gold vs btcheld the monthly, looking for the short bounce here back to 170 range, keep yall posted. seems easy enoughw ith the current macro outlook
2840 trade ideas
Potential Major Gold Bottom in NovemberGold sometimes has seasonal bottoms in the Noverber to December time zone.
There's also a 20 - month cycle that could bottom in November 2022.
Gold could trend down to the .618 retracement of the bull move that began in 2016.
If Gold can reach that price zone in November 2022, a major bottom could form.
GLD - ShortI'm watching the 156 and 160 level. If GLD fails there, it could be heading back down towards the bottom of the channel.
gold spot on bearish momentumbased on weekly chart, we saw a break and retest of a support at level 1700.38 dollars, these means that we are on the sell side market and our target is at 1500.89 us dollars
GLD: Sandbox ⛱After the hard work of finishing wave iv in magenta, we expect GLD to play a bit in the yellow sandbox between $150.72 and $140.40, all the while completing wave (4) in yellow. Then, it should get down to business again – or rather get up to business, as we expect GLD to climb northwards, crossing the resistance at $171.23. There is a 35% chance, though, that GLD could rise above this mark directly and without amusing itself in the yellow sand.
Gold Order Flow - Bears Rule The MarketHey traders,
Yet again, the OFA script clearly show we should not be meddling with the affairs of the bears, side fully in control of the price action in the Gold market.
Let the flows, identified via the formation of fractal-based structures, determine the path of least resistance. As usual, credit where is due (Bill Williams). The script simply makes it visually easier to call these trend, which otherwise would be seemingly hard to continuously identify through manual analysis.
Be reminded, when applying the OFA script , it has 2 main components to study:
Magnitude: A major clue that will help determine the health of a trend is the type of progress by the dominant side in control of the trend. We need to ask the following question: Are the new legs in the active buy-sell side campaign as identified by the script increasing or decreasing in magnitude?
Velocity: When it comes to the distance the price moves, the magnitude is only ½ the equation. The other ½ has to do with the velocity of the move or the speed. Was the new leg created after a fast and impulsive move? Or did price make a new low or high with the movement being sluggish, compressive and taking too long to form? A good rule of thumb is to count the number of candles it took to achieve a new leg.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Gold gonna tankGold lost support and with Europe going into a recession while central banks raise rates, it's a horrible combination.
I think it tanks
GLD: Warm-up 👟GLD is warming up in the lower magenta-colored zone between $152.85 and $159.20, where it still has some room left to finish wave iii in magenta. Afterwards, it should jump up into the upper magenta-colored zone between $163.39 and $171.23 to complete wave iv in magenta, before sliding into the yellow zone between $150.72 and $140.40, where the overarching downwards movement should end. There is a 40% chance, though, that GLD could decide to rise earlier already and thus could directly climb above the resistance at $171.23.
$GLD Positive Momentum DivergencePositive price divergence with MACD and RSI indicators. Playing long to the upside of the falling wedge channel, roughly coinciding with the 50-day MA.
Does Inflation Hurt the Value of Gold? Channel Down. Not looking like a buy point for me.
But why?
Gold does not generate a yield. If interest rates continue to rise and you’re holding gold, you’re forgoing the interest income you could earn on dollars if you put them in a bank account or invest them in bonds. Maybe that’s why rising interest rates tend to create headwinds for gold. Dunno.
The markets expect the Fed to fight inflation with more rate hikes, thus decreasing the appetite to hold holding gold. Maybe? This is just one of many hypotheses.
I am not sure but I check it every so often.
It appears Gold is moving with the market for now like the coins are. Gold is having some short term buying opportunities here and there, only to go back down when the market does
another somersault.
"Even based on the government’s flawed CPI, inflation rose by about 7% in 2021"
A random economist.
No recommendation.
“Gold is money. Everything else is credit.” – J. P. Morgan
GLD ready to riseGLD got beaten up for years. Expecting a small little spike down to 154/155 and then climb. Inflation and high rates are here to stay. Why would GLD not rise?
