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HONG KONG DOLLAR / SWISS FRANC

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HKDCHF trade ideas

CHFHKD ShortIn this analysis, I will be discussing the possible short opportunity in the CHFHKD Pair. It appears to me that the greater trend has been completed, and we an a,b,c correction take place. My first reason supporting this is that we have broken out of the trendline for the greater impulse structure and rejected it before sharply moving downwards. Similar to how the wave A was sharp, I anticipate a sharp wave B also. This is because there was a triangle in the wave B, and the retracement for the wave B wasn't much. (Max 0.382 of the waveA) In the wave principle book, the guidelines of the zigzag mention how the typical retracement for the wave B zigzag is somewhere between 0.382-0.5 of the wave A, and although we haven't hit the lower boundary exactly, I think we have came close enough to qualify this as a correct count. Since the wave B appears to be a triangle, and the triangle always appears at the end of a move, this move can not be labeled as the 1-2 of a zigzag. A break above the 8.4825 would discredit my wave count entirely. The target for the wavecount is the wave 4 of the larger impulse wave, which is anywhere from the 8.39456-8.38127. I am leaning more towards the 8.39 target since the wave C's are occasionally less quick and steep than the wave A. I am unsure of what to make of the Mika K time prediction technique for this zigzag. I have decided that the end of the wave B is .768 of the entire wave. I believe this because the wave B of a zigzag is typically the longest part of the zigzag. This is because the wave B is a corrective move, and corrective moves are defined by their choppy and time consuming characteristics. The wave A and C are both impulsive, meaning they are a lot quicker. I anticipate that the wave C takes a bit longer than the wave A to form, and that it'll be done by around 3 in the morning tomorrow.
Short
by Mika_k
ChfHkd Short opportunityI am not picking a top. While I am posting this there is no guarantee that we have hit the top, but I believe we are near the top. As the analysis shows, we appear to be finishing wave 3 of the higher trend. My reasoning behind this being a wave three is as follows. Wave 3 of this wave is not the shortest. It is a 5 wave move, making it impulsive. We see alternation between the waves 2 and 4. Wave 2 appears to be a sort of combination. It does not look like a 3 wave move, but instead a seven wave move, which is indicative of a combination. My guess would be a double zigzag. In addition to this, wave 2 has appeared to take some time to complete, much longer than the wave 4. The wave 4 is a lot shorter and appears to be a simple zigzag. Although this doesn't break the rules, some might argue that this ignores the guideline of wave personality, where wave 4 is typically longer. My argument against this is that the momentum of this 3rd wave has picked up quite a bit. This is common of extened waves, and results in the corrective waves being a lot smaller. I would argue that there was a large amount of bullish momentum that stopped this wave short. We can also see this proven by the incredble amount of volume on the bottom of the 4th wave. My only concern is that the wave 5 of 3 isn't done yet. There appears to be a lot of bullish momentum behind this move, and I only clearly see a wave 1-2-3 for the wave 5. The wave 4 and 5 still need to be defined. There is a scenario where the top has been put in, and this is confirmed by the Mika K time technique, but that will be explained later. Confirmation that this is a top of 5 will be that we break out of the current channel we are in. Mika K time technique The basis behind my time technique for impulse waves, is that the wave 4 will subdivide the impulse in price and time. Through my own findings, I have learned that the end of the fourth wave, means that the total impulse is 0.768 completed. My concern is that, I am unsure of where the end of wave 4 truly is. If it is the low we have seen at 17:00 on april 7th, then the time technique confirms the idea that what we have arrived at now is the end of the wave. If the end of wave 4 is the low on april 7th at 8:30, then the wave 5 has a bit more distance to go, and I hypothesize it ending at 17:00 on april 8th. (The time is just a coincidence, 17:00 is not a significant number) If it were to continue higher, I see the top being the 8.440 range. This is the 3.619 of the wave 3's wave 1, and also the 3.618 of the original wave 1. I predict that once the top is in, we will see a relatively quick wave 4, since the larger term wave 1 was incredibly long and complex. I expect the wave 4 to retrace down to the 8.375 area. Worries: My worries with this interpretation lie with the elliottwave guideline of the right look. If this is the wave 3, it is incredibly large compared to the wave one. This might be a mistake in my counting and something I will have to consider once price action gives me more information to work from. I hope to gather more information about the correlation between the 4th wave and the total time until the completion of the impulse wave from this example.
by Mika_k
Bullish on CHFHKD. Yay!Seems to be a pattern now with some of the CHF/Asian currency pair now. It is true that impulses are generally much easier to trade, and we certainly have an impulse here that I believe is not yet done. That means up if you are just starting out. Goals are in green, invalidation in red. And ofcourse, as always, do not take anything I say, including this update, as financial advice. I may be scoring 70-75% success on my predictions, but this does not mean you should listen to what I say. In any case, do you own research always!
Long
by Rykin_Capital