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Gold at a Crossroads: Key Correction to Avert Deeper DeclineXAUUSD Analysis: Navigating a Complex Gold Market Amid Volatility The XAUUSD pair is currently navigating a critical juncture as it tests key zones of interest within an ongoing counter-trend correction. This comes after successfully breaching a significant resistance level earlier. However, the broader market landscape remains challenging, with bearish sentiment taking the forefront. Fundamental Overview The downward pressure on gold is largely driven by a combination of factors, primarily stemming from the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance. Persistent concerns about inflation, the uncertain trajectory of Trump's future policy, and mixed economic data from the past two weeks have all contributed to a negative outlook for the yellow metal. One critical point to note is the speculation surrounding the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy in 2025. The cycle of interest rate cuts, initially expected to be more aggressive, now appears to be slowing, with projections indicating only two potential cuts for the year. This cautious stance has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, adding to the bearish tone in the market. The correction observed on Friday was largely influenced by the release of PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) data, which acted as a temporary catalyst for price movement. However, this correction does not appear sufficient to alter the broader bearish narrative. As the year draws to a close, liquidity in the markets is expected to decline further. This seasonal trend could exacerbate volatility, particularly if assets become mispriced in thinner trading conditions. Traders are advised to exercise heightened caution during this period. Despite the prevailing bearish sentiment, it is essential to acknowledge the ongoing geopolitical risks that continue to underpin the gold market. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe have provided a degree of support, acting as a counterbalance to the otherwise negative fundamental backdrop. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, gold appears to be forming a flag pattern following its recent sharp decline. The price is currently trading within the boundaries of this consolidation pattern. For traders, the critical focus should be on the local channel's support and resistance levels, as they will likely dictate the next significant price movement. Resistance Levels: 2620: A pivotal level where bearish momentum could intensify if broken and defended by sellers. 2631: Secondary resistance that could act as a hurdle for any upward attempt. 2640-2650: This zone could serve as a testing ground if the price attempts to break above the channel resistance. Support Levels: 2606: Immediate support level that may provide short-term stability. 2560: A deeper support level, which, if breached, could signal a more substantial downside move. The 2620 level deserves particular attention. Should sellers manage to push the price below this threshold and maintain control, it could significantly amplify bearish pressure, potentially triggering a more pronounced price drop. Conversely, the possibility of a breakout above the flag pattern's resistance cannot be entirely dismissed. In such a scenario, the price might retest the 2640-2650 zone before resuming its downward trajectory. Market Outlook and Final Thoughts As we approach the final stretch of the year, market participants should prepare for heightened volatility fueled by reduced liquidity. Mispriced assets during this period could lead to unexpected price swings, making risk management a top priority. While the bearish narrative remains dominant, traders should remain vigilant for any developments that could shift the balance of power, including geopolitical escalations or unexpected shifts in monetary policy. In summary, the gold market presents a complex mix of technical setups and fundamental drivers. Navigating this environment requires a careful balance of short-term tactical positioning and a broader understanding of the macroeconomic landscape. Keep an eye on key levels and stay prepared for potential surprises in this volatile market.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
Don’t worry when buying gold at the bottom The Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday and Powell's subsequent speech, although the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points as expected, its "hawkish" tone had a significant impact on the price of gold. The Fed lowered its expectations for future easing policies, predicting only two interest rate cuts of 25 basis points in 2025, lower than the previous forecast. This shows that the Fed is more concerned about inflation risks and remains cautious about economic growth. This policy shift resonates with strong US economic data, further strengthening the market's expectations for the Fed's future policies. The final value of US GDP in the third quarter was revised up to 3.1%, higher than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims also fell sharply, showing that the labor market is still strong. These data show that the resilience of the US economy is stronger than expected, providing support for the Fed to maintain a relatively tight monetary policy. For the gold market, the Fed's "hawkish" stance has put significant pressure on gold prices. As a