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NIO INC

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Nio contractionNio is a position I likely wouldnt hold long term as the company is not profitable and I usually avoid china like the plague. I do however find interest in this as TSLA heats up and the stock has been ranging. I drew new daily fibs from a semi-recent swing high. The stock is basing around 4.3 and there is an obvious general resistive area I drew with the red line. This is the first real attempt to take an EMA in a while and I think the pivot is to follow after this stochastic RSI resets a bit. -I look for another bounce around 4.3$ -My strategy is to sell 4.5$ puts like I did last Friday on the really red days -If I am assigned I will sell covered calls to exit and repeat
NYSE:NIOLong
by Apollo_21mil
Long NIO @4.55 (very short term trade)This is a very short term momentum change trade - not my normal overbought situation. I'm hoping to be out of the trade at the end of the day if the stock is up from my entry price. Will NOT add more lots if the price falls. The idea is to buy on the momentum change and hold until profitable or the momentum swings back to negative (latter scenario = loss). This is most often a 1 day trade. With NIO in the last 12M here's the results: 8-1 record biggest loss = -6.8% biggest win = +5.8% Avg gain = +1.5% Median = +1.6% Those may not seem like big gains but remember they are 1 day trades and the capital is then freed up for other ideas. All trades using this on NIO in the last 12 months were 1 day trades except for this one I entered today. The swing was 2 trading days ago but I missed it but the price today was below that so I went long. Will update upon exiting the position.
NYSE:NIOLong
by redwingcoach
Wyckoff Bullish Patterns - Accumulation (strong buyers action)VolumeDayTrader offers script of such indicators on TradingView. For more details check our profile or DM us. Weis Wave is an advanced trading indicator used to identify bullish and bearish patterns in the market. It is based on Richard D. Wyckoff's methodologies and is typically used to analyze volume and price action. Here's how to recognize and understand bullish patterns using Weis Wave: Key Concepts of Weis Wave Wave Volume: This is the cumulative volume of each price wave. It helps to identify the strength of buying or selling pressure. Price Waves: These are the movements in price, which can be upward or downward. Recognizing Bullish Patterns Rising Volume on Upwaves: When the volume increases on upward price waves, it suggests strong buying interest. This is a bullish signal as it indicates accumulation. Decreasing Volume on Downwaves: When the volume decreases on downward price waves, it indicates weak selling pressure. This is also a bullish sign as it shows that sellers are not aggressive. Higher Highs and Higher Lows: In a bullish pattern, each successive upwave will typically make a higher high, and each downwave will make a higher low. This reflects a strong uptrend. Support and Resistance Levels: Pay attention to how the price reacts around key support and resistance levels. A bullish pattern often sees the price breaking through resistance levels with strong volume. Example of Bullish Patterns Accumulation Phase: This phase is characterized by a series of higher lows and higher highs, with increasing volume on upwaves. It suggests that smart money is accumulating shares. Breakout with Volume: A significant bullish signal is when the price breaks above a resistance level with a large increase in volume. This confirms that buyers are in control. Pullback with Low Volume: After a breakout, a minor pullback or consolidation with low volume is often seen. This is typically a continuation pattern indicating that the uptrend is likely to resume. Using Weis Wave for Confirmation Combine with Other Indicators: Use the Weis Wave in conjunction with other technical indicators like Moving Averages, RSI, or MACD to confirm bullish patterns. Volume Clusters: Look for clusters of high volume on upwaves at key price levels to confirm bullish strength. By analyzing these aspects, you can effectively use the Weis Wave to identify and trade bullish patterns in the market. Would you like more detailed examples or further explanation on any specific aspect of the Weis Wave?
NYSE:NIOLong
by VolumeDayTrader
NIO stock - when to buy (NEW)NIO stock remains in a strong downtrend. Generally we expect major indices such as NASDAQ and SPX to continue the downtrend as they already saw rejections from the major resistance line. NIO looks kinda similar as it couldn't break the resistance. We expect the next leg down from where we are. The target for shorts and the buy area to play the bounce would be around $4,50 - 5 $. If we see these prices, NIO stock would be down 93% from its ATH. From there we expect to see some nice rally. Reaching the buy area most likely will happen in Q1 2023. We will scoop up some for sure!
