LUC1! trade ideas
Buy March copper at 384.80 limit, stop at 378.80, tgt at 394.40
looking to buy copper on poullback ahead of NFP report tomorrow. Buy March copper at 384.80 limit, stop at 378.80, tgt at 394.40
CopperRight now copper futures (HG1!) are trading sideways in a well defined channel. With the growing demand for elecrtic vehicles and government pledges to decrease their carbon footprint copper should become a valuable commodity for building this new infastructure. While copper is trading in this channel I am going to be trading with the CPER ETF that tracks copper futures extrememly accuratly through the purchase of bonds to capture opportunities as prices bounce off of supports and resistance lines. When the price does break through the resitance I will switch to longer term investments in the COPX ETF which loosely emulates the Copper Futures but focuses on holding in mining companies and pays out dividends.
Copper futures. Disinflation is almost there to comeCopper futures fell further to around $3.8 per pound, marking a weekly loss driven by concerns over demand from China and heightened US interest rates.
China's manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, contributing to the negative sentiment.
With a robust US jobs report, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March have diminished.
Weaker Q1 industrial activity is expected to dampen demand, although Glencore's projected 5% production decline in 2023, along with an anticipated additional drop in 2024, could offset this.
Despite these challenges, there is still hope that China will implement measures to stabilize its economy.
Technical graph illustrates also, 5-years SMA is a massive long term support in this time for Copper futures COMEX:HG1! , as it breakthrough can deliver solid further losses for Copper futures prices, like in 2020 (30% off), in 2014-16 (40% off) and in 2008-09 (50% off).
Bear 🐻 flag pattern A bear flag is a bearish chart pattern that's formed by two declines separated by a brief consolidating retracement period. The flagpole forms on an almost vertical panic price drop as bulls get blindsided from the sellers, then a bounce that has parallel upper and lower trendlines, which form the flag.
Copper in USD per ton to reach $15,000/t by 2025The copper price in USD per ton since 2015 is rising within an upward (green) trend-channel with consolidations (red) followed by strong acceleration phases (yellow) suggesting that the correction since 2021 is coming to an end and that a new strong price increase is poised to start once the red resistance is broken and transformed into new support. Analysts in early 2024 are forecasting a strong price increase of +75% to reach $15,000 USD/t to spur new mine developments (Goldman Sachs predicted this price level already in 2021 to be reached by 2025, whereas mining magnate Robert Friedland also said in late 2023 that this threshold is needed as an incentive for new copper mine developement projects to be realized).
Dr Copper Monthly looking to rally medium termMonthly chart looking to rally
initial Divergence trade has played out, now it looks like the path of least resistance is up
Copper shark attackIf you trust the recent 9/20 day moving average crossover enough to short copper, today's bounce back toward the 9MA might be a good one to sell.
When setting a profit target to the downside, a harmonic trader could project a shark with its C-point (D-point in the diagram) in the neighborhood of 3.5365 (red circle), for about a USD0.25 profit per contract. This would work out to USD625 for the mini contract or USD3125 for the full contract.
If the shark went on to complete by drawing a full CD leg (green arrow to green circle), that would be another USD0.25 to the upside.
Whither copper?On the left we see in formation the final leg of a nice ABCD harmonic pattern in copper futures— if it forms. The moving average crossover suggests otherwise.
For further guidance, we can examine Dr. Copper's price pattern since commodity prices started to settle down in early 2022.
Your move. We would find it acceptable not to do so for at least a few days.
Sell march copper 383.60. Stop 386.90, tgt 372.80Sell march copper 383.60. Stop 386.90, tgt 372.80
Copper closed below a key support level
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Im bullish all comodities, especially Energy and selective metalThe dollar is going lower, so longs in selective commodity make sense
Hammer low in Dr. Copper!
COPPER : REBOUND- The market registers higher peaks and bottoms, trading within a bullish channel since the end of October 2023, the medium-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Very recently, prices recorded a 4th impact on their bullish trendline, following a sell-off since the failure below the $397.40 area.
A strong positive reaction is currently recorded in the shape of a piercing price pattern, following a bullish divergence registered by the Stochastic indicator.
- This is a bullish rebound situation. Indeed, bullish investors appear to be numerous and powerful enough to prevent the market from breaking its downward trend line. The next targets can be located at $387, $391.10 then $397.40 and finally above $400 by extension
Nice Win on Copper today! Copper showed up in the TrendCloud Scanning system this morning and we took the trade short in the live trading room.
Momentum and trend were both down across multiple timeframes according to TrendCloud.
Price pulled back to our 5 minute supply zone and took profits at $100.
Another winner trade for TrendCloud!
