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TFM1! trade ideas

NATGAS Massive Short! SELL! My dear subscribers, My technical analysis for NATGAS is below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 4.257 Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 3.892 My Stop Loss -4.468 About Used Indicators: By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NYMEX:NG1!Short
by AnabelSignals
3
2/27/25: Nat Gas Report day/weekend set up:The video goes over my reasoning for the cold back half of March and front of April. The models do not see it, but I do!!! I show a good graphic of price vs storage (natgasweather.com). And as we shall soon see, it going to be all about storage in about six weeks!!! Today’s report was in line with industry experts and their projections for a larger than average withdrawal of 261 BCF of NG, bringing total storage to 1840 BCF. This more than 400 Bcf below last year’s bottom of 2,259 Bcf. They are also below the five-year average for end-of-winter storage of 1,870 Bcf. Storage inventories at 1,840 Bcf have already been drawn down by nearly 2,100 Bcf since the start of winter. That is more than 600 Bcf faster than last winter’s drawdown during the same period. As shown, the inverse relation between storage and pricing should keep prices elevated through the shoulder season. The increase in heating demand, electric power load, and historic LNG exports are eating into exiting supplies, as producers continue to show restraint and discipline. Last week EQT released their quarterly guidance stating that they do not plan to increase rig activity and will continue to throttle output on a day to day basis to meet spot demand. They are following a program of “tactical restraint”. EQT Corp. is not looking to invest in natural gas production growth in 2025 as it expects demand to eventually outpace supply and push prices higher in the coming years. The strategy differs from the one Expand Energy Corp. stated today. That it plans to add 600 MMcf/d of natural gas production by the end of the first quarter as part of a broader strategy to grow output and extend the reach of its marketing as fundamentals improve. After curbing output and delaying turning wells to sales last year in response to stagnant natural gas prices, the company plans to bring online 90 wells by the end of March as demand has strengthened. Most of this gas is headed to the Gulf coast to feed LNG facilities. Unlike EQT, who serves North East US and Mid-West US demand centers. Who are under supplied and have a lack of pipeline infrastructure. So mid and long-range pricing look positive for NG, but it is the short term where our bets are made. So, in the short term the weather will play a dominant role in the price structure. I expect a delay in the cold coming for later March and April, but my belief is still there, below average cold. My previous target for entry was $3.65 to renter my long position. Although earlier this week I had waivered after the weather models started to print a colder period for March 11-15, and was looking to enter a bit higher to $3.80-$3.85 level, but has since backed down. It is looking that the Tropical forcing is going to delay the SSW event talked about here by a week or so. It is still showing up in the long range, but the shorter range is starting to print warmer. I am now of the thinking that the original idea at the $3.65 level is the place to enter my longs. Once the models pick up the SSW event influenced cold around day 13,14, and 15. I’m back in long again! I entered four $3.85 puts Monday night after exiting my March puts and have held onto them after seeing the models run warmer for the next 15 days. I will decide tomorrow if I will exit them or hold them over the weekend. I entered at the $4.30 level and know when to walk away with money in the hand, but I will still wait until tonight’s and tomorrow’s mid-day runs to assess. If I do decide to hold over the weekend I will let it be known. Happy trading and good fortune Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGJ2025
by NrG_Trader
7
Nat Gas Report, Contract Rollove Day: 2/25/25The week has traded a bit stronger than expected, but the future contract rolls over tomorrow. And today there was a great deal of settlement positioning before rollover. As seen in the jump in volume at the expiration window timeframe. It is still expected that tomorrow there will be a great deal of selling into the strength of the pricing. The range of the 20-Day Bollinger Band for the March contract is more than $1.50. Last year it was closer to 30 cents. There were a great deal of contracts to settle with futures. Tomorrow we see a reversion to the mean. I closed my putts last night, at the 3930 level. I did not expect the strength that we saw today begin last night, but I had my target in sight and took action. I am now waiting for the futures to rollover, some profit to be taken and then to enter my longs for the month. I was looking at the 3650 level on the upcoming April contract, but with the Models starting to see the cold coming, like discussed, I believe my new entry point will be 3800 on the April contract. Good luck and good fortunes. Keep it burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
3
Nat Gas Video Idea 2/24/25: Recap of the Sunday night print ideaThis video goes over the reasoning and verification for my ideas that I posted last night. Price has moved as expected, hit the low of the morning just a hair above the 3900 level. I'm watching the midday HDD prints as I type and it is looking to continue to verify for the short term (two week) period and the long range (3-6 week period). I am still going to exit when the March contracts hits 3750, and enter the April contract at 3640. Enjoy the info. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025Long
by NrG_Trader
2
