HSI maybe be raising for a week before fallingNo sign of RSI bullish divergence in 4hr and 1d graph right now.
Wait and see.
HSIK2025 trade ideas
Be IN the market NOT TIME the market Just Oct 2024, we have a near bear market for the Hong Kong market with near 20% fall from the peak. Had you sold your index or shares, would you be lucky or skilful enough to pick up at the bottom and ride the 33% up again?
The market is mischievous and sometimes like to teach you lessons not once but twice and in a short period of time. It falls again once more , even harder , entering into a bear market to make you break out into a cold sweat, panicked and have sleepless night (24%).
Again, did you react on impulse and start to sell again especially with many influencers online saying China/HK is uninvestable ? Or gurus telling you political system in China is crapped and it cannot be compared to US. Of course, it is managed differently from US , just like any countries and it has to be review on its own merits.
The TREND is your friend, so it says and it seems easy to understand intellectually and much harder to apply it. Seeing your company shares from profits to losses is not a nice thing especially if you have been hoping to buy something nice with the profits or thinking about cashing it out for some other purposes. You hesitated and your hopes is all gone.
You cursed and swear and worst, you sold off all your shares , swearing NEVER to enter the market again! Of course, you cannot run away from the media - enewspaper, the forums, the myriad of apps that deliver news, friends/colleagues lunch talk, etc.
You felt shameful, guilty and regret for selling out too early and not have the fortitude to hold it longer. Like a wounded child, you are afraid to trade/invest again especially in trying times like this. But you live each day with remorse , thinking how beautiful had you profits continue to grow and what nice surprises you can offer to your family.
This is the time you need to stay away from short term betting/trading, whatever you call it. The tendency to take REVENGE against the market is high. You will unnecessarily increase your position size and manually adjust your SL just NOT to get hit. You were lucky a few times and thinking luck is on your side, you bet bigger and even expand to other risky assets like leveraged ETFs and cryptocurrencies where volatility is even higher.
You were sold by many online gurus showing you their testimonials of making not 6 , not 7 but 9 figures profits. Ask yourself if you are making this kind of profits , what will you be doing now? You still have time to sell your bloody course or you will be too busy pursuing your dream - buying houses and cars , upgrade your lifestyle. Call me realistic, I am but that is what I will do. For sure.
That is why i keep advocating invest for the LONG TERM , leave trading to the experts and those who can afford to lose money. They just dont share their losses with you, oh come on, you know I am right !!!!
In 2023, I made a bold prediction of where the HSI will go. Of course I was wrong that the bottom was nowhere near the 17k mark, it went as low as 14k+ before the rebound we see today.
Once again, I am making the next prediction for it to rally towards 28k by the end of this year. Let's see if I am right , haha.
As usual, please DYODD
S**T! We are in a catch 22 situation - Asian countrieswww.cnbc.com
We have witnessed the sharp fall of both China and US market due to the recent tariffs war by President Trump. While Trump said that many countries have come forward with plans to negotiate with US, thus far, he has not released any positive results.
I hope the Chinese government will continue to unleash stimulus of a bigger magnitude to help the country which is still saddled with weak property, high unemployment, artificially propped stock market (imagine if the National team does not come in to buy the ETFs), weak consumer spending,etc.
Hang Seng Bull Market ImplodesHong Kong’s Hang Seng is imploding with the price cascading lower after breaking support at 22,570 earlier today. The subsequent unwind saw 21,728 and 21,377 melt like a hot knife through butter before the price eventually bounced at 20,535 — another minor level that acted as both support and resistance earlier this year. That makes it an initial level of interest for those contemplating setups involving Hang Seng futures.
A clean break of 20,535 would put a retest of minor levels such as 19,718 and 19,430 on the table. The 200-day moving average is also found at 19,891, although one glance at how price has interacted with it previously suggests it may be entirely ignored in this environment. Beyond that, the uptrend dating back to the early 2024 low is another level to watch, although it hasn’t been tested enough to declare it meaningful downside support. It’s located around 18,550 today, just beneath the January 2025 swing low of 18,694.
While they provided no support earlier today, 21,377 and 21,728 may still be of interest if bears choose to set up shop above either. Watch the price interaction at these levels if the Hang Seng gets back there.
Momentum signals remain firmly with the bears, with MACD and RSI (14) both negative and trending strongly lower. While RSI is now oversold, it was also extremely overbought earlier this year — and that didn’t stop further gains at the time. The same could easily apply on the downside. The overall momentum signal favours selling rips and downside breaks near term.
Good luck!
DS
Applying being greedy when others are fearfulYes, it is one thing to say be greedy when others are fearful. So, I have just nibbled the tracker fund 2800 ETF as it touches 21 price level. Using the HSI as a base chart, there lies a possibility of the price to revisit the support line at 19,961.