non-interest-bearing asset, gold's price is negatively correlated with interest rates. A low interest rate environment is usually good for gold because it reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, the Fed has hinted at a slower pace of rate cuts, or even a pause, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, dampening demand for the metal. The strengthening of the U.S. dollar index has also had a negative impact on gold prices denominated in U.S. dollars. The market is currently divided over expectations for inflation. While recent inflation data has retreated, it is still above the Fed’s target level. Fed officials have also expressed concerns about persistently high inflation. The upcoming core PCE data (the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator) will be the focus of market attention, and the results will have an important impact on gold prices. If the data shows persistently high inflation, it could push up gold prices; otherwise, it could put further pressure on gold prices. While the Russia-Ukraine conflict is still ongoing, the market has adapted to its impact on the global economy and financial markets. Recently, some geopolitical events have had a relatively short-lived and limited impact on gold prices. Market sentiment plays an important role in gold price fluctuations. Recent stock market volatility reflects investors’ concerns about the outlook for global economic growth, which could boost demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. However, strong economic data and the Fed's "hawkish" stance have eased market concerns about risky assets to a certain extent, weakening the safe-haven function of gold. 1 The Fed hinted that it will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in the future, which will put some pressure on gold. 2 The speed of global economic growth will affect investors' preference for risky assets, weakening the safe-haven function of gold. 3 The current 1-hour downward trend of gold is clear. In summary, the current short-term trend of gold is weak. Today, investors are paying attention to the pressure area of ​​the 1-hour downward trend line above, and gold will be shorted after adjustment under pressure.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Yuliya1l11
1
XAUUSD Accumulation almost over. Strong rally expected to $3000.XAUUSD (Gold) is having the market worried lately as it hasn't made a new High since October 30. Instead it has been consolidating since the November 14 Low and even broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) last week. This is far from alarming though, as the long-term pattern remains a Channel Up since the October 06 2023 bottom and in fact the current level presents a strong long-term buy opportunity as a Higher Low formation of the pattern. As you can see, each of the 3 Bullish Legs of the Channel Up have rallied by around +20% but first they consolidated after first breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for 1 month. Even the RSI sequences between their fractals are identical. As a result, we believe that Gold may start the new Bullish Leg (4th) as early as late this week or next one and rally by at least +18.65% (rise of Bullish Leg 1), targeting $3000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by TradingShot
XAUUSD M30Gold Analysis - Another Exciting Prediction from Me! Following up on my previous analysis In the lower timeframes, following the steps outlined on the chart, we are likely to reach 2633.3 in Plan A, which seems more probable. If this scenario plays out, we’ll aim for a short position targeting 2550.8. In Plan B, the price may climb to 2656.6 before turning bearish, which could lead us to even lower levels. The key levels are identified, but the analysis will be updated with additional data. What do you think? Will we see 2520 by the end of the year?
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by GreyFX-NDS
Gold - Prepare For A Devastating Drop!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will create a massive correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Gold rallied more than +70% over the past couple of months, basically without showing any real correction. Therefore it is no surprise that after retesting the channel resistance, Gold is now showing some weakness. It is quite likely that this is just the beginning of a significant drop. Levels to watch: $2.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDShort
by basictradingtv
8
Rates Are Down, So Why Isn’t Gold Shining?Gold Prices Drop to 2581 Amid Market Turmoil: What's Driving the Decline? Gold prices, as reflected in the XAU/USD pair, have slumped to 2581, marking a significant dip in the market. While many anticipated that falling interest rates would bolster gold, the reality has turned out to be more complex. Yesterday’s developments weighed heavily on the precious metal, and surprisingly, the negative impact isn’t directly tied to rate cuts. Instead, a mix of economic uncertainty and technical market dynamics has pushed gold into bearish territory. The Core Reason Behind Gold’s Decline The primary driver of this downward movement is the Federal Reserve’s cautious approach regarding future rate cuts. While the Fed followed market expectations by reducing the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25% to 4.50%, its projections for next year surprised many. The central bank’s forecast of just two rate cuts in 2024 falls significantly short of market expectations, signaling a more hawkish stance than anticipated. This hawkishness has rippled through global markets. The U.S. dollar, buoyed by the Fed’s cautious tone, has strengthened, creating headwinds for commodities like gold that are priced in dollars. