Natural Gas - Before Ouching Territory, Let's Rally to $3.8One thing appears to be rather obvious: crude's rally has fizzled out:
Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally Annihilated
And that's bad news for bulls. If crude's rally has fizzled, can natural gas counter rally?
Well, natty hasn't done much all year. One of the reasons is probably that the world, which is controlled by the Communist Party, wants to SaVe ThE WoRlD FrOm CliMatE cHaNge by destroying the plastic industry, which natural gas supplied.
Next, they want to get rid of furnaces, which natural gas supplies, and have everyone live on heat pumps (an air conditioner with a blow side that can get hot instead of just cold), which rely on electricity and not natural gas.
At least electricity generation itself still mostly relies on natural gas, and that's never going to be replaced by solar and wind because the technology doesn't meet the requirements of modern consumption.
At the end of July, I called that Natty would not go up until it goes down more, because it seemed to me at the time that the charts just don't have institutional support to go uppy past $10 this year.
NatGas - No Moon Until Doom
\
Right now, if you want to go long on anything, because it doesn't matter if it's DoCToR CoPpEr or equities or gold, you have to be either low risk or hedged, because of the imminent threat of the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party.
Xi Jinping has the game theory problem of being the head of the most wicked and heinous regime in all of human history, the Party that dared to commit organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners.
Although that persecution was launched by former, and now-dead Chairman Jiang Zemin, and although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for years in his Anti-corruption Campaign, the problem is Xi is still the head of the Party, and you always kill a dragon by severing its head.
And its tail was already severed recently when former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by "an heart attack" at the ripe age of 68, which is very young for a Party prince to die.
If Xi dumps the CCP Gorbachev-USSR style in the middle of the night, especially if it happens on a Friday or a Saturday, everything is going to be gap down gap down gap down gap down and never come back because of the time difference between Beijing and Manhattan.
And if Xi really is too stupid to do that much, there's still a raging pandemic besieging Zhongnanhai, and the Emperor's bedroom has never been immune to plague.
So over the last few months, what's happened with natural gas is, it's up apparently a lot. Like, from $2.7 to $3.6 sort of a lot and looked almost rampy on the monthly bars until it corrected this November:
The weekly, though, shows the pain that the rallies keep getting sold off:
And this is because the rallies weren't really rallies. What would happen is one month would settle and the next month's contract, which is trading in contango, would roll in and give the appearance of uppy and smash up levered futures traders.
But the ETFs show that natty has done absolutely nothing all year.
UNG, which is an unlevered fund:
Is down 56% this year, hasn't rallied one bit, and looks poised to break necks around $4, because what doesn't go up is going to go down. It's been flat for too long.
2x leverage BOIL (long) had a 20:1 reverse split 6 months ago, never rallied, and looks pretty puketacular right now:
And 2x leverage KOLD (short):
Has spent 6 months in a 35% range killing options buyers in what looks like a "bear flag" that's just taken way too long to do the thing bear flags are supposed to do.
And so we can only surmise that the once-fabled $1.8 to $1.6 range on Natty is incoming.
Perhaps we'll see this magic before the end of the year.
If you want to short natty, I have some reservations that this $3.6 monthly high is going to remain the monthly high, because it was set on the first day of the month.
And so there is a potential trade opportunity, roughly now, to take out like $3.8 and net a 25% bagger.
Or just wait until $3.7 and go short on a size that you aren't going to get liquidated on until $5 and be willing to put up with $4 for a day or two.
But most importantly, natty couldn't possibly have topped at $10, and simultaneously couldn't possibly have bottomed at $1.9 with the way 2023 is playing out.
The most sadistic MMs on any asset are the Natty overlords and they're about to get started, I believe.
GNM1! trade ideas
NATGAS BULLISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| LONG
Hello,Friends!
Bullish trend on NATGAS, defined by the green colour of the last week candle combined with the fact the pair is oversold based on the BB lower band proximity, makes me expect a bullish rebound from the support line below and a retest of the local target above at 2.163.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
NATGAS SENDS CLEAR BULLISH SIGNALS|LONG
Hello,Friends!
We are now examining the NATGAS pair and we can see that the pair is going down locally while also being in a downtrend on the 1W TF. But there is also a powerful signal from the BB lower band being nearby indicating that the pair is oversold so we can go long from the support line below and a target at 1.967 level.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Natural Gas Price Forecast | DXY Oil XAGUS Gold00:00 Natural Gas stock Bulls NatGas Support & Resistance Guide
06:02 AMEX:UNG Stock Forecast
07:57 USO Oil Stock Forecast
10:11 DXY US dollar Stock Forecast
11:07 Gold XAUUSD Stock Forecast
12:31 Silver XAGUSD
#naturalgas #natgas #xagusd #dxy #xauusd #naturalgastechnicalanalysis #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy #daytrading #naturalgasanalysis #naturalgastrading #natgasanalysis #uso #crudeoil
Elliott Waves: Natural Gas case study
Overview:
Since the significant bottom in June 2020, Natural Gas embarked on a compelling journey, forming a fresh impulse that concluded around the highs of August 2022 as Wave I in the Cycle Degree. The subsequent phase witnessed a corrective move, labeled as Wave II on the weekly timeframe, comprising three subdivisions: ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)). The current focus is on the ongoing Wave ((C)) on the Daily timeframe, expected to unfold in five subdivisions: (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5). Within this framework, Wave (1) to (4) are complete, and attention now turns to the unfolding of Wave (5) on the Four-Hourly timeframe.