$GLD Gold looks good for a bounceI went long debit spreads this morning on GLD, looking for mean reversion to 21DMA at the least
Technically bulls have stepped in right where they needed to prevented further breakdown and defending the 157 zone support line that's played as a major pivot zone for 2+ years now.
Quick move to $162 is first PT
GLD is repeating the same bullish setup it had in March 2021Recently GLD has followed a set of movements which have an uncanny resemblance to what happened in 2021. The last time this set of movements happened, it was bullish and returned around 13% in a month. This is combined with a strong support level at ~$158, a bullish inverted hammer on the previous bar, and two recent doji stars, which indicate that the downtrend may be weakening, and so I'm bullish overall on GLD, with the idea in mind that the trend will reverse.
I am going long at around $159.3 a share, with a profit target of 5.51% to the nearest resistance level, with a tight stop loss at around 2%.
$GLD ends on an inside month at a weekly supply zoneNice bounce area for gold as it hits this weekly supply area on a month that didn't break July's highs or lows.
GLD 4 hour EW wave count4 hour GLD has recently finished the 5 wave and is in the b wave of the abc correction. Look for upside to the high of wave IV soon.
GLD: Cooling off 💦It is still summer, so no wonder GLD wants to refresh itself in the upper blue zone between $163.03 and $160.17, into which it has leaped so enthusiastically that we have to wipe droplets of water from our faces, watching the chart. Here, GLD should now finish wave (ii) in blue before resuming the overarching upwards movement. However, as part of our secondary scenario, there is a 40% chance that GLD might need more refreshment and thus could jump below the support at $158, diving into the lower blue zone between $159.23 and $152.88. There, it should then do a lap to complete wave alt.(4) in yellow before rising again.
Go GoldLooks like a time for correction. Two scenarios based on 50% and 61.8% retracement basis. Stop loss placed at 157.
GLD at an interesting price level. GLD at an interesting price level. Possible squeeze incoming off 157 support level.
Offering a good risk reward for longs.
A similar support level seen on VXX.
#GLD approached massive horizontal support zoneGLD ETF has reached a significant horizontal support level which has been in play for over 2 years now. Will we get another bounce off this level? Also interesting that this support is intersecting at the weekly 200ema. Not a bad risk reward to try play a reversal off this significant support as your risk can be quite limited
A bearlish scenario for Gold Gold faces many obstacles, but recession fears could help...
The gold market tumbled $40 Thursday and briefly fell below the $1,700 an ounce level as markets began to price in an oversized 100-basis-point rate hike from the Federal Reserve at the July meeting.
Rate hike expectations were quickly re-priced after the latest U.S. inflation numbers shocked the markets, with the annual CPI number coming in at 9.1% and the yearly PPI rising 11.3% in June.
Before inflation data, markets were looking for a nearly 100% chance of a 75-basis-point hike at the Fed's July 27 meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, within 24 hours after the numbers were released, the expectations shifted to an 80.9% chance of a 100-basis-point hike. This would take the fed funds rate to a range of 2.50%-2.75%.
"Only yesterday morning, the market had just finally priced in a full 75bp rate hike in July for the first time. In a few hours, an above-consensus U.S. CPI reading and a surprise 100bp rate hike by the Bank of Canada changed the whole picture again. After these two events, markets have moved to seriously consider a 1.0% rate increase by the Fed in two weeks," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING.
The Bank of Canada surprised the markets with a 100-basis-point hike on Wednesday, warning that inflation will remain elevated for the next three months.
"The Bank of Canada made the leap into triple-digit hikes shortly after the U.S. CPI release, acknowledging in the process that it had underestimated inflation since Spring last year," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA.
Gold blessed chartAs you can see, the monthly has created a beautiful cup and handle; this is why we must long. The breakout is about to happen. Enjoy the ride.
$GLD short ideaThe Dollar is breaking out causing foreign currencies to fall under pressure. The Euro continues to breakdown and the Japanese Yen as well. This is putting pressure on commodities such as Oil and Gold.
$GLD is breaking down through supports, targets to the downside are 158, 155, and 150. Possible round trip to Covid lows. Hang on tight Peter Schiff!
OptionsSwing Analyst
Daniel Betancourt
