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BMC1! trade ideas

Analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) Hello, everyone! Today I'd like to share my analysis of the Bitcoin (BTC) market and discuss my observations. It seems that recently we've been experiencing a period of price stability for Bitcoin, and although we remain within a certain range, I see an intriguing perspective. When analyzing global timeframes, one can notice a chart pattern resembling a rising wedge or a bearish flag. This might indicate a possible continuation of the downward trend. However, it's important to keep in mind the current market cycle we are in and exercise caution with short positions. Additionally, it's worth considering that long-term investments might be a more favorable option at present. As you may have noticed, before the rise to the new historical high of around $69,000, we observed a gap at the $9,600 level. Such gaps can have an impact on price movements, and a similar pattern may be unfolding now. Currently, we have an open gap at the $20,500 level, which could be a pivotal moment for future developments. Therefore, I recommend being cautious and attentive when making decisions. In conclusion, I want to emphasize that the cryptocurrency market is always unpredictable, and analysis merely provides a general understanding of potential price movements. It's best to view this information as one of the factors in making investment decisions. Wishing you successful trades and wise choices on this exciting journey in the world of cryptocurrencies!
CME:BTC1!
by CHOWTRADE
Three Driving Forces Behind the Ether-Bitcoin Exchange RateAt a glance: Higher tech stocks tend to boost ETHBTC, while a higher USD tends to depress it Bitcoin supply is perfectly inelastic, which contributes to its high volatility Together, ether and bitcoin account for over 60% of the total value of the world’s cryptocurrencies, but the exchange rate between the two has varied widely over time. So, what drives the Ether-Bitcoin exchange rate? The ETHBTC cross rate responds to many factors, but here are three of them. Technology Stocks On days when the tech heavy Nasdaq 100 index rallies, ether tends to rise versus bitcoin. This may be because ether, which is the currency of the Ethereum smart contract network, has more practical applications in the technology space than bitcoin, which is mainly held as a store of value and a medium of exchange. U.S. Dollar On days when the U.S. dollar is higher, ether tends to underperform versus bitcoin. Bitcoin Supply While ether can be supplied up to 18 million coins per year, bitcoin supply is limited to a maximum of 21 million coins ever, of which about 19 million already exist. Every four years, the supply of new bitcoin drops in half. In the past, halvings have often been preceded by large runups in bitcoin prices and tremendous increases in the amount of revenue that bitcoin miners are paid for matching transactions. Ether is both more volatile than bitcoin and highly correlated to bitcoin. As such, when bitcoin rises or falls versus the U.S. dollar, ether often moves to an even greater degree. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com By Erik Norland, Executive Director and Senior Economist, CME Group *Various CME Group affiliates are regulated entities with corresponding obligations and rights pursuant to financial services regulations in a number of jurisdictions. Further details of CME Group's regulatory status and full disclaimer of liability in accordance with applicable law are available here: www.cmegroup.com **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME:BTC1!Education
by CME_Group
FLAG, VOLUME, AND CME GAPBTC held the 618 on this leg, and has made a new impulse Wave #1. We also closed above the 21D EMA (red). The flag target is about 35,100. After wave 2 consolidation, we should head up through the rest of the volume node we are currently in (gray area). We are also above the 200 SMA, also bullish. (not shown) It's possible the MM's try to pull a liquidation hunt down to touch the yellow line at some point, so I have included a second path to keep this on the radar. Stay sharp! Invalidation for me is breakdown that goes below the yellow TL.
CME:BTC1!Long
by MtGoxFX
$BTC shows life, we called this week, again(pls see profile for info) 4 Hour CRYPTOCAP:BTC was good, not great, but good volume. Good enough at least. Today looks heavy until you compare it to other days. DAILY #BTC closing above orange down trend with good volume = GREAT. Cyan line MUST HOLD for the Bull case. Longer term downtrend line is still intact. Closed leveraged #BTC trade when it was close to it. Expected #Bitcoin move we spoke about a few days ago, done. Now the goalpost has moved up to EARLY next week. CRYPTOCAP:BTC flies or tests much lower support. Technically, bigger move can be @ end of August but we'll see! #crypto
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$BTC major move coming, should get signal this weekPeople just don't get it: Sometimes a catalyst is NOT NEEDED for a big move. #BTC Futures dictate market price, NOT spot. After big moves consolidation takes time, weeks, months even. Added an additional parallel trendline for CRYPTOCAP:BTC (T3). Not crazy about it and let's see how it holds. #Bitcoin closed first time under Trendline 1. - CRYPTOCAP:BTC is currently looking like late June - late July = not great sign. However; RSI stronger positive divergence on 4hr chart. Volume hasn't been heavy for #BTC on this down trend but it has been consistent. Daily #Bitcoin RSI is holding the 50 area = good. ******* We're very close to a deciding move, THIS WEEK! *******
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC futures Entry Stop and Target with money management -Price is in contraction and building shelf at the high - buyers will freak out as stops start getting run and fall back into previous swing - buyers from last low want to step up and buyers that missed the last run will pile in at the higher low. - stop is under known buyers that held and entry is at buyers that lifted price to new high - this is based on principles of supply and demand, buyers and sellers and contraction and expansion - this may work or it may not.
