XPEV AnalysisPrice played out beautifully as analyzed in the previous weeks. My first analysis on 21 July call for a decrease in price to take the selling climax at 18.01, at 30% drop in price so far. Currently price is very near the selling climax at 18.01. However, it's good to note that price has already grabbed sell-side liquidity. We could see a potential retracement up before we take the lows at 18.01.
9868 trade ideas
XPEV: TRENDSI ATS CONFIRMED, THIS WILL RUN TO 22s.Ticker Symbol: $XPEV
️Timeframe: 4H
️TRIPLE BOTTOM
️Investment Strategy: LONG
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
TRENDSI ATS MONEY MOVEMENT SHIFTING UP : BULLISH
LINEAR REGRESSION + TRENDSI: AT THE BOTTOM, WHICH IS AT THE SUPPORT
RSI OVERSOLD AND STOCHASTIC SHOWING BULLISH MOVEMENT.
CONFIRMATION I AM WAITING: TRENDSI ATS GREEN LINE WITH GREEN DOT
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XPEV AnalysisPrice is playing out as analyzed previously. My expectation for the price is unchanged. Price is on a downtrend and is currently reacting to the bearish POI at 34.46. The price is also in Phase B of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Price is currently on a downtrend, taking out the sell-side liquidity built. I expect the price to grab the liquidity at 18.01 and create a spring for a possible up move.
XPEV AnalysisPrice is on a downtrend and is currently reacting to the bearish POI at 34.46. We do have a small fair value gap at 36.92 that could be filled.
The price is also in Phase B of the Wyckoff accumulation schematic. Price is more likely to go down and take out sell-side liquidity built. I expect the price to grab the liquidity at 18.01 and create a spring for a possible up move.
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XpevAfter trending up this rising wedge here we have finally seen some rejection. This could be gearing up for another drop lower if XPEV cannot pop above 33$ and hold we are in for another leg lower. Bearish rising wedge. Break down 70% of the time. Probabilities are high for this to slip and lose support. Be cautious. Prepare shorts Target 25$ and 18$
Fundamentals on XPEV over NIOIt was apparently last year but having such little history, in a nascent market, the data points couldn't be trusted, yet. However I took a large position in Xpev over NIO for a few reasons.
1) They are not competitors, from a price point perspective. Xpev makes a car by my estimate 90% as good as NIOs and 80% as good as Tesla, but they sell for 50-60% of the cost. Nio is a direct competitor of Tesla. Being a start-up funding/attrition is key and fighting Tesla is capital intensive.
2) Speaking of, Xpev is copying more than innovating, though slilght innovations on the things they copy exist. It's cheaper and faster to copy than it is to innovate. NIO made a bold move adopting a battery swap format. It could work in time but that's the problem, in time. It's a capital intensive and geographically disadvantaged strategy to build swap stations, though it's innovative and clever to offer cars at sale prices minus the battery, and leasing the battery to the customer. I like that recurring revenue and lower entry point potential, but again it's a battle of attrition and NIOs strategy is so capital intensive that even it's short term prospects are murky. Xpev is simple. Simple i like.
3) As you can see in the chart this is playing out on the balance sheet and revenue. Xpev from a unit sales perspective has been catching up to NIO, I attribute much of that to their price point and marketing. But also from a balance sheet perspective they are burning less cash so while margins are lower per unit sold, their capex is also lower compared to NIO to balance that out in favor of XPEV.
4) Bonus reason, XPEV is focused. Mainly China/Asia customer base with no plans to expand to NA. Currently testing select parts of Europe. Again, simple is good. Transport logistics, local regulations, taxes/tariffs all create levels of complexity, complexity increases cost an lowers margins. Simple is good.
I see XPEV out performing NIO throughout 2022. Although I do believe should the overall EV market expand fast enough, NIO will do just fine and a rising tide will certainly float their boat as well.
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged last week and reached the HKD87.6 support that we talked about last week. It then craved a lower low before settling at HKD102.60 on Friday. With the latest price action, a close above HKD115.90 could trigger a near term rebound towards the HKD143 resistance. Bear in mind, price action as been creating lower lows and lower highs since Dec 2021, hence any rebound could be limited with traders are trading with the wind on their faces. Hence a close below HKD100 psychological support could provide short selling opportunity with a retest of HKD71.80 support or beyond.
XPEV Price TargetPrice target for XPEV is $33.
All the Chinese stocks are primed for a strong recovery after China`s top administrative authority said it would work to stabilize the stock market and boost economic growth!
Traders are expecting the Chinese government would support the stock market like the FED did in the US.
XPENG -updateXPENG (9868) plunged and hit first downside objective HKD103.4, as anticipated last week. As price action showing lower lows and lower highs since January 2022, EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing bearish crossovers, there is a possibility of Xpeng reaching HKD87.6 support. This level is Fibonacci Extension 1.618 levels, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
XPEV I have Ben averaging in on this around 27 and 28.40. Broke some
Small downtrend resiatnce. Resiatnce key area at 30$. Daily is trash but coul be lagging here. Has been beat down smaller time frame holding up bullish still obviosuly play with caution. Daily is only a small minute spinning top. So still alot of indescion
XPEV - Half full or half empty?Dear subscribers, lets come together to discuss the massive movements in Xpeng... NYSE:XPEV
As the title of this article implies, today we are going to look at the different viewpoints about the future of Xpeng after the massive sell-off in the last days.
It can be clearly stated that the last wave 1-2 setup is invalidated with the breach of the resistance at 33.52$.
Based on the movements of the last few months, we have updated our chart setup to a very bearish scenario and do not expect a direct recovery in the coming days.
Due to the increased volatility, we estimate that we are in a downward wave 1-2 setup and currently we have witnessed a loss of -37% since the high at wave 2 (red).
Theoretically, the wave 3 target at $31.94 (1,618 extension) is almost reached, yet Xpeng can continue to fall and we expect an upcoming breach of the $30 level.
After that, we should start a small recovery based on wave 4, which will most likely bring us back to the region of 34$-36$.
After that, we estimate further losses as very likely and assume a break of the previous low at $22.73.
Predicting the future correction target is very difficult, but we view a correction to the $20 level as realistic.
There is a small chance, that the correction could come to an early end at this price levels, however the possibility for this is very low.
We would like to remind every subscriber that we as "Mendenmein-Capital" are clearly long term oriented and will continue to hold our "Acquisition #1"
If Xpeng should hit new lows, we will add more positions to our holdings and won't sell them for the next few years.
Keep in mind that this is a buy and hold position - unleveraged and without a stop-loss.
Current setup:
AVERAGE EXECUTION PRICE: 40.76$
STOP-LOSS: NONE
Disclaimer:
According to legal regulations, Mornau-Research is not a certified or legally recognized financial advisor and any transactions based on published content are at your own risk.
Mornau-Research cannot be held liable for any losses whatsoever according to the legal regulations in it's country of residence.
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XPENGXPENG (9868) price action favors the short sellers. This because EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing deadly crosses, a bearish sign. In addition, it also forms higher highs and higher lows since Dec 2021. Hence it is likely to further extend its downtrend and present short selling opportunities once HKD115.9 level broke thru. First downside objective is HKD103.4 while second downside objective is HKD87.6. Both levels are Fibonacci Extension 1.272 and 1.618 levels respectively, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.