$XAUUSD: Macro InterconnectionsResearch Notes
Linking historic surface area and coordinates of consistent geometric expressions to document and learn more about the "texture" of self-organizing processes. The topology assumes that current price is a result of all history together that took to make the price end up where it is.
The fastest shortcut to figure out fractal hierarchy of waves and general direction is through Fractal wave marker .
Since angle of highs cycle is broken and price stayed above it for long time. That means it would be better to strip the chart starting from the lower levels, in order to get better coordinates for structural basis.
FWM helps to spot that distinctive part of broken waves that enables visual orientation in the rhythm. They manifest in its closest formative across cycles.
The angle that links the pattern through the time can have deterministic property, therefore we can use that direction for fibonacci channels to fill the gaps.
The fact that on log scale the bits from bullish phase of cycles contracted on price scale, I'd orientate with thin fibonacci channels (that is based on angle of lows of macro-cycle applied to previous ATH.
There are some other interconnection that are being tested.
GOLDCFD trade ideas
Bullish or Bear trapHello Traders 👋
What are your thoughts on XAUUSD
Looking at the daily timeframe I anticipate manipulation by market players on gold.
Is likely that market players will stop Hunt Traders who have their stop losses at the different lows which is indicated with a red circle.
For every buyer there must be a seller and for every seller there must be a buyer.Where they are no sellers in the market the institutions will want to trigger stop losses in order to buy,which is known as stop hunting.That is to takeout previous buyers in the market and generate liquidity to buy.
And this stop hunting usually happens in a ranging market.
Looking at the structure of gold we can see that gold is ranging,
We can see a low or support of the range which was previously resistance and turned support for the ranging market.
I see the market using sell liquidity to liquidate buyers and react at the support or low of the range and move up to the range of the resistance
Gold – Bear-to-Bull Transition in Motion?🧠 MJTrading:
TVC:GOLD – 8H Chart: Bulls, It’s Your Move.
📸 Viewing Tip:
🛠️ Some layout elements may shift depending on your screen size.
🔗 View the fixed high-resolution chart here:
The impulsive move from 3000 to 3500 wasn’t just a trend — it was a statement of strength.
That rally carved the ATH, then left behind weeks of digestion and structural compression.
Now, the market may be setting up for its next decision.
Notice how each bearish leg has been shrinking — a classic behavioral signal that sellers are losing momentum — possibly a shift in control underway.
We’re also pressing above the downtrend line from the ATH (3500), while the uptrend from 3000 remains clean and respected.
We’re now testing the 3400 zone — a key battleground.
📍 If bulls want to reclaim the momentum and show dominance, this is the moment to act.
🔹 1st Support: 3363–3377
🔹 2nd Support: Rising trendline
🎯 Target Zone: 3455–3500+ (Liquidity Pool & ATH proximity)
⚠️ Break back inside the triangle could delay the breakout narrative.
⚠️ If momentum fails to increase from here, and bulls can’t break out with conviction, the market is likely to remain range-bound for longer — extending the sideways phase between 3250–3500.
💭 If you’re watching for a new ATH… stay sharp, stay structured — the market rewards patience and readiness.
“If the structure speaks to you, let it echo, boost it.”
📐 MJTrading 🚀
What do you think?
#GoldAnalysis #XAUUSD #MarketStructure #LiquiditySweep #AnythingCanHappen
#MJTrading
#ChartDesigner
Psychology Always Matters:
Click on them for the caption...
XAU/USD – Current Wave Count & Potential ScenariosOANDA:XAUUSD
We are currently moving from (white) wave 3 to (white) wave 4.
So far, I am leaning towards the white count where the waves labeled (A), (B), (C) form a larger corrective wave A, which leads to wave B, and then to (white) wave 4.
Up to now, we have only completed (A) and (B).
Now, in the yellow bracket, we can interpret a 1-2-3-4-5 structure leading to (white) wave C 🟡.
Alternatively, one could interpret a triangle pattern (pink count):
Waves A, B, C, D, E, which would then form our wave 4.
In that case, we would expect bullish targets afterwards 🚀.
We need to watch closely if the price reverses or breaks through our yellow Fibonacci zone 🟡.
For now, we are primarily looking for upside potential 🔼.
From our yellow wave 2, we saw a downward push, which could theoretically be our yellow wave 1 leading into yellow wave 2 and the yellow Fibonacci zone — essentially a five-wave move from wave 2 to wave 3.
Gold at Key Resistance – Bearish Pullback Ahead?Technical Analysis (2H Chart)
1. Trend Structure:
Price is moving in a clear ascending channel (black trend lines).
