Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 5th WK OCT 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 5th WK OCT 2024
> BULLISH 📈 HIT
Prior Week Closed Price: 253.32
This Week Target Price: 254
Strike Price: 257.71 on OCT 30, 2024
Upper Range: 258.17
Lower Range: 250.97
2840 trade ideas
Portfolio diversification - 5-10% in GoldWe can see from the long term monthly chart that it took more than a decade for the prices to go from low of 98 to 184 before it finally broke out in March this year. The price has been rallying non-stop thus far and I believe we have yet to see the peak yet.
Some investors like physical gold while others prefer digital gold. I am of the opinion that central banks worldwide has jumped on the bandwagon of printing money to sustain their own economy. China is now on this mission to shore up its weakening economy and US is definitely going to print more.
More debts mean more interest for the government to pay off which will weaken the reputation of US dollars over time. When enough people feel US dollar is weakening (as it is now), then they would want a safe haven to park their money. Gold for centuries has been labelled as a safe haven to hedge against inflation.
One must have a longer time frame to invest in this alternative asset and not expect to make quick returns in a year or two. Central banks worldwide have shore up more gold than before , just google it.
With pull backs , I would want to accumulate more.
Gold vs Commodities: Monitoring Relative Strength in Hard AssetsIntroduction:
The commodity sector spans various areas, including energy, agriculture, livestock, and metals. However, focusing on the most promising areas can lead to more effective investment strategies. One key ratio to monitor is gold AMEX:GLD versus a broader commodities basket (DBC). This ratio is especially relevant for those interested in hard assets, as it highlights where strength lies in the commodity space. Currently, this ratio favors gold as the stronger performer.
Analysis:
Relative Strength: The GLD-to-DBC ratio offers critical insights into the relative performance of gold versus other commodities. Gold has been outperforming the broader commodity basket, indicating its resilience as a hard asset.
Technical Pattern: Earlier this year, the ratio broke out of a rounding bottom pattern, signaling a bullish trend in favor of gold. Even before this breakout, the trend was clear through a series of higher highs and higher lows, reinforcing the strength of gold relative to other commodities.
Gold’s Performance: Gold remains near its all-time highs, while other commodities continue to lag behind. This highlights gold’s resilience in the face of broader market uncertainties.
Conclusion:
Gold’s resilience compared to other commodities makes it a standout performer in the current market environment. The recent breakout in the GLD-to-DBC ratio and the continued pattern of higher highs and higher lows support the bullish case for gold. Traders focused on hard assets should monitor this ratio closely to gauge potential shifts in strength. What’s your outlook on gold versus other commodities? Share your insights below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the GLD-to-DBC ratio, the rounding bottom pattern, and the higher highs and higher lows trend)
Tags: #Gold #Commodities #HardAssets #GLD #DBC #TechnicalAnalysis
Weekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Cup and Handle Price Target andWeekly Analysis of Gold ETF GLD: Current Bull Trend Following Cup and Handle Formation
Introduction
The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has emerged as a pivotal investment vehicle for those seeking exposure to gold, especially amidst ongoing economic uncertainty. A thorough technical analysis reveals a significant cup and handle formation that developed from 2001 to February 2024. This bullish pattern has now led to a steep upward trend in GLD, signaling continued momentum for investors.
Cup and Handle Formation
The cup and handle formation is a classic bullish pattern indicating a strong potential for price appreciation. In GLD's case, the handle is approximately 50% of the height of the cup, resulting in a robust setup that has propelled the ETF into a sustained bull trend following its breakout in February 2024.
Volume Analysis
Volume behavior is a crucial component of the cup and handle pattern. During the cup formation, volume displayed a strong U shape, reflecting robust buying interest. A decrease in volume during the handle phase indicated healthy consolidation. The subsequent heavy breakout volume in February confirmed the strength of this bullish movement, validating the upward trajectory of GLD.
Measuring Target
To project potential price targets, we can measure the height of the cup and apply it to the breakout price. The calculated target suggests a price level of $278.51. Additionally, Fibonacci projections provide confirmation for this measurement. The 1.272 Fibonacci extension level indicates a price target of $282.08, which closely aligns with the previously calculated cup height target. This convergence of targets reinforces the bullish outlook for GLD, indicating a strong potential for continued upward movement.
