GOOG Medium-term position analysis
Company Name: Alphabet Inc (Google) Class C.
Stock Ticker: GOOG.
Fundamental Overview: Alphabet is a holding company engaged in acquiring and operating various businesses. It operates through Google and Other Bets segments. The Google segment includes its primary internet products, such as advertising, Android, Chrome, hardware, Google Cloud, Google Maps, Google Play, search, and YouTube. The Other Bets segment includes businesses like Access, Calico, CapitalG, GV, Verily, Waymo, and X. The company was founded by Lawrence E. Page and Sergey Mikhaylovich Brin on October 2, 2015, and is headquartered in Mountain View, California.
Financial Performance and Valuation: Alphabet's price-to-earnings ratio has fluctuated but remains within a reasonable range, indicating positive market expectations for earnings. The company's price-to-sales and price-to-book ratios have remained stable, reflecting market recognition of its profitability and asset value. Its enterprise value has grown from 1.06T USD to 1.83T USD, indicating optimistic market expectations for future growth. The enterprise value-to-EBITDA ratio suggests strong operational performance.
Earnings and Revenue: Alphabet consistently exceeds market expectations for earnings. In the most recent quarter, its earnings surpassed expectations by 8.04%, eliciting a favorable market response. Revenue primarily comes from Google Services, which has shown continuous growth from 168.63B USD in 2020 to 253.53B USD in 2022. The United States contributes the most significant portion of revenue.
Technical Analysis: RSI, Stochastic %K, CCI, ADX, AO, BBP indicate a neutral signal, suggesting balanced market sentiment. However, momentum indicators and MACD present a buy signal, indicating potential upward movement. Moving averages, Ichimoku Cloud Base Line, and Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) also display buy signals, reinforcing this expectation. Pivot point analysis suggests potential upside as resistance levels exceed the current price, with support levels indicating relatively lower downside risk in the short term.
Comprehensive Analysis:
From a financial perspective, Alphabet demonstrates stability, strong profitability, and growth potential. Its primary revenue source, Google Services, has shown continuous growth from $168.63 billion in 2020 to $253.53 billion in 2022.
Technically, while market sentiment appears neutral based on indicators, the buy signals from momentum indicators, MACD, and the majority of moving averages suggest a potential upward trend. Pivot point analysis also indicates upward potential with limited downside risk in the short term.
Moreover, from a fundamental standpoint, if the Federal Reserve delays interest rate hikes or adopts a dovish policy, it may keep borrowing costs relatively low, promoting capital expenditure and investment, which could positively impact Alphabet's revenue growth and stock price. Enhanced consumer purchasing power would further drive advertising spending and demand for digital services.
In conclusion, considering financial performance, earnings and revenue, and technical analysis, I have a positive outlook on Alphabet's stock. Additionally, I recommend monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on June 14th and the upcoming Q2 earnings report scheduled for July 25th to stay informed about market trends.
Trading Strategy:
Trading Direction: BUY
Entry Point: $109~$125
T1: $150
T2: $190
S1: $109
S2: $100
Stop Loss (SL): $85
Expiration date: September 1st.
