MSFT trade ideas
$MSFT - Math defies logicNational wide, possible global database crash today grounds all flights, cripples hospitals, scares the doot out of people.
Short Microsoft right? Well, let's look at the chart.
Bottom of regression channel after some powerful movement long term. It needed to correct.
Fibs show support, hammered off of the bottom of the current fib channel even under incredible negative real life PR. Can't make this PR up, it's devestating.
Airline stocks down across the board on this news..... MSFT is not?
It got killed pre-hours at 8am, big drop, but recovered on open.
If it holds this FIB level, it moves back up and is a good entry position after a long period of overcooked RSI
My confirmation is when teh stochastics and trend meter show the reversal on the 1 hour chart which is occurring now.
Not trade advice.
MSFT Short TargetI had several bearish charts for MSFT and when I saw it struggle after less than stellar earnings, it looked like a great short so I took it. NQ was up over 3% on the session, but MSFT remained flat. I saw this is as a bearish signal for MSFT and I was liking my position going into close.
To my surprise, MSFT held up incredibly well today considering what happened with NQ. I'm still surprised, but I expect it to break down eventually because it's weak and remains below $430. I think the range from $396-$430 is critical, so if it hits that area I'll look to take some profit.
In addition to the horizontal support, we also have a trendline support that goes back to November of 2023. This should be an area where bulls look to defend, but if not I think it gets worse and fast. Most stocks and indexes I see are right on the edge right now and whichever direction we break from here should end up being the new direction for a few weeks at least.
IS MICROSOFT coming towards the ascending TL?Following the global outage and impact is had on MSFT, I think it will be a driving force that may push MSFT towards the TL on my chart.
lets ee how it plays
Let Wait for Start Some Fresh Long in $NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:MSFT
Go for Fresh Long and Accumulation area..
MSFT Falling Channel PatternNASDAQ:MSFT post earnings now. Below the 100MA and still trading within the falling channel pattern. Will watch to see if we can start trading out of this channel tomorrow if the markets remain bullish like today (currently i'm very cautious for the next 60 days).
Microsoft - We still have to be patient...NASDAQ:MSFT dropped after reporting earnings and can now create a short term correction!
Simplicity is key, also when it comes to trading the higher timeframes on stocks. All you need are three lines in order to fully understand the trading history and also future of Microsoft. If we get a retest of the triangle breakout level, which is perfectly lining up with the rising trendline, a bullish continuation will be quite expected. Just wait for confirmation first though!
Levels to watch: $350
Keep your long term vision,
Philip - BasicTrading
MSFT Bear FlagMSFT does not look good on any time frames really, except for the super long term ones, where it's obviously trending up, uptrends have been broken.
The uptrend from April is broken, the $430 support level is broken. Now it's consolidating and forming a bear flag near last week's lows around $417. My short target is the $400-$396 area. To the upside, it has resistance at $430 and that trendline from April. I'd expect both of those to fail on retests, if it's able to reclaim then it would be time to look for longs IMO.
Microsoft (MSFT) ... Sell the BounceOn July 5th, MSFT completed a Wolfe Wave pattern and fell ~8% within a week to reach our Target 1, an obvious support area.
One should expect a bounce and a 50% retracement to around the $450 area.
This may, subject to broader market conditions, setup another selling opportunity to reach our targets.
Not investment advice... do your own due diligence
Note this is a 1H timeframe !
S
Microsoft Earnings Raise Fears Over AI Spending. Bubble Go Pop?Playing catch-up is big among the highflyers of technology as the Magnificent Seven club races to slurp up AI demand. But is AI spending going to lead to AI bonanza? It’s not that straightforward.
Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) reported its earnings update for the spring quarter Tuesday after the closing bell. But it failed to appease investors who seem to be waking up to a reality where the billions of dollars jammed into artificial intelligence might not that easily convert into coveted profits.
The AI-optimistic large-cap behemoth has spent piles of cash on advancing its artificial-intelligence capabilities without much to show for it. Markets punished the stock in after-hours trading with shares diving as deep as 8% — a drop that later recovered but still lingered under the flatline.
“Throw Some AI in There, They’ll Love It”
You know how much CEOs love to throw AI in their earnings calls? Microsoft boss Satya Nadella praised the company’s AI efforts in the call with shareholders but even the overuse of AI couldn’t bring the feelgood factor.
Microsoft’s AI-powered cloud business, Azure, grew 29% in the three months to June, falling short of expectations and undershooting the 31% growth in the previous quarter. The company rushed to patch it up and assuage spooked investors, saying the slowdown was due in part to demand for AI running ahead of capacity.
Microsoft: Throws $55.7 billion in capital expenditures.
AI: * giggles, burps * "Thanks for the cash."
