TeslaTimeframe: D
The price slightly missed the most probable target but showed a strong reaction at the golden ratio. I assume this asset is already in the bear market phase.
#TSLA
TSLA trade ideas
Bounce or Sustained Rally-Either will be Sufficient Tesla chart on weekly and daily timeframe. Bounce is likely incoming, at best a sustained rally.
Effective inefficiencyStop-Loss. This combination of words sounds like a magic spell for impatient investors. It's really challenging to watch your account get smaller and smaller. That's why people came up with this magic amulet. Go to the market, don't be afraid, just put it on. Let your profits run, but limit your losses - place a Stop-Loss order.
Its design is simple: when the paper loss reaches the amount agreed upon with you in advance, your position will be closed. The paper loss will become real. And here I have a question: “ Does this invention stop the loss? ” It seems that on the contrary - you take it with you. Then it is not a Stop-Loss, but a Take-Loss. This will be more honest, but let's continue with the classic name.
Another thing that always bothered me was that everyone has their own Stop-Loss. For example, if a company shows a loss, I can find out about it from the reports. Its meaning is the same for everyone and does not depend on those who look at it. With Stop-Loss, it's different. As many people as there are Stop-Losses. There is a lot of subjectivity in it.
For adherents of fundamental analysis, all this looks very strange. I cannot agree that I spent time researching a company, became convinced of the strength of its business, and then simply quoted a price at which I would lock in my loss. I don't think Benjamin Graham would approve either. He knew better than anyone that the market loved to show off its madness when it came to stock prices. So Stop-Loss is part of this madness?
Not quite so. There are many strategies that do not rely on fundamental analysis. They live by their own principles, where Stop-Loss plays a key role. Based on its size relative to the expected profit, these strategies can be divided into three types.
Stop-Loss is approximately equal to the expected profit size
This includes high-frequency strategies of traders who make numerous trades during the day. These can be manual or automated operations. Here we are talking about the advantages that a trader seeks to gain, thanks to modern technical means, complex calculations or simply intuition. In such strategies, it is critical to have favorable commission conditions so as not to give up all the profits to maintaining the infrastructure. The size of profit and loss per trade is approximately equal and insignificant in relation to the size of the account. The main expectation of a trader is to make more positive trades than negative ones.
Stop-Loss is several times less than the expected profit
The second type includes strategies based on technical analysis. The number of transactions here is significantly less than in the strategies of the first type. The idea is to open an interesting position that will show enough profit to cover several losses. This could be trading using chart patterns, wave analysis, candlestick analysis. You can also add buyers of classic options here.
Stop-Loss is an order of magnitude greater than the expected profit
The third type includes arbitrage strategies, selling volatility. The idea behind such strategies is to generate a constant, close to fixed, income due to statistically stable patterns or extreme price differences. But there is also a downside to the coin - a significant Stop-Loss size. If the system breaks down, the resulting loss can cover all the earned profit at once. It's like a deposit in a dodgy bank - the interest rate is great, but there's also a risk of bankruptcy.
Reflecting on these three groups, I formulated the following postulate: “ In an efficient market, the most efficient strategies will show a zero financial result with a pre-determined profit to loss ratio ”.
Let's take this postulate apart piece by piece. What does efficient market mean? It is a stock market where most participants instantly receive information about the assets in question and immediately decide to place, cancel or modify their order. In other words, in such a market, there is no lag between the appearance of information and the reaction to it. It should be said that thanks to the development of telecommunications and information technologies, modern stock markets have significantly improved their efficiency and continue to do so.
What is an effective strategy ? This is a strategy that does not bring losses.
Profit to loss ratio is the result of profitable trades divided by the result of losing trades in the chosen strategy, considering commissions.
So, according to the postulate, one can know in advance what this ratio will be for the most effective strategy in an effective market. In this case, the financial result for any such strategy will be zero.
The formula for calculating the profit to loss ratio according to the postulate:
Profit : Loss ratio = %L / (100% - %L)
Where %L is the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
Below is a graph of the different ratios of the most efficient strategy in an efficient market.
