#202431 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
Quote from last week:
comment: Only question right now is, is that minor bear trend line support at 78.6 holding or do we break below? Friday was a big bear bar closing on it’s low and we can expect follow through but we don’t know if we get a lower high first. Not more magic to it. Horrible place to initiate trades, you have to be patient and let the market show you where it wants to go.
comment: Bears answered my question on Monday and just broke below and closed below. Whatever macro dude’s who “know” Oil writing, this market wants to go down and it’s going down. Oil found an intermediate bottom exactly at the 50% pb that is on my chart for many months but it’s the same for Gold as we are in a tight bear channel down and as long as it holds, it’s bearish. 74 is the first target the bears will probably hit over the next 2 weeks.
current market cycle: trading range (triangle)
key levels: 74-83
bull case: Bulls failed on Monday and buying new lows for scalps and they are also quick to exit those longs. Got nothing for them with the current structure. If they manage to break above 80 again, it’s likely that bears give up until we hit 81ish again but that’s a weak argument at best. Another possibility is that bulls will fight for 76, since it’s the middle of the range and where most volume was traded over the last months.
Invalidation is below 76.
bear case: Bears have all the arguments on their side and the bear channel is the main pattern to be traded here. 74 is my target for the next 2 weeks. Any pullback from the bulls should stay below 79, which is also the daily 20ema. Above that price and bears have failed and might step aside until market reaches 80/81 again.
Invalidation is above 79.
outlook last week:
“short term: Neutral until clear break below 78 with follow through. Not interested in buying.”
→ Last Sunday we traded 78.64 and now we are at 77.16. Outlook was good since the low was 76.03 and that was a trade for 260 ticks.
short term: Bearish for 74. Any stop fro that would be 79.5
medium-long term: We are seeing the big triangle playing out between 72 and 82/84. The high of the triangle got tested until mid of April and we have now tested the lows around 72.5. We are at the bear trend line and odds favor the bears if they stay below 86.27 for trading back down below 76 again.
current swing trade: Took most off from my shorts from 82.58, at 77.
chart update: Added bear channel and I see this down move as a two legged move inside the big trading range.
