Monthly cycles Polish MarketMonthly cycles built on seasonality.
Data range: 15 years.
Strong cycle from May 23 to June 10.
FW201! trade ideas
Example od Wyckoff accumulation on WIG20 Futures in Dec 2020Trends rarely reverse instantly.
It took 3 days to print this reversing pattern.
It is always good to have a real world example of Wyckoff accumulation at hand.
Including the volume!
In this case the main stopping power occurred in the Preliminary Support.
PS - Preliminary Support
SC - Selling Climax
AR - Automatic Rally
ST - Secondary Test
SOS - Sign of Strength
LPS - Last Point of Support
BLACK SWAN PESSIMISTIC SCENARIO WIG20This pessimistic scenario is based upon current state of healthcare services in Poland which were underfinanced for many years and have very limited resources in qualified personell and equipment.
There is significant lack of nurses and doctors in Poland not mentioning available hospital beds which means the system is near its breaking point.
Recents countrywide protests could lead to epidemic spread of Covid 19 infection which will soon paralyse healthcare sytem and force goverment to freeze everything.
Free fall if global weakens So far we are following expected pattern.
Breakout below lower bound of ascending channel, entrancement and back to support.
If we will break below 2055 with confirmed volumen there is a long free fall ahead of us, with lots of volatility and turning points. It's not going to be a smooth ride down, but direction will be clear.
Are we forming H&S?Following FW20 chart I can see a H&S formation.
If that will prove to be true next major support level should be found at 2055 (also a recent low on the Wig20 future contracts).
Relative weakness of Polish marketWith German DAX up 0,7% and US market futures in green FW20 shows relative weakness today.
Instead of expected recovery to 2110 levels we are slowly sliding lower and lower today.
If global sentiment will worsen during the day, further decline would be expected.
Otherwise at some point in the afternoon we might see some more buying in play and market return to 2080-2100.
Day off and now what?With market closed in Poland yesterday we have missed on lots of mood swings on the global markets just to land in about the same place as Wednesday.
Expecting an open around the same levels (2081) +/- 10 pt and based on a global sentiment there is a chance for a small recovery.
2111 should be easily within a reach.
Are we going to see 2054 this week? While trading futures is usually a short term play or swing dance it's worth to look at current levels form broader perspective.
If current support level (2090) will not hold (very likely) ther is just one final support at 2054 before we approach an abyss.
With yield curve inverted in the US and UK for the first time in a long time, poor state of German and Chinese economy and more clouds over the US sentiment will likely direct us toward 2054 and then ...
Well zoom out the chart at take a look.
And so the story goes ...Everyone seems to already forgotten yesterdays news and great emotional rally.
It looks like it was great place to open shorts.
Heading toward lows with a high probability to confirm a consistent downtrend, unless another tweet or piece of news will warm up Wall Street today.
Rebound in the US does not change a single thing for FW20Even with a great bounce in the US last night it seems like Polish market is going into only one direction. SOUTH.
FW20 just broke a support for the 2nd time and it seems like we have a open path for another significant drop.
Looking toward 2080 in near future?
All comments are welcome. Hit me with your insights.
Breakout not confirmed, yetBreakout below long term channel not confirmed yet.
Seems like this might have been a fals breakout.
Current global sentiment gives some hope to bring prices to high level but within few days I expect to test this long term support again.
If we will see global rebound in next 2 days, FW20 might bounce of current levels (2145) back to around 2180.
Longer term outlook remains bearish.
FW20 testing long term trend channelSo here we are. All the way down to 2136 braking long term trend channel.
Market looks weak, so if no major change on global sentiment will take place in next day this support will be broken.
Next stop 2080.
Support in play2153-2160 support levels in play. Strong downturn momentum in place.
Still some room before we will test a long term upward channel but I'm sure we will be testing it soon unless some signs of a change to global market sentiment will appear.
For now lets see how support plays out. Some small upward move after strong correction expected. With market at oversold levels it is highly possible.
Next stop at 1950Few minor resistant levels head, but I believe we are heading toward 1960-1950 level.
Let me know what yout think in comments below (in English or Polish)
