XAUUSD H4 Outlook – “Fed Week: Only the Real Zones”Hello, gold traders!
FOMC week is here, the dollar’s flexing, and gold is stuck under a fortress of supply. No fantasy, no overlaps, just your real, actionable H4 map—zones spaced, logic tight, and all fluff deleted.
⬜Bias:
Neutral to bearish while price is capped under 3,355 and the EMA cluster.
Only flip bullish if price closes and holds above 3,375 with strong confirmation after news.
Current Price: 3,336.81
Summary for your audience:
Neutral–bearish: All the EMAs (21/50/100/200) are overhead, and the primary supply and decision zones are blocking any upside.
No reason to flip bullish unless gold breaks out and holds above both the decision zone and the full supply ceiling after major news.
All bounces into supply are likely to get faded, unless the structure changes dramatically post-FOMC.
🟥 ULTRA SUPPLY ZONE: 3,390 – 3,405
127–161.8% Fib extension—liquidity grab and stop-hunt target for news-driven spikes
Only short if you see a monster upper wick and hard rejection
🟥 PRIMARY SUPPLY: 3,365 – 3,375
All EMAs (21/50/100/200) are stacked overhead; unfilled FVG at 3,370–3,375
Short on a clear rally rejection or bearish engulfing candle—this is where most breakouts get trapped
🔶 DECISION ZONE: 3,340 – 3,355
EMA100/200 straddle this level; small FVG at 3,350–3,352
Market “decides” here—fade unless price closes decisively above 3,355
🔵 EQUILIBRIUM SHELF: 3,320 – 3,335
50% Fib at 3,327; filled FVG at 3,325–3,330; SMA50 just below
Bounce/fake-break zone—wait for a clean H4 reversal, not a guess
🟢 FIRST DEMAND BASE: 3,290 – 3,310
H4 Order Block, hidden FVG (3,300–3,305), Fib 38.2% around 3,295
Longs only with strong pin-bar/engulf and quick EMA50 reclaim
🔵 DEEP PULLBACK BAY: 3,250 – 3,280
Weekly EMA21 and 61.8% Fib (~3,260), strong volume
Only consider a long on a panic flush and a powerful reversal wick
⚡️ MACRO CONTEXT
USD: On fire into ADP and FOMC; gold moves will be explosive, not logical
Events:
Tue: ADP
Wed: FOMC + Powell
Thu: Core PCE
Fri: NFP, ISM
Bias: Neutral-bearish under 3,355; only bullish if we close and hold above 3,375
EMAs: Clustered tightly overhead—bulls get no respect until this ceiling is crushed
🎯 TRADE LOGIC
Shorts:
3,390–3,405 (big wicks and clear rejection only)
3,365–3,375 (news spike or failed breakout with bearish candle)
Longs:
3,340–3,355 (only on a confirmed close above)
3,320–3,335 (strong reversal only—don’t front run)
3,290–3,310 (classic H4 pin-bar/engulf + EMA50 reclaim)
3,250–3,280 (deep panic flush and major reversal only)
NO TRADE: In the gaps—let the gamblers get chewed up, not you.
💬 Which zone will you snipe? Drop a comment and show you’re here for structure, not noise!
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Disclosure: Chart via Trade Nation’s TradingView feed. Influencer Program participant.
GoldFxMinds 💛
