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BMC1! trade ideas

Event-Driven Strategy using Bitcoin Weekly FuturesCME: Bitcoin Weekly Futures ( MIL:BFF ) On Thursday, October 10th, The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in August and July. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 2.4% before seasonal adjustment. However, the headline CPI came in ahead of the 0.1% monthly gain and 2.3% year-over-year rate expected by analysts polled by Dow Jones. As a result, both the US equity markets and cryptocurrencies slipped on Thursday. While the year-over-year headline CPI is the lowest since February 2021, digging into the category data reveals sticky inflation. Noticeable data includes: • Food: +2.3% YoY. However, Eggs jumped 39.6%, while “nonconcentrated juices + soft drinks” category was up 15.3%. • Motor vehicle insurance: +16.3% YoY • Video discs + other media: +11.6% YoY • Admission to sporting events: +10.3% YoY • Health insurance: +7.5% YoY High prices affect day-to-day life and contradict the notion of low inflation. The fact is that prices have gone up a lot in the past few years. Even though they rise more slowly now, the absolute price levels remain high. Examples from my personal experiences: • The $9 price tag for 1-1/2 dozen eggs caused me to reduce purchase to 1-dozon for $5. I still remember the good old days of 99-cent per dozen large eggs. • I watched a WNBC match featuring Indianapolis Fever and Catlin Clark in the summer. A seat close by the basketball court costs $200. Adding up hotel stay, fuel cost and a $50 T-shirt, this felt like a vacation budget. • A recent doctor’s visit required copayment of $100. Six months ago, the same clinic charged $75. This is a 33.3% increase. Event to Watch: The Next Fed Rate Decision Retrospectively, it appears that the Federal Reserve acted a bit too aggressively with the supersized 50-bp rate cut in September. With the sticky inflation data, the Fed’s next move on November 7th is uncertain. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, as of October 11th, the futures market expects the Fed to cut 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting, with an 88.4% probability. Gone are the odds of another supersized cut. Meanwhile, the probability of a no-cut increases to 11.6%. www.cmegroup.com Driven by the lowered expectation on Fed rate cuts, on Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.14% to 42,454, and the S&P 500 slipped 0.21% to settle at 5,780. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq composite shaved up 10 points (-0.05%) and closed at 18,282. The cryptocurrency market has a more pronounced reaction. Bitcoin gave up the psychologically important $60K level, lost $1,442 (or -2.36%) and settled at $59,564. Meanwhile, ETHER gave up $57.2 (or -2.38%) and closed at $2,356. However, market sentiments are still very bullish. By Friday, strong Q3 earnings reported by JPMorgan and Well Fargo helped push the stock market up again, with the S&P 500 breaking 5,800 and making its 45th all-time high in 2024. In my opinion, Bitcoin futures would be a good instrument for event-driven trades on the Fed rate decisions, given its higher volatility. Introducing Bitcoin Friday Futures Bitcoin Friday futures ( MIL:BFF ) are weekly, USD-settled contracts that offer a more precise way to gain bitcoin exposure and manage risk relating to such exposure. Each contract represents 1/50 of a bitcoin, ensuring capital efficiency and accessibility. The contract size of BFF is 1/5 of that of Micro Bitcoin Futures ( NYSE:MBC ), which is 1/10 of a Bitcoin. These shorter-dated contracts expire and settle to the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate New York Variant (BRRNY) every Friday at 4:00 p.m. New York time and may track the spot price of bitcoin more closely. Futures contracts traditionally expire on a monthly or quarterly basis, such as BTC and MBT, whereas BFF will settle weekly every Friday. Because of this shorter duration, BFF will have a shorter cost of carry resulting in a price that may more closely track bitcoin’s spot price. Bitcoin futures price = bitcoin spot price + financing costs to carry the position to expiration Two consecutive Fridays will be listed at any time. A new BFF contract will be listed every Thursday at 6:00 p.m. New York time such that market participants will be able to trade the nearest Friday plus the next two Fridays giving traders the choice to hold or not hold exposure over the weekend depending on their preference. Trade Setup using BFF for the FOMC Event The Federal Open Market Committee will release its next rate decision at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, November 7th. The BFF contract expiring Friday, November 8th will begin trading at 6:00 PM Eastern Time on Thursday, October 24th. A trade could be set up on or after October 24th, and closed by November 7th or 8th, after the market reacts to the Fed decision and before contract expiration. While the market overwhelmingly expects the Fed to cut 25 bps, new data could change the expectations dramatically in the next four weeks. The most important data points are: • BLS Nonfarmed Payroll and Unemployment, November 1st • US Presidential Election, November 5th Separately, the next BLS CPI release will be on November 13th, after the BFF November 8th contract. We could use the BFF November 15th contract to trade on that event. As an educational writeup, I do not offer a personal view on the future direction of BFF prices. With basic information provided here, traders could apply their own view to set up a trade on BFF. Generally, if the Fed cuts rates in December, stocks and cryptocurrencies could get a lifting as lower rates reduce the cost of capital. Meanwhile, if the Fed pauses and decides on no-cuts, the uncertainty on interest rate trajectory could cause risk capital to fall. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Editors' picks
CME:MBT1!Long
by JimHuangChicago
4
Closing Short on BTC-USD@earnliners, good. it seems it wotks quite well for D1 timeframe Last date of the dataset: 2024-10-11, Last closing price: 60675.73828125 **Market Trend Analysis for BTC-USD** **Date**: 2024-10-11 **Current Closing Price**: $60675.74 ### Overall Market Sentiment The overall sum of the normalized sums is **0.06243**, suggesting a **neutral** outlook for the projected trading period. This overall sentiment reflects the aggregated influence of market factors and trading strategies employed in the recent days. Sum of normed sums: 0.06242953921124922 Normed sums for D1 to DN:
CME:BTC1!
