Crude Outlook4h orderflow is bearish, though it's also slightly rangy. 15m orderflow is currently aligned to the 4h, and we've got a 15m mitigation chain coming off of the 4h supply zone. Shorts make sense for the moment.
WBS1! trade ideas
Oil Price Rebound to Face Negative Slope in 50-Day SMAThe price of oil may attempt to retrace the decline from the last week’s high ($72.40) as it initiates a series of higher highs and lows.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Keep in mind, the price of oil bounced back the January low ($64.37) to hold within the yearly range, and a break/close above $70.50 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement) may push crude back towards $72.80 (50% Fibonacci retracement).
Next area of interest comes in around the monthly high ($73.23) but the price of oil may track the negative slope in the 50-Day SMA ($71.88) if it continues to hold below the moving average.
Failure to hold above $67.30 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) may push the price of oil towards $65.40 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement), with the next region of interest coming in around the monthly low ($64.09).
--- Written by David Song, Strategist at FOREX.com
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
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crude oil level markHello,
crude oil level mark,Green line mark as Resistance & red Line mark as support wait for break out, overall trend is berish.
if u like my analysis, comment it, like it.
MCL: One-Two Punch Could Lift Crude Oil to Higher GroundNYMEX: Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! )
On September 18th, the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rate by a supersized 50 basis points, ushering a long-awaited monetary easing cycle.
Six days later, on September 24th, China introduced a broad stimulus package to revive its economy. It includes cutting interest rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, supporting the property sector, and injecting liquidity into the stock market. Specifically,
• The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, cut its 7-day reverse repurchase rate to 1.5% from 1.7%
• The PBOC slashed the reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions by 0.5%
• The PBOC lowered home mortgage downpayment requirements to 15%; previously, those buying houses other than primary residence were required to put down 25%
• Separately, the PBOC would advise banks to lower mortgage interest rate by 0.5%
• The PBOC also announced a new RMB $1 trillion long-term credit facility (equivalent to US$143 billion). It allows financial institutions to use their stocks, bonds and ETF funds as collateral to obtain funding from the PBOC. The use of fund is specifically earmarked for credit lending to publicly traded companies for stock buyback
Each of these policies is a major stimulus measure. Putting together, they have the potential to reshape the economic outlook for China, and for the rest of the world as well.
Following the announcement, Chinese stock markets clocked their best week in 16 years as the CSI 300 rallied 15.7%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index recorded a weekly gain of 12.75%. On Friday, the CSI 300 climbed 4.47% to close at 3,703.68, its highest level in a year, while the HSI rose 3.32% to 20,586.94, its highest since February 2023.
On Monday, September 30th, China’s SSE Composite Index rallied 8.06%, closing at 3,336.50. This marks a nine-day winning streak, its best day since September 2008 and its highest point since August 2023.
In 2024, China’s economy has slowed significantly. Last week, China released its industrial profit data for August, which saw a 17.8% plunge year on year. On a year-to-date basis, profits at large industrial firms grew at 0.5% to 4.65 trillion yuan ($663.47 billion) for the first eight months, down from 3.6%.
However, China’s supersized monetary policies could help its economy turn a corner. It is highly expected that China’s Ministry of Finance will follow suit to announce new fiscal stimulus and add more ammunition to fuel economic growth.
Together, the extraordinary measures installed by the Top 2 economies, which account for 40% of global GDP, could help improve the global economy in a meaningful way.
WTI Crude Oil: Higher Demand from Economic Growth
While it is still too early to quantify how much the global economy would benefit from these stimulus measures, we could expect higher industrial output from the government credit extension and the lower business cost of capital. The potential impact could be huge for stocks, bonds, foreign exchange and commodities. Today, my analysis concentrates on crude oil.
The Fed rate cut and China Stimulus package both exceeded market expectations. These are game changers big enough to reverse the declining trend of crude oil prices. Recent escalation of Middle East conflict would only add to the uncertainty of oil supply.
In my opinion, WTI could reclaim the previous levels of $76, $83 and $89, consequently. The expected stimulus from China’s Ministry of Finance and the November 6th FOMC rate cut could support the upward trend if they meet or exceed market expectations.
The recent CFTC Commitment of Traders report confirms a shift to the long positions:
• As of September 24th, total open interest (OI) of WTI futures was 2,242,432 contracts
• Managed Money held 210,469 long and 48,541 short, a 4.3-to-1 ratio
• Compared to the previous week, the long positions increased by 24,734, while the shorts decreased by 3,969 contracts; this shows a bullish view building up
For someone with a bullish view of crude oil, he could establish a long position in NYMEX Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). The contract has a notional value of 100 barrels. At 1/10 the size of benchmark WTI Crude Oil contracts, Micro WTI futures offer the same robust trading transparency and price discovery with smaller margin requirements. At Friday closing price of $68.63, each November contract (MCLX) is worth $6,863. CME Group requires an initial margin of $596 for each MCL contract, long or short.
