MHI1! trade ideas
No Clear DirectionTurns out, Yesterday's original idea of selling at 24600 could have been a masterstroke.
On Daily, we have an inside day fakeout which favors more downside over the next couple of sessions.
Levels to watch for support
24120
23750-800
Gap at 23455
For resistance,
24250,
24360
24460.
I don't have any clear bias atm. Sidelined for now.
Thank you.
Resistance to be tested shortly (Revised)*Analysis are overrated. Timing entries/exits is the real essence of Trading.*
Resistance to be tested shortly?Details at the chart.
*Analysis are overrated. Timing entries/exits is the real essence of Trading.*
Triangle most likelyBeautiful move by bulls crushing all bears in their path.
Odds greatly increase towards scenerio 1 (triangle) from the weekend analysis.
Best course of action as of now seems to be trading near the extremes back towards the value area.
Triangles can take some time. Be patient and always have a SL in place.
Thank you.
More Consolidation?Further to my earlier post, i was expecting a swift up and down move to take out some weak hands above 23900 and quickly come down but it has stalled just below and the consolidation around 23800 seems to imply that there may be more upside to come.
I will negate the earlier idea of going short above 23911 and instead look to sell around 24050-24120.
A short position here with a SL 23980 can be considered but i will wait for a better opportunity.
If you look at my weekend post, we are quickly back in the distribution zone(23750-24250) again so there may be more consolidation without any clear direction.
I will update if a more clear picture appears.
Thank you.
Beware ShortsDistribution zone between 23750 - 24250.
From my experience, Accumulation / Distribution is carried out in usually 2 or 3 phases in different zones. Prices will swing up and down to trap traders but will quickly come back into the zone for more consolidation until the big players are done.
My view is that we are not YET ready for the resumption of main trend down.
I see possible 3 scenarios playing out in coming days and weeks.
1. Triangle forming before the final push up.
2. Price moves down to fill the gap from 20 Apr at 23076 and comes back up.
3. Goes down further to take out the SL below 22561. Parallel channel support will come into play as well in this scenario.
For big picture, see the image below.
Thank you.
HSI | bearish 1-2-3 reversal pattern
the strong red bar that broken the wedge a few days ago signaled the start of 1-2-3 pattern
at point 3 today, it will be an strong engulfing pattern
it is also a false breakout of 1) horizontal resistance, 2) a long-term downward trendline and 3) 50 SMA
I have three indices in mind: NASDAQ > SP500 > HSI, and HSI is always the weakest candidate for short
China's failure to obey trade deal could be the fundamental catalyst for this selloff
Hang Seng futures (HSI1!) WXY patternHang Seng futures (HSI1!) is in WXY down cycle from the top shown on chart. It has completed X wave as triple three correction. Y wave is already started down as A wave.
HSI | a new downtrend has started
HSI was running a ascending wedge
the false breakout of four resistances confleunce resulted a selloff today
the golden timing to entry a short position was last Wednesday as I had mentioned
now I will the take half of the profit by the end of today
and move the stop loss to entry level for breakeven
also wait for a pullback (expected in this week) to add positions
HSI futures - false breakout setup a high risk-reward tradeHSI future forms a wedge making me bias to bearish.
Today, it breakouts the previous swing high, EMA50, and a mid-term downward trendline, and immediately drops below, expecting to close as a pinbar.
A classic false breakout setting with 5 conflence factors (also considering the fib retracement, and the long-term resistance).
A 2.5 risk-reward trade will be enter around the close.
HSI FUtures 4/20I assume Asian markets will fill the Gilead gap because US and European markets did. Then probably a bounce because the Chinese govt isn't going to let their market tank.... not without a fight at least.
Asian markets like to pump on Monday nights, we'll see what happens here shortly....
$NQ_F $ES_F $HSCEI Futures ascending bear wedge into necklineHello! $HSCEI -- is forming a very clear bearish ascending wedge which will likely push up into the already broken down h&s neckline + the FIB 50% level... I'd go short around that area. GL
Hang Seng...Wave 4 endet this week?Hello Traders,
today I like to show you the Hang Seng Future (Current contract in front) to show you the wave structure.
On a daily timeframe, we still observe, that the close on April 17, high @ 24689 (intraday) and @ 24356 (closing), Hang Seng possibly finished a wave „4“ of Minor degree (the degree is not that important, let`s check the structure).
If this is the case, next week should be a down week, which will show the first waves of a wave „5“ to fresh new lows below the 20965 on March 19! This move should develop as a „five-down“!
If so to come and wave „5“ will evolve internally as wave 1 did, the time target for this wave is the week of May 4. If it will develop in terms of price as wave 1 did, it would be a „truncated“ wave! Because after an extended wave 3, waves 1 and 5 tends to be equal in terms of price movements. And according to R. N. Elliott, there is only one wave to extend during an impulse. But this is to early to judge.
So, within a „normal wave „5“ down, this move need to close below 20965 and it would extend to possibly the lower boundary (green) of the trend channel. A price target for this idea would not be serious at the moment, so I´d like to wait for more evidence of this idea.
Another count could be a „flat-pattern“ in progress.
In this case, the possible wave 1 would be a wave A, the wave 2 a B-wave and the decline underway a wave C. The only „problem“ I have with this count is the fact, that wave C is developing very long in terms of price and retrace more than a 1.618 Fib extension of wave A! In fact, in rare cases, it is allowed to do so, but this is a rarely seen extension. But still valid.
So, I judge this idea with one of the lower probability of both I described here. I just wanted to show you my „thoughts“ about possibilities.
While a wave 4 rule says, that it is not allowed to peak into the price territory of wave 1, this wave can move higher as to the 0.5 Fibonacci of wave 3. So the invalidation point for a wave 4 is at the peak low of wave 1 @ 25880!
We will see what`s next for HS and I will update the count if price and time move forward next week.
Have a great and safe week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment.
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI UpdateI think whether the market goes up or down Monday depends entirely on if the Chinese and other Asians to do a gap fill first (much like ES1 gap fill).
So it could go either way Monday, but I'm bullish for the week until MFI gets overbought on ES1 or FDAX. Note that does not mean it will go up every day....
HSI back to 21650 level? We can see multiple rejections at 24560 region with series of LHLL market structure. If price fails to defend at 23000 area, we should expect the bear market to continue.
TImeStamp: 16 April 2020 11:32AM
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Short term of HSI, with the short target pricePlease see the coming trend, whether it will go break out to higher level or finally fall down to lower level!
Possible Reversal to 25750Potential bullish pattern formed in monthly dimension. Observe and see the reaction near 21300 level. Possible reversal after stabilization.
China BottomLooks like China finally realized they're headed for a recession if the rest of the world goes into one. Hang Seng still has a way to go until it hits bottom, and at the rate this is going, probably next week.
Maintaining bearishness until end of next week, even though I expect an up day on Friday as shorts cover before the weekend.
Note that MFI is not oversold yet on the daily or my usual 4 hr chart. I had to post the daily chart just to find teh next support.
Signs of Hope in HK again....I like what I am reading here
The main message here is things are returning slowly back to normalcy. That is consumers are spending again, maybe not a lot but it will come eventually as things get better. And that is what businesses need. An exchange of goods and services.
Please note that I do not know if this is a dead cat bounce or not or the bottom is here. That is why i have a short term target to exit and I have a tight SL as you can see from chart.
Futures trading is risky as it is volatile especially HSI, one of the heaviest traded in Singapore, that I know of. So , make sure you have a strategy to trade, employ STOP LOSS, risk and capital management.
DYODD
