SHORT GLD / LONG BTCThe definition for safe haven says: It is a financial instrument that retains or even increments its value during periods of financial turmoil. Certain characteristics that a safe-haven assets have: liquidity, limited supply, and functionality. In the last years, I have heard many debates between gold and bitcoin followers. Let's see the charts:
GLD reached its peak in September 2011, and it has lost 46.13% of its value in December 15'(approximately 1560 days). On the other hand, BTCUSD reached its peak in December 17'. It has lost 84.27% of its value in December 18' (approximately 364 days). It is too early to call BTC a safe-haven asset. Its very volatile, and it loses its value faster and in big proportions than GLD. The last example was of this was reflected during the last weeks when the vireus had outbreaks in Italy and other parts the world. GLD lost 14.46%, while BTC lost 62.89% of its value.
1. When I analyze the liquidity part of the equation, BTC has an advantage. Bitcoin's technology (blockchain) makes it easy for people to transfer money around the world. It can be easily converted in U.S dollars, Japanese yen, Peruvian Sol, etc. Diversely, gold could be very tedious to convert into cash.
2. One of the main characteristics of a safe-haven is its limited supply. Both GLD and BTC meet that requirement.
3. The last characteristic is its functionality. Safe-haven assets must have a use that will maintain long-term demand. I personally think BTC has an advantage on this one.
The GLD charts shows a broken uptrend channel. Price has re-tested support level. This may suggest GLD may see new lows in the coming days/weeks.
On the other hand, BTC price action has formed a symmetric triangle. Price has touched an important monthly demand zone. The more times a zone is touched, the more important it becomes.
LONG BTC
SHORT GLD
We will see!
