HSI UpdateLooks to me like China is due for a bounce as well....
I am super bearish on cryptos but China always pumps cryptos even though they are supposed to trade them, lol. I'm guessing they're using futures as a loophole? I dunno.
HSI1! trade ideas
Still short on Chinese Equities Despite the numerous stimulus by the Chinese government, HSI's previous rally seemed to be short lived.
This is in fact, align with my expectations. Reason because: 1. Continuous lock-downs/fears of lockdowns. No one will know when will the city go into lockdown, putting all production etc on hold. 2. Investors' confidence. Despite the credit stimulus, it seems like it is not really helping the demand in the property market.
My expectation is however, to go long on Chinese Equities at 18117. And I am expecting this to be around the end Oct-Early Nov period after the china politburo meeting whereby we could possibly expect the following: 1. Even more stimulus. It seems that the Chinese can withstand further rate cuts but they might not be willing to do so to ensure the stability of the yuan. 2. Ease of quarantine measures. However, point 2 in my opinion, might not have that huge of an effect as expected. Reason being: 1. There is no flights to Mainland China. However, we might expect more flights to Mainland China after the meeting 2. There is still chance of massive lockdowns despite the one that happened in Shanghai earlier this year.
HSI Prediction Scenario 2This would be the second scenario of my HSI prediction.
HSI is in downtrend, but based on its MACD divergence, HSI might have chances to go up and touch the downtrend line in short. I predict it might be in the middle of September as all the midterm financial reports of the company have been released. And it falls again from the pressure line and touch the 18400 (the support level) and bounce one more times as shown.
Please feel free to let me know your thoughts
HKEX:HSI1!
Heng Seng IndexHSI is in a downtrend, and it follows the major downtrend line. I predict the HSI will drop to 16xxx as it has the a major strong support line.
The road path is predicted as shown. HKEX:HSI1!
HSI: Supercycle BullI don’t usually post a supercycle because it is not that useful for a trader. But maybe it is good to use this as a reference when you decide on whether to have a long or short bias if you are trading the HSI.
Other than the EW counts, take note of the red support line that I’ve drawn. That is a crucial support. I also particularly like the fact that A=C.
HSI UpdateHSI touching overbought on RSI, probably pulls back tonight.
If you're still holding along position in PDD, I suggest dumping or at least locking in some profit. I'm already out.
HSI UpdateOversold and hit my target last night so bought some PDD calls this morning.
Good earnings and positive news so you know that garbage is gonna go up fast, it always does. Already getting pumptarded, but I've seen PDD move $20 in a week, for example runup before last earnings.
This is why I plot stuff though, hit the target almost on the dot.
HSI Bullish on Macro?PBoC cut its 1 year and 5 year LPR again in an attempt to spur its credit markets.
As expected we saw a huge jump in HSI this morning. However, I think this rally might not be long lasting because of investors' sentiments. Based on the technicals, it seems to be in a downward channel as well. My take is that unless it breaks out 19860, it will probably reverse back down.
HSI MFI OversoldExpecting at least a one day bounce off this minor support
ADR traders must be looking at the same thing because PDD went green despite HSI going down last night.
HSI UpdateMFI hit overbought last night and several companies announced they are going to delist from the US after their market closed.
There is a gap in futures, but China doesn't always fill those. Snagged some PDD puts on the gap fill, and added a few on this pump. Will wait until EOD to decide if to bail or add. Despite the delisting news, Chinese ADRs are melting up wit the US market, lol. When the algos pump, they pump everything.
15-19/8 weekly Playbook
Overall, $HSI remains cautious until heavy-weighted names earnings release. Therefore, I expect $HSI will continue tight range bound between Monday and Wednesday. Of note, I want to see how the price reacts around the 2H belt as it entered the belt.
Price scenario:
Open/bid above 20078-096, build up time/volume, would test these 20230s area and see if the sellers are still there. If we do manage to break higher, would tgt 20500 and 20633 along the way. 192-230 would be reasonable targets for longs.
If this 20230s area fails, then can revert all the way lower and test 19455.
Open/offer below 20000, want to test 19873/842/825. Below this we’re more than likely going to tgt this 760-600 weekly low volume area where I expect responsive buying. On the way lower would look at 549/519/440 for support.
