Nvidia after earningschances are high for a retracement, since the stock shows not much of buying pressure.
My analysis is based on experience not facts.
NVDA trade ideas
NVDA expected to remain volatile near term before bullish move!!Expecting to see sellers resume control at 135-136 levels near term, to take price back to 118-120$ gap fill target for liquidity purposes.
After that, looking for price advancement to 158-165 buy-side target levels for final high on weekly buy cycle.
NVDA at a Critical Level! Will This Bounce Hold or Break? Technical Analysis for February 27, 2025:
1. Current Price Action:
* NVDA saw a significant drop but found temporary support near $124.39, aligning with a key volume area.
* A falling wedge pattern has formed, with a slight breakout attempt before a rejection at $130-$132.
* Strong volume increase at the lows suggests buyers are stepping in.
2. Key Levels to Watch:
* Support: $124.39 (Previous low) → Critical level; if broken, next major demand zones are $120 & $115.
* Resistance: $130 - $132 (Point of Control - POC) → Needs a break for bullish continuation.
* Upside Targets: $138.50, $141.50, $143.44 (Major resistance walls).
3. Indicators Analysis:
* MACD: Bearish momentum but could reverse if volume increases.
* Stoch RSI: Oversold; potential for a short-term bounce.
* Volume Profile: Heavy resistance at $130-$132; low liquidity below $124 could accelerate downside.
GEX & Option Strategy for Tomorrow and the Week:
1. Gamma Exposure (GEX) Insights:
* Call Walls: $138.50, $143.44, $150 → Resistance areas; breaking these could trigger a gamma squeeze.
* Put Walls: $120, $118, $115 → Key support zones where market makers may buy back short positions.
2. IV & Sentiment:
* IVR: 59.4 (moderate)
* IVx Avg: 87.1 (elevated) → High implied volatility favors option sellers.
* Call Positioning: 16.9% bullish sentiment.
* GEX Sentiment: Slightly bearish for now but could flip bullish above $132.
3. Trading Suggestions:
* Bullish Setup: Long if NVDA reclaims $132; target $138-$143, stop $129.
* Bearish Setup: Short if NVDA fails to hold $130; target $124-$120, stop $133.
* Options Play: Selling put spreads at $120 support or call spreads near $143 resistance.
📌 My Thoughts & Suggestion:
* NVDA is in a make-or-break zone at $130-$132; a strong break here could lead to a recovery toward $138-$143.
* If market weakness continues, $124-$120 support could get tested.
* Be cautious with options as IV is high, making premiums expensive.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and manage your risk before trading. 🚀
NVDA ... Nvidia levels for you to EnjoyHere is the 4hr chart with the Rainbow-Railroad employed...Make sure as always to use the Log "L" function in the bottom right to see hidden levels..
!0 min close up of earnings with Log:
10 min close up of earnings without Log:
10 min panned view of recent price action with Log:
10 min panned view of recent price action without Log
And the Daily Rainbow-Railroad....a modification to the CyQo-Cpyder's Nest:
NVIDIA Stock Chart Fibonacci Analysis 022625
Trading Idea
1) Find a FIBO slingshot
2) Check FIBO 61.80% level
3) Entry Point > 125/61.80%
Chart time frame: C
A) 15 min(1W-3M)
B) 1 hr(3M-6M)
C) 4 hr(6M-1year)
D) 1 day(1-3years)
Stock progress: A
A) Keep rising over 61.80% resistance
B) 61.80% resistance
C) 61.80% support
D) Hit the bottom
E) Hit the top
Stocks rise as they rise from support and fall from resistance. Our goal is to find a low support point and enter. It can be referred to as buying at the pullback point. The pullback point can be found with a Fibonacci extension of 61.80%. This is a step to find entry level. 1) Find a triangle (Fibonacci Speed Fan Line) that connects the high (resistance) and low (support) points of the stock in progress, where it is continuously expressed as a Slingshot, 2) and create a Fibonacci extension level for the first rising wave from the start point of slingshot pattern.
When the current price goes over 61.80% level , that can be a good entry point, especially if the SMA 100 and 200 curves are gathered together at 61.80%, it is a very good entry point.
