Warning was given to the greedy investors in ChinaRead this latest article here
It appears that ample notice was given to greedy investors who bought excessive properties to turn around for quick profits and were caught with huge debts as the share price of this big property firm starts to collapse...........
From 2009 to 2017, the share price was moving sideways, pretty boring and lack a strong buying reason. Then, it went up almost 90 degrees within a short period of time, 2017 and causing the CCP to make statements that properties are for living not for speculation. They must know how bad the situation are with all the data collected - listed companies debts, mortgages of its people, bank interest rates, number of uncompleted buildings, etc. The supplies are simply way over the demand........
Is it possible for an important sector like real estate that contributes a major % of China's GDP to be replaced by other sectors ? With no strong stimulus from the Government to provide more assurance support, I do not see how these big boys can come out from the dark. They are still heavily in debt and holds plenty of unbuild, partial completed buildings.......
From an investor point of view, I will wait out though several tier 3 cities developers are offering properties like selling cabbage . Watch video here
Unless you have lots of spare cash and are parking some at these properties to wait out the tide to turn, the video shows low employment opportunities in these backward cities. Can one possibly consider living in these places for long term when basic amenities are not fully equipped? Much more research need to be done than simply drawn to the ridiculously low price.
2007 trade ideas
Would you dare to buy Real Estate Stocks in China?WIthout the government stimulus, I think many of the Chinese Developers would go bankrupt....
Country Garden, the largest developer in China has peaked in 2018 at 18+ dollars and todate, it has dropped more than 97% of its share price to recover at a miserable 2.83 dollars. Financially, it is still on very shaky grounds as no one knows how long is stimulus would last. There are still many unresolved problems internally and externally. A large percentage of over hang and uncompleted projects in the entire China is still happening, probably creating a loss of confidence amongst investors.
On the other hand, the zero Covid policy has also been a catalyst as well. Without able to get out of the house or return to office as normal, many things remain uncertain. Why would someone want to park their money in real estate when things appear so murky at this moment ?
Thus, I think sales would take a fairly long time to recover and for investors confidence to return.....
Country Garden Holdings Country Garden Holdings in the double zigzag
The next Chinese construction company to fail will be Country Garden
Rebound is around the corner for Chinese developersLast week we discussed the scenario of Hong Kong/China equity rebound due to the political environment change in China. HSI did end up close above the May open, creating a hammer candle in the monthly chart, and stood atop the 50 days moving average. Both showed strong bullishness from the chart perspective (Last week note here: )
As a continuation of the rebound story, earlier there were some developments on the Chinese developers front, which there might be a distress revaluation opportunity for traders to make bets on .
Update on Chinese Developers
After almost 2 years since the Chinese government imposed “3 red lines” rules on developers, which later leaded to the Chinese high-yield bond collapse in 2021 (majority of Chinese high-yield are issued by the Chinese developer), on May-17 the Chinese government finally showed sign of relaxation on the crackdown, by supporting some developers to issue domestic bond to ease their cash insufficiency . This development is under the backdrop of Chinese economic slowdown, as well as poor monetary/fiscal policy transmission capability with weakened property market.
As of today, there are 5 non-state-backed developers that have confirmed on the domestic bonds issue:
Longfor (HKEX:960)
Country Garden (HKEX:2007)
Media Real Estate (HKEX:3990)
CIFI Holding (HKEX:884)
Seazen (HKEX:1030)
Note that investors of the newly issued bond also have the option to get protection by purchasing the credit risk mitigation warrant (CRMW), of which China Securities Finance Corporation (state-owned) is the underwriter of the warrant . The important message here is that, in order for the Chinese government to take a “short-put” position, they must have vetted the Chinese developer names and shortlisted the above 5 companies for the most solid fundamentals (and political correctness). Essentially, the Chinese government is doing stock picking for us .
Among this batch of developers, I would recommend Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007) . In the sector-wide distressed situation, companies with more deployable cash or financing capability actually have the optionality to acquire and consolidate weaker developers to strengthen their future market share. Longfor and Country Garden are the largest and healthiest financials among the list.
Comparing Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007), the former actually have demonstrated stronger confidence among investors as one can tell from the severeness of price decline for the passed year. Hence if you are a less active investor who wants to buy this idea, go for Longfor (HKEX:960); for those who have the bandwidth for active management, Country Garden (HKEX:2007) might have more room for trading around positions with leverage.
Trading Plan for Country Garden (HKEX:2007)
Albeit the fact that I am writing a long side execution plan, please note that the stock technically is still in a bear trend, which we still see selling pressure near 20 and 50 days moving average . Hence this is not a trend following, but reversal-plus-breakout play, where more time is needed for the turnaround and breakout from the downtrend resistant levels .
Right now the stock is flirting around the 20 days moving average. One might want to place some protective bet at current level (in case of sharp upside movement with overnight news), or wait for the following 2 key level for turnaround confirmation:
5.4-5.8 : 50 days moving average and May-3 spike
6.75 : Rebound peak from March market plummet
For the bearish trend to continue, the stock must go through the 2 recent troughs. According to the trader’s conviction to the rebound stock, one might choose to scale in (i.e. average down the position cost) or scale out (i.e. partial cut loss) the position at these levels:
4.1 : May-12 bottom
3.3 : Mar-16 bottom, lowest price made in march market plummet
In terms of trading vehicle selection, apart from holding the stock outright, good news is that Country Garden (HKEX:2007) also has stock options available for trade. By using call option one can be immune from sharp drawdown in case of overnight bearish news, also better cash management for the natural leveraged nature of options. Note that Hong Kong listed stock options are less liquid compared to those in the US, I would recommend to choose expiration less than 3-4 months for narrower spread and more active quotation .
Country Garden Announces H1 2021 Financial ResultsDuring the six months through June, the company generated CNY 234.9 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 27%.
According to Country Garden's H1 2021 financial announcement:
- Revenue rose by 27%, reaching CNY 234.9 billion.
- Gross profit hit CNY 46.3 billion (up 3.1%), and the gross profit margin was 19.7%.
- Net profit was about CNY 22.4 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.3%.
- Among the company's major businesses, its sale of properties recorded CNY 227.9 billion in revenue, reporting an increase of 26.6% and accounting for 97% of total revenue. The revenue from providing construction services was CNY 4.1 billion, made of 3% of total revenue; rental income hit CNY 374 million and other income was CNY 2.5 billion.
- During the reporting period, the sales amount of the company's equity contract was about CNY 303.1 billion, showing an increase of 14%; the area of contracted sales of equity properties hit approximately 34.5 million square meters, representing a growth of 8%.
- As of June 30, the firm covered 31 provinces, 296 prefecture-level administrative regions and 1,408 districts and counties in China, with a total of 3,127 projects.