For example, if your strategy has 60% losing trades, then with a profit to loss ratio of 1.5:1, your financial result will be zero. In this example, to start making money, you need to either reduce the percentage of losing trades (<60%) with a ratio of 1.5:1, or increase the ratio (>1.5), while maintaining the percentage of losing trades (60%). With such improvements, your point will be below the orange line - this is the inefficient market space. In this zone, it is not about your strategy becoming more efficient, you have simply found inefficiencies in the market itself.
Any point above the efficient market line is an inefficient strategy . It is the opposite of an effective strategy, meaning it results in an overall loss. Moreover, an inefficient strategy in an efficient market makes the market itself inefficient , which creates profitable opportunities for efficient strategies in an inefficient market. It sounds complicated, but these words contain an important meaning - if someone loses, then someone will definitely find.
Thus, there is an efficient market line, a zone of efficient strategies in an inefficient market, and a zone of inefficient strategies. In reality, if we mark a point on this chart at a certain time interval, we will get rather a cloud of points, which can be located anywhere and, for example, cross the efficient market line and both zones at the same time. This is due to the constant changes that occur in the market. It is an entity that evolves together with all participants. What was effective suddenly becomes ineffective and vice versa.
For this reason, I formulated another postulate: “ Any market participant strives for the effectiveness of his strategy, and the market strives for its own effectiveness, and when this is achieved, the financial result of the strategy will become zero ”.
In other words, the efficient market line has a strong gravity that, like a magnet, attracts everything that is above and below it. However, I doubt that absolute efficiency will be achieved in the near future. This requires that all market participants have equally fast access to information and respond to it effectively. Moreover, many traders and investors, including myself, have a strong interest in the market being inefficient. Just like we want gravity to be strong enough that we don't fly off into space from our couches, but gentle enough that we can visit the refrigerator. This limits or delays the transfer of information to each other.
Returning to the topic of Stop-Loss, one should pay attention to another pattern that follows from the postulates of market efficiency. Below, on the graph (red line), you can see how much the loss to profit ratio changes depending on the percentage of losing trades in the strategy.
For me, the values located on the red line are the mathematical expectation associated with the size of the loss in an effective strategy in an effective market. In other words, those who have a small percentage of losing trades in their strategy should be on guard. The potential loss in such strategies can be several times higher than the accumulated profit. In the case of strategies with a high percentage of losing trades, most of the risk has already been realized, so the potential loss relative to the profit is small.
As for my attitude towards Stop-Loss, I do not use it in my stock market investing strategy. That is, I don’t know in advance at what price I will close the position. This is because I treat buying shares as participating in a business. I cannot accept that when crazy Mr. Market knocks on my door and offers a strange price, I will immediately sell him my shares. Rather, I would ask myself, “ How efficient is the market right now and should I buy more shares at this price? ” My decision to sell should be motivated not only by the price but also by the fundamental reasons for the decline.
For me, the main criterion for closing a position is the company's profitability - a metric that is the same for everyone who looks at it. If a business stops being profitable, that's a red flag. In this case, the time the company has been in a loss-making state and the size of the losses are considered. Even a great company can have a bad quarter for one reason or another.
In my opinion, the main work with risks should take place before the company gets into the portfolio, and not after the position is opened. Often it doesn't even involve fundamental business analysis. Here are four things I'm talking about:
- Diversification. Distribution of investments among many companies.
- Gradually gaining position. Buying stocks within a range of prices, rather than at one desired price.
- Prioritization of sectors. For me, sectors of stable consumer demand always have a higher priority than others.
- No leverage.
I propose to examine the last point separately. The thing is that the broker who lends you money is absolutely right to be afraid that you won’t pay it back. For this reason, each time he calculates how much his loan is secured by your money and the current value of the shares (that is, the value that is currently on the market). Once this collateral is not enough, you will receive a so-called margin call . This is a requirement to fund an account to secure a loan. If you fail to do this, part of your position will be forcibly closed. Unfortunately, no one will listen to the excuse that this company is making a profit and the market is insane. The broker will simply give you a Stop-Loss. Therefore, leverage, by its definition, cannot be used in my investment strategy.
