CRUDE OIL MCX - HIGHER HIGH HIGHER LOW CONCEPTSharing Crudeoil Study
Time frame - 15 min
Concept - HL,LL,HH,LH
This chart is only for educational purpose
WBS1! trade ideas
2024-11-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - oilGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
oil - Neutral. 3 legs down are done and bulls got a couple of 1h bars that closed above the 1h 20ema. We have formed a descending triangle which will break out tomorrow and I do think a break to the upside is much more likely than below but it could happen. Bulls want 70 and bears 67. Below 67 would be 66.72 but I doubt bears can get there.
comment : Market is trying to find a bottom. Can wait for a breakout and not trade this contracting range. Bears want 67 and then 66.72 and bulls 70 if they can break above the bear trend line. Not more magic to it.
current market cycle: trading range (big triangle on the daily chart)
key levels: 63 - 78
bull case: Bulls see the 3 clear legs down and now want a correction to at least the 50% retracement at 70.30. Today they finally printed multiple bars above the 1h 20ema and they are producing good buying pressure at 68. Bears will likely try 1-2 more times at 68 before they could give up and we see the upside breakout.
Invalidation is below 67.50.
bear case: I do think it’s tough to be a bear below 68. Downside could be limited to 66.72 and where would you put your stop? 69? Could work but I would not. Market has not traded below 67 for more than 5 days in September. Ultimately bears want to retest the October low at 65.74 and they have more arguments on their side than the bulls and yet I still don’t think the risk:reward selling below 68 is worth it.
Invalidation is above 69.3.
short term: Neutral until bulls break 69.3. No interest in selling below 68.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20 : No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buying 68 has been profitable and will likely continue to be.
1st wave upwards?Analyzing the NYMEX:CL1! (Crude Oil Futures) chart, the current level may serve as a potential reversal point due to several factors:
Higher High Formation: On November 7th, the price established a higher high. If the current candle forms a higher low, it could signal the continuation of an upward trend.
Bullish SMA Crossover: A few days ago, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed above the 50-day SMA, indicating a bullish momentum shift.
Seasonality and Macroeconomic Factors: Historically, crude oil exhibits bullish seasonality starting in the second half of December. Additionally, global instability and the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts may contribute to higher commodity prices.
These elements suggest a favorable outlook for crude oil prices in the near term.
Oil is staring down the barrel of a bearish breakdownA stronger USD, prospects of a deregulated oil market alongside disappointment with China stimulus and weighed on crude prices on Monday. WTI is toying with a bearish breakout of a pattern which projects a downside target around the mid 50s. But how realistic is that? Let's take a look.
MS.
MCL Short 11/10/2024MCL is in a sideways trend but price closed below 4hr 21 and 200 EMA. So, taking down momentum play. Placed a short position in low volume SZ. Hence, taking half risk. Risk= $120. Target= 1:1 and gap fill.
Oil looking for 71.86$oil now above demand zone (67.19 -68.38) and there is Bullish Divergence if it's still above these levels and if price action appears it will be good long trade to reach 71.86 / 77.74 / 80.18 / 84.48 / 87.59.
Good Luck
Bearish signals piling up for crude oil pricesA lack of direct stimulus measures in China likely contributed to the rough end for crude oil last week, with prices not only breaking minor uptrend support but also closing below the 50-day moving average.
It’s the latter that’s got me eyeing a potential short setup. The ratio of how often the price has traded through this level versus how often the break has stuck is notable over recent months. The uptrend in RSI (14) has been trashed, and MACD is on the verge of confirming a bearish signal, skewing risks lower.
However, I’d like to see a break and hold below $69.74 first, the low hit on US election night. The price bounced strongly from there, so it looms as potentially key level for near-term directional risks.
If that level breaks, shorts could be initiated with a stop above either the low or the 50-day moving average. Targets include $66.72 (October 29 low), with $66.33 and $65.27 next.
If the price reverses above the 50-day moving average and closes there, the bearish bias is negated, opening up potential bullish setups.
Good luck!
DS
#202445 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil futures: Neutral between 68 - 73. Bulls have no tried to have a daily close above 73 for a month and could not get it. Friday’s bear bar looks like the turning point from which we will test lower. First bear target is a daily close below 70, followed by 68 and then 67. I doubt we get below 66.8 and rather print another nested triangle.
Quote from last week:
comment: The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
comment: Market is now trying for 4 weeks to get below 73 and still failing. Friday’s bar is decent enough that bears could have given up and market has to drop down to 68 or lower to 67 to find more buyers. The trading range 68 - 73 is still not broken and until it is, that is the range to play. I just expecting bears to be stronger next week than the bulls.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 68 - 73
bull case: Bulls failed so many times below 73 now, they will probably only try again at 68 or even lower. We are making higher lows since September, so for now I expect buyers to step in above 67.5. If bulls keep it above 70, I would be surprised and we chop more between 70 and 73 until one side clearly gives up.
Invalidation is below 66.7.
bear case: Bears established strong resistance under 73 and we still have an open gap there. Their next target is to get a daily close below 70 to make much more bulls cover and then I expect the selling to accelerate down to 68 or even 67. Funny thing to watch currently is that the daily, weekly and monthly 20ema are as flat and close together like I have never seen it on markets before. This market is in absolute balance between 70 and 72. Mean reversion strategies for Oil must have made a killing in 2024.