As a great help, tradingview provides these Fibonacci speed fan lines and extension levels with ease. So if you use the Fibonacci fan line, the extension level, and the SMA 100/200 curve well, you can find an entry point for the stock market. At least you have to enter at this low point to avoid trading failure, and if you are skilled at entering this low point, with fibonacci6180 technique, your reading skill to chart will be greatly improved.
If you want to do day trading, please set the time frame to 5 minutes or 15 minutes, and you will see many of the low point of rising stocks.
If want to prefer long term range trading, you can set the time frame to 1 hr or 1 day.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Scalping Strategy🔥 Market Overview:
Trend: Short-term recovery after a sharp drop; overall structure still fragile.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $133.10, $135.00
Support: $130.00, $126.90
Indicators:
EMA9 below EMA200 → bearish pressure, but attempting a breakout.
MACD shows weak momentum, nearing a crossover.
RSI 54.56 (neutral), showing no strong divergence.
Risk of Short Squeeze? Low, but if price stabilizes above $133.10, it could trigger a rally.
Market Maker Activity: Accumulation signs, possible liquidity grab before a move.
🔥 Scalping Strategy:
🩸 1. Momentum Scalping (If Breakout Above $133.10)
Buy near: $133.10
Target: $135.00
Stop-loss: $132.00
Risk-to-Reward: 1:2
🩸 2. Range Scalping (If Price Stays Between $130 - $133)
Buy near: $130.00
Sell near: $133.00
Stop-loss: $129.50
Profit Potential: ~2.3%
🩸 3. Breakout Scalping (If Below $130.00)
Short below: $129.50
Target: $126.90
Stop-loss: $130.30
Risk-to-Reward: 1:3
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks):
If $133.10 holds, bullish recovery → potential run to $138-$140.
If $130.00 fails, bearish extension → drop to $126.90.
🔥 News & Market Context:
Earnings Report Coming Up: Potential high volatility.
AI Sector Sentiment: NVIDIA is a leader, but recent earnings of tech firms will impact movement.
Institutional Orders: Watching for heavy inflows.
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term Play: Range scalping between $130 - $133 is the safest bet.
🩸 Mid-term Play: Only long above $133.10 or short below $130.00.
🩸 Ideal Play: Momentum scalping with tight stops.
👑 Final Verdict: Patience before earnings—trade smart, avoid traps.
🔥 LucanInvestor's Quote:
"Precision in execution is what separates traders from gamblers."
Magnificent Seven & Hot Stocks: A Technical OverviewHello,
The past few days and weeks have brought a lot of movement in the stock market, and things seem a bit more redish than before. However, these kinds of moments also bring good opportunities—if you know where to look.
That’s why I decided to take a closer look at the some stocks from Magnificent Seven, scan some of the top market cap stocks, and give a short overview of what’s happening and what to watch.
Since technical analysis helps bring clarity in uncertain times, I will go over some key levels and liquidity zones that could present good opportunities. I will also cover a few stocks that are currently making headlines and generating a lot of interest in the investment world—such as Robinhood (HOOD) and Palantir (PLTR).
Let’s see what the market has to offer.
Microsoft (MSFT)
Microsoft has not made any major moves in the past few weeks, but selling pressure has started to build up, and the stock is now trading at its lowest levels in the past six months.
The most interesting and strongest support area is between $290 and $300. This is a level worth keeping an eye on.
--------------
Amazon (AMZN)
Yesterday, I got an alert from TradingView that AMZN has dropped into an interesting price zone after a small correction. If you don’t already use alerts, I highly recommend setting them up—keeping track of every stock manually is nearly impossible.
The $175–$210 zone is technically solid. Yes, it’s a wide range but there are different strategies you can use here.
Amazon (AMZN) – What to do?
If you don’t own AMZN yet, this could be a good spot to start building a position slowly. Buy a little in the upper part, a little in the middle, and a little in the lower part of this zone to get a balanced entry.
If you already own AMZN, I’d rather wait and aim for the middle of the range if you want to add more. If the stock takes off from here, you already have a position, so there’s no real FOMO. No need to rush.
Of course, this is just a technical view—you should still analyze the fundamentals and your investment thesis. The technicals have spoken and now it’s time to listen to the fundamentals. That way, you get the full picture and can react accordingly.