In conclusion of this article, I would like to say that the market, as a social phenomenon, contains a great paradox. On the one hand, we have a natural desire for it to be ineffective, on the other hand, we are all working on its effectiveness. It turns out that the income we take from the market is payment for this work. At the same time, our loss can be represented as the salary that we personally pay to other market participants for their efficiency. I don't know about you, but this understanding seems beautiful to me.
Tesla Daily Update : Fib Golden ZoneTesla’s daily chart shows a correction after a strong uptrend, with the price around the 200-day MA at $279.80. It’s now inside the "Golden Zone" (Fibonacci support between $261.48 and $218.34), a key area for potential support. The RSI at 34.39 indicates oversold conditions, suggesting selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion. Despite the recent decline, a bullish case can be made as the price approaches the "Golden Zone," a historically strong support area, combined with an oversold RSI. If TSLA holds above $261.48 and volume picks up, it could bounce back toward the 200-day MA at $279.80, offering a favorable setup for buyers.
TSLA: what you think is a bad time to invest...It's actually an opportunity. A second chance really, to get Tesla under $300. You wanted it at this price less than a year ago and you won't touch it today at the same price? And if you say a decrease in EV sales is the reason you won't, then you're lost and need to go look at technical analysis for Apple
Tesla your time now, LONG Tesla's time has come for long.. Now the price will go up... There might be little more spike down or not.. But in max 5-7 working days price will increase..
No fundamentals no technicals.. pure something else..
My posts are not trading or investment advises. Do your own analysis. I am not responsible for your losses.
$TSLA Short - Weekly TFAbout to pose the 50-Day HMA. Looks to be rolling over on multiple timeframes. Fundamentally, while nothing seems out of sorts—other than car batteries setting on fire and locking passengers inside—I think some political circumstances will change things imho.
Price target 260I believe tsla is headed to 260 that is where we have support against longterm uptrend.
nfa.
thanks
$TSLA Technical Analysis... 2/28/2025!
After reaching the expected target for wave (c), which was predicted to match wave (a), the current decline likely represents wave (d). This decline could continue to 61.8% of wave (a) at $262. If a rebound occurs at this level, it may signal the beginning of a new upward trend, with wave (e) potentially equaling wave (a) at $539
Let's see how it plays out!
NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA
Tesla (TSLA) at a Critical Level! Will This Bounce or Break Down📊 Technical Analysis (TA):
1. Trend & Structure:
* TSLA remains in a clear downtrend, confirmed by multiple BOS (Break of Structure) signals.
* Recent ChoCH (Change of Character) suggests a temporary range-bound phase before further downside or a potential reversal.
* Key Resistance: ~290-300 (prior BQS level)
* Support Zone: ~273-275 (critical liquidity zone)
2. Indicators:
* MACD & Stochastics show weakness, confirming bearish momentum.
* Volume spikes suggest institutional interest, but it's mainly on down moves, reinforcing bearish bias.
🔹 GEX & Options Flow:
1. Call Walls (Resistance) 🚧
* 300-310: Heavy resistance, potential rejections.
* 350: Second major call wall, unlikely to reach unless a strong rally occurs.
2. Put Walls (Support) 🛑
* 270: Strong put wall, may act as a floor for a potential bounce.
* 250: Highest negative NETGEX, which means a gamma squeeze could push TSLA further down if this level breaks.
3. IV Rank & Skew:
* IVR 89.7, indicating high implied volatility.
* IV skew positive, meaning puts are being favored over calls.
* Calls only 21.8%, suggesting market bias is bearish.
📌 Trading Plan & Suggestions:
* Bullish Scenario:
* A reclaim above 290-300 could trigger a short squeeze toward 310-315.
* Calls or spreads with April expiry could benefit from a bounce.
* Bearish Scenario:
* Breakdown below 270 could open a flush to 250, where puts would see exponential gains.
* Ideal Put Play: Buy March-April 270P or 260P targeting 250-260.
⚠️ Key Warning: If TSLA holds 270, a sharp bounce is possible due to put covering.