Hypothetically, if WTI bounced back to $76.88, its previous high on August 5th, the price increase of $8.25 would produce a gain of $825 (=8.25x100) for a long position.
The risk of buying crude oil is that the follow-up government stimulus packages were less than market expectations, which could undermine the growth forecast. To hedge the downside risk, an experienced trader could consider the use of put options on WTI crude oil futures.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Crude Outlook4h orderflow appears to have realigned to the downside after mitigating the 4h flip. 15m orderflow is currently aligned bearish as well with a weak 15m low. Looking for shorts until we see 15m orderflow make moves in earnest to the upside.
LIGHT CRUDE OIL 1W COMODITIES - CRUDE is still DOWNLIGHT CRUDE OIL 1W COMODITIES - CRUDE is still DOWN
It is difficult to understand the current context of raw materials in relation to their behaviour in previous times, and above all what is happening with oil.
Until very recently, a conflict in the Middle East meant increases in the price per barrel. At the moment, the hornet's nest is stirred up, but it does not seem to be enough. The Israeli conflict with its close neighbours would have been more than enough for this scenario of increases, and even more so when a nuclear power like Iran is directly mentioned.
However, the crude oil market is in a downward spiral that has not yet hit bottom. Whether it is due to the threat of electric cars, the use of renewable energies or any other reason that occurs to us why the oil market is currently bearish.
Regardless of the factors that have brought the price to $70 per barrel, we can consider oil (black gold) as an alternative to gold or other reserve assets.
If the technology market turns around, everyone will run around like headless chickens and this could be a good safe haven.
As for the strategy to follow based on Technical Analysis, our position remains bearish until the price finds a support zone:
SUPPORT 1: 57 - 61
SUPPORT 2: 34 - 39
As long as it does not break the bearish channel, we will follow the evolution of the price until it gives buy signals and we will pay special attention to the areas marked as supports.
Once our strategy is defined, it is a matter of waiting to enter at the right time.
TradeX Bot, you can configure BUY and SELL strategies on futures, so our way of approaching the market will offer us opportunities whether the market goes up or down.
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This tool is in the development process and the BETA will soon be ready for testing.
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I share with you my technical analysis assessments on certain values that I follow as part of the strategies I design for my portfolio, but I do not recommend anyone to operate based on these indications. Inform yourself, train yourself and build your own strategies when investing. I only hope that my comments help you on your own path :)
CRUDE**CrudeOil:**
This week's forecast is for the price to retest the 65.54 level and bounce back to a bearish trend.
#202440 - priceactiontds - weekly update - wti crude oil futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
wti crude oil: 50% pullback is around 68.20 and we are at 68.18. I favor the bulls that they printed a higher low major trend reversal here and 67 will hold. The pattern on the 1h looks like market is forming a round bottom which could lead to a big cup & handle pattern. If they get above 69 on Monday, I do expect 71.5 quickly after an likely a hit of the bear trend line around 72.5. Below 66.8 bears are favored for retest of 65.
Quote from last week:
comment: Low effort comment last week. Deal with it. Bulls have formed a small pullback bull trend from the 64 low and bears selling below 67 are still trapped. Bears have not gotten one daily bar below the prior bar during the past 8 days. No reason to expect this to change all of a sudden.
comment: Bears finally came around last week and got a decent pullback to the 50% pullback from the recent bull leg. At 68.20 market is in total balance and I can’t be anything but neutral. I do think bulls are slightly favored and the 67 low could very well hold. Above 69 I favor the bulls, below 67 the bears.
current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 64-74
bull case: Bulls want this to be a higher low major trend reversal and 67 to hold. If they manage that, they can print up to 73 to test the bear trend line starting mid July. As of now, we are at the 50% pb and the pattern does not give you any confirmation. You have to wait for it or trade in the probability with a potentially higher reward if you take the long here. Bulls need to stay above 67 though.
Invalidation is below 67.
bear case: Bears printed decent bear bars Wednesday & Thursday and it’s reasonable to expect more sideways movement because they want to retest 65 or lower. Same argument for the bears as for the bulls, we are at the 50% pb and there is no confirmation for either side. Below 67 bulls could have their stops and would wait for 64/65 before longing this again.
Invalidation is above 69.
outlook last week:
short term: Bullish near the 4h 20ema until it stops working. Take profits at new highs unless bulls show even bigger strength.