Trading Strategies
The pink trendline on the chart serves as a crucial support level. Monitoring price action around this trendline is essential for traders. A breakout below this level would signal the end of the current bull trend and may lead to a trading range followed by a potential correction. Conversely, maintaining support above this trendline will be vital for sustaining the upward momentum.
As we navigate this bull trend, it’s important to be mindful of potential market corrections. Before entering any short positions, traders should look for confirmation signals, such as a test of previous highs, which may result in a lower high, a higher high, or a double top formation. A breakout below the pink trendline alone is not sufficient for short-selling decisions; a clearer indication of a reversal is needed.
One critical area to watch is the 0.618 Fibonacci projection level, which previously acted as a significant resistance level before becoming support. A pullback to this level is anticipated, representing a potential correction in the GLD price. Additionally, the correction may find support at the blue trendline, which connects the lows of the cup and handle formation.
Potential Catalysts and Seasonal Trends
A significant catalyst for market correction could be the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, particularly if Donald Trump wins on November 5, 2024. Trump’s previous presidency was characterized by substantial stock market gains, often attributed to policies that fostered economic growth and stability. His commitment to end the conflict in Ukraine may further boost investor confidence, creating a conducive environment for market corrections.
Timing remains crucial for any investment strategy. The end of December typically sees increased gold prices due to the holiday season, and this trend continues into the Chinese New Year. Investors should be aware that these seasonal factors can lead to upward momentum for gold in the near term. However, caution is warranted, particularly as the market may experience corrections after these seasonal peaks.
Conclusion
As GLD currently navigates a steep bull trend following the breakout in February 2024, investors should closely monitor critical levels and potential price targets. A strong breakout below the pink trendline could signal a shift in market dynamics, leading to a trading range and potential correction. In contrast, maintaining support above this trendline will be crucial for sustaining upward momentum.
Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant for key developments, especially surrounding the upcoming election and seasonal trends, as these factors may significantly impact the gold market. Those looking to act should carefully consider the timing of their trades, aligning them with technical signals and fundamental events to maximize potential gains.
In summary, adopting a well-informed approach that combines technical analysis with an understanding of fundamental developments will be essential for successfully navigating the current market dynamics associated with GLD.
GLD - Inverted head and shouldersInvesting in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) offers several long-term benefits:
1. **Inflation Hedge**: Gold historically performs well during periods of inflation, protecting against the decline in currency value.
2. **Safe-Haven Asset**: Gold is often seen as a refuge during economic or geopolitical instability, making GLD an attractive option for risk-averse investors.
3. **Diversification**: Gold’s price movements tend to be uncorrelated with stocks and bonds, which can help reduce portfolio volatility.
4. **Liquidity**: GLD is traded on major stock exchanges, offering high liquidity and ease of trading compared to owning physical gold.
5. **Cost Efficiency**: Owning GLD is cheaper than holding physical gold, as it avoids the costs of storage and insurance, with an expense ratio of 0.40%.
6. **Historical Performance**: GLD has demonstrated strong returns, with a year-to-date return of around 27% as of 2024, and a 10-year average return of nearly 9%.
7. **Timeless Value of Gold**: Gold has been a reliable store of value for centuries, and remains relevant as a hedge against modern market volatility.
These reasons make GLD a solid choice for long-term investors looking to mitigate risk while benefiting from gold’s enduring value.
GLD: Short-Term Weakness, Long-Term OpportunityGLD is showing weakness today, confirming that the strong upward trend is now in a phase of consolidation or temporary correction. This phase could present interesting entry points, but in the short term, the acceleration of the declines and the shift of previously bullish indicators to neutral signals suggest a cautious approach is warranted.
AMEX:GLD Key Indicator Analysis:
Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) at 43.60: This is in neutral territory, indicating that GLD is not yet oversold, but the weakening momentum signals the lack of immediate upward pressure.
Stochastic %K (14, 3, 3) at 23.02: While close to the oversold threshold, this oscillator is still neutral, hinting that the current decline might not have fully exhausted selling pressure.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI 20) at -213.86: A clear "Buy" signal, as this extreme negative value suggests the possibility of a rebound. However, it must be considered within the context of broader market conditions, which remain weak.
Average Directional Index (ADX 14) at 26.06: Indicates a lack of strong trend direction. This suggests that the consolidation phase could last longer, and a strong trend (either up or down) is not yet established.