--------------
Alphabet (GOOG)
GOOG failed to break through the psychological $200 level. It has tested this level multiple times since the start of the year, but the result has been red candles.
If you already own the stock and are considering adding more, or if you are thinking about an entry, the $140–$160 zone is worth watching. At the moment, I don’t see a more logical technical entry.
--------------
Meta Platforms (META)
META has dropped 12% from its all-time high in just a few weeks. The stock has now slowly come to, what I call, a "picking zone" (if you have a better name for it, let me know! :D)—meaning a price range where those who make regular buys might want to pay attention.
Right now, the key levels to watch are ~$612 and ~$500, with $500 being the stronger level. The price has consolidated there a bit longer than around $612, and it also acts as a psychological support level.
--------------
Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B)
Berkshire has reached what I consider a profit-taking zone. If your fingers are itching and your wallet is waiting for a top-up, then why not? This doesn’t mean selling everything, but it could be a good spot for a partial exit—especially if you need capital for something else.
Why is this a logical profit-taking point?
Looking at previous price behavior around round numbers, we can see a pattern that works every time and your money can be “stuck” for years.
When a stock approaches a big round number for the first time, it tends to:
Consolidate – move sideways for a long time.
Get a strong correction – like Berkshire has done before.
Let’s make the round number concept clearer.
Imagine a stock price starts moving up from $30 and eventually reaches $1000.
Within this range, the key round numbers for me are: $50, $100, $200, $500, and $1000. These are levels where major market reactions often occur or levels that I trust the most as a criterion.
Let’s take Berkshire for example, touching these numbers for the first time:
$50 → 50% drop, took 5 years to recover.
$100 → Another 50% drop, also took 5 years to break higher.
$200 → Multi-year consolidation, 20% drop.
$500 → And now we’re here—your choice!
In a long-term portfolio, there are essentially two types of sales:
The investment thesis is no longer valid
Capital is needed for another purpose
If neither of these conditions is met, there’s no real reason to sell. However, if you need capital within the next six months, this could be a good point to do so. Historically, we’ve seen a pattern where the stock either undergoes a correction or remains stagnant for an extended period.
That makes it a perfect candidate for profit-taking—and if a correction does happen, there’s always the opportunity to buy back at lower prices.
At the moment, buying this stock could mean it stays within this price range for a few years, so I wouldn’t rush into new purchases.
--------------
Tesla (TSLA)
Historically, Tesla has followed technical analysis well due to its high volatility. It reflects market psychology very clearly, leaving visible footprints on the chart...
-----
I also cover these topics in-depth over on my Substack channel, where I break down the full picture and share my insights on the rest. If you want the complete breakdown and my take on what’s next, head over to my Substack (ENG).
🔗 Find the link in my BIO under the Website icon or simply copy and paste it directly.
See you there! 👀
Cheers,
Vaido
02/26 Special GEX Outlook: NVDA Earnings, GEX LevelsNVDA Earnings Announcement 🔥
NVIDIA reports earnings today, after market close, and this release could create significant movement. Let’s dive right into the charts and see what the technicals are telling us!
With earnings so close, I typically look only at the nearest expiration, which in this case is 02/28 (Friday).
The implied move (IV) is around 10%, or approximately 12 points in either direction. That’s what the market has priced in for this binary event.
Key Observations
The price is hovering around the Transition Zone and very close to the HVL (High Volume Level) around 130–132.
This suggests the market maker is trying to remain delta-neutral leading into earnings. Once the report hits, expect potential volatility on Wall Street! 🚀
GEX Levels for Friday
🔴 Bearish Scenario
The bottom of the Transition Zone is at 126.
If price drops below 126, the next major put support is at 120 and extends to 115 (a negative gamma squeeze zone).
In other words, a breach of 126 could lead to a quick slide down to 120.
🟢Bullish Scenario
Major call resistance stands at 150, with a secondary call wall at 145.
Above 133 (top of the Transition Zone), calls dominate, meaning the path to 145–150 could open up if we break above the HVL.
Longer-Term Perspective 📊
We’re still in an overall uptrend, but history shows that even with positive surprises on 2 out of the last 4 earnings calls, the market had already priced in those expectations—often leading to a sell-the-news reaction.