→ Last Sunday we traded 71 and now we are at 68.18. 4h ema buy worked on Monday but then it stopped on Wednesday. Meh outlook.
short term: Neutral. Bullish above 69 and bearish below 67.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-22: Bears channel is the main pattern right now but bulls are trying to test the upper trend line. There we will see if the bear trend is has another leg down or we move sideways. There is an argument that the spike below 69 was a trap and we continue inside a range 69 - 75/77.
current swing trade: None
chart update: removed broken bull trend lines
crude oil level markHello,
crude oil level mark wait for break out, Green line mark as Resistance & Red line mark as Support. wait for break out down side level achieve in few days.
crude oil level markhello,
crude oil level mark, green line mark as resistance & red line mark as support, wait for breakout.
Crude Oil upside Target 71.70Crude oil is presenting a promising buying opportunity as it approaches a crucial support level at $66. This level has demonstrated significant resilience, making it an ideal point for traders looking to enter the market. Our target for this trade is set at $71.70, which aligns with key resistance levels that could be tested as the market moves upward.
In addition, our proprietary indicator has signaled a buying opportunity on the daily chart, further validating our bullish stance. The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add another layer of urgency, as such instability often drives oil prices higher due to supply concerns.
As we navigate through these market dynamics, now is an opportune time to consider adding crude oil to your portfolio. Keep an eye on price action around the $66 support, and be prepared for potential upward momentum towards our target of $71.70.
Buying at Current Label
Stoploss - 66
First Target 70
Second Target 71
Third Target 71.70
Crude oil bearish set up, 4 Hours trendline respected to a teeAs you can see the 4 Hour trendline is respected to a T.
The fact that recent bullish correction was abruptly stopped with a significant sell off followed means that selling pressure is above the average. It will be tested on Monday September 30th when geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will be absorbed by the market.
Light Crude Oil Futures: Mid East Tensions Fuel Price Surge!Light Crude Oil Futures (CL): NYMEX:CL1!
As mentioned in our morning briefing, oil is currently extremely interesting, partly due to increasing tensions in the Middle East and the destruction of oil reserves there as well as in Russia. Consequently, oil prices have surged significantly. We are currently at a level of $85, but we still consider it quite likely that the Wave Y and the overarching Wave II have not yet concluded. We expect a three-part movement towards Y, with this Y anticipated to be in the range between 127.2% and 161.8% of a Wave C. This would place it between $63.2 and $57.4, nearly forming a double bottom with Wave ((b)) at $63.64. We would invalidate this scenario and consider a bullish outlook if we surpass the $90 mark in Crude Oil Futures. Should the price fall from here, we would then expect a five-wave structure downwards. However, caution is advised with oil due to the significant political and geopolitical influences on its price. The upcoming elections at the end of the year are particularly noteworthy, as a lower gasoline price in America is hugely important for electoral success, ensuring wins. With rising oil prices and the depletion of reserves, with hardly any reserves left in America, it will likely be necessary to purchase a large amount of oil. Considering the current economic stance of America, this task appears challenging. There is only one option if the goal is to lower oil prices for repurchasing. Even a $20 difference is substantial when buying as much oil as a country the size of America needs. Therefore, we still expect prices to fall further before we see a reversal.
Crude Oil (CL1!): Waiting for the perfect entry after declineWe have continued to see crude oil prices fall lower and lower since we first analyzed it five months ago. The recent price decline is largely attributed to a worsening demand outlook. According to Commerzbank, the post-pandemic normalisation of demand growth in China has sharply deteriorated. Between April and July, oil demand was even lower than the previous year, and data released last weekend offers little hope for improvement in Chinese crude oil processing for August.
Additionally, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for global oil demand down to 900,000 barrels per day, with China accounting for just 20% of that growth. What was once a driver of demand is now seen as a drag on the market. The IEA projects that oil demand in China will rise by 260,000 barrels per day by 2025.
With the continued struggles of global oil demand on one side and Middle East tensions on the other, it makes sense to set a limit order on crude oil as we closely watch how well NYMEX:CL1! respects the key levels on the chart. We're still targeting the $63.23-$57 range for a potential buy-in as we continue to monitor the market for an ideal entry point.
Crude Outlook4h orderflow and 15m orderflow appear to be bearish, though ranging. Waiting for15m mitigation chain failure to confirm movement to the bottom of the range.
Two weeks up, two days unwound: Bearish crude oil setupCrude oil is one of the few commodities that hasn’t participated in the broader rally this week, weighed down by a report on Thursday that Saudi Arabia will sacrifice higher prices to protect market share.
Even before the report dropped there were signals crude was staring at downside, with a key reversal on Wednesday setting the tone. The gains crude took weeks to achieve have been unwound in two sessions, suggesting it’s far easier to sell rallies that buy dips in this environment. That view is reinforced by the uptrend break in RSI (14), a bearish signal on momentum that looks like it’s about to be confirmed by MACD.