Nat Gas Weekly Idea 2/23/25: Contract rollover week Another double-digit gain (13.5%) for the NG market this week. Strong heating demand, record LNG production and production declines have led to a two year high for NG pricing. But that was last week, and this week brings a new set of completely different fundamentals. Production began recovering form freeze offs close to 6 BCF/d yesterday. The has not been any lasting concerns with additional OFOs (operational flow orders) issued for the upcoming week, meaning production should return to pre-freeze off levels to 103-105 BCF/d. US NG production was metered 100.2 Bcf/d Friday vs. 99.9 Bcf/d Thursday, according to Wood Mackenzie. Estimated gas production for today is approaching 103 BCF/d while demand is falling back. Domestic gas demand was set to plummet more than 10.0 Bcf/d to 123.5 Bcf/d this past weekend, the firm’s data showed. This weekends set up has been a good opportunity for shorting this current market, due to rapid price appreciation over the last two weeks. If this was the middle of January, it would be a different situation, but due to being five weeks away from the net withdrawal period of the demand season, this presents a whole new set of opportunities and issues to be watchful for. The cold spell and “Polar Vortex” have faded and market exhaustion is emerging. The 4400 level has acted as resistance. With the April contract becoming the front month contract in a few days, the seasonal fundamental will become more relevant. The European NG marker, the TTF, is down 20%, since the middle of the month. This is reminiscent of the double top of the market in 2022, when the TTF spiked and the HH benchmark double toped for yearly highs, only to drop after. History does not repeat, but it does rhyme! So, my belief is that we will see a pattern emerge, considering past behavior and adding in the short-term weather models, to line up for another tremendous entry point for longs. In the meantime, while the market panics over the impending warm up, we will use the power of meteorology and the new market structure, to short the market the next 7 days then prepare for another period of price appreciation. This coming weekend just might be one of those weekends where I sit out taking a position. I will need the models to begin to verify the coming cold for the end of March and beginning of April in the printed HDD data. But since the big boys cannot see it either, I am using the meteorology to beat them to the punch. This week I will be posting updates to the model runs for you to know what I am seeing. The market opened just above the 4000 level today and my belief is it should settle down at the 3900 level by market open in NY Monday morning. The night time model runs will be important, being the first model run of the trading week. The weeks temperatures look inline with the Phase 8 of the MJO, and we expect the MJO to continue into its reset with Phase one by next weekend and 2,3, and so on. The market is expecting its normal spring time warming and demand to back down. This week’s storage report is expected to be plus 270 BCF, which will put deficits above 230 BCF vs the 5-year average. So, there can be some expected volatility in the daily moves this week, with the models providing the input for daily swings and the general warming trend to provide market direction. I will be looking at the April contract’s 61.8% level, 3640, from its current swing low/high, to reenter a long position (which will be the current traded contract on Wednesday). I will trade the intraday volatility, after the models print and the report day print. There should be some good trading in a downward channel for the next ten days or so, intraday. As for my belief on the fundamental reasons for the price to rebound the back half of March and early April….. LNG production! This week Federal regulators have approved Plaquemines (Plaqs) export facility to produce more LNG. The facility this week hit a peak at 1.7 BCF/d in production, with an estimated capacity of 2.0 BCF/d. The company is almost complete with commissioning its nine trains, out of eight completed. It is expected to have the ninth train completed very soon to bring production up to the 1.9 BCF/d. The company has been granted approval to increase production up to 3.6 BCF/d. Venture Global (the parent company of Plaqs) is not expanding the plant to achieve the production increase. Instead, it plans to rely on train efficiencies to boost output. So, this is not going to need or have any construction delays, just an increase in efficiency. Corpus Christi has shipped out its first cargo this week and is in the process of commissioning three additional trains at the facility. It has one that is producing now and with the other two to come online add an additional 1 BCF/d. The repairs at Freeport seemed to have stabilized production and production has been at its most consistent since operation began. We expect that LNG export to end 2025 somewhere in the 17.5 BCF/d. Export has been averaging 15 BCF/d over the last twelve months, an increase of 15% by mid-April. So forward demand for the year looks promising! Additional demand for electricity…. The Edison Electric Institute reported a 10.9% increase in U.S. electricity output for the week ending February 15, highlighting strong utility-driven demand. With only 99 active natural gas drilling rigs in operation, a meaningful increase in production appears unlikely in the short term. NG power burn is now more than 17% higher than 5 years ago, and this is not including the multitude of AI facilities in active production and to go online this year. Additional demand for a late start to spring…. I will not bore you again this post about the upcoming SSW event that is currently beginning up in the stratosphere. For clarification, please see my pervious idea form Monday 2/17/25. We should expect a late spring and the heating demand should continue into early-mid April. With a colder than average early spring. Decreased storage… Again, see last week’s idea about where supply is heading. I showed how storage levels are correlated to price. The lower the storage levels the higher the price. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGJ2025
by NrG_Trader
Nat Gas Pre-Open Idea: 2/23/24The Us models trended 9 HDD warmer while the Euro trended a whopping 18 HDD warmer. Weather models have trended perfectly for the new week and roll over set up. Expecting a sizable gap lower today, with models losing double digit GWDD for the 15 day period. Roll over Tuesday afternoon, HH Spot below $4 again and heading lower today. Looking as planned. Production has bounced back up nicely from after a week of frozen ground. Although the only bullish catalyst is LNG production is above 16 BCF/d for the third straight day. Idea will be post after opening tonight. No change on an ideas that I have posted from the past week.