NYSE:NIOLong
by vf_investment
14
NIO: A Strong Technicals and Growth CatalystsMonthly Chart Analysis: Since July 2020, NIO has successfully closed the Fair Value Gap (FVG) and reclaimed its position above the resistance line of a falling wedge. This breakout is crucial, indicating a potential reversal of the previous downtrend. Moreover, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) falling wedge has been convincingly breached, accompanied by a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern. Similar price action in October 2019 led to a remarkable surge of over 300%. Two Weeks Chart Analysis: On the shorter timeframe, NIO has broken out of a smaller falling wedge, suggesting an imminent move towards the $7 zone. However, the technical indicators hint at a more significant upside potential. Notably, the two bullish confirmations on the two-week chart, coupled with the RSI breakout, underscore the bullish momentum. Upcoming Catalysts: In addition to the technical strength, fundamental factors further support the bullish thesis. NIO's partnerships, positive sales trajectory, and expansion into the European market are poised to drive growth. Moreover, the anticipation of NIO's entry into the US market adds to the positive sentiment. Risk Factors and Entry Strategy : While the outlook appears promising, it's essential to acknowledge potential risks. Shorters should exercise caution as the stock is undervalued, and attempting to short might be risky. Instead, focus on long positions, particularly at opportune entry points. Look for corrections around $4.6, with potential support at $4.17. Alternatively, consider entry points near strong support levels such as $5.3 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement) or $4.65 (0.382 Fibonacci retracement). Personal Strategy and Disclaimer: Personally, I entered positions at $4 and $3.9, with a stop-loss set at $3.6 to manage risk. I plan to take profits at $10 and $16, aiming for reasonable gains without succumbing to greed. In conclusion, NIO exhibits strong technicals and promising growth prospects, making it an attractive opportunity for bullish investors. Exercise diligence, manage risk, and stay informed to capitalize on the potential upside. I am not a financial advisor, and this analysis is based on personal research and observation.
NYSE:NIOLong
by MarketPax
3
Learn Why Ignoring the Signs Costs You!Key Points: Trendline Break: We’re poised to shatter the current trendline, potentially pushing prices to $10.2 much sooner than anticipated. Technical Convergence: The falling wedge trendline and the 50 MA on the 12-hour chart meet at a pivotal price point. Critical Resistance: Watch for a decisive close above $6. This could trigger a swift ascent towards $10.2, coinciding with the 200 MA. Historical Precedent: Market cap breakouts have historically led to an 84% chance of a price surge. Could we see a repeat of June 2020’s performance? In conclusion, NIO exhibits strong technical and promising growth prospects, making it an attractive opportunity for bullish investors. Exercise diligence, manage risk, and stay informed to capitalize on the potential upside. I am not a financial advisor, and this analysis is based on personal research and observation
NYSE:NIOLong
by MarketPax
NIO: Bullish Outlook Market Psychology: We are currently in the "despair" phase, which is historically the best time to buy and accumulate. This area represents an optimal entry point for long-term investors. Elliott Wave Analysis: The price appears to have completed the fifth wave of the Elliott Wave pattern, indicating a potential bottom. Technical Patterns: We are observing a parallel channel where the fifth wave of the Elliott Wave converges, signaling the price bottom. Additionally, a deep crab pattern suggests the price could drop to the 0.886 Fibonacci level ($3.88) and potentially reach the 1.618 Fibonacci level ($13.41). After this, a healthy correction is expected, with many buyers likely waiting to enter around the $7 mark, leading to a projected surge towards $35 by next year. Key Levels: Major liquidity zones to watch are $6.05 and $9.60, which the price is likely to target soon. A short squeeze may occur if the price surges and closes above $6. Indicators: The RSI on the weekly chart has broken out of a falling wedge, with a similar breakout observed on the bi-weekly chart. The MACD remains bullish. Fundamental Analysis: NIO is currently investing heavily in building a robust infrastructure, expanding in Europe and the Middle East. This phase of burning cash is typical for growth companies aiming to achieve profitability. NIO’s swap stations alone are expected to generate significant profit. Geopolitical tensions, as always, are likely to resolve over time. Long-Term Outlook: Patience is key. Media often generates fear to exploit market sentiment. The EV market represents the future, with hydrogen technology following closely. By 2030, it is anticipated that 80% of vehicles will be electric, with China leading this transformation. Conclusion: Do not underestimate China’s commitment to climate protection. Although not financial advice, my predictions have a track record of over 90% accuracy.
