HSI1! trade ideas
HSI futures - false breakout setup a high risk-reward tradeHSI future forms a wedge making me bias to bearish.
Today, it breakouts the previous swing high, EMA50, and a mid-term downward trendline, and immediately drops below, expecting to close as a pinbar.
A classic false breakout setting with 5 conflence factors (also considering the fib retracement, and the long-term resistance).
A 2.5 risk-reward trade will be enter around the close.
HSI FUtures 4/20I assume Asian markets will fill the Gilead gap because US and European markets did. Then probably a bounce because the Chinese govt isn't going to let their market tank.... not without a fight at least.
Asian markets like to pump on Monday nights, we'll see what happens here shortly....
$NQ_F $ES_F $HSCEI Futures ascending bear wedge into necklineHello! $HSCEI -- is forming a very clear bearish ascending wedge which will likely push up into the already broken down h&s neckline + the FIB 50% level... I'd go short around that area. GL
Hang Seng...Wave 4 endet this week?Hello Traders,
today I like to show you the Hang Seng Future (Current contract in front) to show you the wave structure.
On a daily timeframe, we still observe, that the close on April 17, high @ 24689 (intraday) and @ 24356 (closing), Hang Seng possibly finished a wave „4“ of Minor degree (the degree is not that important, let`s check the structure).
If this is the case, next week should be a down week, which will show the first waves of a wave „5“ to fresh new lows below the 20965 on March 19! This move should develop as a „five-down“!
If so to come and wave „5“ will evolve internally as wave 1 did, the time target for this wave is the week of May 4. If it will develop in terms of price as wave 1 did, it would be a „truncated“ wave! Because after an extended wave 3, waves 1 and 5 tends to be equal in terms of price movements. And according to R. N. Elliott, there is only one wave to extend during an impulse. But this is to early to judge.
So, within a „normal wave „5“ down, this move need to close below 20965 and it would extend to possibly the lower boundary (green) of the trend channel. A price target for this idea would not be serious at the moment, so I´d like to wait for more evidence of this idea.
Another count could be a „flat-pattern“ in progress.
In this case, the possible wave 1 would be a wave A, the wave 2 a B-wave and the decline underway a wave C. The only „problem“ I have with this count is the fact, that wave C is developing very long in terms of price and retrace more than a 1.618 Fib extension of wave A! In fact, in rare cases, it is allowed to do so, but this is a rarely seen extension. But still valid.
So, I judge this idea with one of the lower probability of both I described here. I just wanted to show you my „thoughts“ about possibilities.
While a wave 4 rule says, that it is not allowed to peak into the price territory of wave 1, this wave can move higher as to the 0.5 Fibonacci of wave 3. So the invalidation point for a wave 4 is at the peak low of wave 1 @ 25880!
We will see what`s next for HS and I will update the count if price and time move forward next week.
Have a great and safe week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI UpdateI think whether the market goes up or down Monday depends entirely on if the Chinese and other Asians to do a gap fill first (much like ES1 gap fill).
So it could go either way Monday, but I'm bullish for the week until MFI gets overbought on ES1 or FDAX. Note that does not mean it will go up every day....
HSI back to 21650 level? We can see multiple rejections at 24560 region with series of LHLL market structure. If price fails to defend at 23000 area, we should expect the bear market to continue.
TImeStamp: 16 April 2020 11:32AM
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Short term of HSI, with the short target pricePlease see the coming trend, whether it will go break out to higher level or finally fall down to lower level!
Possible Reversal to 25750Potential bullish pattern formed in monthly dimension. Observe and see the reaction near 21300 level. Possible reversal after stabilization.
China BottomLooks like China finally realized they're headed for a recession if the rest of the world goes into one. Hang Seng still has a way to go until it hits bottom, and at the rate this is going, probably next week.
Maintaining bearishness until end of next week, even though I expect an up day on Friday as shorts cover before the weekend.
Note that MFI is not oversold yet on the daily or my usual 4 hr chart. I had to post the daily chart just to find teh next support.
Signs of Hope in HK again....I like what I am reading here
The main message here is things are returning slowly back to normalcy. That is consumers are spending again, maybe not a lot but it will come eventually as things get better. And that is what businesses need. An exchange of goods and services.