🔥 Conclusion: Big Move Coming for TSLA!
Tesla is trapped between strong put support (270) and overhead resistance (290-300). The next few sessions will decide if this bounces or heads straight to 250. Options flow favors downside, but gamma unwinding could cause short-term reversals.
Watch price action carefully before making a move! 🚀📉
🚨 Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.
If you are living in a TESLA Bubble, the HYPE is over...Some countries across of the world, specially in Europe, some people are vandalizing Teslas, google it, it's not being covered on mainstream news so it won't provoke an influence to other people do the same, i was going to buy the new Y model its beautiful and amazing, not anymore i don't want a swastika painted on the hood... used Teslas are mounting and prices of used Teslas are falling worldwide, the stock has been super overvalued due to hype, look at the market cap, no longer has a reason to stay there, the hype is finished, this stock is going for big correction. Im not in a short position, but i closed my longs. Elon should never got into politics.
the MA200 looks very enticing, considering consolidationMany indicators could factor in, but surprisingly enough, it's found an area where it can make a move at the bottom of the barrel. Fundamentals are ready to reboot; a critical note is the 200. Now, a favorite of many hedge funds, everyone focuses on it and could consolidate here for a while before the breakout.
TSLA Still have room to go lowerTSLA is still have a bit room to go lower but i hope i can get a nice swing trade after it hits the target support
$TSLA - Can 200DMA hold?NASDAQ:TSLA My pain trade. 🤣 It is currently supported by 200DMA. If that support fails we are looking at the first gap close around $257 area. 👀
TSLA: Down 44% – Is This the Bottom?Tesla has been absolutely crushed since hitting its all-time high at $485. A 44% drop isn’t shocking after such a huge rally, but it’s still a brutal move. Now, we’re back into support, sitting near the level of Wave 1 – so far, nothing completely out of the ordinary.
Maybe to counter some of the selling pressure, Elon Musk tweeted yesterday that he sees a 1000% price increase in the next five years – if the work is put in. Take it however you want. The tweet probably gave TSLA a short-term boost, since Musk’s words always spark some level of hope. But we’ve seen this game before – big claims, and sometimes, reality doesn’t follow through.
Technically speaking:
As long as Tesla holds the order block between $240 and $260, or at least the current support, things don’t look too bad. But if that level breaks, things could get ugly – and $150 might not be far off.
For now, this remains one to watch.
TSLA’s Next Big Move: Collapse or Skyrocket? Key Levels to WatchTesla (TSLA) is approaching key price levels that will determine its next move.
Potential Downside:
-If TSLA drops below $297, the next level to watch is $292.
-A break below $292 could lead to $283.
-If $283 fails, the price may drop significantly toward $222.
Potential Upside:
-If TSLA reverses, it could rise back to $384.
-A breakout above $384 could push it to $431 and beyond.
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Kris/Mindbloome Exchange
Trade Smarter Live Better
Tesla Stock $TSLA monthly imbalance. Bullish price action to buyTesla Stock NASDAQ:TSLA monthly imbalance at $273 has taken control. Bullish price action to buy shares of Tesla stock. Expecting a decent reaction for this stock in the following days. You can use smaller timeframe stock strategies, bullish option strategies and intraday stock strategies to trade this imbalance.
TSLA Updated analysis and some short term trade ideasI got filled exactly where I expected price to find some support - at the bottom of our white HTF controlled selling algo which you can see from the past is a very intentional algorithm. I got shares filled at the 173/180 levels and plan to unload those fairly soon (215/220) as I do not see this recent selling as controlled at all and therefore am not looking for a larger HTF breakout back to the 3/400's. But considering I am long shares right now - that is just the trader in me making profits where I strongly anticipated a bounce. Same thing on AMD which I will share in an upcoming video.
Happy Trading :)
Charging Toward Highs!Tesla has recently demonstrated bullish momentum, with a notable gap forming around the $280 level, indicating renewed investor interest. This technical setup suggests the potential for a significant upward move, with the stock eyeing the $373.04 weekly resistance level as a pivotal point. A successful breakout above this threshold could propel TSLA toward the $414.50 resistance, offering an attractive risk-to-reward ratio for investors.
