9888 trade ideas
Wedge Pattern Forming in BIDUBaidu is forming a wedge pattern on its weekly chart, and with earnings coming out on April 27th, right now seems to be an inflection point in the change of the price of BIDU. If earnings come out great, beating expectations, one may see BIDU's stock surge out of its wedge resistance price of $187, during that point, I would put in a long position with a stop right below the new support line which was the previous wedge resistance.
However, if BIDU disappoints in earnings, BIDU might just as easily drop below it's wedge support level of $165. If that is the case, I would probably look to take a short position, with the stop loss being right above the 200 MA price of $175.
Whichever way it moves, I want to be on the right side of the trend. If I had to wager on which side it would be, I would choose the long side. BIDU is a tremendous company with an extremely wide moat. Considered by many to be the Google of China, BIDU has little if any competition with it. The financials look solid and the returns on assets, equity, and capital remain above 10%.
All the best,
RC
Baidu Bears And Bulls Set To CollideOn April 7, 2017, Baidu ( BIDU ) had four daily moving average cross events occur. The stock crossed below the 100, 200, and 250 daily moving averages (DMA) while the 20 DMA crossed below the 100 DMA. All four events have never occurred on the same day before. Also, when all four events occur individually, they do not always result in a loss.
Historically the stock has crossed below the 100 DMA 57 times with a median loss of 6.122% and maximum loss of 25.704%. The stock has crossed below the 200 DMA 46 times with a median loss of 4.269% and maximum loss of 21.444%. The stock has crossed below the 250 DMA 42 times with a median loss of 3.529% and maximum loss of 26.166%. The 20 DMA has crossed below the 100 DMA 16 times with a median loss of 6.459% with a maximum loss of 24.301%. All of this information is based over the next 15 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 47.0218. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is relatively neutral.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -11.6928. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is down, but slightly trending up.
The negative vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.0275. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 70.2026 and D value is 70.5545. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock just began a reversal.
The 100, 200, and 250 DMA downward crosses have occurred on the same day or within one day of each other seven times. The minimum loss of these occasions has been 1.230%. The stock has also been in a technical flag pattern since August of 2015 and is nearing its apex. The stock will break out of this pattern to the downside on this trip or could possibly break above it within the next three months. If the breakout occurs to the downside, it would most likely occur this time. If the downward break has significant volume behind it, the stock could fall well beyond 3%.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be neutral and probably heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 2.84% over the next 15 trading days.
Baidu INC using mean reversion.8 trades on this one and 5 are long, 3 are short. Total returns: 39.3% while the S&P returned 17.38% during this time frame. Working on lowering risk through keeping draw down low.
BIDU down at support? Waiting for a positive day followed by a confirmation to consider entry position.
BIDU COMING INTO SUPPORT OR HEAD AND SHOULDERSBidu is at support on the daily chart and bottom of the wedge. It is also forming what looks like a potential head and shoulders pattern.
In the bear zoneBounced off support. Broke the last line of defense. Lets see how it behaves. Bias towards short side.
Back in fashion?GOOD FUNDAMENTALS
Consensus = Buy
Valuation = Appealing (PE 13.42x)
Growth and profitability = Exceptional (ROE 44%, 5yr growth +53%)
Only target price is weak (flat), but could it be revised upwards?
TREND PICKUP
Sitting on the long-term MA50 support
Closed just below the medium-term MA100 resistance
Looks like it is possibly turning positive on the LT chart
Short-term trend looking solid with MAs turning positive
LEVELS
UP - 180 / 185 / 190
DOWN - 173.50 / 172.50 / 167.50 / 165
CONCLUSION
Go long here ahead of earnings in half position
Target 190. Potentially more if it breaks it to the upside
Stop 165
R/R a little weak at 0.8x (justifying the half position trade).
Follow up #BIDU earningsThe Q4 earnings is not pleasant and causes the #BIDU price down.
Cut loss for daily chart: $171.72
Cut loss for weekly chart: $159.54
If you still long #BIDU, it is an opportunity to buy the dip.
good tr buy and selloption strike BIDU170210 C180
or
stock
buy view chart stop band enter
after this u can sell like chart