For the past three months — the company’s fiscal fourth quarter — Microsoft saw its capital expenditures balloon by almost 80% year-over-year to $19 billion. Moreover, for fiscal 2024, total capital expenditures, or how much the company spent on new stuff, hit $55.7 billion — a figure that is likely to get surpassed next year as Microsoft projects increased spending on AI.
Microsoft’s quarterly results are the latest example, after Google’s (ticker: GOOGL ) flop of an earnings report and Tesla’s (ticker: TSLA ) profit-squeezing quarter , of Big Tech’s lofty aspirations when it comes to AI. And the pushback reaction from investors shows that expectations are so high, it’s near-impossible to beat them.
Big Tech is racing to build out the infrastructure layer that will allow AI to scale so it can start churning out a profit. But the going has recently gotten tough. The Magnificent Seven club of tech mainstays washed out more than $1.5 trillion from its collective market value in the past three weeks.
The question that lingers on investors’ minds right now is how long can markets stay patient before they see revenue growth from AI materialize?
Let Us Know Your Thoughts!
With all the hype around AI, do you see a bubble in the works? Or justified no-froth, no-nonsense valuations? Share your thoughts below!
MSFT Share Price Plummets After Earnings ReportMSFT Share Price Plummets After Earnings Report, But It’s Not All Bad
Yesterday, after the main trading session on the Nasdaq, Microsoft released its second-quarter report:
→ Earnings per share: actual = $2.95, forecast = $2.93;
→ Gross revenue: actual = $64.72 billion, forecast = $64.38 billion.
Despite key figures exceeding analyst expectations, MSFT's share price plummeted, falling below the psychological threshold of $400 in after-hours trading.
Investor disappointment may have been caused by the slowdown in growth of its cloud business and significant financial investments in AI infrastructure—a long-term investment with delayed payback.
Could the decline continue?
Today in pre-market trading, MSFT's price recovered to $411, suggesting that the initial negative reaction to the report may have been overly pessimistic. Additionally, there might have been a cascade of stop-loss liquidations below $400 and the June low around $405, which seemed "secure" when the price was above $460.
Technical analysis of MSFT’s chart shows that price action in 2024 formed an ascending blue channel. If the pre-market price doesn’t change significantly, today’s opening will be just below the channel’s lower boundary. If the RSI considered extended hours data, it might indicate exiting a deeply oversold zone (similar signals in 2024 had profit potential).
If the sharp decline followed by a strong recovery signifies the liquidation of speculators (likely given the approximately 24% rise from the start of the year to mid-July), then MSFT's price could return to the blue channel and resume growth within it (channel boundaries might need adjustment).
Wall Street analysts remain positive. According to TipRanks, the average MSFT forecast is $509.42 within 12 months (above the historical high). All 26 surveyed analysts recommend buying MSFT stock.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Microsoft (MSFT) - Edition #1Macro Outlook: 🚀 Bullish 🚀
Bullish momentum is on.
Any retrace from $455 - $448
If we get a price sweep of $445 then most than likely we'll get a bigger retrace to $432 - $410 and we'll still be completely bullish.
MSFT: Just For KicksMSFT hit 395 in after hours during their earnings call, so safe to say that 390 zone is a very strong support. MSFT is now resting on another support (407), so that could be acting as resistance or support tomorrow. If MSFT falls below 404 tomorrow, expect a move to 390. If 404 holds, expect a move back to 430. Either way, there's a gap that was created, and as traders know "all gaps must be filled" (eventually).
$MSFT ending diagonal? Lower prices ahead?I was long calls of NASDAQ:MSFT into this morning and took profits in the first couple hours of trading.
I initially thought we would see a move higher to the upper resistance at $455 or potentially as high as $465, but price couldn't break that $453 level.
After relooking at the chart, it looks like we're forming an ending diagonal. If we break down from here, I could see a large corrective move back down to that $397 or $370 support level (or potentially to the lower support levels). The risk of downside was not worth the potential $2 gain from here.
There's still a chance that we break higher and tag that upper resistance, but there are signs of weakness showing on the chart to me.
We should see what direction we move by the end of the week. Decision time.
MSFT still wave 4 we now seem to be in wave3 of C The chart posted is that of MSFT the BELL WEATHER has now drop in a clear wave 3 of C down into .50% from the peak to the oct low it is also a 15.9 % decline the same decline on a pct basis as we saw from july 2023 to the low of oct 2023 . the last support under all bullish wave count would be 371 this is .382 from peak 465 to 213 low oct . it is also wave a x 1.618 to = wave C at the same point . WAS that the super cycle peak at 465 ?? I have my doubts this is why I took june 2025 calls . I would look for selling at the 200 at 401 but once we close above 422 I would look for targets in the 545 area
MSFT: Heading lower after breaking its trendline.Microsoft sells of following ER and breaks its trendline. Target levels are marked on the chart. Closing July under 400 would be a major warning sign for the remaining of the earning season.