Too many retail investors/traders want to TIME the market , buying exactly at the support level or sell at the resistance level. Price action does not move in a linear fashion , thus making prediction a rare skills reserved for the far few (just dun ask me who). It is better to buy in tranches , like 10% when market drops 10% or more, another 10% if it drops 15-20% , etc.
That makes my life easier and more relaxed than to check on the chart often unless chart staring is your cup of tea, haha.
Again, this is not financial advice as many still view China/HK as uninvestable. So, do your own due diligence.
US is going to lose this to ChinaWhilst Trump is playing his full on MAPA (Make America Poor Again) game, there is one candidate who will benefit from the new world order.
US won't be a reliable partner for anyone as long as Trump is talking and pulling the strings, whilst China is in a very good place to simply re-route exports to other nations and avoid the US craziness.
I reckon that this chart will break to the upside, although to trade it we should wait for the breakout confirmation. Once that happens, we can go long in there and let the US cripple on their own with nice tariff phantasies.
HSI weekly prediction - for self learning and record onlyrounding top pattern forming but yet to fill top shape. Aiming 25000 next week.
HSI breakout: 21377 price targetHSI has broken out of the descending daily trend line, and also found support at the 200. day EMA.
With a potential bottom having formed, the first price target for the coming move up would be 21377 which price previously rejected twice from.
Beyond that, price can target 22686, then 25048 which is the top of the golden pocket, being the 0.65 retracement of the entire move down from ATHs.
HANG SENG This rally isn't over yet.Hang Seng (HSI1!) has been trading within a Bullish Megaphone for the past 13 months and since the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) rebound on January 13 2025, it is unfolding the new Bullish Leg.
The previous two both went on to price a Higher High on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension. If this holds on this sequence too, then we are looking for a 27,500 Target price as the new top of the Bullish Megaphone.
Notice also how a 1W Bullish Cross always comes to confirm the new Bullish Leg shortly after the bottom is priced.
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Hang Seng Weekly Time Frame Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI1!) - Weekly Chart Analysis (Feb 17, 2025)
1. Trend Analysis
The chart suggests that HSI is in a long-term upward channel, respecting both upper and lower trendlines.
The index recently rebounded from the lower trendline, indicating a strong support level holding.
A potential uptrend continuation is forming, aiming for higher resistance levels.
2. Key Levels
Support: The lower boundary of the upward channel (approx. 17,500 - 18,000).
Resistance: The horizontal zone around 25,000 - 27,500, which has historically acted as a key resistance level.
Major Trendline: If price action remains above this trendline, the bullish momentum could continue toward 30,000+.
3. RSI Indicator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 68.62, close to the overbought zone.
Historically, RSI reaching this level has often preceded corrections, suggesting a possible pullback before further upside.
However, RSI remains in a bullish structure, supporting a longer-term uptrend.
4. Potential Scenarios
📉 Bearish Scenario (Pullback First):
If resistance at 25,000 - 27,500 holds, a pullback toward 20,000 - 21,000 could happen.
A deeper retracement might test the trendline support near 18,000 before resuming an uptrend.
📈 Bullish Scenario (Breakout to New Highs):
If price breaks and holds above 27,500, we could see a continuation toward 30,000 and potentially the upper channel limit at 32,500.
Any successful retest of previous resistance as support would confirm further upside momentum.
Conclusion
Mid to long-term trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the trendline.
Short-term pullback possible due to RSI nearing overbought conditions.
Key breakout zone: Watch 25,000 - 27,500 for direction confirmation.
Hang Seng - Stimulus package still lingering to the upside?Hi guys , next we would look into the Hang Seng. With the Stimulus package made in the Chinese economy we saw a very big boost into the price of the Hang Seng, of which afterwards we saw a decent correction to the current level, I believe from this point forward we would formulate an an ascending channel and push towards the higher level, maybe not the strong Resistance Level, but around the level which I wrote down on the chart.
Entry : 19,740
Target : 20,621
I have entered with 250 contracts.
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
Rising Wedge Break Puts January Lows on RadarHang Seng futures have broken out of the rising wedge formed since early January, leaving them vulnerable to downside.
Bulls stepped in ahead of the 50DMA earlier today, paring losses, but price action into the close could be key in determining near-term direction.
Momentum signals are mixed—RSI (14) has broken its uptrend, but MACD has yet to confirm.
A slide into the close could open the door for shorts targeting a retest of the January swing low, with the 50DMA and minor support at 19,430 found in between. A stop above Monday’s high would provide protection.
Good luck!
DS
Chinese Stocks Poised for TakeoffThe HSI broke above the 200 MA and pulled back toward the 50 MA, which is acting as strong support—similar to what we saw in 2017.
The relationship with China's 10-year bond yield is remarkable. In 2017, when the CN10Y reached its bottom, the HSI touched the 50 MA, and a bull run followed. The same pattern seems to be unfolding now
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
$HSI/China clear long bullish play here$HS_F Bullish china trade here, can basically go long on anything china related imo, should be good :)
Bullish Breakout Incoming🔺 Key Levels and Setup
Falling Wedge Break: HSI consistently pulls back after breaking the wedge.