Current Structure:
On the Four-Hourly timeframe, Natural Gas is in the process of forming Wave (5), consisting of Wave 1, 2, and the ongoing development of Wave 3. The details of Wave 3 are further observed on the Hourly timeframe as finished wave ((i)) & ((ii)) and now possibly we are unfolding Wave ((iii)) of 3 of (5) of ((C)) of II.
Elliott Wave Principles:
Corrective Structure:
Wave II is corrective, manifesting as a complex correction with three subdivisions, labeled ((A)), ((B)), and ((C)).
Impulse Formation:
The primary upward movement from June 2020 to August 2022 represents an impulse, characterized by a sequence of five waves.
Subdivision Details:
Each wave and subdivision unfolds according to Elliott Wave principles, maintaining the structural integrity of the overall pattern.
Learning Points:
Analyzing Market Cycles:
Elliott Wave Analysis serves as a valuable tool for understanding the cyclical nature of markets, providing insights into the psychology of both buyers and sellers.
Trend Anticipation:
Corrective waves within the Elliott Wave framework offer a strategic opportunity to foresee potential trends—whether they signify a resumption or reversal of the existing trend.
Elliott Wave Analysis is a tool to decipher market cycles, offering insights into the psychological dynamics of buyers and sellers.
Corrective waves provide an opportunity to anticipate trend resumption or reversal.
The principle of non-overlapping waves helps identify the structure of the market move.
Validation and Risk Management:
The integrity of this Elliott Wave structure is contingent on Wave II not surpassing the low of Wave I, identified at $1.440. A breach of this level would invalidate the current wave count.
I am not Sebi registered analyst.
My studies are for educational purpose only.
Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
I am not responsible for any kinds of your profits and your losses.
Most investors treat trading as a hobby because they have a full-time job doing something else.
However, If you treat trading like a business, it will pay you like a business.
If you treat like a hobby, hobbies don't pay, they cost you...!
Hope this post is helpful to community
Thanks
RK💕
Disclaimer and Risk Warning.
The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Charts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Charts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
Natural Gas Clocks Three-Year LowMonthly Support Eyed
Recent trading has seen the price of natural gas futures refresh multi-year lows at 1.927 USD/MMBtu. Since November 2023, we have seen natural gas trade lower by nearly -50% and demonstrate scope to reach support at 1.615 USD/MMBtu, a level that boasts historical significance as far back as 1999!
Given this, there is room for further downside in this market.
Daily Chart Echoes Bearish Vibe
Moving across the page to the daily timeframe, you may note that the downside vibe is emphasised in this chart.
Not only has the unit ventured south of channel support taken from the low of 2.235 USD/MMBtu, but we’ve also seen support taken out at 1.992 USD/MMBtu (now marked resistance). Support can be found at 1.792 USD/MMBtu, derived from 2020. Usually, a break of support will see traders seek a retest of the breached level as resistance. This has already occurred; if you drill down to the H1 timeframe, you will note that the price has actually retested the level in the shape of an ‘alternate’ AB=CD bearish pattern and has driven lower in a one-sided move.
With room seen to continue lower on both monthly and daily charts, further underperformance could be on the way, targeting daily support from 1.792 USD/MMBtu, followed by a test of monthly support at 1.615 USD/MMBtu.
Natural gas1.95 is a strong mirror support level, it came up for the first time in a year, it broke through very weakly, there is a sign of a false breakdown of the level. the rebound can be 5-10%.
Meanwhile, February is historically a time of decline for gas; gas fell 8 times out of 10 in February with minimal pullbacks.
I buy from current ones.
Natural Gas - Potential for huge gains if price reverts to meanNatural Gas price trading around the historical low levels. Goldybug is asking himself how likely is it to remain at these levels? Triple digit return potential, this is the kind of investment that gets Goldybug's feelers twitching.
As ever, back up any opinion with your own research.
Read, read and read.
Never place more than you can afford to lose.
Good Luck.
NG -Natural Gas , Don't Buy Now !!!
Technical Analysis:
- NG is still finishing a wave ((II)) in Blue in RED . We expect after a bounce in a wave ((1)) in Black
- H1 right side is down
- H4 right side is turning down
Technical Information:
- You must wait for the wave((II)) in Red to be completed in order to buy as( Position Trader))
Does Bulls will Take Control in $MCX:NATURALGAS1!Dear Followers,
I hope this message finds you well. I wanted to provide you with a brief update on the stock MCX:NATURALGAS1! I have been monitoring.