Stocks pairs trading: MSFT vs IBMLet's examine the trade potential for Microsoft (MSFT) and IBM by analyzing their key financial metrics and recent performance to determine reasons for going long on MSFT and short on IBM.
Earnings Growth:
Microsoft: EPS next Y of 13.37%
IBM: EPS next Y of 10.57%
Microsoft’s projected earnings growth outpaces IBM, reflecting stronger expectations for future profitability. This is bolstered by Microsoft’s continuous innovations in cloud computing and software, which have shown resilience and adaptability.
Debt and Liquidity:
Microsoft: Debt/Eq of 0.42
IBM: Debt/Eq of 2.49
Microsoft maintains a significantly lower debt-to-equity ratio compared to IBM, indicating a stronger balance sheet with less reliance on debt. This financial stability makes Microsoft a safer investment, especially in volatile markets.
Profitability Metrics:
Microsoft: ROA of 19.94%, ROE of 38.49%
IBM: ROA of 6.32%, ROE of 36.36%
Microsoft demonstrates superior profitability metrics, showcasing efficient asset and equity utilization to generate profits. This positions Microsoft as a more efficient and potentially more profitable investment.
Recent News Highlights:
Microsoft has been a leader in the SIEM market, with significant advancements in cloud-native solutions like Azure Sentinel, reinforcing its position in the cybersecurity space. Recent updates include fixing critical vulnerabilities and enhancing its Microsoft Defender for Cloud platform, reflecting its proactive stance on security.
On the other hand, IBM reported solid second-quarter results with an emphasis on software-led growth. However, concerns remain over its high debt levels and the potential impacts of macroeconomic conditions on its extensive hardware and services business. IBM has also been expanding its partnerships, such as with ASMPT for advanced chip packaging and Fermilab for quantum computing initiatives.
Decision:
Long on 1 Microsoft (MSFT)
Short on 2 IBM (IBM)
The rationale for this strategy is driven by Microsoft's stronger growth prospects, better financial health, and continued innovation compared to IBM's more moderate outlook and higher financial leverage.
MICROSOFT TOP DOWN ANALYSIS STRATEGYNASDAQ:MSFT showing signs of weakness. We might see further downside in coming weeks if that counter trend line is broken, the next area we be that key support level of $345
Microsoft Corp. Uptrend Line Rejection At $418.20. 30.07.2024- Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) faces an uptrend line rejection at $418.20.
- If this rejection holds, the price could rise to $448.47, with a potential further increase to $486.89 if $448.47 is breached.
- If the rejection fails, the price may decline to $394.50, with a possible drop to $375.84 if $394.50 is broken.
Apply risk management
Risk Warning: Trading in CFDs is highly speculative and carries a high level of risk. It is possible to lose all of your invested capital. These products may not be suitable for everyone, and you should ensure that you fully understand the risks taking into consideration your investment objectives, level of experience, personal circumstances as well as personal resources. Speculate only with funds that you can afford to lose. Seek independent advice if necessary. Please refer to our Risk Disclosure.
BDSwiss is a trading name of BDS Markets and BDS Ltd.
BDS Markets is a company incorporated under the laws of the Republic of Mauritius and is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Commission of Mauritius ( FSC ) under license number C116016172, address: 6th Floor, Tower 1, Nexteracom Building 72201 Ebene.
BDS Ltd is authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority Seychelles (FSA) under license number SD047, address: Suite 3, Global Village, Jivan’s Complex, Mont Fleuri, Mahe, Seychelles. Payment transactions are managed by BDS Markets (Registration number: 143350)
Disclaimer
Microsoft: Strangling our way throughGoing to purchase Microsoft strangles, expiry period around 4 months. 20 % +- stikes.
The idea here is that we are in for a period of volatility either way - AI is going to have to start yielding fruit soon or the investments are going to be absolutely gigantic. Given the fact that BoJ is ending its free money policy, this is getting harder to justify.
Inflation's Impact on Stock ReturnsInflation's Impact on Stock Returns
Inflation's pervasive influence on the financial landscape cannot be understated. It affects everything from everyday spending to large-scale investing. This FXOpen article dives into the intricate relationship between inflation and stock returns, unravelling the multifaceted dynamics at play. Join us as we dissect the mechanics of the impact of inflation on the stock market, offering clarity in a world of economic ebbs and flows.
Understanding Inflation
Inflation represents the rising prices of goods and services over time. While a moderate level of inflation is often viewed as a sign of a growing economy, high inflation can erode purchasing power, making everyday items more expensive for consumers. Those trading and investing during high inflation face challenges as it can diminish the real returns on investments.