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, diminishing its appeal as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, broader market indices have also faced selling pressure, reflecting heightened concerns about the economic outlook. Technical Factors Amplify the Bearish Sentiment From a technical perspective, gold’s price action underscores the bearish sentiment dominating the market. The XAU/USD pair has decisively broken below a critical support level, exiting a global ascending channel that had been intact for weeks. This breakout has confirmed the downward momentum, with gold setting a new low at 2581. Key support and resistance levels now define the boundaries of potential price movements: Resistance Levels: 2620, 2630, 2636 Support Levels: 2616, 2612, 2603 After breaking below the support, the price has moved into an imbalance zone, signaling a possible retest of the previously broken channel boundary. This retest could serve as a pivotal moment for market participants. If the price fails to reclaim the resistance zones at 2620 or 2630 and consolidates below these levels, it could pave the way for further declines. False breakouts, where the price briefly breaches a resistance level before reversing, are another factor to watch closely. A failed attempt to break key resistances like 2620 or 2630 could reinforce the bearish trend and lead to further downward pressure on gold. Macroeconomic Data in Focus Today’s trading session brings additional catalysts that could shape gold’s trajectory. Market attention is firmly fixed on the release of U.S. GDP data and initial jobless claims. These indicators will provide fresh insights into the health of the U.S. economy and could either reinforce or challenge the Fed’s cautious stance. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading or lower-than-expected jobless claims could further support the dollar, adding to gold’s woes. Conversely, weaker economic data might rekindle hopes for more aggressive rate cuts, potentially offering some relief to gold prices. Broader Implications for Gold Investors The recent price action in gold highlights the complex interplay between macroeconomic fundamentals, central bank policies, and technical market dynamics. While gold has traditionally been viewed as a safe haven, its performance is not immune to shifts in interest rate expectations and currency fluctuations. For investors, the key question is whether gold’s current bearish trend represents a short-term correction or the beginning of a more sustained decline. Much will depend on how the Federal Reserve’s policy unfolds in the coming months and how global economic conditions evolve. In the short term, traders should monitor key technical levels closely. A decisive break above resistance at 2636 could signal a reversal of the bearish trend, while a sustained move below support at 2603 would likely confirm further downside potential. Until then, gold remains under pressure, navigating a challenging and uncertain landscape.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by lonelyPlayer0
2
GOLD ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Same as yesterday we are still playing within the retracement range and consolidating before FOMC. 2628 weighted level is still holding support and remains open and failure to lock below with ema5 will see a bounce from this level. However, EMA5 cross and lock below this level and we are likely to see the swing range open. We have FOMC release in 45 minutes so need to keep this in mind for the non organic movement that will need to settle down for the levels to start respecting. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 30 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. BULLISH TARGET 2666 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2666 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2682 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2682 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2697 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 2697 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 2719 BEARISH TARGETS 2645 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2645 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BEARISH TARGET 2628 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 2628 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE SWING RANGE 2606 - 2586 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
8
Scalping XAU ! Short recovery trend 2645 monday⭐️Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to rebound from the one-month low reached last Thursday, marking its third consecutive day of gains as the new week begins. The metal maintains its upward momentum during the early European session, supported by safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical tensions and concerns over trade disputes. However, the generally optimistic market sentiment limits further upside for the precious metal. ⭐️Personal comments NOVA: Gold is currently sideways in the price range of 2620-2630, short-term recovery trend, target retest range 2645 ⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2626 - $2624 SL $2621 scalping TP1: $2632 TP2: $2640 TP3: $2645 ⭐️Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