NYSE:NIOLong
by MarketPax
11
NIO: Great Investment, or a Flop?My attention has for the moment been directed towards NIO thanks to Morgan Stanley’s recent purchase of 10M shares, raising their investment value by 55% to over 28M shares, whilst simultaneously setting a near 100% upside 1Y price target to $10 per share. Ahead of NIO’s June 6 earnings report for 1Q2024, I thought it best to take it upon myself to review the company’s past reports, consumer sentiment, competition, and upcoming industry opportunities, in the anticipation that the all time high (ATH) of about $67 may be broken not so far in the future — quite possibly in the next two to three years. Indeed, that sort of prediction may appear at first to be the lament of an investor who readily entered the stock near its ATH, but in fact I have neither open nor closed positions in NIO stock or options at the time of publishing. That is to say: this is an independent evaluation intended to lay out NIO’s potential to become a high-value company, alongside factors that might stand against such an increase. What is NIO, and What Differentiates Them? As stated in their Annual Report 2023 , published April 2024, NIO is “a pioneer and a leading company in the premium smart electric vehicle market. We design, develop, manufacture, and sell premium smart electric vehicles, driving innovations in next-generation technologies in assisted and intelligent driving, digital technologies, electric powertrains and batteries. We differentiate ourselves through our continuous technological breakthroughs and innovations, such as our industry-leading battery swapping technologies, Battery as a Service, or BaaS, as well as our proprietary NIO assisted and intelligent driving and its subscription services.” Compared to most other Chinese EV companies, NIO distinguishes itself primarily through two factors: high-end models and battery swapping. High-End Models NIO focuses on the premium segment of the EV market, offering luxury features and cutting-edge technology. Their vehicles are known in China for their performance, design, and advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS). Models cater to consumers looking for high-quality, technologically advanced vehicles. This positioning allows NIO to target a market with higher profit margins and less price sensitivity compared to the mass market. However, this also effectively sets an upper limit on the demand, as most lower-class and low middle-class would not be able to purchase NIO even if they are willing. It is also worth noting that in Chinese culture, names are seen as of great importance; NIO’s Chinese name is pronounced wèi lái, which means Blue Sky Coming , and it is seen as almost auspicious and rather chic. The same pronunciation of the characters can also be used to mean “future” when written in a different manner. Trading View prevents using multiple languages, hence the lack of Chinese characters. Battery Swapping and Battery as a Service (BaaS) NIO's battery-swapping technology is a significant differentiator: instead of traditional charging methods, NIO offers battery-swapping stations where depleted batteries can be exchanged for fully charged ones in a matter of minutes, replaced by robots without a need for human intervention. This innovation addresses two of the primary concerns of EV owners — charging time and charger availability (for those without private chargers). The BaaS model further enhances this by allowing customers to lease batteries instead of purchasing them with the car, reducing the upfront cost of the vehicle by about $10K and offering flexibility to upgrade to newer battery technologies as they become available. This service model is unique and provides NIO with a recurring revenue stream, similar to a subscription service. The standard 75kWh battery costs $100 per month and the long-range 100kWh one cost $230 per month (respectively reduced by 31% and 35% in March). Do note that the costs accrued from building battery swap station and chargers increases relatively linearly — a good sign as long as revenue continues to increase exponentially. As of May 29, 2024, there are 2,427 recorded swap stations in China, 802 of which are along highways. While there are fewer swap stations in Europe, these are located in larger cities where most NIO Europe users are concentrated. Cooperations with other EV companies are in the works to develop cars which can utilize NIO’s existing battery swap station. Today, NIO has the following partners on battery swapping: GAC Group, FAW Group, Changan Automobile, Geely Group, JAC Group, Chery Automobile, and Lotus Technology. If these collaborations ever come into fruition, NIO would undoubtedly have higher profits from the numerous non-NIO vehicles using their swapping services. Besides, as of November 2023, about 80% of the power from NIO chargers is used by other brands, with BYD and TSLA vehicles being the foremost at 19.4% and 12.3%, respectively. Safety I would like to leave this note on safety, since much attention has lately been drawn to the issue of Chinese EVs catching fire. According to Wikipedia , NIO only had 3 fires recorded by 2021, one of which was caused by a collision; an article in 2023 states two more fires had occurred due to collisions, bringing the estimated total to five for a company that has now sold over 515K EVs as of May 31, 2024. It is suggested that those looking to invest in Chinese EV companies compare their rates of fire per hundred thousand cars sold. For NIO, this number seems extremely low, at under 1 fire per 100K — unless there remains other data my