I do not recommend trading right before the earnings with a binary mindset. It’s like walking into a casino and putting all your chips on red or black—it’s pure gamble! 🎰
Call pricing skew has been on a downward trend since DeepSeek (likely referencing a volatility event), indicating that call butterflies might not be as attractive on NVDA now as they were in the past few weeks.
Fundamental Analysis 💡
NVIDIA is a hype stock, much like TSLA was a few years back. Its current price has factored in a lot of the future potential.
Based on FastGraphs and other valuation tools, NVDA 1.44%↑ seems overpriced relative to its underlying performance.
A correction might bring it closer to fair value (the “green zone”), like it did in October 2022.
Until then, I’m not considering it for a 5+ year long-term investment—no matter what the short-term price action is.
Conclusion & Post-Earnings Strategy 👉
We simply don’t know which direction NVDA will move after earnings.
Typically, implied volatility (IV) expands before earnings (~90% of the time) and collapses for the nearest expiration immediately afterward.
Even IV on farther-dated expirations can continue to drift lower for a week or two post-earnings.
My Plan
Since I haven’t opened a time spread trade, I’m focusing on post-earnings setups.
If NVDA makes a huge move (breaking out of the 120–150 range), I’ll likely wait at least one more day before placing any new position to let open interest (OI) restructure.
April expirations will be more interesting for me after the dust settles.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 150usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-9-19,
for a premium of approximately $13.35.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
2/26/25 - $nvda - It's a buy into print...2/26/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:NVDA
It's a buy into print...
1/ "It's dot com 2.0"
A: dot com was consumer-first, AI is enterprise-first; dot com lacked infrastructure for years, AI has all the infrastructure required; dot com companies were memes, the largest AI companies generate piles of cash
B/ "but AI doesn't generate revenue"
A: you heard this low IQ meme on X? what if you're Meta and not hiring new engineers b/c AI systems are replacing your workforce? don't just look at revenue today, need to look at how AI is being deployed across the cost structure. the revenue for something like NASDAQ:META is actually coming thru better ad targeting (they're the best example of large-scale enterprise deploying AI today, there are many "bad" examples - sure), but the point is, don't just look at revenue. revenue will scale fast. but cost is just as important to the bottom line of "why invest"
C/ "msft is cutting across datacenter... leases... OMG"
A: they realized that there's a lot of dumb get-rich-have-too-much-QE-money-and-wanna-do-AI stuff getting built. so let's just "rent not own" at the margin. pretty logical. they're also realizing perhaps they need more than just OpenAI as a partner. logical. msft not going anywhere. Satya is no dumb cookie. he realizes many AI mkts will be winner take all and they're identifying those. massive oppty
...
My base case going into NVDA EPS this week was a beat/raise and stock either flat or sell off to find a trade-worthy floor deep-seek style. But we freaked out yesterday on emotions across the board. not saying we have "the event" that yet marks the bottom for risk assets, so long as we have yields floating reasonably high, inflation expectations not yet well understood (btw they're going lower, but the mkt thinks opposite at the moment) and a lot of toilet tweets that still move a skiddish tape. tons of value out there already.
so y'day i think we set up for a nvda beat, raise and stock actually holding up. while i've traded the name a lot, i don't have an outright position into print b/c i still prefer the NYSE:TSM trade to NASDAQ:NVDA all else equal. i think more upside on '25/'26... for a much cheaper price and the closest you get to moat. i'm also taking a flyer position on NASDAQ:MU which i think will be the USSA winner in HBM and multiples if i'm right are dirty cheap compared to fishing in the #3, #4... pond w stuff like NASDAQ:AVGO (too expensive ATM for me), NASDAQ:AMD (too much overhang awaiting next results, rangebound for now) etc. etc. i like NASDAQ:ALAB if you're playing high growth and reasonable multiple.
hope that helps. not much in the way of valuation for me here in this note for the print. this is more of a feel game for now. but in the scheme of things... NASDAQ:NVDA remains incredibly cheap. yup.
V
Nvidia Earnings Right Ahead! Nvidia (ticker: NVDA) is set to announce its Q4 FY2025 earnings results after the market closes today. The report will be for the full fiscal year and covers the period between 1 November (2024) and 31 January (2025).
