89988 trade ideas
BABA AnalysisPrice falls short of filling the fair value gap at 79.79 before going lower. Price has taken the liquidity at 59.25 after a bearish market outlook in China, from here, the long-term trend should be downwards until we see signs of recovery. I'm expecting price to make a bullish retracement into the bearish POI at 70.52 before continuing lower.
$BABA (Alibaba Group Holdings): Price Action & Technical Analysi"What, I asked myself, was the value of examining company reports, studying the industry outlook, the ratings, the price earnings ratio? The stock that saved me from disaster was one about which I knew nothing. I picked it for one reason only - it seemed to be rising."
Nicholas Darvas
To be fair, on his road to make 2 million dollars from trading stocks, Darvas ended up adopting a techno-fundamentalist approach.
However, firstly his fundamental approach was significantly less intricate than you might think ... he was not filtering his tradable stocks based on price to earnings, price to book or other classical fundamental metrics. Instead, he just tried to ascertain whether that company had an exciting, game-changing product that could spark the imagination of the masses or alike qualitative judgements.
Secondly, at the very least, Darvas was well aware that the core of his strategy was intimately reliant on volume and price analysis with his famous box theory.
Enron's accounting dept hand in hand with top notch auditing companies can deceive you. Accounting standards enable creative accountants to portray blurry pictures ... the price, on the other hand, cannot lie.
Even if there is a manipulation campaign behind the price's action, eventually, the price must trend from A to B, otherwise the manipulator does not get paid.
If the insiders are buying ... and trust me, they will know a lot more than you about that company, the price will have to show. When they buy, they leave a footprint. Learn how to track it!
Link in bio for 10 chart analysis with bullish and bearish scenarios.
BABA weekly bearish hammer at local highBABA weekly bearish hammer at local high closing below MA 100. Stop loss above local pivot.
BABA daily indecision continuation wave 5 downtrendOrder SELL BABA NYSE Stop 73.61 LMT 73.61 will be automatically canceled at 20230401 01:00:00 EST
BABA daily indecision continuation wave 5 downtrend can run into monthly support zone and retest of weekly downtrend line
BABA MOMENTUM POSITIVEWeekly Chart - BABA
I am taking an interest in BABA here. It has been in a steep correction for well over a year and appears to have made a bullish wedge. What really has my attention is not only the price breakout above but also the momentum break. I may leave myself a little room and time here but I personally may take a heavier interest if it stays this cheap or drags sideways.
These patterns are great for trading the spikes but there are no guarantees. It's not uncommon to see a large spike up (15-30%) only to correct and go nowhere for weeks or months. A breakout does not guarantee profit.. but for me the reward outweighs the risk in this zone.
Let's see what happens.
Ali Baba Makes Aladdin SaneTerrible day on the China markets. Ali Baba almost down to an all time low. 100% retracement incoming.
BABA 6/19/2022BABA Daily Chart Analysis
This one is not looking good for buyers.
End of October 2020 saw BABA reach all-time high around 319. This was the last time price saw this high.
By Mid November 2020, price dropped and fell below the 50ema. This was very important because the 50ema was acting as Dynamic Support throughout the entire previous uptrend. This signaled weakness and possible end of uptrend for BABA.
By January 2020, price had fallen to 221. That was more than a 40% drop from the all-time highs back in October 2020.
At 221, price found Support and bounced. The bounce up failed to make a higher high and price found Resistance at 269.
At this 269-resistance level, price was shot back down to support level at 221. Price now finds itself in a sideways range between 221-269 and this marks the end of the Uptrend for BABA.
At this time, we also saw a Death cross, 50 ema crossing below the 200 ema. This further signaled the bearish conditions for BABA.
In May 2021, price broke down from this sideways range. The range has now been deemed a Distribution stage. BABA is heading towards a downtrend.
Breaking down from support level at 221, BABA entered a Downtrend on July 2020.
So far, the downtrend has taken the price from 221 all the way down to 79.80. That’s almost a 65% drop.
The current downtrend has ben using the 50ema as Dynamic Resistance and so far it has given us 4 entries to enter trade short.
Every time the price has pulled back to the Dynamic resistance and the Stochastic has gave us an Over-bought signal, that’s been our signal to enter trade short.
When in a downtrend, if price pulls back to Dynamic Resistance, and we have Stochastic Over-bought signal…..we enter trade short.
Downtrend + Pullback to resistance + Over-bought Stochastic = Short entry
Price currently finds itself at dynamic resistance from a pullback and the Stochastic is overbought. This is entry #5 to enter trade short.
