2024-10-22 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Oil - Bull surprise and the actual breakout above both the daily 20ema and the bear trend line. Bear gap to 72.6 is not yet closed but with good follow through tomorrow they could get it. I do think longs are much better here than shorts and we could finally disappoint bears again. Could retest the bear trend line tomorrow, that means that a deep pullback to 69.7 or 70 is possible. There I would look for longs again.
comment: Bullish breakout and my major trend reversal theory was good. Bulls now should not let this drop below 69.5 again. We could see a retest of ~70 again before we go higher. I will only look for longs on this tomorrow and anything below 70.5 is a decent trade.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 71
bull case: Targets for the bulls are now 72.6 to close the bear gap and above that is 75. No more words needed for this.
Invalidation is below 69.5.
bear case: Bears need to get this below 69.5 again to continue the trading range or otherwise we see a bigger move upwards to the given targets. Have we already seen the giving up from the bears today? If we stay above 70.5, then it’s likely so. If they get it below 69.5 again, next target is 69.26 where I expect most bull stops to be and that would be a very important price for both sides. If bears print 69.5, a continuation of the trading range 68 - 70.5 is most likely.
Invalidation is above 72.3.
short term: Bullish as long as we stay above 69.5. Neutral below.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Will do a swing long on a pullback tomorrow.
trade of the day: Long since bar 6 or the double bottom around 69.3.