Stock Returns Defined
Stock returns denote the gains or losses an investor realises from stock investments. These returns typically manifest in two ways: dividends and capital appreciation. Dividends are regular payments made by corporations to shareholders from their profits.
Capital appreciation, on the other hand, refers to the increase in a stock's price over time. It's important to note that stock returns can also be negative if a stock's price decreases. Influencing these returns are a myriad of factors, including company performance, market sentiment, and broader economic conditions.
Mechanisms: How Inflation Affects Stock Prices
Inflation, with its overarching grip on the economy, wields a substantial influence on stock prices. Understanding this dynamic is vital for traders looking to navigate the stock market during inflation. Below, we'll delve into the various mechanisms through which inflation affects stocks.
Cost of Goods Sold and Company Profitability
When there's inflation, the costs of raw materials and production generally rise. This escalation can squeeze a company's profit margins unless they pass these increased costs onto the consumers. For some industries, hiking prices might result in decreased demand, further impacting profitability. Consequently, stock prices can see downward pressure as potential investors foresee lower earnings.
Consumer Purchasing Power
Inflation erodes the value of money, meaning consumers can buy less with the same amount of money as before. This diminished purchasing power can lead to reduced consumer spending. Companies, especially those in the retail and consumer goods sector, may witness a dip in revenue. As revenues play a crucial role in determining stock value, a decline can lead to lower stock prices.
Central Bank Responses and Interest Rates
Central banks often intervene to counteract high inflation, primarily by raising interest rates. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for companies, which can hinder expansion plans and reduce profitability. Additionally, when inflation and interest rates rise, alternative investments like bonds become more appealing than stocks, leading to reduced demand for stocks.
By grasping these mechanisms, traders can better anticipate inflation's effect on stocks and devise strategies that account for the intricate relationship between inflation and the stock market.
Inflation's Dual Impact: Sectors and Market Caps
The impact of inflation isn't uniform across the board; it varies significantly between sectors and company sizes. Certain sectors, like commodities or energy, might benefit from rising prices, turning inflation into an advantage. Conversely, retail or consumer goods sectors might suffer as consumers' purchasing power diminishes, leading to decreased spending.
When examining company sizes, the inflation rate and stock market dynamics reveal nuanced patterns. Large-cap companies, with their diversified operations and global reach, often have better tools to hedge against inflationary pressures. In contrast, small-cap stocks, which might be more regionally focused and have fewer resources, can be more vulnerable to the negative effects of high inflation.
Historical Perspective: Inflation and Stock Market Performance
Historical data provides traders with valuable insights into the dynamics between inflation and stock market performance. For instance, during the 1970s, the US experienced a period of stagflation—simultaneous high inflation and stagnant economic growth. This era saw the S&P 500 struggle to provide real returns, largely due to soaring oil prices and tight monetary policy.
Another example can be traced to emerging markets like Argentina in the early 2000s. Faced with skyrocketing inflation rates, the stock market initially surged as locals shifted money into assets to retain value. However, long-term sustainability was challenged by economic instability and a lack of foreign investments.
Mitigation: How Traders Can Prepare for Inflation
Inflation can unsettle even the savviest traders, but with proper preparation, its challenges can be mitigated.
When investing during inflation, diversifying assets becomes paramount. Spreading investments across different asset classes and instruments can act as a buffer against inflation's adverse effects. For instance, you can trade forex or commodity, cryptocurrency*, and ETF CFDs on FXOpen’s TickTrader platform and further equip yourselves with the real-time data and tools necessary to make effective decisions.
Additionally, stocks of companies with strong pricing power, which can pass on increased costs to consumers, might fare better than others. Moreover, bonds, especially those with interest rates adjusting to inflation, can be among the best investments during inflation, offering a degree of protection to portfolios.
The Bottom Line
In understanding inflation's intricate relationship with stock returns, traders arm themselves with valuable insights. To navigate these economic complexities and optimise trading strategies, consider taking the next step: open an FXOpen account, a trusted broker that provides the tools and resources to thrive in ever-evolving financial markets.
*At FXOpen UK and FXOpen AU, Cryptocurrency CFDs are only available for trading by those clients categorised as Professional clients under FCA Rules and Professional clients under ASIC Rules, respectively. They are not available for trading by Retail clients.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
MSFT Microsoft Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven't entered MSFT when they bought a stake in OpenAI, the creator of ChatGPT:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of MSFT Microsoft Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 460usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $13.05.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
MSFT targets still 480 plus The chart posted is that of MSFT and we seem to be in a formed channel and a fib relationship in the channel . I will maintain my view till otherwise Best of trades Wavetimer
