SDX1! trade ideas
Dollar stalls at key resistance
As mentioned in our previous post, the United States Dollar Index will likely stall as price is at the major resistance level, which was exactly what happened last week.
If price were to break below the new 104.085 support, the Dollar may potentially fall towards the 102.75 support region.
DXY Looking Fade Above 105.50'sIN thus update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
careful late long entry for DXYmight finally see a relief after good rally, wave 3 almost/in already.
DXY planSomething like this. This is my plan for dollar for march and april . Overall I think it will go lower.
DXY could become bullish after CPI USD broke out of the downward sloping line and is consolidating above it (bullish). I don’t see a reason for not visiting 105 if we get a disappointment on CPI today.
Alternatively, we could retest the descending line, but eventually I am expecting the USD to get to 105 anyway.
DX1 SELLWelcome . Quick deal. An opportunity to sell the US dollar. Rectangular penetration. There is a strong trend. Note: If you like this analysis, please give your opinion on it. in the comments. I will be happy to share ideas, thank you
Dollar at KEY RESISTANCEThe United States Dollar Index continued its ascend, closing off the week at the 105.0 key resistance region.
Price is mildly overextended, combined with resistance, price is likely to stall or retrace.
Has the US Dollar just Bottomed?Hey Traders so today it looks like on the charts the US Dollar could be forming a bottom. It's funny because in the last video I said crude and commodities could be bottoming. But in trading you should never get too bullish or bearish. Never look at the market from only one side because history shows markets are always changing. When we take a risk in my opinion the key is to try and find the right side of the market to be on. Well as of today I am no longer bullish on crude but I am now a US Dollar Bull because of what I have now just seen on the chart!
Enjoy!
Trade Well,
Clifford
When the Dollar fall each time, Gold increases a few foldsMany got distracted when Gold was trading in a range the last few years.
A question for you to ponder over:
Will there be a situation where interest rates continue to rise and yet a lower Dollar? Why?
Let me hear thoughts, I would love to exchange ideas with you.
Included last two videos link below, I explained:
i) Gold is still an inflation hedge
ii) Gold it is also a currency hedge
CME Micro Gold Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.1 = $1
1 = $10
10 = $100
100 = $1,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Dollar climb back towards KEY RESISTANCEIn our previous post, we stated that Dollar will continue towards the upside at the 104.085 region.
As expected, the Dollar Index continues to trade towards the upside towards key resistance at 105.0 region.
The Dollar remains bullish unless the 102.75 support level is breached.
Back to Basics - How I analyse markets..1. I look first at a daily chart and determine what is the trend. For the US dollar Index this is quite an interesting juncture - it has been in a down trend since September 2022, but has recently rallied from 100.69 to about 104.00. Is this just a correction higher or could this be a change of trend?
2. To answer that question I look at longer term charts. Firstly, the monthly chart and I note that the market has recently bounced from its 20-month ma and that the long-term trend for the Dollar remains bullish.
Then I look at the weekly chart and I immediately notice a key week reversal from a couple of weeks ago and I also note that the 103.96 level is a key level of resistance, not only is it the 23.6% retracement of the move down from the September peak, but also the high seen in 2020.
3. So the break of down trend, the key week reversal and the bullish long-term trend suggest that upside pressure for the US Dollar may be attempting to reassert.
4. I go back to the daily chart, and I note the relationship of price to the moving averages (I use 20, 55, 200 day simple moving averages). I note that the market recently tested and held the 20-day ma around 102.50. That both DMI and RSI are neutral, and that cloud resistance also comes in around 104.00. So clearly the 104.00 region on the chart is tough resistance. What I am doing is noting the support and resistance levels.
5. My analysis leads me to the conclusion that the market is in consolidation mode short term, but for now while above the 20-day ma we are willing to give the upside the benefit of the doubt as we have recently seen a key week reversal below the market.
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The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
DXY Testing Pivotal ResistanceIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
DOLLAR looks to have more UPSIDE
In our previous post, we stated that it is difficult for the Dollar to to maintain beyond the 103.225 key resistance without any form of retracement.
The United States Dollar continued the upside earlier on the week, past the 103.225 level but momentum could not sustain and fell back towards the 50 exponential moving average which also coincide with the minor support level at 102.100. Price eventually climbed back and looks to reach the 104.085 level.
DXY 102.50 Pivotal For Further UpsideIn this update we review the recent price action in the Dollar Index and identify the next high probability trading opportunity and price objectives to target
Buy on DXY DipStrong bullish trnd on current Dollar index.
Buy on the dip of the rally.
And take short term profit before the swing high.
Beautiful key week reversal on the US Dollar IndexDisclaimer:
The information posted on Trading View is for informative purposes and is not intended to constitute advice in any form, including but not limited to investment, accounting, tax, legal or regulatory advice. The information therefore has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on Trading View only. All illustrations, forecasts or hypothetical data are for illustrative purposes only. The Society of Technical Analysts Ltd does not make representation that the information provided is appropriate for use in all jurisdictions or by all Investors or other potential Investors. Parties are therefore responsible for compliance with applicable local laws and regulations. The Society of Technical Analysts will not be held liable for any loss or damage resulting directly or indirectly from the use of any information on this site.
could the dollar be topping out?there are a few paths we could take between fib with r1 and fib with pivot. rainbow is confirming progression toward resistance in the dollar. dxy down means in this case broader markes indices futures up and crypto large cap (btcusd bitstamp) up. as btc rebounds expect it to go to close sideways with alts up after it attains same high.
Will the Dollar continue its ascend?The United States Dollar extend towards the upside from the low towards the minor resistance level at 102.75.
It will be difficult for the Dollar to have a confirmation breakout of the key resistance level at 103.225 if price were to continue its upside movement without any form of retracement or consolidation.
Expect the Dollar to trade within the 102.75 region, neutral zone at between 101.48 to 102.1 and bearish when price were to breakout of 101.48 support region.
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT:
Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22
Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22
Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23
Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down
Next downside level is 99.60
FOMC & NFP:
Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely
103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB
103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP
Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP
FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace
OUTLOOK:
Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25
Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level)
Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation
This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
New Bull Market Begins for Stocks and CryptoDollar starts its retracement back to support as risk assets rally to new ATH. The American super power will not be unseated though, this is merely a short term trend.
Volatility is our friend though, lets all go out and play!
