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MHI1! trade ideas

HSI - to bounce or to break?The Hang Seng Index had a boosting rally a couple of weeks ago, but lost its hold at the top of the channel and had been working its way down slowly since. Unlike the STI, the HSI appears relatively stronger given the environment and situations it has been in, particularly over the past year and a half. It is a t the lower end of the channel, and candlesticks indicate a slight push down to test the support, followed by a bounce, and a likely fail about two or three weeks later... the downside fallout could come earlier, but there is little now to trigger it, albeit a surging COVID-19 cases in the territory. Ominous weeks to follow, watch for bounce or failure.
HKEX:HSI1!
by Auguraltrader
Post Fed. HSI Super BearishRallied briefly but as anticipated it was short lived and sold off from first resistance. We now have an inside day fake out on dailies and are very close to the key levels 24300-500. Acceleration gap through there will signal the start of mark down. With the amount of distribution, 20k should be minimum but its not just the last 3 months. It has been going on since late 2017(refer to my 23 May post, linked below). If you are short, hold onto this one. It can be very big.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Coming Down NicelyAfter the Buying Climax on 7th of July, brief distribution was carried out between 25950-26250. Today saw a gap down and a selloff to first of the 4 unfilled gaps below which is acting as a support for time being. Key resistance above now is 25850-950. Move down so far appears to be in a channel formation. Major chunk of distribution took place between 24500-300 since the low in March. Gap through that will signal the start of a markdown and accelerated move towards 20k and below. Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
4
Buying Climax and a Top? Zigzagged with huge volume(see above) at the open, took out the stops above the very important level marked in Yesterday's post and has since been on the decline. We will know for sure in next few sessions but there is a good chance that Today marks the start of a significant decline which will take HSI to 20k and below if my analysis of distribution near the 24k level are correct. First significant support is the gap at 25250-500. It can get real ugly in no time so trade carefully.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Update: SELL SELL SELL!!! More on the post earlier Today. HSI now has rallied beyond the point which i have marked for few weeks as the potential turning point. We may see brief distribution between 25950-26250 for couple of sessions and then move lower. I am to remain short until it breaks above 26800. I am of a view that the rally so far this month after the passing of controversial security law is to trap the investors who were on the sidelines waiting to see how the market perceives the new law. There is 10 weeks of distribution near 24k. If it reverses, 20k may come in no time.
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
2
Breaking up with HUGE VolumeToday saw a huge surge in volume in the morning hour. Double the usual. Next few days are critical. From a bullish POV, HSI is now breaking out of a 10 week range with a high volume but to predict whether it truly is a break to the top or a trap, it is important to know what happened within the range and how the market approached the breakout. To my understanding, it was distribution(as i have been pointing out in my previous posts) and there is very little left in it. 2 possible scenarios to top out are as drawn on the chart. Triangle(Blue). Ending Diagonal(Orange). Regards
HKEX:HSI1!Short
by Dec0der
Low Volume Consolidation and a break up.As updated on 16th, selloff last week from 25255 seemed uncharacteristic of a markdown. Gaps were quickly being filled and volume in the morning hour on 3 days following the top showed minimum enthusiasm from either side. Too early to call but low volume consolidation may mean a developing triangle. I am seeing something along the lines drawn at the chart. Keep an eye on S&P. It may coincide with S&P filling the gap from Feb or making new ATH. If wrong, selloff should start in next couple of days. If so, refer to post "HSI Update" on Jun 13th for the anticipated path. Regards
HKEX:HSI1!
by Dec0der