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BMC1! trade ideas

Bitcoin: A US Reserve CurrencyCME: Micro Bitcoin Futures ( CME:MBT1! ) On the morning of March 2nd, President Donald Trump posted a tweet to reinforce his commitment to a Crypto Strategic Reserve, including XRP, SOL and ADA. Cryptocurrency market took off immediately. Despite not being mentioned in the tweet, Bitcoin shot up from $78,400 to $83,900, and Ethereum from $2,090 to $2,240. Later in the afternoon, President Trump posted an update and clarified that BTC and ETH will be in the Reserve. “I also love Bitcoin and Ethereum!”, he tweeted. At the time of this writing, BTC is quoted $94,308, up 20.3% since the first tweet. ETH is trading at $2,520, up 20.6% within the day. We are in a new age of cryptocurrencies, where BTC, ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA just gained the official backing of the US Government. This day has been in the making for months. • On May 24, 2024, then presidential candidate Trump promised to launch a national crypto stockpile if he wins the election. Investors warmed to this idea and Bitcoin lifted 18% • On November 5, 2024, Trump won the US election. Market cheered for the most pro-crypto president and Bitcoin shot up 57% in a month • On January 23, 2025, President Trump signed the “Executive Order to establish United States leadership on digital financial technology.” Bitcoin went up 17% • Recent events have brought bitcoin down 28% since reaching its all-time-high of $109,241. In a matter of two tweets, the crypto market has completely turned around Bitcoin for the Long Haul A year ago, I published this market commentary, “A Bitcoin Bull Run?”, and laid out the key drivers for bitcoin’s long-term rise. Limited supply, increased demand and excessive liquidity helped bitcoin prices doubled in a year. In my opinion, these tailwinds remains intact for bitcoin in the coming months. On top of these, we now have the explicit endorsement from a sitting US president. Therefore, I stay bullish for holding bitcoin for the long haul. Trading with Micro Bitcoin Futures On “HODL with a Twist”, published on May 6, 2024, I explored using Futures Rollover strategy to invest in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures ( LSE:MBT ). This strategy worked nicely in the past, and I favor to continue deploying it. The paragraphs below provide a brief update with new contract months and new price data. Firstly, using futures over spot bitcoin provides these compelling advantages: • Capital efficiency in using margins. A trader could invest with as little as $2,075 to take on the full exposure of $9,431 (1/10th of a bitcoin) • Futures contracts come with build-in leverage. For MBT, it is approximately 4.5 times (= 9431/2075). If bitcoin moves 10% in your favor, you could gain 45% with futures • Price protection. MBT has a daily price limit (limit-up and limit-down) at 10%. In a volatile day with big moves, the Exchange will pause trading at the prescribed limits Secondly, futures contracts have a limited lifespan that will influence the outcome of your trades and exit strategy. Micro Bitcoin futures are traded actively in the nearby March and April contracts. Liquidity in the back-month contracts has yet to pick up. Rollover is when a trader moves his position from the front month contract to another contract further in the future, prior to the expiration of his existing holding. Below is an illustration on how to hold a long MBT position overtime: • In March, a trader buys (going long) April contract (MBTJ5) at $94,308 • In April, the trader enters an offsetting trade, going short on MBTJ5, to close his existing position. He would book a profit or loss, determined by the difference in selling price and purchasing price • Simultaneously, the trader would buy May MBT contract (MBTK5) and re-establish a long position in Bitcoin • In May, the trader will close out MBTK5 (going short) and buy June (MBTM5) • The trader would repeat the above steps, so far as he holds a bullish view Finally, Bitcoin prices are extremely volatile. Holding spot Bitcoin with no leverage could face potential drawdown of 70%-80%. With the leverage in futures, a sharp price move in the wrong direction could quickly deplete the available fund and trigger margin calls. Trader could set up a stop-loss in the buy order, limiting the maximum loss. Hypothetically, he could set the stop-loss at $85,000 when executing long futures at $94,308. If bitcoin moves sharply down, the maximum loss will be $931 (= (94308-85000)*0.1). His margin account will be decreased to $1,144 from $2,075. To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1
Bitcoin 10X Trade-Numbers (1,375% Potential)The low is in and this is the perfect timing for a long-term LONG on Bitcoin (BTCUSDT and other trading pairs). This is for experienced traders and can end up producing huge profits, great growth, amazing results —great entry timing. __ LONG BTCUSDT Leverage: 10X Entry levels: 1) $85,000 2) $83,000 3) $81,000 3) $78,000 Targets: 1) $94,810 2) $98,804 3) $101,058 4) $104,266 5) $108,353 6) $112,859 7) $115,648 8) $120,154 9) $132,643 10) $139,250 11) $158,347 12) $165,345 13) $189,212 14) $200,000 Stop-loss: Close monthly below $78,000 Potential profits: 1375% Capital allocation: 5% ____ Thanks a lot for your continued support. Namaste.