Momentum (10) at -4.10: This "Buy" signal indicates that selling momentum may be fading, but the bearish MACD (-0.73) contrasts this, suggesting the potential for further declines before any meaningful recovery.
Moving Averages: Most short-term moving averages (Exponential and Simple) are indicating "Sell" signals (10, 20, 30 days), reinforcing the bearish sentiment in the near term. However, the longer-term moving averages (50, 100, 200 days) remain in "Buy" territory, supporting the notion of a broader upward trend that is currently in a correction phase.
Conclusion:
Aggressive Traders: Those looking for short-term opportunities may consider selling intraday rebounds. The weak oscillators and bearish moving averages in the short term indicate that the downside risk is present. These traders can aim for quick, short-duration trades, betting on continued price drops before stabilization.
Strategic Traders: More patient, strategic traders can observe how deep this correction phase goes. The extreme CCI value, along with the longer-term bullish moving averages, suggests that GLD is in a corrective period within a larger uptrend. Waiting for a clearer signal of the correction’s depth could provide an attractive buying opportunity with the expectation of new highs before the year-end.
In summary, GLD is in a period of caution as the short-term indicators turn neutral to bearish, while long-term signals suggest this is a temporary consolidation phase.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading and investing involve risk; always conduct your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.
Golds Super Wave 2.0Gold's incredible symmetry on this Monthly view of GLD begs the question : Is 2005-2011 the dress rehearsal for our 2018-2025 Super Wave 2.0
GLD too stretched... time for some pullback Gold bugs/bulls are running too fast, time for some quick pullback soon.
GLD and Oxy inverseThis is why I am short GLD and long oil, a combo of oxy being undervalued, and crude being oversold. As the market absorbs this rate cut I expect pumps from oil and dumps from gold.
Summary:
Put spreads on Gld
Call spreads on Oxy
GLD rejection soonGLD looks like it might reject this golden fib soon here on overheated price action. People have flocked to gold the last several months as recession fears grow. I believe the market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, when we get 50, risk will increase and GLD will drop. I believe this will be a brief correction.
-Price target 223-229$
GLD - 1M - Cup and HandleGold reached a new record high this week, surging to $2,578/oz amid a weaker dollar and declining bond yields.
This spike followed economic data hinting at more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve ahead of next week’s interest rate decision.
With a decade-long cup and handle pattern forming on the monthly chart, a measured move could potentially see gold climb another 18%.
GLDGold consolidating. Looking like it wants to breakout here.
Trade Idea: 235C 10/11/24
Stop loss around 230.
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Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 3rd WK AUG 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 3rd WK AUG 2024
> BULLISH 📈 CORRECT
Prior Week Closed Price: 231.99
This Week Target Price: 233.66
Strike Price: 234.01 on AUG 20, 2024
Upper Range: 236.72
Lower Range: 230.59
$GLD short term top? Buy the dip at $177 or lower?AMEX:GLD looks like it's putting in a top here. While I do think commodities have started longer term bull trends, I think if we see a big move down in risk assets, commodities won't escape the bearish move.
I think it's likely that we reverse from this level and find support somewhere between $177-169 region.
However, I'm not ruling out the possibility of a larger move down. Supports on the charts.
After we see a major correction, I'll look for long-term entries as I think that move down will start the next bull run.
$GLD Breakout and Option Strategy Spotlight with Overlay
It looks like GLD 0.44%↑ finally broke out of its sideways-upward channel on Friday. Time to explore some opportunities using our Options Overlay indicator on TradingView.
The current IVR is at 84, while the 62 DTE average IVx is only 19.9, making this IVx level exceptionally high for gold over the past year. On the daily chart, the Gold ETF is trading between the 6/8 and 7/8 levels. The options chain shows that calls 62 DTE are about 130% more expensive, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market.
Examining the standard expected move (STD1), even at 4 DTE, the upside target is 237 (7/8), with the downside at 6/8. The delta curve shows the 16 delta OTM call trending upwards toward the 8/8 level, which aligns with the 250 level. Given this, I would caution against buying single-leg calls at such inflated prices. A pullback could dramatically reduce their value, and time decay will work against you. If you're determined to go bullish, a simple CALL butterfly offers a better risk-reward ratio!
GLD Bullish strategy - if we are expecting rising IV
Assuming further IV increases (IVx rose by 2% over the last 5 days despite a drop in VIX and a rise in the underlying), a CALL calendar spread presents a solid R:R setup.