by earnliners
The #1 Reason Bitcoin Is A Good Buy Eventhough There Is FEARKnowing how to trade is a special skill not everyone has mastered yet. - Yesterday i was on a phone call with a friend of mine and i shared my knowledge of the trading industry - And how i think Bitcoin is going to go.I could hear the fear and doubt in his voice. - I dont mean to judge because honestly trading also scares me but sometimes you have to look past the fear. - Sentiment on this crypto CME:BTC1! is bearish even though i still think its a good long-term buying position. - Remember to rocket boost this content to learn more Disclaimer: Trading is risky, please learn risk management and profit-taking strategies.
CME:BTC1!Long
by lubosi
Elliott Wave Analysis: Bitcoin Consolidation ResumesBitcoin is turning to the downside as the US dollar recovers alongside US yields, which have risen nicely since mid-September. With further dollar strength possible, potentially pushing towards the 102.50 or even 103 levels, this is likely to be bearish for Bitcoin, at least in the short term. Bitcoin has also turned down impulsively from above $67,000, signaling that it remains trapped in a large consolidation phase. While I believe there’s potential for Bitcoin to eventually break to the upside, we will need to be patient until some key levels are taken out. Grega
CME:BTC1!
by ew-forecast
3
The Perfect Time To Buy Bitcoin Using These 3 StepsIt seems obvious to me to buy bitcoin because we are entering a recession and its during election time. - I needed some energy today and so I went to buy some cookies, sat down at home ate the cookies with a drink of tea- no sugar. - I love the taste of raw tea.Its got that good punch! - The global economy is about to go into inflation and you will notice more conflicts, and rate cuts - to support the global dollar system and power during this inflation Bitcoin CME:BTC1! is the key asset to hold - But how do you determine an uptrend? Using the following 3 steps: -The price has to be above the 50 MA -The price should be above the 200 MA -The price should uptrend - Usiing these 3 steps you can see that Bitcoin is going up. You can make a special case for gold as well But I prefer bitcoin. - Trade safe.. Rocket boost this content to learn more. DISCLAIMER: Trading is risky you will lose money whether you like it or not. Learn risk management and profit-taking strategies.
CME:BTC1!Long
by lubosi
BITCOIN Preparing for a Major Move – Key Levels to WatchBitcoin is approaching a critical juncture with potential for a significant breakout or a sharp rejection. Key levels to monitor are the FWB:67K - $68K zone. Here's the game plan: If Bitcoin breaks through the FWB:67K - $68K resistance, we could be looking at a continuation towards a new all-time high. If Bitcoin faces strong rejection at this level, it could trigger a major downside move. A breakdown could lead us to $44K - FWB:42K in the coming days or weeks. Stay vigilant and ready to capitalize on either scenario. Be sure to manage risk and avoid missing out on these potential moves! Follow me for more premium ideas.
CME:BTC1!
by Naveed_Azam_Zarrar
BTC - Fighting Resistance Again another picture perfect prediction thanks to the amazing analytical tools of Viaquant. In our last post we laid out the two scenarios that were most likely to happen with the rate cut decision. The first scenario we laid out was the one that ended up playing out and we got the pop from $60,000 to $64,000. Exactly to our white line of resistance we laid out. Now we are going to closer monitor if sellers heavily defend this area (which could lead to a drop to the CME gap) or if we can break above the white and orange lines which would lead us to the trying to break the most important level of $71.3k on the 3D chart. Once we get a close above that level is when the true fun begins.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT
BTC - Rate Cut ScenariosHello traders, Briefly I wanted to give my thoughts on what we might see develop with the price action of BTC today. No matter what I believe these rate cuts will lead to the continuation of the bull market in the macro structure but it is possible to have a short term pull back before. We are viewing the CME chart as we still have a gap to the downside around $53,000-$54,000. It would be ideal to have price fill this level before breaking out of its multi month falling wedge. Based on the charts there are two main scenarios: The first scenario is we get a pop to the upside to test the white trendline ($64,000-$65,000) and then maybe retrace one more time to fill the gap. The second scenario is we get an initial drop to fill that gap which would put price somewhere between ($52,000-$54,000). Price would retest the green trendline or just fill the gap and then we continue the run to the upside. We no longer have to worry about the downside risk as much once we see daily candles on the CME chart close above the orange line. Once we see a 3D candle close above $71,300 that will give us the confirmation of the next leg of the bull market starting.
CME:BTC1!
by VIAQUANT