Thursday’s rout sent WTI through $67.65, a level that has acted as something of a pivot point for prices recently. Given its proximity, it creates a level to build bearish setups around.
You could sell around these levels, but my preference would be to wait to see whether the price can take out Thursdays low of $67 first. You could then set a tight stop above $67.65 for protection. On the downside, $64.10 would be an obvious target.
While the price and momentum signals are undeniably bearish, being close to quarter-end and with ample optimism out there about the global economy given China’s latest stimulus measures, I’m determined to let the near-term price action to tell me what to do. If it can’t break Thursdays lows, or reverses back above $67.65 and closes there, it would question the near-term bearish bias.
Good luck!
DS
CRUDEOIL FORMING FALLING WEDGECrude Oil Update (4-Hour Timeframe)
[
b]Bullish Indicators Identified: A breakout from a falling wedge pattern is anticipated. Price is expected to first take support from the current zone before a breakout occurs.
Key Levels:
Support: 5480
Resistance: 5830
Breakout Confirmation: Wait for price to hold at support before confirming the breakout towards higher levels.
Risk Management: Always use stop-loss strategies to minimize risks in case of unexpected price movement.
Disclaimer: This technical analysis is based on the provided data and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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What’s Putting Crude Oil Prices Under Pressure?At a Glance
With vehicle efficiency up and China's economy slowing, WTI crude oil prices experienced late summer lows, though they have since started to rebound
Driving would need to increase by nearly 2% each year to keep fuel demand stable
Crude oil prices fell sharply in late August and early September. Does this mean that oil is a bargain?
The answer is complex. For starters, OPEC+ has taken 3.6 million barrels per day off of the market over the past two years. Secondly, geopolitical tensions remain high. What explains oil’s weakness despite these factors that ordinarily might have supported prices?
Vehicle Efficiency
The average car in model year 2024 will likely be able to drive as much as 24% further on the same amount of fuel as a similar car from model year 2012. Since a car typically lasts about 12 years, this means that each year drivers around the world need to drive about 2% further than the year before just to keep demand stable.
In the U.S., drivers aren’t driving any further than they were back in 2019.
Demand From China
Last year, 35% of new cars sold in China were EVs, and this year that could grow to over 50%. China’s economy is also growing more slowly than in the past. Since 2005, oil prices have often peaked about one year after peaks in China’s pace of growth. China’s growth rate last crested in 2021, and oil prices peaked a year later in 2022.
Moreover, China’s economy decelerated sharply over the summer which might deprive oil of a critical source of demand growth going into late 2024 and into next year.
Finally, watch for OPEC+ decisions later this year, which could potentially boost output.
If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out CME Group data plans available on TradingView to suit your trading needs: tradingview.com/cme/
By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group
*CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc.
**All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CRUDE OILPreferably suitable for scalping and accurate as long as you watch carefully the price action with the drawn areas.
With your likes and comments, you give me enough energy to provide the best analysis on an ongoing basis.
And if you needed any analysis that was not on the page, you can ask me with a comment or a personal message..
Enjoy Trading... ;)
DOUBLE TOP PATTERN | CRUDEOIL - SEP 25Crude Oil (1 Hour Timeframe)
Pattern: Double top spotted in crude oil.
Bearish Indicators Identified: Crude oil is trading within a falling wedge pattern, hinting at potential for a bearish breakout. The price is testing key support zones while repeatedly rejecting at the resistance.
Fundamental Outlook: Weaker-than-expected Chinese demand and Fed rate cut expectations are applying downward pressure on crude prices, although OPEC+ production cuts continue to provide support.
Key Levels: Watching for movement below 6040 for confirmation of bearish trend continuation.
Targets: 6000, 5900, 5850
Breakout Confirmation: A strong move below 6040 will confirm the breakout. Above 6200 could signal reversal.
Risk Management: Set stop losses to manage risk.
Disclaimer: This is a technical analysis and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results.
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WTI tests 71.50-72.50 resistance zoneOil traders mull over the demand outlook with China's outlook improving after a slew of stimulus, but the US outlook in question after weak consumer confidence data. EIA stockpiles are due later.
Oil trades below its falling trendlines and its 200 SMA. The price has recovered from a September low of 65.50. However, the recovery has run into resistance at the 71.50-72.50 zone, which buyers will need to overcome to negate the near-term downtrend. A rise above this resistance zone opens the door to 75.00, the falling trendline resistance, and 77.25, the 200 SMA.
Failure to rise above 71.50-72.50 could see the price ease back towards 70.00 before bringing 65.50 into focus.