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
2
Nat Gas Pre Report Idea: 2/19/25 Today I exited my call options, earlier than planned. I had originally planned on exiting my calls sometime before the market opened premarket, New York, on Thursday. But the two days of short covering has led to such a massive move that it prompted me to take my profits early. Fundamentally I am looking at the same thing the big boys are looking at. The artic cold is here, production is down because of freeze offs, LNG at historic rates, big EIA withdrawal tomorrow, contract rollover Tuesday, yada, yada, yada (sounding like a broken record already!) But this is what has moved the price, plus the shorts being squeezed for the last two days (can't wait to see the COT report Friday!) And NG traders love to sell the rally. So with the expected warm up next week, and the weekend approaching, I have been talking about selling my positions ahead of the mass exit before Friday. So I always keep the phrase in the back of my head, "Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pigs get slaughtered!" So I think a $1.00 move in the price is rich enough for me. So I exited my positions this afternoon. As planned, I entered into a 5 block of $4.250 putts that I will hold over the weekend. I am expecting the price to fall back to 3735 level, which is at the 9D SMA on the NGH25 contract. At which time I plan to exit. I continue to believe that the market is a bit over extended at the moment. The price has moved above the upper SD of the BB on the continuous contract, and blowing past the 3 SD level of the BB on the current contract. On the continuous contract the 100% fib level has been reached, the RSI is approaching overbought territory, and beginning to show signs of divergence, and the RSI on the current month contract is way into overbought territory. I am firmly in belief that March will be colder than averages, but it must be remembered that the days are getting longer and the HDD going lower. We are five weeks out from the end of the withdrawal season and spring will eventually come. But fundamentally we are in a different place than the previous two years, and can expect higher pricing going into the shoulder season. Which I will begin to discuss in a few weeks. But for now, I took my profits, will ride the price down with the warmer weather coming next week, and will reenter sometime the middle of next week, probably right before next weekend. These have been fantastic weekends to hold over, if your taking the correct position! Which I believe is the case this weekend also. So good luck and fortunes to all. Keep it Burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader
3
U.S. Natural Gas and LNG Market: Demand and Supply The U.S. natural gas market remains a key focal point as production levels hold steady while seasonal demand and geopolitical factors introduce volatility. According to the latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, total U.S. natural gas inventories declined, reflecting increased consumption during winter. Meanwhile, the growing role of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in global trade is reshaping market dynamics. U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Storage Trends • Total natural gas production remains high, ensuring stable domestic supply. • Storage withdrawals have accelerated due to heating demand, keeping inventories in line with seasonal trends. • The Henry Hub spot price FRED:DHHNGSP has shown fluctuations, with short-term price spikes driven by cold weather and export activity. LNG Exports and Global Market Impact The U.S. continues to expand its LNG export capacity, making it a dominant player in global gas markets. Current exports stand at 13–14 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d), with peak capacity reaching 16 bcf/d. LNG has become a strategic tool, not only for trade but also for geopolitical influence. Key Export Destinations: Europe and Asia remain primary buyers, with European demand increasing due to reduced Russian pipeline flows. Potential Disruptions: Any restrictions on Russian LNG exports or transit issues in key regions (e.g., the Panama Canal) could further tighten supply and push prices higher. Price Outlook and Market Implications • The U.S. natural gas market is expected to remain well-supplied, preventing extreme price spikes domestically. • Global LNG prices, however, are more susceptible to geopolitical risks and supply chain disruptions. • With the Trump administration prioritizing stable domestic energy prices, LNG exports may face policy-driven limitations to prevent domestic shortages.