Currently testing the upper boundary of the channel, which may act as resistance.
2. Resistance Zones:
$3,431–$3,450: Strong resistance zone.
Horizontal resistance at $3,450.73 (marked in red).
Price may form a lower high before reversal, as the black arrow suggests.
3. Support Zones:
$3,374 – $3,360: Previous structure and demand zone (highlighted green).
Strong potential bounce zone if price drops.
4. Price Action Expectation:
Possible fakeout or retest near $3,450 → followed by a rejection and drop toward the $3,360 area.
Bearish bias indicated by the projected path.
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
Interesting open for the week, not just on gold but across the markets! Our plan yesterday in the KOG Report was to look for that lower support level to hold and then not only to target Excalibur which confirmed the move, but also the red box and bias level targets. This worked well and yet again, within a day, we've completed the week's targets upside!
We couldn't short from the first red box as it was broken. Now we have the red box above which is holding and giving a slight move downside and with the indicators flashing red, we'll stick with the move so far initially looking for 3390-85. We're not discounting a retest of the level, but as long as it holds, we'll go with it.
KOG’s Bias for the week:
Bullish above 3340 with targets above 3355✅, 3361✅, 3368✅, 3372✅ and above that 3385✅
Bearish below 3340 with targets below 3335, 3330, 3322, 3316, 3310 and below that 3304
RED BOX TARGETS:
Break above 3350 for 3355✅, 3361✅, 3367✅, 3375✅ and 3390✅ in extension of the move
Break below 3340 for 3335, 3330, 3320, 3310 and 3306 in extension of the move
Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment, and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Bullish continuation?The Gold (XAU/USD) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,390.13
1st Support: 3,356.66
1st Resistance: 3,491.05
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GOLD - SHORT TO $2,880 (UPDATE)Beautiful melt overnight, with Gold down close to 400 PIPS so far. Zoom in to the left & you'll see I've also added in a trendline which sellers have now start taking out. Another strong confluence of sellers taking control.
I warned you all last night not to sleep on Gold. My Gold Fund investors are in deep profits😉
Gold Trade Plan 24/07/2025Dear Traders,
The price is currently near the demand zone in the range of 3358-3362. If the price holds above the support line, it could rise towards the 3388-3390 zone and then enter a correction again. However, if the 3362-3358 zone is broken, I expect a drop towards around 3350, followed by a potential rise towards the 3400 zone.
regards,
Alireza!
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD – July 28, 2025📊
________________________________________
🔍 Momentum Analysis:
• D1 Timeframe: Momentum has entered the oversold zone. This strongly suggests a potential bullish reversal today, which could lead to a rally or sideways movement lasting around 4–5 days.
• H4 Timeframe: Momentum is reversing upward. This indicates a likely bullish or sideways move in the short term, at least until momentum reaches the overbought zone (estimated within the next 2 H4 candles).
• H1 Timeframe: Momentum is currently overbought, so we may first see a pullback or sideways movement until a clearer reversal signal appears.
________________________________________
🌀 Wave Structure Analysis:
• On the H4 chart, as noted in previous plans, the assumption that price is forming a contracting triangle (abcde) is still valid. Price is currently in the final leg (wave e) of this triangle.
• On the H1 chart, we can observe a channel structure, within which an abc corrective pattern is unfolding.
• The lower boundary of the triangle (marked by the green trendline) combined with support zones will be critical areas to monitor for the end of wave e.
🔺 Note: Wave e does not necessarily end precisely at the triangle boundary – it can slightly overshoot. Hence, we’ll rely on smaller wave structures to identify potential reversal zones.
________________________________________
🎯 Key Price Zones to Watch:
• Target 1: 3329
• Target 2: 3309
• Target 3: 3290
________________________________________
🔎 Lower Timeframe Structure (M10):
From the current price action (as shown in the chart), we can see a leading diagonal triangle structure forming. This is a pattern commonly seen in wave 1. If this pattern is confirmed, a sharp and steep decline toward the 3329 zone is likely.
________________________________________
⚖️ Combining Momentum & Wave Structure:
• D1: Signals a potential reversal → favors Buy setups.
• H4: Momentum is rising, but price hasn’t confirmed a new bullish trend → need to stay alert and tighten Stop Loss.
• H1: Overbought + possible leading diagonal → Expecting a pullback for wave 2 toward 3329 → this would be the optimal Buy zone.
________________________________________
🧭 Trade Plan:
• For experienced traders:
→ Wait for price to reach key levels and watch for reversal signals before entering.
