
Resistance: 3,350 – 3,371 – 3,400USD
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 3401 - 3399⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3405
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 3294 - 3296⚡️
↠↠ Stop Loss 3290
XAUUSD (GOLD/USD) Breakdown
🔴 1. UT in Phase B (Upthrust = Trap)
This move above the previous high was likely a liquidity grab, not a real breakout.
Price action showed rejection without follow-through — classic Wyckoff distribution behavior.
→ 📉 Smart money sells into retail buying.
🔴 2. SOW (Sign of Weakness)
After the UT, price dumped aggressively and broke short-term support.
This creates lower confidence in bullish continuation.
→ 📉 Weak hands shaken, structure looks heavy.
🔴 3. Bearish Structure (Waves i–ii–iii setting up)
Wave I = first drop after the UT.
Wave II = current bounce — looks corrective, not impulsive.
Expecting Wave III = the next strong sell leg.
→ 🎯 Target: revisit 3,072 → 3,040 → PML (3,010) → even 2,955.
🔴 4. Volume Profile Confirmation
Price is failing to hold the high-volume node (3,303–3,327).
Below this = thin volume zone, which price tends to drop through quickly.
→ 🚨 Liquidity vacuum below.
🔴 5. Resistance Cluster Above
Multiple key levels between 3,500–3,563 = heavy resistance.
Also aligns with the invalidation zone for the bearish count.
→ ❌ If price moves above here with strength = bias invalidated.
GOLD 3H Chart Pattern, I have marked a cup formationGOLD 3H Chart Pattern, I have marked a cup formation, which often indicates a bullish reversal setup. Based on the chart:
Key Levels:
Current Price Zone: Around 3,323 - 3,330
First Target: Near 3,380 - 3,400
Final Target: Near 3,440 - 3,460
Analysis:
Price is forming a cup pattern with resistance around 3,380 - 3,400
Break above 3,400 could lead towards the final target zone of 3,440 - 3,460
Watch for price reaction near Ichimoku Cloud; clean breakout above the cloud confirms bullish momentum
Suggested Targets:
✅ First Target: 3,380 - 3,400 USD
✅ Second Target: 3,440 - 3,460 USD
Note: Wait for confirmation above 3,330 - 3,340 and bullish momentum to continue.
If you want, I can also give stop-loss and entry suggestions based on this chart. Let me know!