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WIG (Warszawa, PL) to Gold (in ounces), 1M (Heikin-Ashi)Dear Everyone, Today, one more time I present the wide index in Warszawa (PL) in relation to Gold prices (of an ounce). Of course, the price is using monthly candles with Heiki-Ashi preparation. So, there is presented bigger timeframe. As we could see, there is a real possibility to buid an inverse Head-&-Shoulders pattern. But, we will see, what future will bring to us. The prices in Warszawa could stay in relation to Gold at current levels even to March or May. But the chart seems to be very promising for the second half of the year and next year. However, we need to keep in mind as there is also other element: Gold prices. Let's remember that when we have (now) the time of real positive interest rates (read as: cash shortage), there is a question if the prices of Gold would be only higher and higher - IMHO that's slighthly controversial thesis. As always, with best regards to you all, Paweł
GPW:WIG
by PawelHodurek
WIG - Resistance becomes supportGreetings to you all! I decided to mix journalism and technical analysis in this post. I will describe the last 20 years of price action in Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG), laying out the market structure and how it was shaped by key geopolitical events. Keep reading till the end, because the key message is that decade-long resistance level might have become a support zone, and Polish stock prices could be well-positioned for future growth. Warsaw Stock Exchange Index (WIG) has declined during 2008 financial crisis, after reaching all time high of 67,772 PLN. This price level created a resistance that scared off any early advances and pushed away subsequent rallies. 2017 and 2021 brought 2 attempts that failed to break above the resistance. The first rally did not quite have the momentum required to push the price higher, and the buying power vanished over the next 2 years. 2020 brought crisis and a steep decline in price, which was followed by a quick recovery through 2021. Price managed to close above ATH during July - December period of 2021, but it was short lived. Rising interest rates in 2022 and high inflation growth over the last 12 months resumed the pessimistic tone markets have followed in the aftermath of the covid pandemic, resulting in price falling back below the resistance, which remained intact at 65K - 75K PLN level. It is important to mention that 2021 rally changed the character (CoC) of the established market structure post 2008 crisis, because price closed above ATH and set a higher high. Now, if I consider a local market structure of 2020 - 2024, I can clearly see a basic uptrend pattern of Higher High > Higher Low > Higher High, which is confirmed by both MACD and RSI indicators on monthly chart. Collectively, the 2020-2024 price impulse broke above the decade long resistance, which may now act as support, but, if you're a careful observer, you would notice that this happened as well in 2021. Why this time is different? Because consider the broader economic context, and you'll also notice that in 2024 inflation is seemingly under control (though above the target rates). Moreover, central banks kept the interest rates pretty much flat in 2022, and some even proceeded to cut them, lifting capital restraints affecting companies. Hence, overall picture for WIG looks quite optimistic. It gained 27% in the last 12 months, broke above strong resistance, and it did so by establishing an uptrend price impulse. Meanwhile, Polish currency appreciated by ~5% against dollar and rose to #6 economy in Europe as of 2023. It grew twice as fast as top 5 economies both in 2023 YoY and during 2020 - 2023 period. I guess I will add some WIG to my portfolio, it looks good to me. But you decide for yourself, I'm not a financial advisor and this is not a financial advice. Thanks for reading this post.
GPW:WIGLong
by VovaNapas
Tracking waves correctionsDuring one of the webinars (unfortunately it is no longer available to the public) I came across the idea of tracking wave patterns and corrections after such patterns, where the wave pattern consists of a long wave preceded by 2 short waves. I have implemented this solution and according to it, the WIG has a 50% chance of returning to the level of 52 120 already in the 1st wave and 63% to the 3rd wave (which is more or less within 1 day). And down to 51,800 23% chance in 1st wave and only 39% chance in 3rd wave. I cannot wait the results.
GPW:WIGShort
by Investor_R
7
WIG/Gold (1M, Heikin Ashi) - still in downtrendDears, Polish wide market from different point of view. We are still in downtrend. However, here we have two different variables... The second one is a Gold price. When there is a problem with inflation, gold price mostly (in more than 80% cases) is going up. However, the current inflation is rather unique (mostly cause of energy price reason) and there is completely no guarantie if the price of golg would sustain it's increase when interest rates are still being increased. IMHO, the gold price would increase in shorter term rather than longer. The energy prices should moderate the market cash float, especially when the interest rates would still being increased. With all the best, Paweł
GPW:WIG
by PawelHodurek
WIG (Warszawa, PL) - global view on wide market.Hello, Today we have a global view on the condition of Polish wide market (WIG) in Warszawa (Warsaw, PL). The bottoms are accordingly the global 11-years economic cycles. The 11-years cycles do have their origing from the Sun. The Sun affects the whether and climate in many different ways. Not only by the quantity of visible light (and radiation in general). Sun creates also the magnetic field which also influences the storm creation in the Earth's atmosphere. Of course, we have also smaller subcycles. What to expect? We could be at the creation of local minimum of the subcycle. And the local minimum we could reach before the end of Atumn. As previous 11-years cycle was not very efficient for emerging markets, there could be the change. There is also the question on the Ukraine, however, before the end of Atumn we should know much more in which direction it comes. As much as you buy this and next year, could be your working capital since 2024. Best, Paweł
GPW:WIG
by PawelHodurek