CME:BTC1!Long
by pauliet
Event CME gapsLuna gap remains untouched USDC spot Flight gap up remains untouched 20k-34k PA Range 30k POC acting as resistance Bearish bias since ETF stall out Think, they get pushed back till JAN This month will be the ark rejection if not imagine we keep trend chading up Time will tell these are my parameters I think, DOJ Binnace & tradfi sell off would give blackrock ETF approval a discounted asset and clean up its "accidental" 20k USDC depeg gap Gaps get cleaned up just takes time
CME:BTC1!
by bryptobro
$BTC intraday strength moving over to daily! Let's GO!We warned on CRYPTOCAP:BTC before it hit the staunch 30k mark. Days later on a pullback took a LEVERAGE trade and sold close to the top. (Personal trade. For the Fund we accumulated long ago, much lower) Since then we've been SHORT term bearish on #BTC and waiting for some type of bottom to form. #Bitcoin hasn't shown solid signs until recently. Early this week we mentioned that the 1Hr chart was looking better. Took another personal trade with LEVERAGED CRYPTOCAP:BTC close to trend line and sold near the dashed line. NOW #BTC is stuck between longer term up trend, blue dotted line, trend & short term down trend, orange dotted line. #bitcoin is not looking as bad as many think! Want proof? Look at the 4 hour chart! Am encouraged with CRYPTOCAP:BTC action lately. #BTC moving avgs are HIGHER - yellow box. Holding Trend Line is positive. Buys are coming in, still light though. RSI gaining momentum. #Bitcoin is looking better and better intraday and this strength is moving over to the daily chart. Would like to see a close above light blue dash & the RSI over 50.
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Spring cleaningBTC on CME ($BTC1 ticker). Super nice structure. 1) Price dip and grind below 50m reset the open-interest and attracted a large amount of new short positions. A trap was set. 2) Breaching higher from here confirms past 2 days was a spring: Measured move is to 1.618 fib of $34k and it will get there quick if the move plays out. 3) CME is trading higher than spot: institutional buyers are willing to pay a premium for immediate exposure indicating that smart-money feels a move is imminent. 4) Dollar Index looks terrible and is dropping: giving BTC room to spread it's wings. Happy hunting!
CME:BTC1!Long
by Techemist
1
Futures on BTC and S&P500: The ratio you should considerThe main chart is the ratio between Futures on BTC and S&P500 👉 Bitcoin CME Futures contracts are equal to 5 bitcoin, as defined by the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) 👉 E-mini S&P500 Futures contracts are equal to 50 x S&P500 Index Special remarks 😀 The Support Area and Resistance Areas are as highlighted on the chart. 😊 Since Bitcoin CME Futures were launched in Dec, 2017, S&P500 outperforms BTC to nowadays. 😁 Bitcoin has NO BALANCE SHEET, EARNGINS AND NEVER PAY DIVIDENDS
CME:BTC1!
by Pandorra
2
Current state of $BTC on 1 hourr chartThis is the current state of CRYPTOCAP:BTC using a 1Hr chart. The circles show the resistance and support levels tested. As you can see, the support levels have been tested MUCH MORE than resistance levels. #BTC must move away from this, support, area ASAP. The longer it stays here the weaker the support area gets. For example; think of it as punching holes on the floor. You punch enough holes it'll weaken and eventually you will fall. #Bitcoin 4Hr
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BTC vs AltcoinsCRYPTOCAP:BTC intraday. VS CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL 3 = No #BTC or EETH. 4Hr Chart: What's the 1st thing you notice? (sorry, cannot show the 4 charts here. Pls see profile for more info) Hint, look at those big moves. They were on the SAME DAY! 1Hr Chart: #Altcoins, as stated few days ago, look VERY GOOD. #Bitcoin is not down and out. It is simply RESTING. IT had a nice move this year. However, It needs to energize soon, no later than Friday. At least for the "safest" continuation. - Answer: Trading inverse!
CME:BTC1!