Please note that I do not know if this is a dead cat bounce or not or the bottom is here. That is why i have a short term target to exit and I have a tight SL as you can see from chart.
Futures trading is risky as it is volatile especially HSI, one of the heaviest traded in Singapore, that I know of. So , make sure you have a strategy to trade, employ STOP LOSS, risk and capital management.
DYODD
Chart Fest: Bad news and good news 3/7Having some away from markets and want to shoot out some charts.
The bad news is, on a long-term basis, markets are just starting to break down.
The good news is, in the short-term, markets are testing long-term support and could mount a significant relief rally.
HSF Downtrend to 26500Possible bearish cypher pattern formed, T1 at 27530, T2 at 26500, T3 at 24220.
China in sell modeLooks like the govt is done trying to pump money into the market, selling off now. Probably gonna hit support, could go lower.
Did you listen to the experts ?This is what the experts say about the market !
I agree to average up in stages and byte size that you can handle. Only Mr Market knows if this is a false breakout and they won't tell you , right ? So, beside having a trailing stop loss to protect your capital, make sure you do not sink your entire kitchen into the market , assuming that it has recovered. I wish I had a crystal ball to confirm but I do not so I too will be buying in cautiously and optimistically.
China released a really lousy sets of numbers , 35.7 for its manufacturing PMI , a 14.3% drop from last month. If logic prevails , bad data = bad stock market performance , then traders's job would be an easy one. The fact that there can be so many macroeconomic, political factors that drives the stock market , focusing too much can result in analysis paralysis.
Chart does not argue, it present the facts as it is , in your face , whether you agree or not, accept or not. That is the truth , something that you have to face it when dealing with the market.
Trend line gives me an unbiased view , not 100% accuracy but a higher probability of winning chance as compared to others I have used. And like I said, use whatever indicators or methods that you are comfortable with. Some are good in analysing news and profit from it while others excel in mapping decades of historical pattern. To each his own, most important is to be happy and make some money the way.
Happy trading , guys !!!
Rising Wedge Pattern for HSIF. Possible Downside at 25360SHORT at around 26490, placing stop loss at 26630.
Looking to take profit at 25360.
Risk / Reward Ratio is 1:8
Bounce Zone 4/4 : $HS1! Part 4 of the Bounce Zone series. $HSI! is trading at the bottom of a medium term wedge with SSR support. $HSI1! has been a relative out performer this past week. The HK government just passed a huge stimulus budget and Xi has it under control in China.
Hang Seng testing supportI fell like all of the bulls are celebrating a bit early because the market finished at the top for the day, futures are determined by global trading and I haven;t seen anything from the Asians or Euros that indicate that they are done selling.
Hang Seng testing support and DAX broke through....
This is why I'm suspecting a double bottom with a lower bottom like Feb 2018. Also the reason why I'm mostly cash over the weekend.
Hang Seng futures - short term advance probably comes to an endFirst time ever to publish chart analysis with explanation to support my projection. Hello everyone, I am the believer of Elliot Wave Theory. The charts show both the Day chart and 4-Hour chart.
1. From the Day chart, since Jan 2018, HSI has been going ups and downs by ABC waves. It is still difficult to categorize whether the index is in bear market, but it definitely rebuke the claims that the index has returned to bull market. And the fact that, China is now under the severe impact of wuhan coronavirus.
2. From the 4H chart, we see a clear 5-wave impulsive wave starting from 14 Jan 2020 to 1 Feb 2020. The ratios of (1), (3) and (5) are justified. Since Feb 2020, we see a strong technical rebound (correction wave). Since the preceding wave (14 Jan - 1 Feb 2020) is a 5-wave movement, the technical rebound should not exceed 0.618 of the preceding wave. It's very likely that the market will start off another descending impulsive wave. Wait and see.
Disclaimer: Elliot Wave Theory somehow helps justify the historical movements and assists you to decide when to long or short a market in a longer run of time. It can to a certain extent provide you the possible movements ahead but it's just for reference. You still need to make reference with other indicators and ratios. Happy trade.
$HSI Hang Seng Futures Short Part 2.Soooo another H&S has appeared within a larger Head and shoulders to make for an interesting 2nd short entry. It looks to be at just about where the right shoulder should form, short here with a stop loss obviously.