Will be entering trade short.
Entry: 102.24
Stop loss: 128
Target: 59.10, +41.92%, 1.63 RR ratio
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development .
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
BABA Set To Go Bye-ByeThe break below key support (ORANGE) 76.29 points to lower levels in the days ahead.
This was a textbook example of a stock in a downtrend failing at resistance. It was a solid level to initiate shorts or even Short Call Spreads.
$BABA how far will it drop$BABA overall indicates a bearish momentum on the daily chart. Though it has formed a downward wedge, it still has time to continue to fall before change of momentum to bullish. Question is, how far will it go before a turnaround to the upside. On Trendsi Indicators; Overall momentum is showing bearish, with red EMA (middle band), money momentum (white line) trading under with a sell signal. 3 indicators showing a bearish momentum. But we all know how the market can change up Ina blink of an eye. Will definitely monitor and keep you guys update.
$BABA Can Go Up Watch Out For A BreakoutTraders and Investors, Alibaba (BABA) has completed the typical bubble stock M formation and is now trying to gather orders for a bullish momentum. This stage happens when most investors fall into Despair or hopelessness.
The earnings report is expected, and we have a wedge pattern. If the price breaks above the pattern and we get a confirmation, this can go the first target of M patter which is around 160 but with an intermediate target of approx. 132.
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Rules:
1. Never trade too much
2. Never trade without a confirmation
3. Never rely on signals, do your own analysis and research too
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Take care and trade well
-Vik
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📌 DISCLAIMER
The content on this analysis is subject to change at any time without notice, and is provided for the sole purpose of education only.
Not a financial advice or signal. Please make your own independent investment decisions.
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Charlie Munger said Alibaba has bottomed out ......I will wait for a few more days , assess the bullish candles before adding more....
BABA DailyAlibaba stock is approaching an attractive area. Maybe it will give traders a good profit in this range.
BABA 9/23/22 Long Swing Update BABA has broken out of mini wedge and has begun to make its way up to the resistance zone between $86.55 and $87.84. We are currently 50% in profit on contracts (BABA $105 Call Exp Dec 16, 2022) entered on 9/23/22 and are making our way to first target ($90). I would take partial profits at resistance zone and look to add at the formation of the first higher low before the big break of the larger wedge.
Stay tuned for updates...
Alibaba (Baba) on Weekly Demand ZoneAlibaba on weekly demand zone, also its forming falling wedge pattern, RSI forming exaggerated divergence
2 areas to watch for entry point are 75 zone and 58.5 zone
Targeting the gap on 148-161 zone
Mid term trade set up
Alibaba probably near “bottom”. 19/Oct/22As Alibaba previous long term impulsive move was a “leading diagonal” pattern. So there is high “possibility” that its stock price “might hold” above 57.20..
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze !!!BABA passed wave 5 in the Resistance Zone , and I expect that it will go DOWN to PRZ ( Price Reversal Zone ) & near the SMA 100 ( Daily Timeframe ) after breaking the Important Support Line .
Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD-) between Price and MACD Indicator .
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze ( BABAUSD ) Timeframe 4H ⏰ ( Heikin Ashi )
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy , this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze 🔄(Update)🔄!!!First, I have to back to my previous idea about Alibaba Group Holding. Do you remember it? 👇(it moved as I ✅expected✅).
BABA passed main wave B in the Resistance Zone, and I expect it to go DOWN to the end of main wave C that I showed in my chart.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze (BABAUSD), Timeframe 4H⏰ (Heikin Ashi).
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze 🔄(Update, 10/18/2022)🔄!!!First, I have to back to my previous idea about Alibaba Group Holding. Do you remember it? 👇(it moved as I ✅expected✅).
BABA completed main wave C in the support zone, and I expect it to go UP at least until the end of microwave 4 of main wave C(Resistance zone).
Alibaba Group Holding Analyze (BABAUSD), Timeframe 4H⏰ (Heikin Ashi).
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
BABA AnalysisPrice playing out nicely from my previous analysis. Liquidity was taken at 73.28 and price shot up from there. My expectations are unchanged this week. I'm expecting the fair value gap at 79.79 to be taken.
BABA - BULLISH SCENARIO China stocks are entering an exciting earning season combined with the upcoming major holidays. NYSE:BABA testing the 70s range and bouncing of March 22 lows. The political pressure, production shortages, and raise of materials have been dragging NYSE:BABA lower and lower. Optimistically recovering to the 110-130 range in the next 6 months is a very likely scenario, considering that range is still much undervalued.