CME:BTC1!Long
by MasterAnanda
15
Bitcoin Update: Critical Support & Elliott Wave Levels To WatchBitcoin here is the thing... 1. For now drop is not impulsive, so can be correction 2. 4th wave pullbacks will ideally stabilize near 50/38.2%. Just testing the important zone 77k-85k 3. Old high and unfilled gap are crucial to cause a bounce, otherwise the major high is in 4. You don't want to see this fourth wave breaking the lowest base channel line, otherwise top is in. 5. Bullish resumption for wave 5 when/if 93700 overlaps 6. This market wont go up unless risk-on is back GH
CME:BTC1!
by ew-forecast
1
BITCOIN FILLED CME GAPToday BTC might have bounced-off a 5 months away gap. OPPORTUNITY : Ideal buy was in the now filled CME GAP. We might revisit these price, so 79100$ remain a good spot for a BUY/LONG alert. General buy zone is from 72.5k$ to 85k$ and should last until approximately mid April . TARGETS : Ideal sell would be 136425$ in late July (23/07). Probable sell zone go from 130k$ to 160k$ and should span from early June to early August . MAXIMAL $ TARGET : - There is still a chance for a powerful leg up, in the event of prices nearing 200k$ , profit will have to be taken regularly and without restraint. MINIMAL $ TARGET : - A faillure to break above last ATH, so 110k$ is definitely a partial sell price (and will react). MAXIMAL time TARGET : - All positions (including altcoins) should be closed before October 2025. Based on Chart Tools : - Fibonacci levels from Retracement and Extension - Expansion/Consolidation periods durations tendencies from this bullrun - Regression over time of said periods - Percent change of said Expansions periods Statistical Arguments : - Past Bitcoin cycles (2016 & 2021) general seasonality - Coinglass's Bull-Market-Peak-Signals had 0/30 indicators showing a top Fundamentals : - Optimistic US inflation - Peace negociations - Pro-business policies - Blockchain technology usage growth - Bitcoin & major crypto adoption in finance Bias : - Up-trend intact - No hard corrections compared to previous bullrun - I guess i could use some profit
CME:BTC1!Long
by LOKEN94
Bitcoin, Mind The Gap (85,720) The massive move initiated from Trumps tweet Sunday about the Crypto Strategic Reserve has left a massive gap on the Bitcoin Futures Chart. Gaps tend to get fill sooner rather than later, with a high 90% hit rate on gaps getting filled. We could see a pullback this week to fill the gap with another run up following back above 90k to save the weekly close ... again. We see confluence with the golden pocket (0.6128 - 0.65 Fib) here on that retracement and also the most amount of volume (VPVR) being traded there. A final test of the demand below 90k, which if shown as support, will lead us back into the range of 90k to 110k.
CME:BTC1!
by Mamocoin
Bitcoin: Short into the Real Bull Market Market sentiment has plummeted to unprecedented lows as Bitcoin approaches critical support zones around the $80K level, coinciding with the CME futures gap. While I have outlined a potential bullish scenario, I remain cognizant of the significant downside risks. A sharp decline could unfold, instilling widespread fear among market participants before the true bull market takes shape. Above, I have illustrated a bullish harmonic pattern, a structure characterized by price contraction followed by an eventual expansion. This formation suggests a retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci levels of both the prevailing uptrend and the resistance formed by the downtrend. What particularly draws my attention is the positioning of the Point of Control (POC)—the most actively traded price within the previous range. This key level represents an area where price may face rejection from the broader value zone. From a psychological standpoint, such a move would create an illusion of stability as Bitcoin retraces toward the $96K– GETTEX:98K region, enticing investors who anticipate a break above $100K and a push toward new all-time highs. However, this very zone could serve as a major liquidity exit point for larger players looking to offload positions and potentially establish short positions against the market. Should this scenario materialize, the likelihood of the harmonic pattern playing out increases, potentially leading to the loss of the value area and forcing Bitcoin to revisit previously established support, where it traded in the value area around the $60K range. This sharp decline would likely convince many that the bull market has ended, triggering an influx of short positions. However, such a setup could ultimately serve as a bear trap, culminating in a dramatic short squeeze and marking the true inception of the next bull run. A decisive reclaim above the POC and key confluence zones would significantly enhance the probability of revisiting all-time highs. Nonetheless, I will be closely monitoring the critical levels detailed in my journal for signs of a broader market reversal. Only time will tell...