As the last of the Magnificent Seven stocks to report, Nvidia’s earnings results are a widely anticipated market event. Heading into the earnings release, the Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index – represents an equal-weighted measure of Nvidia, Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Meta Platforms (META), and Tesla (TSLA) – dipped below the 10% threshold to indicate a correction. Furthermore, major US equity markets are on the back foot, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 down nearly 2% this month and crossing south of its 50-day simple moving average.
Analysts’ Estimates for NVDA Earnings
Nvidia has a consistent history of exceeding estimates and raising expectations. Wall Street forecasts Nvidia’s revenue will reach US$38.1 billion for Q4 FY2025, reflecting an eye-watering 73% year-on-year (YY) rise. Should actual revenue align with expectations, it would surpass the company’s Q3 FY2025 estimate (US$37.5 billion). Nvidia’s bottom line (net income) is also projected to climb to US$21.08 billion, up from US$12.84 billion in the same quarter a year prior. Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) is also expected to increase to US$0.84, which would mark a 62% YY rise.
Regarding current analysts’ ratings (Refinitiv), approximately 54% recommend a ‘Buy’, 37% a ‘Strong Buy’, and 9% suggest a ‘Hold’.
The options implied volatility for the stock suggests the company’s share price could swing 8% in either direction. However, I want to add that although heightened volatility is evident heading into the event, it is important to consider that implied volatility reflects how far options investors anticipate the stock price to move. Consequently, it is not always reliable and has, in the past, fluctuated as high as 16% and as low as 0.5% before NVDA earnings reports.
Blackwell Chip Supply Concerns
Concerns remain high over the Blackwell chip supply. If manufacturing issues regarding this are mentioned in today’s report and the share price drops, some investors may see this as a dip-buying opportunity, given that supply problems are likely temporary. This, coupled with limited evidence of a slowdown in demand, potentially positions the stock well for the future. Of course, while Chinese AI start-up DeepSeek recently carved out a dent in Nvidia’s share price, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang recently made the headlines, commenting that although DeepSeek’s R1 reasoning model is ‘impressive’, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space will still need to rely on Nvidia’s chips. I expect Huang to reiterate similar comments today.
Supporting Huang’s latest comments, it is worth acknowledging that all of the key US Hyperscalers – large data centres and cloud service providers that offer computing and data solutions – confirmed capital expenditures on AI data centres. Although Microsoft was recently thrown into the spotlight after reports from TD Cowen noted that it has started to cancel leases from some of its data centre capacity in the US, the company has since stated that they ‘will continue to grow strongly in all regions’. Microsoft also repeated that it would still spend US$80 billion on capital expenditures for the fiscal year.
What Do the Charts Say?
First and foremost, you will note that the stock has not done much this year and is currently trading at similar levels seen in June 2024.
The weekly chart, however, offers some interesting observations. The stock pencilled in an all-time high of US$153.13 at the beginning of the year and established the start of a double-top pattern that was recently completed (the neckline was breached, a horizontal line taken from the low of US$126.86). In addition, the pattern’s profit objective is still calling for attention to the downside at US$105.30.
Therefore, given the break of weekly trendline support and the double-top pattern’s downside target not yet being reached, I feel there is (technical) scope for a push lower to around the US$105ish region. If earnings do surprise to the downside, it will take a 16.7% drop to reach the said level!
NVDA EARNING DAY1Neutral to slightly bearish setup until earnings.
If it holds the channel support, there is a strong upside potential.
If it breaks down, a move toward 120 or lower is likely.
Earnings will be the key driver. If you are considering a trade, waiting for post-earnings confirmation is safer.
NVDA at a Pivotal Level! Reversal Incoming or More Downside?Technical Analysis (TA) & Price Action
NVIDIA (NVDA) has been in a clear downtrend, forming a falling wedge on the 1-hour timeframe, which is often a precursor to a potential reversal. The stock is approaching a critical support level near $124-$126, where buyers may step in.
Key observations:
* Trend Structure: NVDA remains in a falling wedge pattern, typically a bullish reversal formation if it breaks out.
* Support & Resistance:
* Major Resistance: $134 (previous breakdown level).