Why TSLA Could Accelerate to $414.50:
Technical Indicators: TSLA's current price of $292.98 is approaching the 50-day moving average of $300.04, and a sustained move above this average could signal a bullish trend continuation.
barchart.com
Analyst Insights: Analysts have identified TSLA as a potential rebound candidate for 2025, noting its inclusion among stocks that could recover after previous declines.
Financial Performance: In the third quarter of 2024, Tesla reported revenues nearing $3.5 billion, with a net income of $238 million and an Adjusted EBITDA of $503 million, reflecting robust operational performance.
Strategic Initiatives: The company's recent pricing of $700 million in senior notes due 2030 indicates a strategic approach to strengthening its capital structure, potentially supporting future growth initiatives.
Key Levels to Monitor:
Support: $280 (gap level), $249.99 (stop-loss)
Breakout Trigger: $373.04 (weekly resistance)
Target: $414.50 (major resistance)
If TSLA maintains its bullish momentum and decisively breaks through the $373.04 resistance with substantial volume, it could be on track for a significant rally toward $414.50. However, investors should remain vigilant, as the stock's current price is below key moving averages, and market conditions can change rapidly. Implementing a stop-loss at $249.99 is advisable to manage potential downside risks.
NASDAQ:TSLA
Update - Tesla Bears in trouble Update to my previous post... Not too late to buy - you don't want to miss this next move
TSLA at a Major Turning Point! Key Reversal or Breakdown? Mar.3📊 Technical Analysis (TA) for TSLA
* Current Price Action: TSLA is recovering from a downtrend and has entered a reversal zone, breaking out of a descending channel. However, it's facing strong resistance near $298-$300.
* Key Levels to Watch:
* Resistance 1: $298-$300 (Volume Profile POC) – A critical area where sellers may step in.
* Resistance 2: $310 (3rd Call Wall) – Breaking above this could trigger a gamma squeeze.
* Major Resistance: $320-$337 – Strong rejection expected if price reaches this level.
* Support 1: $290 (Volume Value Area Low - VAL) – A pullback could test this before another move up.
* Support 2: $280 (Highest Negative NetGEX / Put Support) – A breakdown below this level could accelerate selling.
* Breakdown Level: $273 – Losing this level could send TSLA toward $250.
📌 Indicators:
* MACD: Bullish crossover, suggesting momentum may continue upward.
* Stochastic RSI: Overbought near 96, signaling a potential pullback before another move.
🔎 Options Flow & GEX Analysis
* GEX (Gamma Exposure) Key Levels:
* 80.77% Call Resistance at $310 → Breaking above could fuel upside momentum.
* 67.72% 2nd Call Wall at $350 → Strong gamma resistance, unlikely to break in the short term.
* Highest Negative NetGEX / Put Support at $280 → If TSLA stays above, dealers will hedge bullishly.
* 3rd Put Wall at $273 → A breakdown here could lead to increased downside volatility.
* 2nd Put Wall at $250 → Below this, expect a sharp sell-off.
📌 IV & Sentiment:
* IV Rank (IVR): 72.8 → High implied volatility, options are expensive.
* IVx Avg: 84.3 → Elevated, indicating large expected price swings.
* Options Sentiment: Calls = 33.8% → Some bullish bias but not extreme.
📈 Trade Scenarios & Strategy
📌 Bullish Scenario (Breakout Play):
* Entry: Above $300 with strong volume.
* Target: $310, then $320.
* Stop Loss: Below $290.
📌 Bearish Scenario (Rejection & Breakdown):
* Entry: Below $290.
* Target: $280 or $273.
* Stop Loss: Above $300.
🔥 Final Thoughts & Suggestion
* TSLA is testing a key reversal zone. A breakout above $300-$310 could push it toward $320+.
* If it fails to hold $290, expect a retest of $280-$273, which is a major support zone.
* Volume and options flow will be key – if gamma levels start unwinding, expect volatility to spike!
🚨 Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only. Trade responsibly and manage risk! 🚨