2
XAU/USD Chart Analysis and Analytical Gold Price ForecastXAU/USD Chart Analysis and Analytical Gold Price Forecast for 2025 With the holiday season underway, this week may be less volatile than the previous one, which was dominated by central bank decisions. This presents an opportunity to analyse the broader trends and outlook for gold prices in 2025. The XAU/USD chart reveals that gold prices have been moving within an ascending channel, gaining approximately 27% since the start of 2024. The short-term outlook appears bearish due to the following factors: - Gold prices fell after last week’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut, signalling increased selling pressure. - The $2,720 level remains a key resistance, having reversed the price downward in November and December. - While a recent upward reversal (indicated by an arrow) shows renewed buying interest near the lower boundary of the ascending channel, persistent selling pressure could still lead to a bearish trend. This might result in a breakdown below the blue channel's lower boundary and the formation of a descending channel (outlined in red). Despite short-term challenges, analysts remain optimistic about gold's prospects for 2025. Donald Trump's return to the White House may significantly change global trade, Western alliances, and geopolitical dynamics. These uncertainties may increase demand for gold as a so-called safe-haven asset. A BullionVault survey of around 1,450 participants predicts that gold prices could reach $3,070 by the end of 2025, driven by concerns over geopolitics and mounting national debt. In this context, even if the lower boundary of the blue channel is breached, bullish momentum could resume, possibly from one of the grey support levels. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSD
by FXOpen
1
Gold price forecastDonald Trump’s transition team is looking for ways to end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The trade war between the US and many countries, including China, may not be too tense. Donald Trump only sees tariffs as a negotiating tool. If the trade deficit improves, the trade war is likely to be less fierce. Donald Trump's transition team is looking for ways to end conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. The trade war between the US and many countries, including China, may not be too tense. Donald Trump only sees tariffs as a negotiating tool. If the trade deficit improves, the trade war is likely to be less fierce. In the long term, gold is still expected to rise as inflation signals rise again globally. The West has seen inflation return, while many Asian countries have stepped up monetary easing and have plans to pump money.
TVC:GOLDShort
by FalCol_TradingMaster
1
Profitable SMC Smart MoneyConcept Strategy Explained I will teach you how to trade liquidity grab, a trap, inducement, order block and imbalance. I will share with you my Smart Money Concept strategy for trading forex & gold. We will study a real SMC trading setup that I took on a live stream with my students. Trend Analysis With Structure Mapping The first step in our trading strategy will be the analysis of a market trend on a daily time frame with structure mapping. Analyzing GBPNZD on a daily time frame, we can see that the conditions for a bullish trend are met. Liquidity Zones Analysis The second step will be to find liquidity - supply and demand zones on a daily time frame. According to our rules, here are 3 liquidity zones that I spotted on GBPNZD. We see 2 demand zones and 1 supply zone. Test of Liquidity Zone The third step will be to wait for a test of a liquidity zone. And on that step, we should remember an important rule: We will wait only for a test of a liquidity zone that ALIGN with the market trend. It means that we will wait for a test of a demand zone in a bullish trend. We will wait for a test of a supply zone in a bearish trend. The only demand zones that meets these criteria on GBPNZD is Demand Zone 1. It aligns with a bullish trend. We don't consider Demand Zone 2, because a bearish violation of a Demand Zone 1 will be a Change of Character and a violation of a bearish trend. And here is how a test of a liquidity zone should look like. The price should simply reach that. Liquidity Grab & Imbalance After we identified a test of a significant liquidity zone that aligns with a market trend, we will start analyzing lower time frames. We will look for a liquidity grab, order block and imbalance on 4H and 1H time frames. Here is a liquidity grab that is confirmed by a bullish imbalance. We see a false violation of a liquidity zone, followed by a high momentum bullish candle. It will be our strong bullish signal. Order Block Zone In order to identify the entry point, the next step will be to identify the order block zone. According to our rules, here is the order block zone on a 4H time frame. Entry Level Our entry level will be the level of the upper boundary of the order block zone. Here is such a level on GBPNZD. A buy limit order should be set on that level. Please, note that in that particular case we don't need a 1H time frame analysis, because we have a confirmation signal on a 4H time frame. We will analyse an hourly time frame only when THERE IS NO SIGNAL on a 4H time frame. Stop Loss & Take Profit Safe stop loss should be below the lowest low of a bearish movement. To safely calculate a stop loss in pips for the trade, simply take 0.5 ATR - Average True Range. For Average True Range indicator , take the default settings - 14 length. Here is a safe stop loss level on GBPNZD. ATR is 55 pips. Our stop loss for the trade is 28 pips. Take profit for the trade will be based on the closest 4H liquidity - supply zone. That is the closest supply zone that I spotted on GBPNZD on a 4H time frame. Your target level should be a couple of pips below a supply zone. Look how perfectly the market reached the target! As you can see, that trading strategy is quite complex and combines different important elements. But what I like about this SMC trading strategy is that it truly makes sense. The intentions of Smart Money are crystal clear here and the trade execution rules are straight forward. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