• For beginners:
→ Use the following Limit Buy setup:
✅ Setup 1:
• Buy zone: 3330 – 3328
• Stop Loss: 3320
• TP1: 3351
• TP2: 3370
• TP3: 3385
✅ Setup 2:
• Buy zone: 3310 – 3308
• Stop Loss: 3300
• TP1: 3328
• TP2: 3351
• TP3: 3370
Gold-----sell near 3350, target 3320-3300Gold market analysis:
The gold weekly candlestick pattern is a tombstone. The previous strong trend has turned into a weak trend after the high and low. Has the weekly selling come out? In fact, the historical weekly line has hit the top and fallen back three times, and there has been no big drop or deep drop. The long-term trend is still buying. The short-term adjustment has not changed the long-term buying trend. The international situation is not very clear, and it is difficult for gold to fall deeply. We are just a short-term trader. We need to follow. This week's operation idea is to follow the selling, or rebound selling. In addition, this week is a super data week, and buying and selling games will be inevitable. This week there are non-agricultural employment data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting resolution, each of which can make the market magnificent. The daily K has entered its bottom support. Selling near 3300 needs to be avoided. These positions are all buying counterattack positions. In the rebound of the Asian session, we first focus on the suppression near 3350. This position is the K-intensive area of the bears, the K-line pattern suppression, and the daily moving average suppression position. Consider selling when the multi-layer suppression is close. I estimate that it will enter the repair at the beginning of this week, and wait for the data to bring direction later. Those who like to swipe back and forth can also find a good rhythm to sell long-term and buy short-term.
Support 3320, strong support 3306-3300, pressure 3350 and 3357, the watershed of strength and weakness of the market is 3350.
Fundamental analysis:
The latest news is that the United States and the European Union have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which overall supports the US dollar and suppresses gold. In addition, this week, pay attention to ADP employment data, non-agricultural employment data, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and speech.
Operational suggestions:
Gold-----sell near 3350, target 3320-3300
Gold 22 July 2025 updateGood afternoon, update to last week's post of 21 July on gold, which worked yesterday, new zone to buy, the chart shows everything in detail, so today with the message "brevity is the sister of talent"
#GOLD
BUY LIMIT ZONE 3365-3370
🎯 TP1: 3385
🎯 TP2: 3400
🎯 TP3: 3412
🎯 TP3: 3428
⛔️ Stop loss: 3355
Regards, Totoshka™
Gold Trade Plan 25/07/2025Dear Trader,
Gold (XAU/USD) is currently in a corrective phase, reaching near the support zone at around 3,340. The price is testing the trendline, and we may see a potential bounce towards the resistance level at 3,400-3,420. If the price breaks below this support, we could expect a further drop towards the next support levels near 3,325-3,310. The market will likely consolidate in this range until we see a breakout in either direction. The key levels to watch are 3,340 (support) and 3,400-3,420 (resistance). Monitor the price action closely as a reversal or continuation can occur here.
Regards,
Alireza!
GOLD → Correction before continuing the rally to 3450FX:XAUUSD updates its local maximum to 3401.5 and enters a consolidation phase ahead of news. The dollar correction gives speculators a chance...
The price of gold is correcting from 3400. The reason is profit-taking ahead of Powell's speech at 12:30 GMT and waiting for clarity on US trade negotiations with the EU and Japan before August 1.
Gold remains sensitive to the progress of negotiations and the dynamics of the dollar, which is weakening amid political uncertainty, declining yields, and pressure on the Fed from Trump.
Technically, after exiting consolidation and retesting 3400, the price is entering a local consolidation phase.
Focus on key levels: 3401, 3382, 3375. A false breakdown of support could trigger a recovery phase.
Resistance levels: 3402, 3393
Support levels: 3382, 3375, 3362.75
The distribution phase has been halted by resistance, and the price has moved into a countertrend correction due to uncertainty. Markets are waiting for positive signals from the Fed. Local and global trends are bullish, which may support the price overall...
Best regards, R. Linda!
XAUUSD (1H Time frame) Read the captionXAU/USD Analysis (1H Timeframe )
This chart represents the XAU/USD (Gold vs US Dollar) price movement on a 1-hour timeframe, showcasing a well-defined ascending channel. The analysis highlights three critical zones:
1. Resistance Level (Upper Blue Zone):
This zone, located around the $3,440 - $3,450 range, marks the potential upper limit of the current bullish channel. A breakout above this level could indicate strong bullish momentum continuation.