Depending on the action, if I dont see strong reaction from sellers prior to hitting this 760-600 area, I think we can bounce and test 20167 and 20236.
HSI UpdateChina's tanking again, lol.
I guess I should have paid attention to the easy play. Was so hung up on CPI that I forgot all about China even though PDD is near the top of my watch list.
Oh well. Can't chase it now.
I know there's a lot of bears following me, a lot of time if I feel bearish and the US market is melting up I short a foreign ETF or in this case ADR. Missed out on this one.
Belt STILL rejected HSI!Last week HKEX:HSI1! rallied to 20300 previous week low volume area then got sold off towards 19450-ish, previous daily excess, where seller couldn't find traction. Buyers stepped in and ended OTFD and created three sessions of OTFU into 20300-ish and again got rejected, which left weekly OTFD continued.
Looking ahead, with the Belt, aka @spacemanbtc creation, getting lower, I expect STFR mode still in play, unless the low volume area is taken out.
Bullish case: IMO, buyers in control as long as the area holds, then claim and gain acceptance within 266-355, targets 585
Bearish case: breaking down 4/8 low would trigger weakness, and overall it's simple, keep price under 356 and break 19456, to maintain weekly OTFD, target 19216/063/18879/576
Master Belt dislike $HSIThe belt created by @spacemanbtc rejected $HSI breakout and created weekly OTFD. From the perspective of market profiles, weekly imbalance indicates bearish sentiments among traders and further downtrend expected.
Theme: STFR
Bulls target: reclaim 20633 and tackles above 20985, but note that top belt is leaning lower
Bears target: stay below the single prints around 20300, take out and weekly close under the weak low
HSI UpdateChina is probably the hardest market to predict because their govt exerts their will on the market, whether it be up or down.
I shorted PDD again today because I think it goes down and retests the bottom next week. We'll see.
HSI UpdateIndicators are oversold, but chart pattern says one more down day.
Taking the safe approach and just leaving profits in PDD puts, cashing out the original investment to lock in profits.
HSI 25/7-29/7 weekly planHKEX:HSI1!
Failure to take out previous VAH led to sell-off down to level near the single prints created on Monday.
Week ahead, pivot would be 20868
Since the huge excess 21192-21600 has not been untested, the sentiment for upcoming week favours bears and remains sell-the-rally mode until aggressive buyers take out that excess, which I doubt. FOMC may be the catalyst.
20626-20560 would be a significant area for buyers to defend, or found a bottom.
Yellow area under 20626-20560 is definitely an area that likely to see responsive buyers jump in, which is necessary for bulls to reverse downtrend. If bulls buy this dip, they need to establish acceptance above that LVN around 20500 for continuation. If bulls fail, the previous week excess will be next support.
Indicators: www.tradingview.com
HSI follow the world trend US and Euro market in HSI cash hourGreen and blue lines are the daily trend and VWAP is in red. You may observe that HSI night market did not follow much on the drop of US and Euro market, as during the HSI night market, the participants are relatively less than the cash hours (GMT+8, 0930 to 1600 hr). When HSI cash hours start, world wide major participants will trade in the HSI cash hours. Therefore, you will find a clue from the movement of US and Euro market before you participate in the HSI trading.
HSI FuturesBased on the technicals, we can expect a retracement. Based on the macro environment, should the U.S remove the tariffs on China imports, it will be likely that there will be a breakout.
✅HANG_SENG_INDEX BEARISH SETUP|SHORT🔥
✅HANG_SENG_INDEX is trading in a downtrend
And the pair is now retesting a resistance cluster
Of the falling and horizontal levels
So I think that we will see the price go down
In bearish continuation move
SHORT🔥
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HSI: So bad that it is good?Clearly not a bet the farm type situation but the HSI has traditionally staged a rally off big -2x standard deviation moves.
HSI almost ovverboughtHSI almost overbought, so you know what that means....
PDD puts though the premiums are high due to earnings.
HSI UpdateLooks like MFI went oversold, time for the next pump, conveniently on a Friday.
Generally speaking if the Asians plan to pump we get an EOD rally.