* Key Support: $124 (PUT support zone).
* Breakout Target: $138 - $143 if NVDA reclaims momentum.
* MACD Indicator: Slightly bearish but showing early signs of a potential crossover, indicating momentum shift.
* Stoch RSI: Approaching overbought conditions, meaning a relief rally could be on the horizon.
Options Flow & GEX Analysis
The GEX (Gamma Exposure) indicator signals significant PUT positioning at $120-$124, making it a crucial level for a bounce. A breakdown below this zone could trigger a gamma-driven sell-off, while a breakout above $134 could lead to a short squeeze.
* IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): 63.3, with IVx avg at 85.8%, indicating high volatility.
* Call Side Bias: 22.1% of options flow, showing some bullish positioning despite the decline.
* Key GEX Levels:
* PUT Wall & Key Support: $124 → Holding above could trigger a relief bounce.
* CALL Resistance & Upside Target: $138 → Breakout above this would confirm a reversal.
Trade Plan & Suggestions
📌 Bullish Reversal Setup (Preferred Play)
* Entry: Above $130 with confirmation.
* Target 1: $134
* Target 2: $138-$143 (Extended breakout target).
* Stop-loss: Below $124
📌 Bearish Breakdown Setup (Hedge Play)
* Entry: Below $124 with strong selling pressure.
* Target: $120 → $115 (Next PUT Wall).
* Stop-loss: Above $128
Final Thoughts
NVDA is at a make-or-break zone, with $124 as the key support level to watch. If it holds, we could see a sharp reversal toward $134+. However, breaking below could bring another leg down to $120-$115. Given the high volatility, traders should be prepared for sharp price movements.
📢 Risk Management: Use tight stop-losses and wait for confirmation before entering a trade.
🔹 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and manage risk accordingly before trading.
Why I am not bearish without confirmation on NVDAThis video is an overview on why I am currently still bullish on NVDA and NQ overall.
NVIDIA FLASHING WARNING SIGNALS ON THE 12 DAY CHART (2.25.2025)In this video, I go over the 12 day bearish divergence that is flashing on the Nvidia chart and why this could be detrimental for the next 12 to 18 months of price action for Nvidia stock
NVDA: Week of Feb 24thAs promised, here are my thoughts on NVDA.
Not advice, just my thoughts / opinions.
Thanks everyone and safe trades!
Nvidia (NVDA) Scalping & Mid-Term Analysis Market Overview
Trend: Strong Bearish 📉
Resistance: $128.83 → EMA 200 acts as a ceiling
Support: $126.00 → Short-term demand zone
Indicators:
MACD: Bearish momentum but flattening
RSI: 46.16 (Neutral), no clear reversal signal
VWAP: Below average → sellers maintain control
🩸 Risk: Upcoming earnings report tomorrow could trigger volatility
🔥 Scalping Strategy (5x Leverage)
🩸 Momentum Scalping:
Buy: Near $126.50–$127.00, targeting $128.50 (+1.2%)
Sell: Near $128.50–$129.00, targeting $126.50 (-1.5%)
Stop-loss: Below $125.90
🩸 Breakout Scalping:
Above $129.00: Long to $133.00 (+3.1%)
Below $126.00: Short to $124.00 (-1.6%)
🔥 Mid-Term Trend Forecast (1-3 Weeks)
Bullish above $130: If Nvidia beats earnings expectations, possible $135-$140 retest
Bearish below $126: If earnings disappoint, likely drop to $120
🔥 News & Market Context
🩸 Earnings Report Tomorrow → Nvidia’s Q4 results could cause a major move
🩸 AI Sector Sentiment: Bullish long-term, but short-term risk is high
🔥 Decision:
🩸 Short-term: Scalp long near $126.50, sell at $128.50+
🩸 Mid-term: Wait for earnings to define the trend
🩸 Ideal Play: Scalp bounces cautiously, big move expected post-earnings
👑 Final Verdict:
"Volatility is the playground of the prepared. Adapt or be left behind." – LucanInvestor
nvda moving forward after earningswe should be looking at a downside risk of ~105 and upside of ~155 upon this earning end of month, with next quarter moving toward 166, depending on global political tension between the world and the US, but anything further will be a wild guess because despite AI/robotics are the future, we are experiencing new domestic policies unheard of other than when USA was first established.