It appears that the stock is approaching a potential Support level Near 615-610 This is an important technical point where the price has historically had difficulty breaking through. It suggests that we may see a temporary halt in the current Downmove momentum and Possibly it will test 230-240 In Upmove.
influenced by reduced demand forecasts for the next two weeks and increasing output levels. The market was weighed down by expectations of above-average temperatures until at least February 15, with a return to normal anticipated on February 16-17. The prospect of colder weather later in the month is expected to boost heating demand. However, rising gas production, as wells resume operations after the mid-January Arctic freeze, contributed to the downward pressure on prices.
Resistance Levels to Watch out.
Resistance levels are the opposite, representing prices at which a stock has historically struggled to move above. These levels can signal a selling interest. Understanding resistance points is crucial for anticipating potential obstacles in the upward movement of a stock.
R1= 185
R2= 220
R3= 235
Support Levels To Watchout.
Support levels represent prices at which a stock has historically had difficulty falling below. These levels often indicate a strong buying interest. It's important to monitor these levels, as a breach might suggest a potential downward trend.
S1= 170
S2= 160
S3= 153
As always, please remember that investing involves risks, and it's important to carefully consider your options. If you have any questions or would like to discuss this further, please don't hesitate to reach out.
Best regards,
[MCX] Natural Gas Trade IdeaNote -
One of the best forms of Price Action is to not try to predict at all. Instead of that, ACT on the price. So, this chart tells at "where" to act in "what direction. Unless it triggers, like, let's say the candle doesn't break the level which says "Buy if it breaks", You should not buy at all.
=======
I use shorthands for my trades.
"Positional" - means You can carry these positions and I do not see sharp volatility ahead. (I tally upcoming events and many small kinds of stuff to my own tiny capacity.)
"Intraday" -means You must close this position at any cost by the end of the day.
"Theta" , "Bounce" , "3BB" or "Entropy" - My own systems.
=======
I won't personally follow any rules. If I "think" (It is never gut feel. It is always some reason.) the trade is wrong, I may take reverse trade. I may carry forward an intraday position. What is meant here - You shouldn't follow me because I may miss updating. You should follow the system I share.
=======
Like -
Always follow a stop loss.
In the case of Intraday trades, it is mostly the "Day's High".
In the case of Positional trades, it is mostly the previous swings.
I do not use Stop Loss most of the time. But I manage my risk with options as I do most of the trades using derivatives.
DXY USO XAGUSD Gold Natural Gas Price Forecast - BIG MOVE soon.#naturalgas #natgas #xagusd #dxy #xauusd #naturalgastechnicalanalysis #technicalanalysis #tradingstrategy #daytrading #naturalgasanalysis #naturalgastrading #natgasanalysis #uso #crudeoil
00:00 Natural Gas stock Bulls NatGas Support & Resistance Guide
03:05 AMEX:UNG Stock Forecast
04:10 USO Oil Stock Forecast
05:38 DXY US dollar Stock Forecast
07:49 Gold XAUUSD Stock Forecast
09:11 Silver XAGUSD
NATGAS Is Very Bullish! Long!
Please, check our technical outlook for NATGAS.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 2.076.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 2.405 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
NATGAS Trading Opportunity! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on NATGAS and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 2.092 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 2.423
Safe Stop Loss - 1.906
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NATURAL GAS: Buy opportunity near oversold levels.Natural Gas is almost oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 33.738, MACD = -0.139, ADX = 32.983) right at the bottom of the three month Channel Down. Last time the 1D RSI dipped under 30.000 (oversold level), the LL was formed, the Channel Down bottomed and posted a strong December-January rally. Due to the long term bearish trend on NG, we don't expect such a rally this time but the price is low enough to justify a short term buy to test the 1D MA50 (TP = 2.500).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Natural Gas(NG1!) Has Started to Bounce Now Technical Analysis:
- NG is doing a bounce in wave ((1)) in black. We expect that this bounce will continue
- H1 right side is turning down
- H4 right side is turning up
Technical Information:
- If you didn't buy yet, you must wait for the wave((2)) in black to be completed in order to buy
- And if you want to buy now, you need to put stop-loss around 2.43 but it's a risk trading now to buy
NATGAS SHORT FROM RESISTANCE
Hello,Friends!
NATGAS uptrend evident from the last 1W green candle makes short trades more risky, but the current set-up targeting 2.242 area still presents a good opportunity for us to sell the pair because the resistance line is nearby and the BB upper band is close which indicates the overbought state of the NATGAS pair.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
Natural Gas Opening Range SetupThis is a step by step process for you to use every day on the opening range of Natural gas and Crude Oil.
TrendCloud will show you the best signals to take for the retest of opening range breakout.
4 hour trend is down
1 hour trend is down
Trend and momentum are both down on 4 hour and 1 hour
Therefore; look for a breakout to the downside on the opening range and take the retest.
If you want the step by step trade plan then click the link in my profile.
NATGAS Will Grow! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
NATGAS made a massive
Gap down but the fall
Has slowed down and
The price will soon reach
A massive horizontal support
Of 1.960$ from where
I will be expecting local
A bullish rebound
Buy!
Like, comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!