CME:BTC1!Short
by afurs1
Bitcoin CME Gap Wars continue with a Bigger New Gap- what next ? Last week we saw the Bitcoin PA Drop down and begin filling that existing CME gap, that had opened in Nov 2024 CME Gaps ALWAYS get filled I said. And they usualy do PA got down to 78600 and bounced back up. It had NOT completely filled the Gap, leaving a gap from 78600 down to 77920. This is a small gap But significant in that the BTC Bulls pushed PA up before the gap was filled....waving 2 fingers at he CME. CME Closes for the Weekend and the price at close on Friday evening was around 85345 I thought we were going to see PA turn and drop back down to complete the Fill..I even had a Spot Buy order down there.. BUT NO - The Bulls arrived again and BANG- When CME opened for the New weeks trading, Bitcoin was up at EXACTLY 95K This had created a NEW gap, with the remains of the older one just below. And so now, Whats next ? Since then, PA dropped to 91635, Filling a more recent smaller gap and has since then, pushed back up higher. When will the Bigger new Gap get filled ? We have a number of possible scenarios and I think my preferred one is that we revisit the Lower levels, Fill the Gap and at the same time, continue to cool off that Still Bearish weekly MACD., whihc, once at Neutral, will have more than enough ability to push to s decent new Cycle ATH in Q4 Another option is that BTC PA ranges high, for Longer and Cools off that Weekly MACD, till around June, Leave the gap open for a later date OR, PA Simply pushes to a New ATH now, exhausts itself and falls hard after, filling the Gap as it plunges to 65K or Lower. Take your pick The MACRO side of Xrypto now is noce but I do worry about how this cold all just make Bitcoin rise to Fast and go POP at the top We need to continue the Slow Steady rise, maintain a balance and act like Adults..Not like Teenagers with a new Bag of Sweets. Be REALLY careful righ tnow, But MAKE MONEY TOO But remain cautious. This Gap WILL GET FILLED ONE DAY
CME:BTC1!
by Orriginal
Bitcon currently filling the CME futures gapWe knew it was likely this would happen at some point in the near future from when the gap was formed and it appears like now is the time. Price action needs to dip as low as $77,920to fill the gap entirely. History tells us the correction should be over with not long after the gap is filled. The only way this isn’t the case is if the top of the bull market was indeed already in, which is a very minute probability but not impossible. *not financial advice*
CME:BTC1!
by DrDovetail
Appetite For Risk Through the Lens of Nasdaq and BitcoinBitcoin tends to track Wall Street sentiment well, particularly compared to the Nasdaq. Growing concerns that Trump's policies will tip the US (and therefore the global economy) into a recession, which currently has the Nasdaq on the ropes and bitcoin getting dragged along for the ride. And there could be further losses to follow, though a cheeky bounce at a minimum could be due first. Matt Simpson, Market Analyst and City Index and Forex.com
CME:BTC1!
by CityIndex
Bitcoin CME GAP Update Don't forget panda fam that still there's a GAP at 82370 - 85920 range area keylevel currently filled by 50%. Possible next scenario on bitcoin confluence with the CME GAP will be CME GAP filling above then continuation drop in worst case scenario since our H4 to Daily Timeframe is on clear bearish bias. 🐻 Bullish case scenario, If we manage to bounce and stay above on LAST MINOR S&R KEYLEVEL and will create a new swing for reversal sign then possibly we can test the recent Major PBr at 96k. 🐂
CME:BTC1!
by cryptopandaph