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
BITO’s Bitcoin Equivalent Exposure Reaches All-Time High of 4425Cryptocurrency investors have poured money into bitcoin exchange-traded products at a record pace since BlackRock filed for a spot ETF on June 15. The latest data from K33 Research shows that in the four weeks to July 16, the Bitcoin equivalent exposure of global listed ETPs increased by 25,202 BTC (about 757 million US dollars), reaching 196,824 BTC. This is the second-highest monthly net inflow after the launch of ProShares futures-based ETFs and other futures-based ETFs in October 2021, said Vetle Lunde of K33 Research. Additionally, ProShares’ Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) has an all-time high of 4,425 BTC in Bitcoin-equivalent exposure. BITO provides investors with Bitcoin-related returns through regulated products and holds more than $1 billion worth of CME Bitcoin futures.
CME:BTC1!
by babs7mo
BTC: Crypto Bull Market Appears to Take HoldCME: Micro BTC ( CME:MBT1! ) A month’s ago, I published a trade idea titled “S&P 500: Expensive but Not Overpriced.” The S&P index closed at 4,409.16 on June 16th, placing it at one standard deviation above the three-year mean (µ) of 4027.2 at the time. On July 14th, the S&P settled at 4,505.42, up 100 points and +2.2% within a month. Market data has confirmed my bullish assessment. However, higher prices also mean that the index is getting more expensive now and edging closer to the “overpriced” territory. The S&P reached its all-time high of 4796.56 on January 3rd, 2022. Current price level is just 5.7% below this record. It takes a lot to make the case for a new high. Everything needs to work out just right – inflation, employment, GDP, etc. It probably could happen somewhere down the road when the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. Meanwhile, there are “less expensive” financial instruments to consider if you are looking for ways to allocate your asset. On March 29th, I issued this trade idea – “Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1”. Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. Bitcoin and ETH gained 71% and 39% in Q1, respectively. The main driver was flight-to-safety when a series of US bank failures shocked the financial markets. On July 16th, BTC/USD closed at $30,394, up $2,300 since I wrote the report, and gained 83% year-to-date. While this year’s crypto rebound has been remarkable, spot bitcoin price is still -$38,395, or -55.8% off its record high of $68,789.63. Plotting BTC and E-Mini S&P 500 futures in a 5-year timeframe, we find that both reached their all-time high in the last two years. The S&P experienced a 20% drawdown last year, driven by high inflation and Fed rate hikes. It regained 26% from its October low when the fundamentals were reversed – lower inflation and the potential of Fed Pivot. Bitcoin followed the same general trend as the S&P but is more speculative in nature. Bitcoin rose ten times in one year, only to crush by 80 percent in the following year. Since its November low, bitcoin price has nearly doubled, but it is only halfway to its recent high. The Crypto Market Shrugged off its Biggest Fear In the March 29th trade idea, I expressed concern about the unique risk in the Crypto market – the failure of systemic important infrastructure that could doom the entire market. Last year, the collapses of stablecoin terraUSD, the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate sent spot bitcoin price from FWB:67K all the way to $16K. The entire Crypto market lost $1.4 trillion in market valuation. Last month, the SEC sanctioned the largest crypto Exchange Binance for violations of US securities laws. Bitcoin pulled back a few percentage points and then quickly recovered. Why the market reacted coolly this time around? Unlike the sudden demise of FTX, the SEC charges to Binance were well anticipated. Investors absorbed the news and took actions in an orderly fashion, escaping a market panic. In my view, investors have regained confidence in the crypto market, following all the turmoil. Supporting my view is Coinbase’ YTD performance ( NASDAQ:COIN ). The publicly traded US Crypto Exchange has received multiple regulatory charges and lawsuits. However, its stock is up 214% YTD. Coinbase reportedly had 108 million users in 2022, up from 56 million in 2021. The news headlines around BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF prospects boost institutional investor sentiment, too. Last Thursday, BlackRock's application to offer a spot Bitcoin ETF has been added to the official docket of the SEC as part of its proposed rule change process. The large investor base in both individual and institutional markets will be a big catalyst to lift bitcoin higher in a secular bull market. Micro BTC Futures CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is a low-cost trading tool to participate in the crypto market. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $760. What this means is a 400% leverage built in the futures contract. At market price of $30,235 per bitcoin, the $760 margin is equivalent to about 25% of the contract notional value of $3,023.50. Micro BTC is trading in US dollars that tracks the bitcoin price index. Both the initial investment and the returns are in dollar terms. Traders do not need to worry about the security of their Crypto wallet or forgetting their privacy key. While investing in the CME market, investors could rest assured that their money is free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund. Happy trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
1