The Options Overlay quickly highlights the optimal expiry dates to target: Sep 20-27. I noticed a 4% volatility skew between these dates. The standard expected move (STD1) and delta16 suggest an upward probability range capped at 245, meaning there's an 86% chance that AMEX:GLD stays below this level by Sep 20.
Here's my setup in this case: GLD Sep 20th - Sep 27th 245 Calendar Call Spread.
This spread, spotted in under a minute on TradingView, offers nearly 8x risk-reward, but it's beneficial only if you're betting on continued IV increases.
Gold flaggingBullish flag, I'll buy some calls expiring in two months from now. You can also check NYSE:NEM is doing a similar bullish flag. Strike 225
GLD long setup around $214-15I dowse stocks and did a reading on GLD, so want to journal it here. The levels are often good, but sometimes the order they hit is confused.
What I believe I'm getting is that GLD drops to the $214-15 area, which, coincidentally includes a gap area. I did ask how high this goes and I got $318ish but not till next year. I also have a date of the 5th to watch for something. Dates are often reversals, or can be days with large moves. It may be that it reaches the target around $225-26 around then, as that's what I was asking for. I just don't always get the exact answers for what I'm asking, but the date could still end up valid.
Gold: A Strategic Asset in an Uncertain WorldGold's appeal as a safe-haven asset has been reinforced by recent geopolitical tensions. This analysis explores the factors driving gold prices, including geopolitical risks, economic conditions, and the role of gold ETFs.
Gold has proven its resilience as a safe-haven asset during times of uncertainty. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have fueled demand for gold. While economic factors also influence gold prices, the metal's role as a portfolio diversifier remains compelling. Consider gold ETFs for convenient exposure.
Gold serves as a valuable safe-haven asset, particularly during times of geopolitical instability.
Key Points:
Geopolitical Risks: The article highlights the increasing geopolitical tensions globally and their impact on financial markets. The Middle East, in particular, is identified as a region of significant concern.
Gold as a Hedge: Gold's unique characteristics, such as liquidity, store of value, and diversification benefits, make it an effective hedge against geopolitical risks.
Economic Factors: While geopolitical factors are emphasized, the analysis acknowledges the influence of economic conditions, including interest rates and inflation, on gold prices.
Investment Vehicles: Gold ETFs, like the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD), are presented as convenient options for investors seeking gold exposure.
Gold's Rise Adjusted for the Money SupplyThe chart on the top shows the price of gold adjusted for the Money Supply.
The chart at the bottom shows the price of gold over time.
Compare and contrast the two and you see a valuable fact. Actually, this is something we should all do more often with our favorite symbols – compare and contrast them to the growing money supply.
Meaning, while gold is hitting all-time highs in nominal terms (chart at the top) it actually is underperforming in a drastic fashion relative to the growth of the money supply happening all around us. In many respects, this is a super important method of repricing assets based on the expansion, growth, and proliferation of the Dollar.
This is often why tech, new products, and innovations win out more than assets like gold. For example, the smaller chart to the right of both charts shows NVIDIA and Apple priced for the expansion of the Dollar. Both assets are still at all-time highs. In-fact, Bitcoin is also near or at all-time highs, although its chart is not nearly as "enormous" as it looks at a nominal level.
There's a lot to unpack here and I'll have to share soon.
Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK JULY 2024Expired GLD Weekly outlook. 2nd WK JULY 2024
> BULLISH 📈 CORRECT
Closed Price: 220.93
Target Price: 223 | Strike Price: 224.15 on JULY 11, 2024
Upper Range: 226
Lower Range: 221
215 target bearish Sell off from D legMonitoring the Gold trust, I see exhaustion on the 4hr and Daily chart of gold trust $gld. From D leg, l99king for a min retrace to 215 with the stochastic rsi showing overbought conditions, looking for bearish sentiment through the bearish cloud ..
H&S top in $GLD?GLD seems to be forming a head and shoulders top here with the right should shallower than the left (a very classic pattern). Should this break down here, I think we're likely setting up for a top in GLD.
The technical target for the breakdown would be the $200 level, but after looking at the chart on larger timeframes, I think this could be a more mid-term top (over the next 6-12 months).
I've marked off key levels to the downside should the pattern break down.
GLD - Head and Shoulders Top?GLD is at the neckline of a well defined head and shoulders top. A breakdown would see GLD at 200.