Demand Zone Strength: When the zone strengthens, it confirms the bottom.
Red Cloud Breakout: A close above the red cloud signals a rally toward 26K.
🔍 Technical Confirmation
📈 Daily Chart:
The TVC:HSI on the 1-day chart mirrors the previous cycle, where:
1️⃣ It broke out of a falling wedge.
2️⃣ Surpassed the 50-day moving average before dropping back below.
3️⃣ The final candle before the rally was a bullish engulfing pattern—just like now!
📉 4-Hour Chart:
Five bullish reversal indicators align:
RSI, CCI, OBV, VWMACD, and CMF.
With this strong confirmation, I can confidently state that the HSI has bottomed out and is heading toward 23K in the short term.
🚀 Prediction
Chinese stocks are flashing bullish signs. Once HSI clears the red cloud, expect sharp upward momentum toward 23K and eventually 26K. The breakout is imminent – get ready for the surge!
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
$HSI turning 3M chart MACD flipIt is time folks! They held china down too long, starting into my NYSE:BABA calls, leaps of course. See you on the other side :)
HSI might break out from triangleSee if HSI can break out from the yellow zone after today's close, if so Dec will be a nice month. Together with some potential policies coming our from CCP's confrences.
HSI Bull caseSince early 90s HSI entered a multi decade long trend that lasted till 22', when it fell 49%.
Subsequently the market has consolidated at 38.2% of the multi-decade rise. A frequently seen 61.8% retracement from the peak.
The play here was to wait for the Chinese market to consolidate in this region ,build momentum and retest the prevailing trend.
More info is needed to precisely understand which step in the consolidation to breakout movement we are in.
A divergence in the PVTOsc and a break into its positive value shows that we are close.
A support on the blue downward trendline is what we are now looking for , as a last indicator for the next leg up retesting or potentially breaking in the prevailing trend.
In terms of sizing a position, anything below the blue trendline, especially below purple horizontal should be viewed as a ball underwater.
Heng Seng seeks rally from 61.8% fib level (7th time this year)This is purely observational, but today I noticed that Hang Seng futures have risen from a 61.8% Fibonacci level six times this year. And as the rallies have landed anywhere between 6.5% to nearly 50%, it is worth noting that it is trying to rally from it a seventh.
A 3-day bullish reversal pattern formed on Monday (morning star formation) and the daily RSI (2) was oversold on Friday. Bulls could seek dis back towards the 61.8% in anticipation of a leg higher to 20k or 20.5k over the near term.
MS
Hang Seng heaviness opens door to downside flush Hang Seng futures look heavy. Friday’s bearish engulfing candle has been followed by two consecutive declines, leaving the price teetering just above horizontal support at 20280.
With RSI (14) and MACD providing bearish signals on momentum, the inclination is to sell rallies in the near-term. It may also see a potential break of 20280 stick where so many other attempts have failed recently.
If we were to see futures break (and preferably close) below 20280, you could sell with a stop above the level for protection. The May 20 high of 19772 would be the initial trade target, especially with the 50-day moving average located just below.
If that level were to be broken, it opens the door to a potential deeper flush to 18500 with only minor support at 18945 located in between.
Good luck!
DS
HANG SENG Patience until December for a long term buy.Hang Seng (HSI1!) made a massive bullish break-out in September as it broke above the February 2021 Lower Highs trend-line, effectively ending its Bear Cycle. This month (October) saw it getting rejected not just on the 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) but also on its 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
This is a key rejection as in almost 30 years, every time the price got rejected on the 0.618 Fib, it recovered on the 3rd (1M) candle after. As a result, December will give a buy signal based on this historic price action, so have patience and take a multi-month buy then.
In most of those cases, the index rebounded to the previous High, so our Target will be 30975. Notice also that the 1M MACD is rising off a Bullish Cross. When formed below the 0.0 mark, this has also been a massive buy signal.
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Mag 7 Earnings - Something will Break (Ceiling or Floor?)797 stocks reporting earnings next week
Notables include
GOOGL
LLY
CAT
META
MSFT
COIN
AMZN
AAPL
XOM
CVX
MA
V
$15 trillion in market cap at play as the US markets are still very close to all-time highs with a melty-uppy vibe. I'm cautiously bullish and could certainly see the highs get blown off with strong earnings momentum dominating the sentiment. I could also see Mag 7 disappoint investors with "not enough growth" and any pullbacks on Mag 7 will certain drag on the entire market.
Survive next week, then it's onto the US Election, FED, Non-Farm Payroll. No big deal, it's just trading :)
Thanks for watching!!!
Hang Seng IndexMade an oath of silence on Twitter but I wanted to save this chart for myself to review in a couple years.