Invalidation is above 73.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
→ Last Sunday we traded 69.49 and now we are at 70.38. Good outlook but it’s not hard to be neutral and be right about it in this market.
short term: Neutral again. Range is unbroken, play it until it breaks.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10 : Unless an event comes up, this will very likely close around 70 for the year.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
MCL Short 11/6/2024MCL is in an uptrend. But price made a LH DT. CL inventories report is bearish with high supply. Placed a short position in HV SZ. Taking half risk because it is a countertrend trade. Risk= $125. Target= 1:1 and gap fill.
MCL Long 11/5/2024MCL is in an uptrend. Placed a long position in confluence HV DZ (the upper zone). Waited for price to break previous high. Risk=$220. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MCL Long 11/3/2024MCL is in an uptrend in 4hr chart. Placed a long position in 1hr HV DZ below MA. Taking half risk because daily and 4hr trends don't match. Also, the zone has been tested. Risk= $120. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
Falling wedge Breakout in CRUDE?Crudeoil Update (4-Hour Timeframe)
Pattern Formation: Falling Wedge, typically suggesting a potential breakout to the upside.
Current Setup: Crudeoil has taken support at the 5900 level and is now trending upward within the wedge.
Entry Above: 6025
Target 1: 6100
Target 2: 6220
Target 3: 6380
Stop-Loss: 5970
Analysis: Price has shown resilience at support, and a breakout could be triggered above 6025. Watching closely for an upward move.
Risk Management: Ensure proper stop-loss placement to guard against reversals.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis based on current data, not financial advice. Always trade with caution.
Short Scalp TradeI entered late on this but before this post. CBA to right a full description for this so lets just see if target hits
CL longI see a possible long so taking it. h&n after sweeping NY pm session low. Am assuming 80% chance to hit target. Don't take this trade I am testing theory lol
CRUDE OIL "3 Heads Monster"Could this 3 Heads & Shoulders come to live ?
Built in "Close Price Line Chart" (Candle = Same formation)
Small (black) H&S Target @ 59.34
Medium (orange) H&S Target @ 44.32
Large (blue) H&S Target @ 10.29
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: Neutral between 68 - 72. Market is in balance inside this range and for now no side has clearly better arguments for a bigger impulse. Market formed another nested triangle inside the big one. Which means buyers and sellers are in balance.
Quote from last week:
comment: Bulls actually managed to hold it above 68 and the trend line but failed to close the bear gap completely. This leaves us in nowhere land between 70-72 and a proper triangle. Play that until it’s clearly broken. No more deeper analysis needed.
comment : The trading range expanded some but not much. On the weekly chart the September and October lows do seem to be respected and holding but since bulls fail to trade above 72.33, we are forming more nested triangles inside the big one on the monthly chart. For now the range is 65 - 72.33 until broken.
current market cycle: trading range (nested triangles on multiple tf)
key levels : 65 - 72.33
bull case: Bulls need a daily close above 72.7 for a chance of retesting north of 75. Again. There is a very good chance last weeks low 66.72 can hold for now. Bulls made 3 higher highs the past 3 trading days but look at the bars. They scream weakness and the close below 70 was bearish as well. Bulls do not have many arguments here.
Invalidation is below 65.
bear case: Bears keeping this below 70 is much stronger than I expected this for the past 3 weeks. As long as they are not letting the bulls get consecutive bull bars above the daily 20ema, the bears remain in control. Yet I do think sideways is more likely than a break below 65. Last weeks price action was disappointing for both sides, which is why I continue to be neutral on this.
Invalidation is above 72.3.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral 68-70 but leaning bearish near 71. Not the best spot to trade currently.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71.78 and now we are at 69.49. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again. Clear range and bearish pattern with limited downside. Scalp and don’t overstay your welcome in positions.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-20: No idea where this wants to go in the remaining 2 months of this year so I am neutral until we have a better pattern. The big triangle on the weekly chart is alive and until that changes, no more updates.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
Nothing changed for WTI I have been watching this chart all year and let's see if the USW election this week livens things up !!
Over targeting low $60's maybe $50, lets see
CL Long 10/31/2024HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!!
CL is in an uptrend. Placed a long position in confluence HV DZ. Risk= $240. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
MCL Long 10/30/2024MCL is in a SW + uptrend because price closed above 4hr MA. Taking a long position in DZ below MA. Taking half risk because zone has been tested. Chances of less unfilled orders. We have 2 zones overlapping. I chose the lower one because of SW trend. Risk= $90. Target= 1:1 and 3:1.
oillooking oil long to take out Asia BSL possible, failure to hold above 67.33 but also looking for ny lunch to hold if the move up continues. Under previous day close then this looks a lot more bearish. As of now PM buyside has been swept and is holding, 2 time we are testing it after the ential break of it. this is looking like it wants to come down and test pdc and possibly some sell side before moving up. Coming up to a low on the daily 66.45, loss of sellside then look for that to be taken out.
Bullish Crude Oil Trade IdeaLooking for crude oil to trend higher as supply stays tight and demand remains steady. Targeting a move up to key resistance, with stops below recent support to manage risk
Crude oil falls as geopolitical fears move to the back burner Crude Oil closed lower overnight at $67.38 (-6.17%), erasing all and more of the previous week's rally following Israel's restrained weekend response to Iran's October 1st attack.
With geopolitical concerns on the back burner for now, this week's data-rich US calendar will provide more insights into the demand outlook for crude oil ahead of next week's US election and China's NPC standing committee expected to reveal the details of the country's fiscal stimulus package.
Technically, providing crude oil remains below the $71.50/72.50 resistance area, the risks remain to the downside, including a retest and break of the September $65.27 low.