If you want to use a trading system that's already making money then click the link in my profile.
buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60buy march copper 379.20 limit, if filled, stop 371.60
COPPER: Long term sell signalCopper is bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 59.350, MACD = 0.033, ADX = 19.471) as it is at the top of the 2023 Channel Down, but having failed to cross over it, opens the way for a big decline in the first quarter of 2024. As you can see the Channel Down that started last January looks very similar to the one in 2012/13. Both emerged after a Global peak and then rejection to an oversold 1W RSI bottom.
It is very interesting how similar the ranges are, both Channel Down bearish legs have been around -18.50%. We are turning bearish on the most optimal technical level and aim for another -18.50% decline (TP = 3.2500) or up when the 1W RSI gets oversold (under 30.000).
See how our prior idea has worked:
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COPPER Correction to accelerate lower.Last time we looked at Copper (HG1!) 1.5 months ago (October 24), we caught the most optimal bottom buy signal:
The price action didn't only hit our Target but also broke above both the January 18 2023 Lower Highs trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The rejection that took place on Monday though, is giving rise to a new Falling Wedge pattern with the current Bearish Leg on full display. The bearish signal is already confirmed as the 1D MACD has completed a Bearish Cross, and so far the sequence is very similar to the August 01 rejection.
As a result, we are bearish on Copper, looking to take advantage of today's green 1D candle and short near the closing in anticipation of being close to the peak. Our short term Target is 3.6100, which is the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, a symmetrical level where the price bounced on August 17. Selling can only be extended if the green Support Zone breaks.
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Copper on the Verge of a Break-Out!Copper futures have experienced a noteworthy trajectory, influenced by various market factors. The bottoming of 30-year bonds in late October, resulting in lower yields, has coincided with a rally in copper prices. Interest rates play a pivotal role, acting as a major headwind to construction spending and financed projects, thereby augmenting demand for copper.
A significant driver for the copper market has been China's industrial production figures for October, surpassing expectations with a 4.6% increase compared to the anticipated 4.4%. This positive data has added conviction to the strength of the copper market. Traders are eagerly anticipating the release of the next Chinese Industrial Production numbers on December 14th for further insights.
Headwinds for Copper:
The upcoming week presents challenges for risk assets, and the interest rate environment, as various job-related data such as ADP Nonfarm, Avg Hourly Earnings, Unit Labor Costs, and the Unemployment rate are scheduled for release. The evolving credit cycle poses potential benefits for commodities, with copper serving as an indicator for the economic landscape.
Support & Resistance Levels to Watch:
To witness sustained strength in copper, market participants are keenly watching for a break and close above the critical level of 3.92-3.96. Should we gain traction above this level, the psychologically significant 4.00 level looms as the next significant hurdle. The intricacies of copper futures reflect the intricate dance between economic indicators, global production figures, and the evolving credit cycle, and will continue to be a closely watched commodity in the new year.
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Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Copper Futures to target 5.05 after crossing 3.85COMEX
On the weekly chart, a technical pattern has formed and the crossing confirmation above 3.85 will push the price up to 5.05 passing through several levels of resistance - shown on the chart.
Trading above 5.05 for more than a month, the long term target will be 5.6
Stop loss should be considered - 3.75
#Copper Levels: BUY OR SELL?#Copper Market Levels:
Resistance: 712
Support: 708
Trading Strategy:
A trade plan is suggested only if either the resistance at 712 or the support at 708 is breached.
Copper 2017-2020 FractalThree years span 2017-2020 fractal matching 2021-2023 along negative trifecta:
1- High grade production glut now forecasted to exceed usage by 467,000 metric tons in 2024
2- US Ratings downgrade poised to worsen Treasuries ig, global juncture, EZ in recession, China's slowdown
3- Extended geopolitical tensions potentially broadening to Taiwan as signaled by the preventive Korean equities short selling ban
🧽 Mister Poper. Meet The Cleaner Of Your DreamsCopper price continued to provide negative trades affected by the frequent stability below the additional barrier at 3.7280, to manage to reach some negative stations by touching 3.6100.
Also, RSI stochastic continues to provide the negative momentum to allow us to suggest forming new negative waves to attack the additional support near 3.5000 followed by monitoring its behavior to manage to confirm the upcoming trend.
The expected trend: Bearish
Copper Futures ~ November TA Outlook (Daily Chart)COMEX:HG1! chart mapping/analysis.
Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes
Copper Futures attempting to build bullish momentum off evolving China economic stimulus narrative.
Copper vs palladiumDon't know how I got down this rabbit hole, BUT when #copper really bottoms vs #palladium, this chart is telling me that the #dxy is toast.
Has the #USD truly topped?