investigation did not uncover. Stock Performance and Sentiment NIO's stock has historically been highly volatile, reflecting both the rapid growth potential and inherent risks associated with the EV industry. I have identified a possible supertrend buy signal on the 5Y chart in the case that the stock price closes above the $6.56 mark at the end of any week. If this happens, it could signify a robust upward momentum, potentially attracting a wave of new investors and boosting market confidence. This possibility is supported by an upwards slope in on-balance volume (OBV) since mid-April — a momentum indicator for volume showing crowd sentiment. Please refer to the chart for supertrend and OBV. The green box indicates the possible buy zone if the supertrend is confirmed, and the arrows on the graph seek to provide a rough guide for how price might move. Overall, market sentiment is mixed, with many investors predicting for an uptrend and others unsure of when NIO will become profitable. Consumer sentiment towards NIO remains generally positive, particularly among tech-savvy and environmentally conscious consumers. The company’s focus on high-end models with advanced features has carved out a niche in the premium EV market. Their NIO house idea further sets them apart from competitors, offering a place where users. These strategies positions NIO well against competitors like Tesla, which also targets the high-end segment, and differentiates it from other Chinese EV manufacturers that compete primarily on price. Competition and Industry Landscape NIO operates in a highly competitive landscape with numerous players vying for market share. Tesla remains a formidable competitor globally and within China, leveraging its brand recognition and extensive Supercharger network. Other Chinese manufacturers like BYD and XPeng also pose significant competition, each with their own strengths in battery technology, manufacturing scale, and market strategies. It seems unlikely NIO will ever have the chance to expand to the United States of America. However, the rest of the Americas might hold some potential for future expansion. At the moment, it might be best for NIO to solidify their position in the Chinese markets and to gain more loyal customers across Europe. Recent Events and Announcements NIO Energy, a key subsidiary focusing on charging infrastructure, battery swapping, and energy storage, recently secured a substantial investment of $207 million. This capital influx is earmarked primarily for research and development (R&D), as well as to support manufacturing and operational costs. Such investments are crucial for NIO’s ongoing technological advancements and expansion of its service network, enhancing its competitive edge in the fast-evolving EV market. Furthermore, NIO announced its record-breaking May deliveries of “20,544 vehicles, increasing by 233.8% year-over-year. NIO delivered 66,217 vehicles year-to-date in 2024, increasing by 51.0% year-over-year.” Having broken their July 2023 highs in deliveries, it appears more and more likely that once NIO ameliorates their cost-managing, their profits will see a formidable increase. Anticipation is building around NIO’s upcoming earnings report for Q1 2024, scheduled for release on June 6. Previous quarterly reports have shown mixed results, with strong revenue growth but persistent challenges in achieving consistent profitability. Industry Opportunities and Challenges The EV industry is poised for substantial growth, driven by increasing environmental regulations, government incentives, and a global shift towards sustainable transportation. For NIO, opportunities lie in expanding its market share, both domestically and internationally, and further innovating in battery technology and autonomous driving. However, the company faces several challenges. Supply chain constraints, rising raw material costs, and geopolitical tensions can impact production and profitability. Additionally, NIO must continuously innovate to stay ahead of the competition, particularly in battery technology and autonomous driving capabilities. Conclusion: Great Investment or a Flop? NIO presents a compelling investment opportunity with its innovative technologies, strong brand positioning, and significant growth potential in the premium EV market. The company’s strategic focus on battery swapping and BaaS provides a unique value proposition that could drive recurring revenue and customer loyalty. However, potential investors should also consider the risks. The EV market is highly competitive and rapidly evolving, with substantial operational and regulatory challenges. NIO’s financial performance has been inconsistent, and achieving sustained profitability remains a key hurdle that NIO will hopefully be able to resolve by end of year 2024. In conclusion, while NIO has the potential to become a high-value company and possibly exceed its previous all-time high of $67 per share in the next few years, it also faces significant risks that could impede its growth. Investors should weigh these factors carefully and consider their own risk tolerance and investment horizon before making a decision. Once the June 6 earnings report is released, I will make an update to further scrutinize earnings and revenue growth. At the moment, it seems a small long position in NIO at the current price would be fitting (low theoretical downside risk at just over $5 per share), although it might be best to wait for supertrend and OBV confirmation before making a hefty commitment. Omni out. Feel free to ask any questions or provide suggestions. This is not financial advice.