NVDA continues to dive deeper on Inflation etc. worries...LikelyOn lower times frames, there's a Gap at 120, so likely that's where she's headed...
$NVDA Earnings SetupNASDAQ:NVDA
Nvidia needs to absolutely dominate the market with both earnings and guidance. Last time they beat by 10% and sold off. Right now is a very difficult time in the market. Many tech companies are beating earnings, then selling off. Shay expects Nvidia to report strong earnings, however, he sees Nvidia having a pullback quarter but the timing is uncertain. As long as it holds the 200 MA, he remains in position. Nvidia has cemented its position in the AI and quantum computing thematics, with its CUDA platform and NVDL Link being essential for future workloads. Doubt remains though about lowered AI cloud workloads due to compute restraints. Demand is still way higher than supply, but questions remain surrounding easing of supply constraints and whether Nvidia has another leg left for exponential growth.
Here are our key levels to watch through earnings:
Under bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $114.
Over bullish trendline and $130.56, aim for $140.
NVDA Technical Analysis & GEX Options Setup for February 26, 202📌 Key Observations from the Charts
1. Market Structure & Price Action:
* NVDA recently broke down from 141-143, currently consolidating around 135.01.
* Support Levels:
* 134.27 (current price zone, short-term support).
* 129.08 (major support & put wall zone).
* 123-120 (critical gamma zone, could see acceleration if breached).
* Resistance Levels:
* 136.84 (POC, first resistance).
* 141.46 (VAH & key rejection level).
* If NVDA loses 129, expect a sharper decline to 123-120.
2. Volume Profile & Auction Levels:
* Point of Control (POC): 136.84 → Key resistance level that needs to be reclaimed for upside.
* Value Area High (VAH): 141.46 → Major resistance zone.
* Value Area Low (VAL): 134.27 → Must hold for buyers to prevent further decline.
3. Indicators Review:
* MACD: Bearish, downward momentum is still present.
* Stochastic RSI: Oversold, but no confirmation of a reversal yet.
🛠️ Options GEX Analysis
* Call Resistance:
* 145-150 → High gamma resistance, strong call walls.
* Put Walls & Support Zones:
* 129 → Highest Put Wall & Negative NETGEX Support.
* 120-118 → Strong Put Wall—if broken, NVDA could drop significantly.
* Implied Volatility (IVR & IVx):
* IVR 51.9 | IVx Avg 79.4 → Higher volatility, larger price swings expected.
* Call Positioning 23.7% → Weak bullish positioning, suggesting more downside risk.
📈 Trade Setups & Game Plan
🔴 Bearish Scenario (Preferred Setup)
🔹 Entry: Short below 134 confirmation.
🔹 Target 1: 129.08 (Put Wall Support).
🔹 Target 2: 120-118 (Put Wall Breakdown Level).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Above 138 (invalidates breakdown).
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Buy PUTS 135/125 expiring 1-2 weeks out if breakdown confirms.
* Debit Put Spread (Bearish 135P/120P for risk control).
🟢 Bullish Scenario (Less Likely)
🔹 Entry: If price reclaims 138-141, targeting 145+.
🔹 Target 1: 141.46 (POC, first resistance).
🔹 Target 2: 145.00 (major resistance).
🔹 Stop-Loss: Below 134 invalidates upside move.
🔹 Options Strategy:
* Sell 120/115 Put Credit Spread for a bounce play.
🎯 My Thoughts & Suggestions
* Main Bias: Bearish, unless 138+ is reclaimed.
* Gamma Risks: Below 129, strong gamma exposure can push NVDA lower quickly.
* Options Play: Puts look stronger based on GEX positioning & technical weakness.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please do your own research and consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
NVDA | $100 supportNASDAQ:NVDA update on how price action is looking like compared to the last post. We mainly saw price stalling out around $120 after the gap was made, and then a anticipation for movement back to resistance.
After analyzing how buyers did over time we expect more strength in sellers as buyers lost a bit of steam and also created lower highs.
Could imagine a selloff back to $100 then a quick move back up to resistance once again.
A bit too soon to tell but will keep an eye out.