NYMEX:NG1!
by igorisaev
# **Natural Gas (NG1!) – Entering a Bullish Cycle?** Based on **Elliott Wave Theory**, the **first and second waves** in the larger degree have been completed, signaling the **start of a new cycle**. The current structure suggests two possible **1-2 setups**, indicating a **high probability** that the market is within an **extended third wave**. ### **Bullish Scenario (Aggressive View):** 📌 A **break above the previous peak** will confirm bullish momentum. 📌 While a corrective structure may form, any retracement is expected to be **shallow** before the next impulsive move. 📌 If this scenario unfolds, we anticipate a strong advance driven by the **sub-waves of the third wave**. ### **Key Levels to Watch:** 🎯 **First Target Range:** **$4.357 – $4.409** 🎯 **Main Target Zone:** **$5.296 – $6.183** (Expanded Target) 🚨 **Invalidation Levels:** 🔴 **Bullish structure weakens** below **$2.990**. 🔴 **Full invalidation** occurs at **$1.874**. This analysis follows a **technical approach using Elliott Wave structures** and should not be considered financial advice. As always, risk management is key.
NYMEX:NG1!Long
by Mehdi_Abbasi_EWP
5
Natural Gas in Demand ZoneWhen natural gas is in a demand zone, it typically indicates a price level or area where buying interest is strong enough to reverse or halt a downward trend. This concept is often used in technical analysis by traders to identify potential entry points for long positions. Demand Zone Definition: A demand zone is a price range where buyers are likely to step in, creating support and potentially driving prices higher. It is often identified on a price chart as an area where the price previously reversed from a downtrend. Why Natural Gas Might Be in a Demand Zone: Seasonal Factors: Natural gas demand often increases during winter (heating season) or summer (cooling season), creating strong buying interest at certain price levels. Oversold Conditions: If natural gas prices have fallen sharply, traders may see the current price as undervalued, leading to increased buying. Fundamental Support: Factors like low inventory levels, production cuts, or geopolitical events can create strong demand at specific price points. How Traders Might React Long Positions: Traders may consider entering long positions if natural gas is in a demand zone, anticipating a price rebound. Stop-Loss Orders: To manage risk, traders often place stop-loss orders just below the demand zone.
MCX:NATURALGAS1!
by trad_corn
Nat Gas Weekly Update: 2/17/25Weather, Demand, Exports, Storage, Contract Rollover Natural gas pricing acted as predicted for the trading week. After rallying for the week over 12%, it hit resistance at the upper band of the BB. After selling my positions at the 3730 level I took my profits and entered a short position which I had plan to exited at 3590. I did hold my shorts over the weekend, placing a sell order before close on Friday. I entered another set of $4. 00 calls an hour after opening Sunday night, after the volatility settled down to aid pricing. I am predicting one more bounce higher for the week, before the weather turns for the last week of the month. I am expecting another run back up to 4000 sometime after the news of Polar Vortexes, freeze offs, production declines, historic LNG productions, and a very very large EIA report. Whooo, that’s a mouth full!!! I am expecting to exit my positions sometime around Thursday morning before the market opens in NY. But I am quite excited as things continue to line up for March, and possibly April. The video will discuss my beliefs and the information which I hope will verify, again. I will continue to watch support at the 9D SMA around the 3500 mark and begin to pay close attention at the 78.6% retracement lever around 3750. I am beginning to chart off the continuous contract since we are coming up to the last full week for the current contract. I prefer to trade off the current contract chart until that last week, on all the positions I trade. I predict an upward channel, trading between these levels until we have velocity below/above each of those prices. So, there should be a nice trading range for three days until selling begins in earnest for the contract roll over. This week will be down right frigid from the Rocky Mountain to the East Coast of the US, with special attention up to the Appalachian Mountain. Throw in the rumors, and rumors of a big East Coast super snow storm, and my mouth begins to water for freeze offs. Also, LNG production continues to edge to historic levels as the cold air aids in helping the physics behind compressing all that NG. Plus, Europe at low storage levels and an increase in Asian buying. Throw in historic February demand for heating, and we have a nice set up for next weeks EIA report. February is looking to be one of the top three supply withdrawal months in record, followed by January coming in at number 2. Rigg activity continues to stay at depressed rates, and this is setting up 2025 to be a very promising year for upward pricing. The talk and verification about the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is continuing to evolve, which has lent itself to some of the coldest March’s in history past. Not to mention April! So, my belief is that we continue to draw in storage going into the shoulder season when April begins. Which the EIA is starting to assess in its weekly STEO report. They are predicting HH spot to average close to 3800 for the remainder of 2025! So, keep those shovels ready, and the heaters burning, because after next weeks moderation in US temps, I think the Ground Hog was right. Remember that the meteorology will again beat the models! It will get warm days 8-14. But I am going to look to enter the short and hold on until the models begin to see the cold returning around the end of next week. Next week will probably be a great weekend to hold onto longs over the weekend. Winter is sticking around. Keep it burning!
NYMEX:NGH2025
by NrG_Trader