NYSE:NIOLong
by OmniscientInvestor
12
NIO ? Are traders ready to love it again LONGNIO on the daily is 95% below its ATH Winter of 2021 and 50% lower YTD. In China NIO is competing well with XPEV, LI , BYD and TSLA while it makes further penetrative into the EU market. Its unique concept in action is battery leasing and battery swapping making charging time no longer relevant. Apparently, the battery swapping time from a depleted battery to one carrying a charge is 15-20 minutes. Being a bottom-seeking bargain hunter quite often, I will take a long trade here with a planned duration of two earnings periods.
NYSE:NIOLong
by AwesomeAvani
NIO (NIO): High Risk, High Reward - do-or-die!NIO, a stock we've previously analyzed and profited from, remains highly volatile and is currently trending downwards. From its all-time high of approximately $67, it has plummeted to $5.21. This drastic decline occurred over just a bit more than three years, which is relatively short in the stock market. Several factors contribute to this volatility. Firstly, the automotive sector is inherently volatile. Additionally, the electric vehicle (EV) segment has faced political challenges over the past few years. NIO, being a Chinese company, has also been affected by EU subsidies for electric vehicles, adding to the stock's difficulties. Despite these challenges, we consider NIO a compelling investment from both a fundamental and technical perspective. Currently, NIO is holding the High-Volume-Node Point-of-Control on the New York Stock Exchange, suggesting that a bottom may be forming. This level is critical to watch as it could indicate potential stabilization and a reversal point for the stock. Short-Term Analysis Examining the 4-hour chart for NIO, we observe a low-volume node between $6.32 and $7. Whenever the price entered this zone, it quickly moved through it, indicating the nearest possible resistance levels. Thus, the levels of $6.32 and $7.04 are particularly interesting. Around $4.12, the Point-of-Control on the 3-day chart holds, but we could see a further decline towards the $3 mark. We are considering multiple entry points, employing a dollar-cost averaging strategy down towards the all-time low of $1.19. Strategy For NIO, this seems like a do-or-die situation. The potential upside is significant, with gains of nearly 400% if the price moves from $3 to Wave 4. We plan to place multiple entries and dollar-cost average downwards. However, if the price falls below $1.20, it would become unsustainable for NIO. While the potential upside is vast, it's important to recognize the risk of the stock continuing to decline towards zero. Given the current volatility, we find an entry before $3 too risky and volatile, so we are holding off on investment until the price stabilizes at more attractive levels.
NYSE:NIOLong
by freeguy_by_wmc
5
6/5/24 - $nio - tough sector, tough geo, tough chart. sidelines.6/5/24 - vrockstar - NYSE:NIO - just tough to justify 1-2 bn of burn even if co is net cash. sales trends not obvious and seem to have considerable competition esp from BYD (look at that chart!) and others esp in their low margin home market. the chart is death. probably will be volatile but as a trading stock only for now - hard to own profitable chinese tech nevermind cap intensive, cash burning, losing-scale stuff like $nio. gl to holders but i'm just going to watch this from the sidelines - i'd stay away until the dust clears and we have a clear rising tide in chinese equities
NYSE:NIOShort
by VROCKSTAR
NIO 8 AFTER EARNINGS !! NYSE:NIO Record Delivery Expectations: NIO shares soared over 9%, hitting $5.40 on record delivery expectations. Analysts foresee surpassing last year's high due to discounts. This indicates a positive market response to NIO's potential performance, which could lead to a higher stock price. Market Sentiment: The market's response to NIO's earnings reports has generally been positive, with the stock price rising after strong earnings reports. This suggests that if NIO continues to report strong earnings, the market could respond positively, potentially pushing the stock price towards $8. Strong Quarterly Earnings: NIO has shown strong financial performance in the recent past, with its stock price rising after reporting strong earnings. This indicates a positive market response to its financial performance, which could lead to a higher stock price in the future. Increased Price Targets by Analysts: Analysts have increased their price targets for NIO, with some predicting a potential rise to $8. These optimistic forecasts suggest that the market and analysts have confidence in the company's future growth and performance. Positive Industry Outlook: The electric vehicle industry is expected to continue growing, driven by the increasing need for sustainable transportation solutions. As a leading player in this space, NIO is well-positioned to benefit from this industry growth, which could lead to a higher stock price. Innovative Product Line: NIO is poised to add two sedans to its offerings this year. This expansion of its product line could drive sales and revenue growth, potentially leading to a higher stock price.
NYSE:NIOLong
by NYRUNSGLOBAL