2. Key Support Breakout Zone (Middle Purple Zone):
Around the $3,390 - $3,400 range, this area previously acted as resistance and now serves as a key support level. A price retest and bounce from this zone could confirm it as a new support base, potentially triggering a move toward the resistance zone again.
3. Support Level (Lower Purple Zone):
Found near the $3,320 level, this is the broader trendline and horizontal support zone that would be critical if the price breaks below the key support area. It acts as a major demand zone within the ascending channel.
Observations:
The price is currently in a strong uptrend within the rising channel.
A retest of the key support breakout zone is anticipated before potentially pushing higher toward resistance.
A breakdown below the key support could trigger a move toward the lower support level.
Technical Bias:
Bullish as long as the price remains above the key support level.
Bearish reversal may occur on a confirmed breakdown below the ascending channel and lower support zone.
Gold Market Update – Key Zones for the Next MoveHey gold lovers! As the NY session wraps up, the chart is a painting of tension: gold boxed tight between major structure — and the real action is only about to start.
Bias:
At this stage, gold remains in a short-term bullish structure as long as price holds above the 3421–3428 decision area. A break and hold below this zone would shift the bias to neutral or bearish for the next sessions.
🎨 What’s drawn on the chart?
🟥 3472–3478 Supply Zone:
The ceiling, still untouched — this is where every failed breakout has left a “scar” on the chart. If we finally reach this zone, watch for wicks, rejections, or that rare, clean breakout candle. Sellers and patient bulls are both watching for “the drawing” to be complete.
🟩 3383–3390 Demand Zone:
The real floor. On your chart, it’s the base built by strong bounces and those long wicks buyers left behind. If price falls here, it’s not just a line: it’s a zone where new rallies are born and the market might “paint” a major reversal.
🟦 The Middle is Just Noise
Price is coiling, painting confusion in the center — but the edge zones are where structure and opportunity live.
Don’t be the trader who gets erased in the chop. Let price draw the story at supply or demand before making your move.
💡 Plan for Tonight
Wait for price to reach 🟥 supply or 🟩 demand.
Watch the “drawing” — will you see a wick, a rejection, or a true breakout?
Only trade once the story is clear at the edges.
Drop your best chart art or scenario below!
like🚀🚀🚀and 🔔 Follow for real structure updates & daily market stories — let’s turn trading into a masterpiece, together.
GoldFxMinds
Is Smart Money Selling Gold? A VSA LookHey Traders,
Let's take a look at the Gold (XAU/USD) 1-hour chart using Volume Spread Analysis (VSA). The price made a strong run-up to a new high around $3,438, but the volume is telling us a story of potential weakness.
Here’s a simple breakdown of what I'm seeing.
The Trap at the Top (Signs of Weakness)
Think of the market as being moved by "smart money" (professionals) and "herd money" (the crowd).
Climax Volume: See that huge volume spike right at the peak on July 23rd? While it looks like strong buying, this is often a classic sign of a Buying Climax. This is where smart money starts selling their positions to the excited crowd who are buying at the top, fearing they'll miss out.
No Real Buyers Left: After the peak, notice how the price tried to push higher a few times but on much lower volume? This is a "No Demand" signal. It’s like a car trying to rev its engine, but it's out of gas. It shows there isn't enough buying power to push the price any higher.
Sellers Take Control: As the price started to fall from the top, look at the volume on the down bars. It got bigger. This tells us that supply (selling pressure) is now in control, and they are pushing the price down with force.
Where Are We Now?
The price has dropped and is now hovering around the $3,330 area. The volume has dried up for now, which means the market is taking a pause and deciding where to go next.
What to Watch For Next
Based on the VSA story, here are two possible scenarios:
Scenario 1 (Bearish 📉): The weakness continues. If we see the price try to rally from here but the volume is very low, it would be another major red flag. It would suggest sellers are still in control, and we could see a break below the recent low of $3,320 for another leg down.
Scenario 2 (Bullish 📈): This is a bear trap. For this to happen, we would need to see a strong sign of buying returning. For example, a sharp drop on massive volume that is quickly bought back up. This would signal that the sellers have been absorbed and smart money is starting to buy again.
Conclusion:
For now, the evidence points more towards weakness. The action at the top suggests that smart money was distributing (selling) their gold.
Key Takeaway: Be cautious of any weak-looking bounces. The sellers appear to have the upper hand until we see a clear sign of strength with high buying volume.
This is not financial advice. This is just my interpretation of the chart using VSA. Always do your own research and manage your risk. Good luck trading!