How does gold price change on weekends? What should you note?Hello everyone, Ben here! Last week, we witnessed a significant drop in gold prices. At one point, gold prices fell to a low of $2,583. Currently, gold is trading around $2,627, stabilizing over the week. It is clear that the hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve (Fed) last week, indicating that they will slow the pace of rate cuts in 2025, supported the US Dollar (USD) to remain near its two-year high and acted as a drag on the non-yielding gold metal. Additionally, a positive risk trend contributed to limiting the gains of this precious metal. However, geopolitical risks stemming from the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war and tensions in the Middle East, along with fears of a trade war, continue to provide some support for gold as a safe-haven asset. Furthermore, a modest pullback in US Treasury yields has supported a mild buying tone amid thin trading volumes during Christmas Eve. Therefore, it would be wise to wait for some follow-through buying before positioning for any further recovery from last week’s one-month low. The projected price increase is expected to reach $2,650. What do you think about this? Sincerely, Bentradegold!
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Bentradegold
XAUUSD Price Forecast: Analyzing the Next Big Drop Chart Analysis: Current Market Price: As of the latest observation, the market price for Gold (XAUUSD) stands at approximately $2,623.61 per ounce. Recent Price Dynamics: Trend Observation: The chart depicts a pronounced bullish trend characterized by consecutive green candles, indicating a sustained increase in prices. Volatility Assessment: There is observable deceleration in market volatility, evident from the progressively smaller candle bodies and reduced range between highs and lows. Technical Indicators and Annotations: Break of Structure (BOS): Identified on the chart, this term typically denotes a significant level where the price action has breached previous support or resistance, suggesting a potential shift in market dynamics. Order Block (OB): Highlighted as a crucial zone, likely where substantial institutional orders have been historically placed, acting as pivotal resistance or support in subsequent price movements. Projected Price Path: The inclusion of a blue directional arrow forecasts a potential upcoming price movement, hypothesizing an ascent to a designated upper level followed by a sharp decline. This anticipated trajectory points towards the 'OB' zone as a potential upper resistance boundary. Temporal Context: The horizontal timeline marks forthcoming dates, extending predictions slightly beyond the screenshot’s timestamp, providing a short-term outlook up to December 25. Strategic Implications: Resistance Consideration: The identified 'OB' zone is anticipated to serve as a major resistance area. Reaching this level could significantly influence market behavior, potentially triggering substantial sell-offs. Anticipated Reversal: The projected upward movement towards the 'OB' zone, followed by a marked decline, suggests a strategic anticipation of a price reversal, which could offer critical entry and exit points for traders. Trading Strategy Formulation: Aligning with these insights, traders might consider adopting a long position as prices approach the resistance, with preparations to pivot to short positions should reversal signals manifest. Analytical Considerations: Validation through Confirmation: Traders are advised to seek corroborative evidence from additional technical indicators or chart patterns to reinforce decisions based on the projected path and identified zones. Risk Management Protocols: It is imperative to implement stringent risk management measures, including setting stop-loss orders and appropriately sizing positions, to safeguard investments against unforeseen market fluctuations.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by EliteTradersChoudharyJI
Gold Price Consolidation and Breakout Analysis: Key Levels... Gold Technical Analysis The price is expected to consolidate between 2620 and 2605 until a breakout occurs. From 2620, Gold is likely to experience a bearish movement toward 2605. A 1-hour candle closing below 2605 will support further bearish momentum toward 2591 and 2585. On the other hand, if a 4-hour candle closes above 2623, it will confirm bullish momentum, targeting 2638 and 2658. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2620 Resistance Levels: 2635, 2645, 2653 Support Levels: 2605, 2591, 2558 Trend Outlook: Bearish below 2620 Bullish above 2623
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi