4-hour timeframe technical analysisThe current 4-hour chart shows that after breaking above the ascending channel’s upper boundary at $25.30, the price faced selling pressure and retraced, forming a classic false breakout trap. Key indicators reveal multiple bearish confirmations:
StochRSI cyclical divergence: While prices hit a new high at $25.80, StochRSI peaks declined sequentially (85 → 78 → 72), signaling weakening bullish momentum.
MACD double-top structure: The histogram shows consecutive shrinking peaks, with the MACD lines flattening above the zero line, raising risks of a bearish crossover.
Abnormal volume distribution: Breakout volume only reached 63% of prior highs, creating a low-liquidity "fake rally" trap.
Harmonic pattern implication: The current pullback may represent the BC leg of a Bat pattern, with a potential D-point at $23.46 (0.886 retracement of XA).
Critical mid-term levels:
Bullish defense: The 23.46 zone (weekly EMA21 + daily volume gap) and 22.80 (4-hour 200MA + Fibonacci cluster) form a dual support band.
Bearish trigger: A breakdown below 22.80 would activate a TD Sequential 9-count, opening the door for a deeper correction to 21.50 (Q4 2023筹码密集区 / high-conviction trading range).
Pivot timing: Based on 4-hour Heikin-Ashi candles, a sustained close above $24.20 (50% retracement) by Friday’s New York session would validate the bullish Butterfly pattern.
Swing trading strategies:
Conservative: Close short positions at 24.50 and initiate longs at 23.46.
Aggressive: Place limit orders at 23.50 (upper edge of support), with a stop-loss at 23.00 and a target of $26.80 (1.618 extension).
Position validation: Add leverage if the 4-hour RSI breaks its descending trendline (currently capped at 58) during rebounds.
On-chain confirmation:
Nansen data reveals $4.7 million in institutional limit buy orders clustered near the 23.50 zone, strongly aligning with technical support. However, traders should remain cautious about volatility spillover from BTC and keep position risk exposure within 5%-8%.
